Nuclear Deterrence Research Articles

Climate, nuclear weapons control and cyber threats: three problems or one?

The article analyzes a set of problems related to the mutual influence of three global challenges ofour time, which will determine the configuration of modern society in the medium and long term: climate change, nuclear arms control and cyber threats. The study reveals the role of each of the components and the prospects for their transformation for Russia, the United States and European states. Priority scenarios of state policy within the framework of nuclear deterrence and information security are substantiated. The experience of recent decades reveals that the rejection of security treaties, as a rule, weakens the security of States, rather than strengthens it. Thus, in the course of the study, strategic objectives, the content side and policy options of the Russian Federation in the current international situation were considered, conclusions were drawn regarding the optimality of the chosen strategies for interaction with European partners in the field of arms control, the climate agenda and cyber threats. The authors conclude that it is necessary to create a new generation security architecture through informal consultations on strategic stability, which determine the negotiation plan to be discussed at official negotiations between Russia and the United States. In addition, the authors prove that in the foreseeable future, climate change will have a negative impact on the activities of armies and increase the frequency of their deployment in crisis situations. For this reason, competitive advantages in the defense sector will be determined by the ability of the command to adapt to climate change,reduce damage to military infrastructure and minimise the risks of resource losses due to natural disasters and extreme weather conditions.

Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse

Pacific activists’ proclamation that nuclear testing is nuclear use poses a challenge to the notion of nuclear nonuse in the discipline of International Relations (IR). While addressing such a challenge, this article reveals a disciplinary blind spot regarding nuclear testing that disqualifies testing from nuclear use. I argue that IR discussions of nuclear nonuse—exemplified by Scott Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz’s debates on nuclear deterrence and Nina Tannenwald’s nuclear taboo framework—are part of the colonial knowledge production that dismisses the political agency and humanity of colonized people. This article then argues that nuclear testing is a form of nuclear use, specifically, the colonial use of nuclear weapons, by developing a postcolonial reinterpretation of nuclear testing in the case of US nuclear weapon tests in the Marshall Islands (1946–58).

THE REPERCUSSIONS OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CRISIS ON THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Beginning with Ukraine's announcement on February 24th that Moscow would start a military operation in its territory, this study examines the current crisis in Ukraine from the perspectives of its causes and the consequences it will have on the future of the current international system. Moscow took a step to raise world concern and fear on February 24th when Kyiv announced that Moscow had begun military operations with a ground invasion of its lands. The previous day, the presidents of Donetsk and Luhansk had asked the Russian president to intervene and protect them from Ukrainian forces. Russia and NATO have been exchanging remarks and threats for some time, and now a confrontation in Ukraine is a distinct possibility. Following this unexpected move, there were analyses and guesses regarding the future of the international system and, by extension, the entire planet. Considering Russia's history of nuclear threats, including the most recent remark by the Russian president that alerts the country's nuclear deterrent forces, this is particularly true. As of this writing, the situation has not been resolved, and it occasionally shows signs of quiet before escalating again

Breaking the Newtonian Fetish: Conceptualizing War Differently for a Changing World

Explaining what a military’s social paradigm concerning conflict and war is requires a theoretical approach to both frame the core constructs and offer feasible alternatives. This article introduces social paradigm theory for military application and how most modern, technologically advanced militaries sustain a Newtonian-styled worldview concerning warfare and what constitutes war. The Newtonian-styled war paradigm gained prominence during the last five centuries, yet is now becoming increasingly insufficient and possibly irrelevant. The integration of ever-increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence into nearly all aspects of warfare will require new ways of thinking and how teams of humans and AI systems collaborate in complex security contexts immediately. The new combination of the space domain, cyberspace, those military forces associated with these new domains, and special operations activities are of increased focus for how and why conflict may change, particularly within an overarching traditional nuclear deterrence between state competitors. This requires a military paradigmatic shift, moving away from Newtonian constructs.

