Developing Mitigation Plans Research Articles

Use of HAND Model for Estimating Flood-Prone in Serawai Basins Base on Remote Sensing and Sistem Information Geography

A river basin's flood-prone mapping is essential for managing flood risks, developing mitigation plans, and developing flood forecasting and warning systems, among other things. This research uses the HAND model to estimate the level of flood-prone and its distribution in watersheds. The method used is survey and image interpretation. The data used is DEM imagery with a resolution of 10 meters. Data analysis uses spatial analysis, which includes elevation, hydrological analysis, fill, flow accumulation, flow direction, flow distance, and minus statistical analysis. The results showed that the Serawai watershed has five classes: very prone, prone, moderate, not prone, and very not prone. The very prone class has an area of 112,213.82 ha (65.41%), including Tontang, Sedaha, Nanga Serawai, Begori, Nanga Lekawai, Surga, Buntut Ponte, and Nanga Segulang village. The prone class has an area of 29,356.65 ha (17.14%), spread across the village of part of Beurgea, part of Nanga Segulang, Nanga Jelundung, and part of Tontang village. The moderate level has an area of 18,971.52 ha (11.08%), spread across Tontang, part of Nanga Jelundung, and part of Baras Nabun village. The area with a not-prone is 7,996.20 ha (4.67%), spread across Baras Nabun and parts of Nanga Jelundung village. For areas that are very not prone, they have an area of 3,004.20 (1.75%), spread over parts of the villages of Sedaha, parts of Baras Nabun, and Nanga Jelundung. Based on the research results, it can be concluded that the HAND Model is an effective and easy-to-use model for estimating flood-prone areas.

The Hazard Index and Efforts to Mitigate Extremed Wave and Abration Disaster in Teluk Pakedai District

Coastal areas face threats from hydro-oceanographic activities and human actions, leading to disasters such as extreme waves and coastal erosion. In Indonesia, particularly in Teluk Pakedai sub-district, these issues are prominent. Effective mitigation strategies tailored to the region's characteristics are essential. This research aims to analyze extreme wave and abrasion threats in Teluk Pakedai and develop mitigation plans. Using the Indeks Ancaman Bahaya Gelombang Ekstrim dan Abrasi (GEA) method outlined in BNPB's 2012 guidelines, factors like wave height, ocean currents, beach typology, vegetation, and coastline shape will be assessed and mapped using ArcGIS. From 2018-2023, significant erosion and accretion were observed, with the highest erosion in Kuala Karang Village (16.93 Ha) and the most accretion in Tanjung Bunga Village (57.79 Ha). Seven villages face medium to high danger from these threats. Recommended mitigation strategies include mangrove planting, constructing breakwaters, establishing early warning systems, and enhancing public awareness of extreme wave and abrasion risks.

Noise accelerates embryonic development in a key crab species: Morphological and physiological carryover effects on early life stages

Anthropogenic noise is considered one important global pollutant. The impact of noise on marine invertebrates has been less assessed. The present study evaluated the chronic effect of the motorboat noise obtained from a lagoon's soundscape, the natural habitat of the key crab Neohelice granulata, on its whole embryonic development, considering morphological and physiological carryover effects on embryos and hatched larvae. Results demonstrated that embryonic development was shortened under noise exposure. The effects on advanced embryos, larvae and adult females were: increased heartbeats and non-viable eggs, and decreased fecundity. Biochemical responses showed lipid peroxidation in embryos while antioxidant enzymes were activated in larvae and adults, indicating a counteracting effect related to the life stage. The negative effects on fitness offspring may imply ecological consequences at the population level. Results are discussed in terms of the ecosystem engineer species studied and the habitat, a MAB UNESCO Reserve lagoon, suggesting the urgent need to develop mitigation plans.

Headwinds in the heartland? Hazard planning lessons from six inland jurisdictions in the southern plains

The recent 20th anniversary of the adoption of the United States’ Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA) offers an occasion to reflect on the performance of the intergovernmental policy framework it created to incentivize local hazard mitigation planning. Researchers know little about the status of local hazard mitigation planning in oft-overlooked inland communities and they know little about high-quality mitigation planning in the middle of the country. This study helps fill these gaps with a multistate, six-county comparative case study approach in the Southern Plains using data collected from the evaluation of plan documents and interviews with key informants. Our three core findings are: (1) the hazard mitigation plans tend to be of low to mediocre quality; (2) the networks of hazard mitigation stakeholders vary widely in composition and leadership, some replicating emergency management networks suited to preparedness and response and some much better suited to the quite different demands of long-term mitigation work; and (3) the types of consultants and their roles also varied across the six cases, bringing expertise characteristic of narrow emergency management perspectives to more integrated expertise in long-range land use and infrastructure planning perspectives. Without the requirements of the DMA, it is difficult to imagine that thousands of communities would have dedicated millions of dollars and untold hours to develop mitigation plans. Yet, as our findings show, the DMA is likely in need of a major overhaul, in spite of recent efforts like the new Federal Emergency Management Agency Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program.

