Determinants Of House Prices Research Articles

Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression: exploring the spatiotemporal determinants of housing prices

ABSTRACTUnderstanding scale effects is important and indispensable for geography studies. However, spatial and spatiotemporal statistical tools for measuring the operational scales of different processes are rather limited. This article extends the popular geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to consider operational scale effects by proposing multiscale GTWR (MGTWR), which offers a flexible and scalable framework for identifying and analysing multiscale processes by specifying flexible bandwidths for various covariates. Then, MGTWR is employed to explore spatiotemporal variations and how influential factors are associated with housing prices in Shenzhen. This article attempts to extend GTWR to MGTWR in consideration of scale effects, thereby highlighting the importance of different levels of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Furthermore, the empirical results of this study can provide valuable policy implications for real estate development in areas where urban planning should address multiscale effects in both temporal and spatial dimensions.

Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data

In this paper, we study the effect of macroeconomic shocks in the determination of house prices. Focusing on the US and the UK housing market, we employ time-varying vector autoregression models using Bayesian methods covering the periods of 1830–2016 and 1845–2016, respectively. We consider real house prices, output growth, short-term interest rates and inflation as input variables in order to unveil the effect of macroeconomic shocks on house prices. From the examination of the impulse responses of house prices on macroeconomic shocks, we find that technology shocks dominate in the US real estate market, while their effect is unimportant in the UK. In contrast, monetary policy drives most of the evolution of the UK house prices, while transitory house supply shocks are unimportant in either country. These findings are further corroborated with the analysis of conditional volatilities and correlations with macroeconomic shocks. Overall, we are able to unveil the dynamic linkages in the relationship of the macroeconomy and house prices. Over time, we analyze the variations in economic events happening at the imposition of the shock and uncover characteristics missed in the time-invariant approaches of previous studies.

Hedonic Price Ripple Effect and Consumer Choice: Evidence from New Homes

This study uses the hedonic price model to examine the determinants of house prices. It employs kernel density to estimate the spatial weight matrix and conducts spatial econometrics and instrumental variables quantile regression analysis. Taking a new building in Shanghai city as an example, this micro-perspective study shows that hedonic prices of houses are derived from consumer hedonic preferences and their changes in terms of inertia and spatial ripple effects. However, there are large differences in the drivers of the same hedonic attribute across quantile degrees. With house prices gradually decreasing from the city center to the surrounding areas, the ripple effect is significant in determining residents’ preferred consumption characteristics and presents several inverted U-shaped and inverted U-shaped relationships. Residents’ preference for housing consumption is mainly reflected in the average area of the house, property fee, location of the administrative area, and so on. Regional real estate price changes are mainly reflected in hedonic house prices, and real consumer demand for housing is mainly derived from hedonic preference. Therefore, government regulation and control of house prices should consider different regions and different consumer groups simultaneously.

Homeownership motivation, rationality, and housing prices: Evidence from gloom, boom, and bust‐and‐boom economies

AbstractBy focusing on three types of homebuyers, we address three questions: (a) Do households drive housing prices? (b) Do households and landlords act rationally in their buying decisions? (c) Is the market conducive to promoting homeownership or is it a speculators' territory? We use system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations based on 1970–2016 data, for 34 economies clustered as gloom, boom, or bust‐and‐boom, and we provide novel evidence that all three types of homebuyers contribute significantly to the determination of housing prices. Households and landlords seem to act irrationally as their decisions are not greatly affected by housing affordability or shrinking yields.

Determinants of Real Estate Prices in the Statutory City of Brno

The real estate market demand for both‑houses and flats has been growing recently. This trend is one of the factors, which are able to influence the price of real estate. Our paper introduces determinants of housing price and their influence on actual real estate prices in the statutory city of Brno. The aim of this paper is to present key determinants of house price and find the hedonic price model, which describes, how determinants affect house price best. Realized prices were analyzed for housing units located in different districts of Brno. Key determinants in this research are a year of sale, an area of flat in square meters, number of rooms, location in districts of Brno, type of masonry and reconstruction. The dataset covers the time period between years 2012 and 2015. Hedonic price model is estimated by the method of ordinary least square. Besides main aim, four assumptions were verified, which should determine the influence on the price of individual determinants in the statutory city of Brno.

