Mechanisms of resilience in cities at different development phases: A system dynamics approach

Abstract

Ecological degradation, environmental pollution, and lack of resources have brought challenges to sustainable urban development, whereas the concept of resilience provides a new normative and analytical tool to investigate urban responses to changes. To explore the mechanisms of resilience in cities at different development phases, this study employs a system dynamics approach to simulate and compare the evolutionary state of different resilient subsystems, including economic, social, ecological and infrastructure modules within cities. Then taking Beijing, Fuzhou, and Urumqi in China, three cities at different development stages as examples, the evolution of urban resilience systems from 2000 to 2035 is simulated under the socio-economic development scenario. The results show urban resilience in the three case study cities evolves in different trajectories with distinctive features showcasing different development phase. This study constructs a resilient city system dynamics model, which provides references for future quantitative resilience simulations and can be adapted and applied to resilience simulations of cities in different contexts. In addition, the case study provides distinct policy recommendations for resilience building in cities at various stages of development and points out key areas for resilience building in different cities.