First national assessment of wildlife mortality in Ecuador: An effort from citizens and academia to collect roadkill data at country scale.

Ecuador has both high richness and high endemism, which are increasingly threatened by anthropic pressures, including roads. Research evaluating the effects of roads remains scarce, making it difficult to develop mitigation plans. Here, we present the first national assessment of wildlife mortality on roads that allow us to (1) estimate roadkill rates per species, (2) identify affected species and areas, and (3) reveal knowledge gaps. We bring together data from systematic surveys and citizen science efforts to present a dataset with 5010 wildlife roadkill records from 392 species, and we also provide 333 standardized corrected roadkill rates calculated on 242 species. Systematic surveys were reported by ten studies from five Ecuadorian provinces, revealing 242 species with corrected roadkill rates ranging from 0.03 to 171.72 ind./km/year. The highest rates were for the yellow warbler Setophaga petechia in Galapagos (171.72 ind./km/year), the cane toad Rhinella marina in Manabi (110.70 ind./km/year), and the Galapagos lava lizard Microlophus albemarlensis (47.17 ind./km/year). Citizen science and other nonsystematic monitoring provided 1705 roadkill records representing all 24 provinces in Ecuador and 262 identified species. The common opossum Didelphis marsupialis, the Andean white-eared opossum Didelphis pernigra, and the yellow warbler Setophaga petechia were more commonly reported (250, 104, and 81 individuals, respectively). Across all sources, we found 15 species listed as "Threatened" and six as "Data Deficient" by the IUCN. We recommend stronger research efforts in areas where the mortality of endemic or threatened species could be critical for populations, such as in Galapagos. This first country-wide assessment of wildlife mortality on Ecuadorian roads represents contributions from academia, members of the public, and government, underlining the value of wider engagement and collaboration. We hope these findings and the compiled dataset will guide sensible driving and sustainable planning of infrastructure in Ecuador and, ultimately, contribute to reduce wildlife mortality on roads.

Modeling COVID-19 infection dynamics and mitigation strategies for in-person K-6 instruction.

U.S. school closures due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to extended periods of remote learning and social and economic impact on families. Uncertainty about virus dynamics made it difficult for school districts to develop mitigation plans that all stakeholders consider to be safe. We developed an agent-based model of infection dynamics and preventive mitigation designed as a conceptual tool to give school districts basic insights into their options, and to provide optimal flexibility and computational ease as COVID-19 science rapidly evolved early in the pandemic. Elements included distancing, health behaviors, surveillance and symptomatic testing, daily symptom and exposure screening, quarantine policies, and vaccination. Model elements were designed to be updated as the pandemic and scientific knowledge evolve. An online interface enables school districts and their implementation partners to explore the effects of interventions on outcomes of interest to states and localities, under a variety of plausible epidemiological and policy assumptions. The model shows infection dynamics that school districts should consider. For example, under default assumptions, secondary infection rates and school attendance are substantially affected by surveillance testing protocols, vaccination rates, class sizes, and effectiveness of safety education. Our model helps policymakers consider how mitigation options and the dynamics of school infection risks affect outcomes of interest. The model was designed in a period of considerable uncertainty and rapidly evolving science. It had practical use early in the pandemic to surface dynamics for school districts and to enable manipulation of parameters as well as rapid update in response to changes in epidemiological conditions and scientific information about COVID-19 transmission dynamics, testing and vaccination resources, and reliability of mitigation strategies.

Sensitivity and Calibration of Three‐Dimensional SPH Formulations in Large‐Scale Landslide Modeling

AbstractNumerical prediction of landslide runout and deposition is important for estimating landslide risk and developing mitigation plans. The choice of a suitable model and its parameters and a confident calibration strategy are crucial for numerical simulations. Here, we evaluated two constitutive models with a three‐dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method by simulating the catastrophic 11 October 2018 Baige landslide. The results indicate that both the soil mechanic and fluid models can capture the dynamic runout and deposition morphology while using different values of input parameters. A point‐wise comparison of deposit elevation can minimize the calibration error. Numerical models were constrained accurately by utilizing both the static observation data and dynamic seismic signals. The effects of friction on deep‐seated landslides motion and deposition are more significant than cohesion. The 3D model includes the effects of shear stresses and velocities inside the material body, resulting in a reduced friction coefficient compared to the 2D model (e.g., depth‐averaged model). Our study highlights the potential of the 3D SPH method for modeling large‐scale complex landslides.