패널분석을 이용한 대도시 주택가격변동의 결정요인 연구 - 민간소비와 사회간접자본(SOC)을 중심으로

패널분석을 이용한 대도시 주택가격변동의 결정요인 연구 - 민간소비와 사회간접자본(SOC)을 중심으로

Asymmetric causality between the U.S. housing market and its stock market: Evidence from state level data

Previous research that investigated the link between the U.S. housing market and its stock market concentrated on the wealth effect by assuming the stock prices to be another determinant of house prices. However, the meltdown of housing market and its subsequent impact on the stock market and the U.S. economy in 2008 pointed to causal relation that could run from housing market to stock market. When we tested this hypothesis using state level data, we found short-run symmetric causality from stock prices to house prices in 10 states and from house prices to stock prices in 20 states. However, when we engaged in asymmetric causality, these numbers increased to 25 and 41 respectively. Surprisingly, in 39 out of 41 states in which house prices caused stock prices, it was decline in house prices that caused stock prices, supporting the events of 2008 as well as asymmetric impacts. We also found cointegration of the two markets in more than half of the states.

Determinants of housing prices: evidence from Ontario cities, 2001-2011

Determinants of housing prices: evidence from Ontario cities, 2001-2011

The determinants of informal housing price in Beijing: Village power, informal institutions, and property security

Although the how's of the informal housing market in China has been discussed widely; the answers remain conflicted. Using the theory of new institutional economics, this paper aims to answer two questions: what informal institutions secure the de facto tenure and facilitate the market? and How do informal institutions affect the pricing mechanism? We propose a conceptual framework to investigate the links between informal institutions, de facto tenure, and the price of informal housing. It is argued that villages have the ability to seek political patronage and regulate the market transactions to secure the tenure of informal housing. This ability is authorized by several formalities: the dual land system and the regime of village autonomy. The growing powers of market agencies in local development help strengthen the village's ability. The variances in ability between villages lead to a heterogeneity of tenure security, thus creating price differentials in the market. A higher tenure security increases the housing price. In conclusion, the informal housing market in China is “regulated” by a “semi-formal” system in which both informality and formality work and intertwine. A robust pricing mechanism has been emerging within the context of transition.

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Homeowners' Portfolio Choice

This paper examines the mediating effect of the recent financial crisis on the relationship between house value fluctuation and households’ liquid portfolio choice. To isolate exogenous variation in homeowners' home equity and mortgage debt before and after the crisis, I use a new regional level construction cost index along with other commonly used house price determinants as instruments. Using an administrative register-based panel data for the entire Danish population in the period 2004 – 2012, I find that the effect of housing on households' risky asset holdings is asymmetric before and after the crisis. The elasticity of risky asset shares with respect to mortgage debt and home equity is -0.31 and 0.28 respectively in pre-crisis period. On the other hand, whereas for the post-crisis period, the elasticity of risky asset shares with respect to mortgage debt and home equity is -0.37 and 0.34 respectively. Suppose an average household had spent 10% more on housing, the estimates suggest that they would hold 6% less in risky shares pre-crisis and 7% less post-crisis. Homeowners rebalance their liquid portfolio to a larger extent in response to their housing value fluctuation after the financial crisis, adding an additional effect that is likely to exacerbate the instability of an already tumultuous financial system.

The impact of employment on housing prices: Detailed evidence from FDI in Ireland

Access to employment is one of the most valuable amenities offered by cities. In urban economics, this is the principal driver of the bid-rent gradient and is a key determinant of housing prices and land values. However, little is known about the causal effect of employment on housing prices, due to the problem of identification. This study presents the first causal estimates of employment changes on housing prices, both sales and rental. It does this by using a purpose-built spatially granular dataset of 1.4 million housing prices and FDI employment, covering Ireland 2007–2013. Identification rests on a combination of rich spatio-temporal variation due to the abundance of FDI in Ireland, a rich set of location controls and an inelastic housing supply in the period covered. The main results show that 1–2 years after 1000 extra jobs have been created, monthly rents in nearby properties will be between 0.5% and 1% higher. The effect on prices is at least 2% but less consistent across specifications. On average, net job creation in export-oriented FDI firms 2009–2013 added roughly €48 million to the stock of wealth of owner occupied real estate and €8 million to the stock of wealth of the rental sector. We also estimate that the aggregate effect of the stock of FDI jobs in 2013 on Irish housing prices is €440 million, or just over 1%.

