Gas Infrastructure Development Research Articles

Economic Assessment of Scenarios for Reducing Atmospheric Emissions in Krasnoyarsk due to Gas Infrastructure Development and the Use of Alternative Heating Systems

Economic Assessment of Scenarios for Reducing Atmospheric Emissions in Krasnoyarsk due to Gas Infrastructure Development and the Use of Alternative Heating Systems

Assessing Anthropogenic Impacts on Stubb’s Creek Forest Reserve, Nigeria: A Remote Sensing and GIS Approach

Land use-land cover (LULC) changes, particularly in tropical regions like the Niger Delta of Nigeria, are critical drivers of global environmental shifts. This study focuses on the spatial assessment of forest depletion in the Stubb’s Creek Forest Reserve (SCFR) in Akwa Ibom State, amidst rapid infrastructural and industrial developments. The data used includes Landsat 5 of 30m TM, Landsat 7 of 30m TM, and Landsat 8 of 30m ETM for 1986, 2003, and 2018 respectively. Using remote sensing and GIS techniques, the research analyzes LULC dynamics between 1986 and 2018 and projects future trends to 2028. Results reveal a significant depletion of forest covers, particularly the Dense Forest, due to anthropogenic activities like oil and gas exploration and infrastructure development. Over the study period, the Dense Forest cover decreased from 12,296 hectares (41.9% of the total area) in 1986 to 9,149 hectares (31.2%) in 2018. Conversely, built-up areas increased from 1,385 hectares (4.7%) to 3,358 hectares (11.4%) during the same period. The study forecasts a continued decline in forest cover, with a projected Dense Forest cover of 7,474 hectares (25.45%) in 2028. These findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable land management policies to mitigate biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. Remote sensing and GIS tools prove instrumental in monitoring and understanding LULC changes, offering valuable insights for informed decision-making in environmental conservation and land use planning.

Feature extraction and pattern recognition of gas pipeline flow noise signals in a strong noisy background.

The purpose of this study is to put forward a feature extraction and pattern recognition method for the flow noise signal of natural gas pipelines in view of the complex situation brought by the rapid development and expansion of urban natural gas infrastructure in China, especially in the case that there are active and abandoned pipelines, metal and nonmetal pipelines, and natural gas, water and power pipelines coexist in the underground of the city. Because the underground situation is unknown, gas leakage incidents caused by natural gas pipeline rupture occur from time to time, posing a threat to personal safety. Therefore, the motivation of this study is to provide a feasible method to accelerate the aging, renewal and transformation of urban natural gas pipelines to ensure the safe operation of urban natural gas pipeline network and promote the high-quality development of urban economy. Through the combination of experimental test and numerical simulation, this study establishes a database of urban natural gas pipeline flow noise signals, and uses principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the characteristics of flow noise signals, and develops a mathematical model for feature extraction. Then, a classification and recognition model based on backpropagation neural network (BPNN) is constructed, which realizes the detection and recognition of convective noise signals. The research results show that the theoretical method based on acoustic feature analysis provides guidance for the orderly and safe construction of urban natural gas pipeline network and ensures its safe operation. The research conclusion shows that through the simulation analysis of 75 groups of gas pipeline flow noise under different working conditions. Combined with the experimental verification of ground flow noise signals, the feature extraction and pattern recognition method proposed in this study has a recognition accuracy of up to 97% under strong noise background, which confirms the accuracy of numerical simulation and provides theoretical basis and technical support for the detection and recognition of urban gas pipeline flow noise.