Statistical Modeling for Traffic Noise: The Case of Kirkuk City

The auditory system can suffer from exposure to loud noise and human health can be affected. Traffic noise is a primary contributor to noise pollution. To measure the noise levels, 3 variables were examined at 25 locations. It was found that the main factors that determine the increase in noise level are traffic volume, vehicle speed, and road functional class. The data have been taken during three different periods per day so that they represent and cover the traffic noise of the city during heavy traffic flow conditions. Analysis of traffic noise prediction was conducted using a simple linear regression model to accurately predict the equivalent continuous sound level. The difference between the predicted and the measured noise shows that the model's accuracy is 93.93%. The results show the effectiveness of the suggested method and confirm its applicability in developing mitigation plans for both existing and future roadways. To test the effectiveness of the suggested method, the selected location of different road functional classifications of Kirkuk city in Iraq was studied. It was noticed that in all the selected sites, the noise level was observed to be above the permissible noise standard of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Snakebite incidence in rural sub-Saharan Africa might be severely underestimated

Snakebites in sub-Saharan Africa account for 20,000 to 32,000 annual deaths. But since most data is retrieved from hospital or incomplete central databases, and many victims do not seek hospital treatment or prefer traditional remedies, the current numbers are likely underestimated. In order to reduce snakebite incidence by 50% by 2030 as targeted by World Health Organization, it is crucial to accurately quantify and understand the current rates of snakebite incidence, which can only be reliably measured through household surveys. In this study, we interviewed 1037 households in nine communities in Cabo Delgado, northern Mozambique. Our aim was to quantify true snakebite incidence and under-reporting, by comparing the total number of snakebites reported to our team during household surveys with the subset of reports that reached health centers. We additionally quantified snakebite incidence in terms of species, location of the attack, type of treatment, season, and gender of the victims. These data allow us to propose conservative extrapolations of snakebite incidence and mortality for the province of Cabo Delgado and for Mozambique. Of all snakebites reported in the surveys (N = 296), most incidents were treated exclusively by traditional doctors (N = 174; 59%) and 25% were not seen by any doctor. Most bites occurred on farms and during the rainy season. Using a conservative estimation where we assume our results to be extrapolatable for the whole of rural Mozambique, but considering snakebites in urban areas to be inexistent, we propose that in Cabo Delgado, every year at least 6124 people are victims of snakebites, of which at least 791 result in deaths. In Mozambique, we extrapolated that every year at least 69,261 people are victims of snakebite, of which at least 8950 result in death (one in eight snakebites is fatal). Our estimates are the first for Mozambique based on data retrieved in the country, and despite being an underestimation they increase snakebite incidence levels ten-fold and the number of deaths by 30-fold. Urgent and widespread surveys are needed to further assess the full extent of snakebites in sub-Saharan Africa, explore regional patterns and develop mitigation plans.

The TECC Clinic: An innovative resource for mitigating technology-enabled coercive control

This article describes the development and preliminary evaluation of the Seattle-based Technology-Enabled Coercive Control (TECC) Clinic, a free consultative clinic that pairs a volunteer technologist, trained in the dynamics of coercive control, with a survivor experiencing TECC. One of the first support services of its kind, the TECC Clinic is a community-based and trauma-informed resource in which volunteer technologists assist survivors with identifying points of compromise on their device(s) and developing mitigation plans. We situate the development of the TECC Clinic alongside a needs assessment that was conducted as part of an ongoing community-based participatory action research project. The needs assessment identified an inconsistency among victim advocates regarding technology-specific safety planning knowledge and gaps in resources for survivors experiencing technology-enabled coercive control (TECC). Preliminary analysis following a 6-month pilot of the TECC Clinic illustrates the effectiveness of the TECC Clinic for increasing survivors' technology-specific safety planning knowledge and its potential as a valuable support service for survivors experiencing TECC.

The Virtual Corrosion Engineer

The conventional corrosion management process consists of defining the expected process conditions, identifying potential corrosion threats, and estimating their likely rate, then using that information to develop mitigation plans and inspection schedules. The Virtual Corrosion Engineer (VCE) project aims to improve this process by utilizing online monitoring data to automate the running of the best available corrosion models and provide a continuously updated dashboard in real time. This paper provides an overview of the VCE, together with a brief discussion of the underlying models for two exemplar damage mechanisms, High-Temperature Hydrogen Attack (HTHA) and Under Deposit Corrosion (UDC) in steam generators.