Price Determinants of Affordable Apartments in Vietnam: Toward the Public–Private Partnerships for Sustainable Housing Development

Since the Doi Moi policy of economic reform in 1986, Vietnam has experienced economic development and housing market growth with increasing foreign direct investment. While high-end apartment development has dominated since the emergence of the privatized housing market, more recent focus is on the affordable apartment segment with the remarkable surge of middle-income households in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). While most previous studies have analyzed housing price determinants based on locational classification, this study is based on the affordability framework of the housing market in HCMC. It aims to investigate the price determinants of affordable and unaffordable apartment units using the hedonic regression model. The study identified common factors between the two types of apartments, such as vertical shared access and proximity to downtown, as well as unique factors for each, such as more high-rise towers, foreign development, proximity to main roads, and shopping malls only for the affordable segments. The findings have valuable implications, not only for future investors and developers in setting up successful housing development strategies, but also for the public sector in strongly encouraging public–private partnerships for sustainable housing development in Vietnam.

Overoptimism and house price bubbles

The paper explores the significance of overoptimism for house prices in Denmark using both aggregated data from the Danish Consumer Expectations Survey as well as the underlying household-level microdata matched with administrative register data at a household level. The results indicate that house price developments are partly driven by sentiments decoupled from underlying economic fundamentals. This seems especially to have been the case during the strong house price booms in the mid-1980 s and the mid-2000 s, where overoptimism might have accounted for 15–20% of the house prices' deviation from a constant growth trend. Furthermore, overoptimistic households were more likely to purchase real estate in the 2000 s compared to other households, and they leveraged more when purchasing real estate. There seems thus to be a separate “confidence” channel in the determination of house prices in addition to the variables usually found in standard macroeconomic house-price models.

Interurban house price gradient

This paper applies a general spatial equilibrium model to investigate the effect that distance within urban hierarchy can have on interurban house prices. Our spatial model predicts a negative price gradient towards higher-tier cities, which can be decomposed into a ’productivity component’ and an ’amenity component’, representing respectively the effect of wage differences and households’ valuation of access to higher-order services. The theoretical findings are tested on data for the hierarchical urban system of the Pan-Yangtze River Delta in China. Both central and subcentral cities are shown to impose statistically significant distance penalties on interurban house prices, even after we control for amenities and characteristics that are generally considered to be the determinants of house prices. According to the empirical decomposition, the negative house price gradients are largely accounted for by the productivity component.

Time-Varying Role of Macroeconomic Shocks on House Prices in the US and UK: Evidence from over 150 Years of Data

In this paper, we study the effect of macroeconomic shocks in the determination of house prices. Focusing on the U.S. and the U.K. housing market, we employ time-varying Vector Autoregression models using Bayesian methods covering the periods of 1830-2016 and 1845-2016 respectively. We consider real house prices, output growth, short-term interest rates and inflation as input variables in order to unveil the effect of macroeconomic shocks on house prices. From the examination of the impulse responses of house prices on macroeconomic shocks, we find that technology shocks dominate in the U.S. real estate market, while their effect is unimportant in the U.K. In contrast, monetary policy drives most of the evolution of the U.K. house prices, while transitory house supply shocks are unimportant in either country. These findings are further corroborated with the analysis of conditional volatilities and correlations to macroeconomic shocks. Overall, we are able to unveil the dynamic linkages in the relationship of the macro economy and house prices. Over time, we analyze the variations in economic events happening at the imposition of the shock and uncover characteristics missed in the time-invariant approaches of previous studies.