Analysis of Occupational Safety and Health (K3) Risk Management in Construction Industry (Case Study: Construction of Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines)

The need for gas in Indonesia is currently quite urgent, but the infrastructure to provide natural gas supplies for industry is inadequate, so the government is encouraging the development of national natural gas infrastructure. In this project, build facilities including Tie-in at the Onshore Receiving Facilities (ORF) and then build a pipeline. The ORF consists of various large instruments, the installation process of which requires the assistance of heavy equipment such as a crane. Instrument installation work at ORF using a crane is included in the critical & extreme risk because the placement will use more than one crane and this work is carried out on a platform. Apart from that, the ORF was built next to an existing LPG station, so this condition has its own potential danger. To find out the source of the biggest risks, risks that may occur, methods of risk mitigation, and the level of effectiveness of the mitigation provided, occupational safety and health risk management analysis could be carried out using the House of Risk (HOR) and Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment & Determining Control (HIRADC) method. Lifting activities on the ORF platform was the biggest source of danger and there were 15 possible risks that may occur, 3 risk agents were in the mobilization of heavy equipment activities (cranes), 5 risk events were in the crane placement activities and 7 risk events were from material transport activities and there were 36 risks agents in it, 9 risk agents for mobilization activities, 11 risk agents for crane placement activities and 14 risk agents for material transport activities. Of the 36 risk agents, 16 of them have high potential, so suggestions for risk mitigation actions were given using the HOR phase II method. By conducting discussions, there were 48 mitigation action plans that were able to reduce the potential of risk agents with 36 main preventive actions, namely suggestions for mitigation actions that had difficulty value 3 or easy to implement. After assessing the recommended preventive actions, an assessment is carried out that there was a reduction in the level of risk using the Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment & Determining Control (HIRADC) method, where there were 3 medium risk categories and 13 low-risk categories. Before recommendations for risk mitigation actions, there were 3 extreme risk categories and 13 high risk categories.

Prospects for Russian Gas in China for the Period until 2035

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the longterm development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the longterm dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country’s participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinсes of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia — 2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

An outlook analysis on China's natural gas consumption forecast by 2035: Applying a seasonal forecasting method

The proposed targets to achieve peak carbon before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 would require China to accelerate the development of natural gas infrastructure. The forecasted future of natural gas consumption in China will not only help learn about the future usage of natural gas but also guide government departments to conduct more scientific planning and management of natural gas production and pipeline channels. Therefore, this paper fully considers the characteristics of natural gas consumption affected by seasonal factors and uses the 2018–2021 quarterly natural gas consumption time-series data to analyze whether natural gas consumption contains trends and seasonality. It is noticeable that seasons impact China's natural gas consumption, so the moving average method is applied to calculate the seasonal index. Based on this, China's natural gas consumption from 2022 to 2035 is forecasted. As results show, China's gas consumption will continue to grow over the next 14 years but at a slower rate. By 2035, it will double from the 2021 level, reaching 765.4 billion cubic meters, but the growth rate will drop to below 4%, entering a period of low growth. Finally, the paper illustrates current situation of natural gas development combined with rationalized suggestions for future natural gas production and energy security in China.

Competition in the conversion of the gas grid: Is the future of biogas biomethane or hydrogen?

Due to the decarbonization of the energy system, natural gas will only play a minor role as an energy source after 2045. To decarbonize the gas supply in the future, there are two options for green gases: hydrogen or biomethane. The injection of green gases into the existing gas infrastructure leads to changes in the gas composition, requiring a consideration of the framework conditions for distribution. Adjustments to the grid for transport may be required. Consequently, this paper presents the main characteristics of hydrogen and biomethane and examines the suitability of the gas infrastructure for their transportation. A case study for the development of gas infrastructure in Germany is presented. The focus is on the further development of biogas, concentrating on the question of which biogas should optimally be upgraded in the future to enable its be distribution in the long term.