Characterizing the Effects of Explosive Ordnance Disposal Operations on the Human Body While Wearing Heavy Personal Protective Equipment.

To provide a comprehensive characterization of explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) personal protective equipment (PPE) by evaluating its effects on the human body, specifically the poses, tasks, and conditions under which EOD operations are performed. EOD PPE is designed to protect technicians from a blast. The required features of protection make EOD PPE heavy, bulky, poorly ventilated, and difficult to maneuver in. It is not clear how the EOD PPE wearer physiologically adapts to maintain physical and cognitive performance during EOD operations. Fourteen participants performed EOD operations including mobility and inspection tasks with and without EOD PPE. Physiological measurement and kinematic data recording were used to record human physiological responses and performance. All physiological measures were significantly higher during the mobility and the inspection tasks when EOD PPE was worn. Participants spent significantly more time to complete the mobility tasks, whereas mixed results were found in the inspection tasks. Higher back muscle activations were seen in participants who performed object manipulation while wearing EOD PPE. EOD operations while wearing EOD PPE pose significant physical stress on the human body. The wearer's mobility is impacted by EOD PPE, resulting in decreased speed and higher muscle activations. The testing and evaluation methodology in this study can be used to benchmark future EOD PPE designs. Identifying hazards posed by EOD PPE lays the groundwork for developing mitigation plans, such as exoskeletons, to reduce physical and cognitive stress caused by EOD PPE on the wearers without compromising their operational performance.

Methods for microplastic sampling and analysis in the seawater and fresh water environment.

Microplastic (plastic smaller than 5mm in size) is ubiquitous around the world both in the ocean and the freshwater system. Due to their potential serious negative impact on marine organisms and human beings, marine microplastics have attracted worldwide attention in the past decade. Information and knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of marine microplastics are crucial for accurately assessing our current and future environmental health conditions. This is also important for developing mitigation plans and measures to protect our environment. Since the measured microplastic pollution level is closely related to the sampling methods and identification techniques, it is important to employ standardized sampling and analysis operation procedures for cross-comparison. In this chapter, we present the basic sampling, sample pretreatment and microplastic identification techniques involved in microplastic pollution assessment and discuss the adaptability of different sampling and pretreatment methods. The pros and cons of different techniques are also discussed.

Potential impacts of cool and green roofs on temperature-related mortality in the Greater Boston region

Many cities are developing mitigation plans in an effort to reduce the population health impacts from expected future increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. To inform heat mitigation and adaptation planning, information is needed on the extent to which available mitigation strategies, such as reflective and green roofs, could result in significant reductions in heat exposure. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we analysed the impact of green and cool (reflective) roofs on the urban heat island (UHI) and temperature-related deaths in the Greater Boston area (GBA) and New England area (NEA) in summer and winter. In the GBA, green and cool roofs reduced summertime population-weighted temperature by 0.35 °C and 0.40 °C, respectively. In winter, green roofs did not affect temperature, whereas cool roofs caused a temperature reduction of 0.40 °C. In the NEA, the cooler summers induced by green and cool roofs were estimated to reduce the heat-related mortality rates by 0.21% and 0.17%, respectively, compared to baseline. Cool-roof-induced temperature reduction in winter could increase the cold-related mortality rate by 0.096% compared to baseline. These results suggest that both green and cool roofing strategies have the potential to reduce the impact of heat on premature deaths. Additionally, the differing effects in winter suggest the need for a careful consideration of health trade-offs in choosing heat island mitigation strategies.

Characterization of Urban Heat and Exacerbation: Development of a Heat Island Index for California

To further evaluate the factors influencing public heat and air-quality health, a characterization of how urban areas affect the thermal environment, particularly in terms of the air temperature, is necessary. To assist public health agencies in ranking urban areas in terms of heat stress and developing mitigation plans or allocating various resources, this study characterized urban heat in California and quantified an urban heat island index (UHII) at the census-tract level (~1 km2). Multi-scale atmospheric modeling was carried out and a practical UHII definition was developed. The UHII was diagnosed with different metrics and its spatial patterns were characterized for small, large, urban-climate archipelago, inland, and coastal areas. It was found that within each region, wide ranges of urban heat and UHII exist. At the lower end of the scale (in smaller urban areas), the UHII reaches up to 20 degree-hours per day (DH/day; °C.hr/day), whereas at the higher end (in larger areas), it reaches up to 125 DH/day or greater. The average largest temperature difference (urban heat island) within each region ranges from 0.5–1.0 °C in smaller areas to up to 5 °C or more at the higher end, such as in urban-climate archipelagos. Furthermore, urban heat is exacerbated during warmer weather and that, in turn, can worsen the health impacts of heat events presently and in the future, for which it is expected that both the frequency and duration of heat waves will increase.