Front-line guardian of the status quo: Japan under the Kishida government

Abstract Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his government have implemented bold defence, diplomatic and economic policies against the challenges to the status quo order posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increased Chinese assertiveness. What do these policies unveil about Japan's strategy and response to the transformed strategic environment? This article argues that the Kishida government has upgraded Japan to a front-line guardian of the status quo order. To achieve its front-line role, the Kishida government has consolidated Japan's deterrence policy, namely focusing on two main pillars—military and rules. To ensure Japan's frontline role is sustainable, this policy paper makes three recommendations: Japan must develop strategic clarity and clear operational plans on how to respond to a regional contingency, such as the Taiwan Strait; Japan must resolve domestic problems that prevent the increase in defence spending to 2 per cent in the period to 2027. Japan's role as a front-line state to protect the status quo order is very much dependent on the availability of resources that would be provided by this increase in defence spending; Japan should re-energize its efforts towards east Asia through a sustained diplomatic, economic and security means. This is important in securing support for Japan's preferred vision of regional and global order from not only like-minded partners and friends in east Asia, but also China. Japan's approach should underscore how the extant status quo order benefits all states, including China, especially in terms of spreading economic prosperity, development and connectivity.

Planning for a Post-American Europe

Donald Trump’s possible return as US president has again raised the spectre of the United States’ abandoning its central role in the European security order. Given the profound polarisation and insularity that has arisen in US politics, transatlantic relations might not readily return to the traditional comfort zone even if Joe Biden is re-elected. In Europe, vigorous public discussion has arisen on ramping up defence-industrial capabilities to help Ukraine and to reduce European dependence on the US; on the future of US extended nuclear deterrence; and on France’s readiness to give a specifically European dimension to nuclear deterrence. Europe’s ability to prepare constructively for a diminished American security role will hinge on the European trend of rising populist-fuelled authoritarianism, and on the customary difficulty France and Germany have in crafting a joint approach to strategic planning.

Theoretical perspectives on cybersecurity challenges in critical water infrastructure: Insights from Africa and the United States

This review paper examines the theoretical perspectives on cybersecurity challenges facing critical water infrastructure, with a focus on comparative insights from Africa and the United States. By exploring foundational theories of risk management, resilience, and deterrence, the paper delineates how these concepts are applied and adapted to address the cybersecurity needs of critical water systems within the distinct contexts of the two regions. The analysis identifies common challenges such as malware attacks, system vulnerabilities, human factors, and how regional differences influence technological infrastructure, regulatory environments, and cyber threat landscapes. Through a comparative analysis, the paper highlights lessons learned and best practices from both regions, emphasizing the importance of capacity building, comprehensive risk management, and the role of public-private partnerships. The paper concludes with a call for future research to develop adaptable theoretical models that address different regions' unique cybersecurity challenges, underlining theoretical understanding's critical role in enhancing the global resilience of critical water infrastructure against cyber threats.

How acceptable is optimal deterrence?

The article examines the social acceptability of optimal deterrence policies. While there is considerable research on intuitions regarding punishment and the counter-intuitive nature of economic reasoning, the problem of whether decisions based on optimal deterrence are acceptable remains inadequately researched. Two studies examined how acceptance rates vary for different decisions implementing optimal deterrence theory. They demonstrate that (1) policies increasing punishment severity are more acceptable than those decreasing it; (2) changes at the level of penal policy are more acceptable than individual court rulings; (3) acceptance rates decrease as the magnitude of change increases; (4) strict adherence to optimal deterrence theory’s recommendations does not significantly affect the acceptability of the decisions. In addition, no optimal deterrence policies were accepted, on average, or by the majority of participants.

Innovating Deterrence Strategies in the New Space Age

In recent decades, space has become a crucial arena in international relations, reshaping geopolitical dynamics due to the increased reliance on satellite technology and strategic space assets. Nations globally recognize the economic and strategic advantages of space, leading to cooperation and competition. The expanding use of space for communication, navigation, surveillance, and exploration has become integral to modern societies. The commercial space industry, driven by private entities, contributes significantly to space endeavors. This heightened reliance on space assets necessitates robust space security policies to protect critical systems and maintain technological advantages. Traditionally, deterrence theories focused on terrestrial domains, but the unique characteristics of space demand a paradigm shift. The article introduces a novel perspective on space deterrence, emphasizing strategic capabilities, alliances, and a nuanced understanding of potential aggressors. Core components include denial, resilience, and cost imposition strategies. Military strength, alliances, and space-based nuclear assets play roles in conventional and nuclear space deterrence. Dissuading military aggression involves operational concepts, resilience, and strategic costs. Shaping aggressor thinking requires perception management, confidence-building, and norms. Crafting denial and punishment strategies involves arms control initiatives. Understanding potential aggressors involves assessing motives, aligning interests, and evaluating orbital escalation. The multidimensional nature of space deterrence converges to create a robust framework for dissuading aggression, ensuring a stable and secure celestial environment.