A global assessment of the prevalence of current and potential future infrastructure in Key Biodiversity Areas

Infrastructure development is a major threat to biodiversity, leading to habitat loss and fragmentation, increased accessibility and pollution. Key Biodiversity Areas represent the most comprehensive network of important areas for biodiversity and the prevalence of infrastructure in KBAs has not previously been described. Here we examined the prevalence of current and potential future infrastructure within the global network of 15,150 terrestrial KBAs, using a range of open and commercial spatial datasets related to infrastructure. Current infrastructure types analysed included transport, energy, extractives, urban areas, and dams and reservoirs. At least 80 % of KBAs contain infrastructure, and roads occurred in 75.1 % of KBAs. Potential future development of mines, oil and gas infrastructure and powerplants suggests a significant increase in the number of KBAs that may contain these infrastructure types in the future (e.g. by ~292 % for mines)), disproportionately in countries in the Global South. Further work is needed to determine how different infrastructure types affect the species and ecosystems for which KBAs have been identified. More effective application and wider adoption of safeguards are needed to ensure infrastructure development avoids serious negative impacts on biodiversity.

Prospects for Russian gas in China

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390-560 billion cubic meters, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the long-term dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country's participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinces of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

Assessment of Profitability and Impact of Risked Variables on the Viability of Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano Gas Pipeline

The Nigeria Gas Master Plan (NGMP) was developed in 2008 as a result of the Country’s resolve to become a major player in the international gas market as well as to lay a solid framework for gas infrastructure development within the domestic market. The full liberalization of the gas industry translates to a clear definition of the roles of the different stakeholders in the industry, viz. government, institutional financiers, investors, and others. In line with the core mandate of infrastructure development and market expansion of the master plan, the pipeline is identified as a major and significant infrastructure for natural gas transportation and distribution. The South-North pipeline, i.e., Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline option, requiresa significant upfront investment running into billions of dollars and is also characterised by a long lead time as many years may elapse before revenues begin to accrue. Because of the large upfront expenditure required for this project, it is imperative that investors are well informed of the risk to which their capital is exposed. This research seeks to evaluate using appropriate techniques for the economic justification of AKK. In assessing the economics of the AKK pipeline option, the discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) was employed using the following project profit indices viz; NPV, IRR, and payback. Initial investment cost (IIC) comprises the cost of constructing pipelines and compressor stations. Based on industry practice, operations and maintenance costs were assumed to be 2% of IIC, the debt ratio was 60:40, and pipeline capacity was estimated using the Weymouth formula as provided in the pipeline’s rule of thumb. The cost of equity and debt was accounted for using an average weighted cost of capital. Finally, a probabilistic analysis using “@risk” was run on key inputs to test their sensitivities. AKK was estimated to have an annual gas delivery of 2.3bcm, an investment cost of $2.009 billion, and a discount rate of 15% was used. The pipeline was found to be viable, with an NPV of $484 Million, an IRR of 17.7%, and a payback period of 7 years for forty years of operation. The pipeline cash flow model was sensitive to discount rate, CAPEX, and Pipeline capacity. The Ajaokuta- Kaduna-Kano pipeline has a positive NPV of approximately $484.40 million for forty years of operation. This results in an average of about $12.11 million present value of operating net cash flow per annum, which means that the business cash flow can meet all the operating costs and still return a positive net profit.

North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions

Strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth, especially in Asia, could increasingly motivate gas infrastructure development in North America. Nevertheless, opposition to new gas infrastructure is formidable in some of the U.S. states and Canadian provinces that are well positioned to supply LNG to the Asian market. In this paper, we investigate the combined effects of LNG demand growth and export infrastructure restrictions on North American natural gas markets through 2050. To do so, we build a mixed complementarity model with endogenous capacity investments. It is parameterized using publicly available data sources. Our results show that even if new export terminals cannot be constructed on the West Coast, LNG exports largely shift to other regions rather than suffer an overall decline. Increasing external demand for LNG puts upward pressure on regional prices in North America, and directs production and pipeline flows toward the regions that export LNG.