Direct local building inundation depth determination in 3-D point clouds generated from user-generated flood images

Abstract. In recent years, the number of people affected by flooding caused by extreme weather events has increased considerably. In order to provide support in disaster recovery or to develop mitigation plans, accurate flood information is necessary. Particularly pluvial urban floods, characterized by high temporal and spatial variations, are not well documented. This study proposes a new, low-cost approach to determining local flood elevation and inundation depth of buildings based on user-generated flood images. It first applies close-range digital photogrammetry to generate a geo-referenced 3-D point cloud. Second, based on estimated camera orientation parameters, the flood level captured in a single flood image is mapped to the previously derived point cloud. The local flood elevation and the building inundation depth can then be derived automatically from the point cloud. The proposed method is carried out once for each of 66 different flood images showing the same building façade. An overall accuracy of 0.05 m with an uncertainty of ±0.13 m for the derived flood elevation within the area of interest as well as an accuracy of 0.13 m ± 0.10 m for the determined building inundation depth is achieved. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method can provide reliable flood information on a local scale using user-generated flood images as input. The approach can thus allow inundation depth maps to be derived even in complex urban environments with relatively high accuracies.

Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

ABSTRACTTropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.

Modelling tropical cyclone hazards under climate change scenario using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones are a common and devastating natural disaster in many coastal areas of the world. As the intensity and frequency of cyclones will increase under the most likely future climate change scenarios, appropriate approaches at local scales (1-5 km) are essential for producing sufficiently detailed hazard models. These models are used to develop mitigation plans and strategies for reducing the impacts of cyclones. This study developed and tested a hazard modelling approach for cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila, a 151 km2 local government area in coastal Bangladesh. The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering < 1000 km2. A storm surge model integrating historical cyclone data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to generate the cyclone hazard maps for different cyclone return periods. Frequency analysis was carried out using historical cyclone data (1960--2015) to calculate the storm surge heights of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods of cyclones. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. Our results showed that cyclone affected areas increased with the increase of return periods. Around 63% of study area was located in the moderate to very high hazard zones for 50 year return period, while it was 70% for 100 year return period. The climate change scenarios increased the cyclone impact area by 6-10 % in every return period. Our findings indicate this approach has potential to model the cyclone hazards for developing mitigation plans and strategies to reduce the future impacts of cyclones.

Quantification of uncertainties in the 100-year flow at an ungaged site near a gaged station and its application in Georgia

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has introduced the concept of the “1-percent plus” flow to incorporate various uncertainties in estimation of the 100-year or 1-percent flow. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no clear directions for calculating the 1-percent plus flow have been defined in the literature. Although information about standard errors of estimation and prediction is provided along with the regression equations that are often used to estimate the 1-percent flow at ungaged sites, uncertainty estimation becomes more complicated when there is a nearby gaged station because regression flows and the peak flow estimate from a gage analysis should be weighted to compute the weighted estimate of the 1-percent flow. In this study, an equation for calculating the 1-percent plus flow at an ungaged site near a gaged station is analytically derived. Also, a detailed process is introduced for calculating the 1-percent plus flow for an ungaged site near a gaged station in Georgia as an example and a case study is performed. This study provides engineers and practitioners with a method that helps them better assess flood risks and develop mitigation plans accordingly.

Improving Lean Design of Production Systems by Visualization Support

The design process of production systems is complex with many different aspects to consider for efficiently developing and installing an effective system. Important success factors during the design process are typically the abilities to identify and manage risks, develop mitigation plans, and conduct timely proactive problem solving. The work reported in this paper is part of research addressing methods for how the design process can be supported by using virtual representations of the factory environments captured with 3D laser scanning. This support is evaluated in an industrial study of one industrialization project in the manufacturing industry. The industrialization project follows the process to design layout, work places, and plan for installation of new equipment to create a production system within a refurbished shop floor area. The area will include CNC machining centers, welding stations, product inspection, product cleaning, and material handling. 3D laser scanning is used to provide an accurate and realistic virtual representation of the current shop floor area. This virtual representation is combined with 3D CAD models of the new machining centers and other equipment to provide a realistic visualization of the planned production system. The research approach and its questions investigate the benefits of combining the lean principles to design and development of production systems using a realistic visualization, which include systematic risk analysis and problem solving as important activities. The result shows that visualization support gave a great advantage to identify the possible risks and problems, which resulted in higher confidence and substantial timesaving in planning and execution of the industrialization project.