Оценка сценариев социально-экономического развития приграничных регионов Сибири с преимущественно минерально-сырьевым потенциалом с использованием метода «затраты-выпуск» (на примере Тувы)

Abstract

Government of Tuva adopted a resolution "On the Strategy of socio-economic development of the Republic of Tuva until 2030" (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy), which considers two scenarios for the long-term development of the republic: basic and target. When implementing the basic scenario, the established trend of development of the republic remains, in which the basic social guarantees for the population will be preserved, but at the same time the possibility of implementing large investment and infrastructure projects in the economy is excluded. When implementing the target development scenario, a radical change in the current structure of the economy and infrastructure is expected: the planned construction of the railway along the Kuragino-Kyzyl highway will be continued to Erdenet (Mongolia), which will become through, since it will be included in the trans-Mongolian railway. We have made an assessment of the scenarios of socio-economic development of Tuva using the input-output method. The assessment shows that the projected target indicators, both for the basic and target scenario of the development of the Tuva economy, differ somewhat from the indicators specified in the Strategy. We have assessed additional development factors, such as the growth of mineral extraction in connection with the implementation of the railway construction project to Mongolia, as well as taking into account the growth of GVA in transport and energy. Thus, it can be noted that the intersectoral balance is one of the optimal tools for analyzing and forecasting the economy of regions.