Value the 'Memory'!: Identifying Macroeconomic Variations in Housing Price Determination

When both housing prices and macroeconomic variables possess significant 'long-memory', disregarding this under-identifies demand and supply functions of a housing market. The long-run relationship among variables and the speed of disequilibrium error adjustment are also misrepresented. We confirm these predictions for the US housing market using a fractionally cointegrated-VAR framework.

Determinantes del precio de la vivienda en Bucaramanga

El objetivo del artículo fue analizar los cambios en los determinantes del precio de la vivienda en Bucaramanga, en 2005 y 2012, luego de la implementación del sistema de transporte público Metrolínea. Para el análisis, se utilizó el método de precios hedónicos, que explica cómo el conjunto de características convencionales y atributos del entorno de las viviendas influyen en la disposición a pagar de los consumidores. Los resultados sugieren que las características del inmueble y los atributos convencionales, como estrato, tipo de vivienda y tenencia de garaje, tienen mayor relevancia que los atributos de calidad ambiental. Asimismo, se evidencia un cambio en la significancia en algunas variables de un periodo a otro, lo cual supone la existencia de nuevas variables que pueden explicar el comportamiento de los precios de la vivienda y que podrían estar relacionadas con la puesta en marcha del nuevo sistema de transporte público.

Exploring Determinants of Housing Prices in Beijing: An Enhanced Hedonic Regression with Open Access POI Data

The housing market in Chinese metropolises have become inflated significantly over the last decade. In addition to an economic upturn and housing policies that have potentially fueled the real estate bubble, factors that have contributed to the spatial heterogeneity of housing prices can be dictated by the amenity value in the proximity of communities, such as accessibility to business centers and transportation hubs. In the past, scholars have employed the hedonic pricing model to quantify the amenity value in relation to structural, locational, and environmental variables. These studies, however, are limited by two methodological obstacles that are relatively difficult to overcome. The first pertains to difficulty of data collection in regions where geospatial datasets are strictly controlled and limited. The second refers to the spatial autocorrelation effect inherent in the hedonic analysis. Using Beijing, China as a case study, we addressed these two issues by (1) collecting residential housing and urban amenity data in terms of Points of Interest (POIs) through web-crawling on open access platforms; and (2) eliminating the spatial autocorrelation effect using the Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) method. The results showed that the effects of nearby amenities on housing prices are mixed. In other words, while proximity to certain amenities, such as convenient parking, was positively correlated with housing prices, other amenity variables, such as supermarkets, showed negative correlations. This mixed finding is further discussed in relation to community planning strategies in Beijing. This paper provides an example of employing open access datasets to analyze the determinants of housing prices. Results derived from the model can offer insights into the reasons for housing segmentation in Chinese cities, eventually helping to formulate effective urban planning strategies and equitable housing policies.

Can the Housing Policies Sustain House Prices in Malaysia?

In addition to economic factors, this paper examines the impact of housing policies in sustaining house prices in Malaysia at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. By using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we develop a model of house price determination with a focus on two major housing policies–mortgage interest tax relief (MITR) and Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS). Although aggregate house prices do not react to any economic variable in the long run, it responds positively to interest rate and DIBS in the short run. At the disaggregate level, population and housing stock influence house prices in the long run. Nonetheless, MITR and DIBS have a statistically significant positive impact on the price of high-rise houses. We conclude that while demand and supply variables are important determinants of house prices in the long run, house price changes are affected by housing policies in the short run. For policy recommendation, we suggest to strictly prohibit DIBS to ensure a stable growth in the housing market. Besides that, MITR should be implemented to ensure housing affordability and to stimulate the housing market during recession.

House price determinants in Athens: a spatial econometric approach

In this paper, we try to identify the price determinants in the biggest real estate market of Greece, the metropolitan area of Athens. For that purpose, various spatial econometric models are used to explore their prediction ability and we are displaying the variations in property prices for the wider area of Athens. These models have been compared based on different criteria such as model fit, the Akaike information criterion and variance of the residuals. Our results indicate that, in our case, the spatial general model is the most appropriate simultaneous autoregressive model when dealing with spatially autocorrelated prices of housing properties data, in terms of our selection criteria.