The dual ‘dual’ policy: Two conceptions of ‘deterrence and reassurance’ in Norwegian security policy and analyses

ABSTRACT This article argues that the conceptual basis for the Norwegian policy framed by ‘deterrence and reassurance’ towards the Soviet Union/Russia has consisted of two divergent ‘balancing acts’. One is ‘calibrated deterrence’, where reassurance is the means to ‘balance’ the deterrent effect. The other is a ‘balance’ between two theoretically conflicting means of achieving security: calibrated deterrence, versus reassurance understood as efforts and means to achieve common security. The argument implies that reassurance balancing deterrence has represented different things according to its use. Clarifying these distinct dyads improves our theoretical understanding of how states conduct their deterrent policies.

Japan’s potential assistance in South Korea’s nuclear deterrence and defense

As North Korea emphasized its “second mission,” the reunification of the two Koreas, with its nuclear weapons, South Korea has been mobilizing all potential resources to deter North Korea’s attempt. Indeed, it rapidly improved its relations with Japan as well as strengthened the U.S. extended deterrence through the “Washington Declaration” in early 2023. The United States, South Korea, and Japan even initiated their trilateral summit meeting to discuss their combined deterrence posture against North Korea. This article evaluates South Korea’s current nuclear preparedness, including preemptive/preventive strikes, missile defense, and civil defense, identifies weaknesses, and analyzes whether Japan can mitigate the weakness.

Can increasing preventive patrol in large geographic areas reduce crime? A systematic review and meta‐analysis

AbstractResearch summaryWe conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis examining whether increasing preventive patrol in large areas reduces crime. Our review included experimental and quasi‐experimental studies that focused on areas such as beats, precincts, or entire jurisdictions and that measured a crime outcome either through official data or surveys. We identified 17 studies to include in our review. We used two methods for assessing study impacts: an approach which identified a primary/general outcome measure and a second approach which used robust variance estimation (RVE) and included all effect sizes across each study. Both approaches showed small crime prevention benefits (RVE: 9% decline; primary/general: 6% decline), but only the RVE model was significant at conventional levels (p < 0.05). There was no significant evidence of displacement. Moderator analyses suggest that as dosage increases so do the crime prevention impacts. In RVE models, preventive patrol was associated with significant reductions in property and violent crime, but nonsignificant increases in drug and disorder offenses.Policy implicationsIncreasing preventive patrol activities has the potential to reduce crime in large administrative areas. At the same time, existing studies offer little guidance as to how such preventive patrol should be carried out. Deterrence theory, as well as evidence from studies of hot spots policing, suggests that the greatest benefits will be gained from informing patrol efforts about where and when crime occurs. Although more research is needed regarding patrol allocations in large areas, present knowledge suggests that the more such patrols can be targeted at specific places at specific times, the greater will be the crime control benefits. In this context, we argue that police agencies may want to apply a hybrid approach to police patrol, which would include a combination of hot spots policing units and general patrol units informed by data on where crime is concentrated.

THE DEATH PENALTY AND ETHICS

The execution of a person who has been found guilty of a crime by the state is known as the capital penalty. The usefulness of this punishment is hotly contested in today's culture. The moral perspective of abolitionists holds that the death sentence is unethical because it violates human rights and can lead to biased sentencing. The "eye-to-eye approach" and the "deterrent theory" are the main arguments used by proponents of the death penalty to support their position. However, some Indian court rulings have emphasized the "rarest of the rare" situations for which this type of punishment ought to be applied.

Possession of Nuclear Deterrence as Security Dilemma: Impacting Regional Stability of South Asia

This paper uses qualitative research tools to unearth the nuanced features of nuclear deterrence and security dilemmas in South Asia. The study focuses on India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, the historical background of nuclearization, the basics of deterrence in today's context as well as an elaborate analysis of their security landscape. The research focuses on the more complex question of ‘Nuclear Strategy and Regional Stability: What is India Thinking?’ in its precis, and involves qualitative analysis through case studies like the Kargil Conflict. The paper elaborates further on the part of international actors with reference to nuclear non-proliferation and potential challenges in the days ahead. By prioritizing qualitative data, this paper shows that the security dilemma remains a potent force and one that requires collective endeavors to address regional insecurities and foster greater peace across South Asia.