A new blockchain system design to improve the supply chain of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies – a case study in the oil and gas sector

PurposeThis paper aims to propose a new blockchain system design to improve engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies’ supply chain for constructing oil and gas infrastructure, by mitigating cost and time inefficiencies.Design/methodology/approachA case study analyses the supply chain of a sample EPC company. First, a literature review is conducted to explore the subject in academic literature. Second, information flows are mapped using responsible, accountable, consulted and informed analysis and cross-functional process mapping. Third, inefficiencies are identified. Fourth, the root causes of the inefficiencies are pinpointed using fishbone and five-times-why analysis. Fifth, a comparison is made between the linear and the blockchain information system via force-field analysis. Sixth, a specific blockchain system design is identified based on three external expert interviews. Finally, the new system is designed and a cost-benefit analysis is conducted.FindingsMajor cost and time inefficiencies in oil and gas infrastructure developments are caused by a poor information flow in the supply chain. The new blockchain system design is a feasible solution, reducing cost inefficiencies by 12.4% and operation lead-times by 36.5%.Research limitations/implicationsThe confidentiality of the sample EPC company’s information represents a limitation.Originality/valueThe research introduces a new blockchain system design, reducing cost and time inefficiencies in the project-development supply chain, including implementation processes.

The Uncertain World of Natural Gas Infrastructure

A very interesting combination of court decisions came out in June, regarding natural gas infrastructure, its justification and the rights of its developers. One court decision would make it more difficult to prove the need for a natural gas pipeline. The other decision would make it easier for a pipeline with a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) certificate to condemn rights‐of‐way, even across state land when the state does not support the build‐out of natural gas pipelines. In other words, one decision is restrictive for new pipeline infrastructure, while the other decision is supportive. The dueling decisions impact two significant issues regarding the authorization of new natural gas infrastructure development; (1) whether firm contracts are sufficient to prove supply need, and (2) how broad the right of eminent domain conferred by a FERC certificate can be.

DIVERSIFICATION OF GAS SUPPLIES AS A CORNERSTONE OF GAS SECURITY IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THREE SEAS INITIATIVE

The article overviews approaches to the diversification of gas supplies in the framework of the Three Seas Initiative. The modern geopolitical situation in Eastern and Central Europe is characterized by transformation processes in the energy sector. Due to the implementation of decarbonization policy in the European Union and subsequent shift from coal as a main energy source, a need in alternative fuel sources, such as natural gas, emerges. Therefore, a significant increase in natural gas consumption is expected, which raises a number of issues, such as dependence on a single gas supplier and orientation of the EU’s gas transmission system in East-West direction only. This issue is crucial for Eastern and Central European states, due to the underdeveloped gas infrastructure in the region and heavy dependence on a single gas supplier, such as Russia or Turkey. Hence, the Three Seas Initiative is considered as a powerful tool, designed to develop energy, transport and digital infrastructure of the region in the North-South direction, where one of the most potentially promising projects within the framework of the Three Seas Initiative is represented by the development of gas infrastructure, aimed at solving the diversification of supplies in the gas market in Eastern and Central Europe. The implementation of developed gas infrastructure and diversification of gas supplies consists of several regional projects that are relevant for those countries in the region in which they are implemented in particular and for all member states of the Three Seas Initiative in general. The main purpose of the implementation of these projects is the creation of a unified natural gas transportation infrastructure in Eastern Europe along the North-South axis. The result of such a grand reorganization in the field of gas supplies to Europe will be an increase in the number of independent suppliers in the European gas market and a decrease in the dependence of the EU countries on gas supplies from Russia. In the article, the author traced in detail the tendency of the formation of energy infrastructure along the North-South axis with focus on the projects that are being implemented by each of the participating countries within the framework of the Three Seas Initiative. This approach allows to assess the scale and integrity of the gas transportation infrastructure, that is being created in the Eastern Europe region and its contribution to the common European energy security policy.