The moderating impact of organizational culture on information security compliance

This research paper investigates the association between organizational culture and employees' compliance with information security policies. Drawing upon rational choice theory (RCT) and the competing values framework (CVF), our study explores the moderating effects of cultural dimensions on information security compliance in a diverse range of organizations. We employ a scenario-based approach and analyze the data using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Our findings underscore the robustness of the model and emphasize the pivotal role of cultural dimensions in influencing employees' compliance intentions.
 The study contributes by synthesizing non-fear-based deterrence theory with organizational culture theory, offering practical insights for information security managers. Recommendations include framing compliance as a moral duty, involving end-users in policy development, utilizing effective communication, implementing monitoring systems, and fostering a consistency culture. For organizations, the research underscores the importance of cultivating an ethical culture, emphasizing moral beliefs, and leveraging cultural dimensions to enhance compliance intentions.
 Acknowledging limitations related to single-country data collection, a focus on compliance intentions, and the selection of organizations with established policies, this research paves the way for future studies. Future research should aim to replicate this study in diverse cultural settings, consider individual-level culture measurement, and explore additional moderating factors. This research contributes to understanding the intricate relationship between organizational culture and information security compliance, offering actionable insights for practitioners and prospects for further exploration in the information security field.

Ally, deterrence, or leverage in the tripartite game? The effects of indirect stakeholders in historic urban regeneration

The conflict between public and private interests has become a focal point of contention among various parties in the process of expropriation and relocation for historic urban regeneration. Failures to properly resolve such conflict often lead to impeded urban regeneration and/or loss of cultural values. Although previous studies have analyzed the mediating role of various types of indirect stakeholders in historic urban regeneration, they have not further examined various effects of indirect stakeholders. Inspired by the theories of dependence, deterrence, and agency among stakeholders, this study explains the different effects of indirect stakeholders on the three parties (government, developers, and residents) following the evolutionary game theory. Specifically, replicator dynamics equations are established to simulate the evolution paths of the government, developers, and residents in the tripartite game involving indirect stakeholders through a case study for the historic regeneration of Zhongshan Road in Nanning, China. Modeling parameters are obtained through semi-structured interviews and quantified analyses of policy documents. The results reveal that indirect stakeholders (1) show a positive ally effect benefiting the stability of government strategies, (2) have a negative deterrent effect conducive to the stable evolution of developers, and (3) have an indirect leverage effect on the evolution of residents. Our study makes contributions by (1) designing a new indirect stakeholder mechanism to urban regeneration, and (2) establishing a new analysis framework for the tripartite game in urban regeneration. Although the case study is conducted in the context of China, the analytical framework is applicable to other countries.

Options for Signalling Cyber Deterrence Using Cyber Capabilities

The possibility of demonstrating power in cyberspace to create deterrence is a controversial topic. The desire of states to hide their true cyber capabilities leads to a reluctance to reveal their existing cyber power. However, the core idea of deterrence involves demonstrating power and signalling the will to use it so that the potential aggressor would find it less tempting to carry out aggression. Several studies attempt to solve the challenges related to cyber deterrence with a holistic approach, where deterrence in cyberspace is produced as part of a comprehensive deterrence using all instruments of state power, such as diplomatic, information, military, economic and legal capabilities. In turn, some studies argue that for credibility, cyber deterrence must include measures implemented specifically in cyberspace because cyberattacks can only be responded to in real-time with cyber capabilities. This paper argues that demonstrating cyber power is both necessary and profitable for the credibility of deterrence, although the nature of cyberspace and related technologies pose some limitations. This study examines the possibilities of demonstrating cyber power in concrete ways and aims to add a new perspective to academic debate. Cyber deterrence is investigated from the perspective of classical deterrence theory, including deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment. By examining cyber deterrence literature using content analysis, deterrents that can be produced with cyber capabilities are defined, and examples of means to produce these effects are presented. According to the central observation of the study, a state can choose whether to demonstrate cyber power by revealing the victories achieved in real-life cyber battles, by demonstrating force in another state's cyberterritory or by disclosing selected capabilities in separate simulations without a real-life connection.

Deterrence and Foreign Election Intervention: Securing Democracy through Punishment, Denial, and Delegitimization

Abstract Democratic elections are under threat from foreign interference. Democracies around the world are experimenting with a range of responses, from threatening potential interveners with a variety of retaliatory punishments to bolstering election security, scrutiny, and counter-interference operations, and leveraging multilateral institutions to reinforce norms of behavior and rules of engagement. At their root, many of these approaches are anchored to the logic of deterrence, compellence, and denial. Surprisingly, however, scholars and practitioners have paid scant attention to how contemporary approaches to countering foreign election intervention (FEI) fit within the larger framework of deterrence theory and practice. Our article reframes existing contemporary responses to FEI within the unifying context of fifth-wave deterrence scholarship, an emerging subtext of research on coercion with a penchant for all-domain observations, interdisciplinarity, and sub-threshold challenges that bridge the divide between national security and public safety. By exploring FEI within the context of contemporary deterrence, we sharpen our collective understanding of the phenomena and how best to respond. Our analysis encourages a more nuanced understanding of adversaries’ cost–benefit calculations in deciding whether, when and how to intervene in elections, and, crucially, helps identify the tools, technologies, infrastructures, and processes needed to manipulate an adversary's calculus and preferences. In doing so, we gain a better sense of the conditions under which states can deter FEI all the while securing national elections.

Przemoc, przymus i eskalacja we współczesnej rywalizacji strategicznej

Celem badań było wyjaśnienie i scharakteryzowanie znaczenia przemocy, przymusu i eskalacji we współczesnej rywalizacji strategicznej. Główny problem badawczy wyartykułowano pytaniem: w czym wyraża się i charakteryzuje się przemoc, przymus i eskalacja we współczesnej rywalizacji strategicznej? W procesie badawczym wykorzystano analizę i krytykę literatury, obserwację nieuczestniczącą oraz studium przypadków. W rezultacie przeprowadzonych badan ustalono, że w rywalizacji strategicznej zawsze jest obecna przemoc i przymus. Są one swoistymi narzędziami oddziaływania międzynarodowego do osiągania określonych celów politycznych. Przymus jest użyciem siły w sposób ograniczony, demonstracją siły, lub użyciem sił zbrojnych i prowadzenie starcia zbrojnego. Przymus zawiera w sobie odstraszanie i wymuszanie. Eskalacja to wzrost intensywności lub zakresu sporu albo konfliktu pomiędzy dwiema stronami, który przekracza próg uznawany za istotny przez jednego lub więcej jego uczestników. Eskalacja jest zjawiskiem interaktywnym, zachodzącym pomiędzy dwoma (lub więcej) stronami konfliktu, które dążą do uzyskania jednostronnej przewagi. Eskalacji zapobiega się poprzez odstraszanie strategiczne lub posiadanie dominacji eskalacyjnej.

Legal instruments for deterring nuclear conflict in the current military and political geo-environment

The relevance of this study lies in the need to consider the legal instruments for deterring a nuclear conflict in connection with the crisis of nuclear safety and instability in the current military-political geo-environment. The purpose of this study was to examine international experience in the field of legal consolidation of prohibitive norms of deterrence necessary to prevent nuclear threats. The following general scientific and special methods were employed in the study: analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, generalisation, as well as formal legal, legal hermeneutics, logical- legal, comparative legal, and historical-legal methods. The study examined the specialised international legal framework of regulatory documents in the field of nuclear safety, safe operation of nuclear facilities and nuclear deterrence, as well as nuclear deterrence strategies and their development depending on the geopolitical situation. Based on the results of the study, it is determined that the legal regulation of nuclear conflict containment is in the form of prohibitory orders consolidated in the relevant international treaties in the field of nuclear and radiation safety. The study highlighted the main international treaties positioned as legal means of nuclear deterrence. The interaction of “soft” and “hard” law in nuclear and radiation safety agreements was considered, as well as the specific features of consolidating such norms in municipal law. The study provided generalising conclusions in terms of nuclear deterrence strategies, specifically, a vision of a new concept in this area, based on technological superiority in non-nuclear means of repelling nuclear strikes and massive precision non-nuclear retaliatory strikes. It was also concluded that attention should be paid to the development of a new international treaty that would combine all the rules prohibiting the use of nuclear energy for military purposes, as well as the rules governing nuclear and radiation safety as integral components of global nuclear security. The practical significance of this study is that its materials can be used for further development of the concepts of non-nuclear or legal nuclear deterrence