Olena Stepaniv Contribution to the Development of Transport Geography and Geologistics in Ukraine

Peculiarities of life, military, the diplomatic activity of Doctor of Sciences in Geography, O. I. Stepaniv, as well as her scientific achievements as a Ukrainian geographer and geologist, are revealed. Olena Stepanov was the first woman in Ukraine and the world – a military officer in the Ukrainian Sich Riflemen (Ukrainski Sichovi Striltsi, USS) and the Ukrainian Galician Army (Ukrainska Halytska Armiia, UHA) during the First World War and the Ukrainian Liberation War of 1917–1921, a diplomatic official of the Western Ukrainian People’s Republic and the Ukrainian People’s Republic. Having a doctorate in geography and history, she made a significant contribution to the development of Ukrainian geographical science, including economic and social geography, as well as transport geography and modern understanding of geologistics. The last two areas of geographical science are most fully disclosed in her work “Modern Lviv”, which provides a comprehensive description of the transport infrastructure of Lviv and Lviv region and its importance in the transport system of Ukraine, in particular, emphasizes the central position of Lviv as a transport and logistics hub on the trans-European way connecting the Baltic and Black Seas; identified the main transport routes of Lviv region, important on a national scale; in addition to the main roads, regional and local ones were identified and characterized. The characteristics of transport routes were combined with the indication of the most significant industrial enterprises of Lviv region; tourist and recreational areas and centres which were located on the ways of transport routes were indicated, as well as the tourist specialization of these centres (in textbooks on the geography of transport of the Soviet era, it was not mentioned at all); such transport and logistics indicators as road congestion, traffic intensity on them were used, as well as their historical names were given and their significance in the past was revealed. O. I. Stepaniv’s scientific works remain relevant today. This applies not only to the problems of the geography of transport communication in modern Lviv but also to current issues of international logistics, in particular, Ukraine’s participation in the Baltic-Black Sea transport and logistics integration system. O.I. Stepaniv’s scientific works on transport geography are of direct importance to the most modern EU project in the field of transport and logistics – the Three Seas Initiative (TSI). The recent TSI Summit in Tallinn (October 19–20, 2020) highlighted the impact of the TSI on the entire Baltic-Adriatic Black Sea region. TSI is open to countries – strategic partners of the EU, including Ukraine. Although the latter is not a member of the EU, it was invited to the first TSI summit in 2016 andis currently an active participant in many projects under this Initiative, without having formal membership in the TSI. Ukraine should continue to cooperate with TSI, especially with Poland, in such important infrastructure projects as the Gdansk-Odesa highway, the railway Viking project, the development of gas infrastructure within the North-South corridor (involving Ukrainian underground storage facilities of “blue fuel”), etc.

Challenges and prospects of developing city gas to reduce imported LPG in Indonesia

Indonesia has natural gas potential that can be developed through the city gas program. Although the city gas program has been designed since 2009, its effectiveness in addressing the critical LPG issues is still insignificant. The achievement of the city gas development target in 2019 has only reached 12% of the government’s target of 4.7 million SR (house connections) in 2025. We conducted content analysis and in-depth studies on several legal products and literature related to opportunities and challenges in the city gas development. We found that the main problem was the limited investment from both the government budget and the corporate budget. Challenges of city gas development are low project economics, delays in upstream natural gas projects and natural gas infrastructure development, and low customer satisfaction. Meanwhile, obstacles to city gas development are the length of the licensing process, social problems, unclear KPBU (Community - Business Entity Cooperation) scheme, and undefined handling of LPG subsidy (3 Kg). This finding is expected to be taken into consideration in the formulation of a more effective and massive city gas development strategy in the future.

Development of Natural Gas Infrastructure to Enhance National Energy Security in Indonesia

The current use of energy in Indonesia highly still depends on fossil-derived energy. Thus, policies to reduce the use of fossil energy towards the use of new and renewable energy (NRE), which is more environmentally friendly, receive great concern. The government encourages the use of low-carbon technology following up the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 29% (without assistance) and by 41% (with international assistance) under Business as Usual (BAU) by 2030. However, accelerating the utilization of renewable energy still faces some obstacles because the economic price of NRE is still more expensive than that of fossil energy. The most likely transition policy is to substitute the use of oil and fuel to natural gas through improving natural gas infrastructure. This transition is following the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) which guides the achievement of global goals until 2030, namely to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. The development of natural gas infrastructure is currently in an early stage (point to point scheme) and is expected to develop into a hub and spoke scheme towards multiple networks. The more developed infrastructure will further enhance national energy security in the long run.

Reviewing threats to wild rhodiola sachalinensis, a medicinally valuable yet vulnerable species

Occurring in China, DPR Korea, Japan, and Russian Federation and classified in the Red List of Chinese Flora as a vulnerable species, Rhodiola sachalinensis Boriss. is used increasingly in cosmetics, dietary supplements, and Traditional Chinese Medicines (TCMs). The aim of this study was to evaluate the (i) conservation status, harvesting and trade levels of R. sachalinensis, (ii) current state of experimental and commercial farming, and (iii) evidence of substitution or interchangeable use of R. sachalinensis with other Rhodiola species. We assessed data from multiple disciplines and languages including studies on R. sachalinensis biology and ecology, information on impacts of wild harvest, management measures, and current levels of cultivation. Our assessment shows that while R. sachalinensis is increasingly produced by cultivation, wild populations are decreasing and face multiple threats. These include (a) habitat loss including due to oil and gas infrastructure development on Sakhalin island, (b) climate change impacts on alpine ecosystems, and (c) overexploitation of wild plants to satisfy the growing commercial demand. Assessments of the conservation status of R. sachalinensis should commence in each Range State, as well as resource assessments and monitoring of harvesting and trade of wild R. sachalinensis. Even with increased reliance on cultivation, biodiversity conservation, and genetic diversity in wild populations are relevant to future use of this species.

North American natural gas market and infrastructure developments under different mechanisms of renewable policy coordination

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) accelerate renewables deployment but their impact on fuel-fired plants remains ambiguous. North American natural gas consumption has been growing due to its decreasing cost in North America, policy initiatives, and its relatively low CO2 emissions rate compared to coal. In this paper, we study the implications for the natural gas sector of more stringent RPS under different coordination schemes in an integrated North American natural gas market. The scenarios assume that Renewable Energy Certificates generated in each region are traded 1) among all countries, 2) only within each country, and 3) only within model regions. We implement the three policies in four different energy and electricity models to generate projections of future natural gas consumption. Subsequently, we feed regional or country-level consumption changes of each model in each scenario to the North American Natural Gas Model. We find that lower RPS coordination among regions results in increased U.S. natural gas exports to Canada, increased U.S. natural gas prices, and decreased net U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico in the long term. Moreover, international coordination of RPS in the electricity sector leads to smaller price discrepancies in the U.S. natural gas market when compared to the reference scenario.

Natural gas infrastructure development in North America under integrated markets

The exploitation of low-cost shale gas in the Marcellus Formation, the deregulation initiatives in the U.S. and Mexico, and the emergence of natural gas as a bridging fuel to a low-carbon economy has fueled the growth of North American natural gas production, which is projected to keep growing in the mid-term to support the increasing LNG exports. Greater introduction of renewables and deeper electrification suppress both supply and demand for natural gas in the long-term. The long lead times of pipeline operation and field exploitation render the timing of natural gas abatement critical to natural gas infrastructure stakeholders. Full integration of the U.S., Canadian, and Mexican natural gas markets implies that the abatement trajectories of the three countries are tightly linked. This paper studies the development of the integrated North American natural gas markets and infrastructure under different assumptions on resource availability, technological progress, and global crude oil prices. We quantify the impact of each scenario by using the North American Natural Gas Model. Our analysis shows that cross-border U.S.-Mexico trade is more resilient under all three shocks compared to U.S.-Canada trade. Increasing Mexican production could drive the growth of the domestic Mexican market instead of reducing U.S.-Mexico trade.