Destination Provinces Research Articles

Evolution and influential factors of inbound tourist flow network in China: a two-mode network perspective

ABSTRACT Different from existing studies focusing on tourist flow networks at the destination level, this study adopts a two-mode network analysis to identify the network structure, market groupings, and evolution of inbound tourist flows from 13 major origin countries to 31 destination provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in China. Furthermore, the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) method is applied to analyse the influential factors of the formation of market groupings in the network. The results show that: (1) The connections within the destination-destination network and the origin-origin country network show a fluctuating increase trend. (2) Eastern provincial destinations occupy important positions in the network, and central and western destinations have played increasingly important roles in recent years. (3) Japan, South Korea, and the United States are the most important origin countries, and markets in Europe and Oceania have great potential. (4) Two market groupings led by Russia and Asian countries are relatively stable, while other origin countries have no specific regional preference. (5) Geographical distance exerts the most significant impact on the formation of market groupings, followed by tourism resources, economic development, and traffic accessibility.

Investigating the quality of Iranian hospitals’ websites and their association to the Province’s share of medical tourism

BackgroundNowadays, virtual methods are among the most important and influential marketing instruments in various industries, such as medical tourism. This study aims to investigate the quality of Iranian hospitals’ web pages and their association with the province’s share of the medical tourism industry in Iran and the ownership type of hospitals.MethodsIn this analytical cross-sectional study, the quality of hospitals’ websites was investigated through a 36-item self-administered questionnaire which was validated, and its reliability was verified (Cronbach’s alpha = 74%.). The questionnaire was categorized into three sections: hospital services and facilities, hospital’s medical tourism-related services, and tourism information of the destination province. The census method was used for data collection. Data analysis was performed using the independent t-test and analysis of variance in SPSS software (version 25), and a P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of, 102 hospitals with an IPD (International Patients Department) were included in the study, and 21.6% did not have an English-language page and were excluded from the study. The mean total score was 47 ± 7.5, indicating low-quality content. Public hospitals had lower quality scores than semi-private and private hospitals. The total quality score, information about the hospital and its services, and the score of information about medical tourism-related services were associated with the province’s share of national medical tourism.ConclusionAccording to the obtained results and the possible role of website quality in increasing provinces’ medical tourism development, the IPD page on hospital websites should be revised and regularly updated to make them more informative for prospective medical tourists.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INTEGRASI PASAR SPASIAL CABAI MERAH DI INDONESIA

Chili is one of the horticultural commodities that have high economic value and very volatile . Red chili production is concentrated on the islands of Sumatra and Java. When there is an imbalance in supply and consumption, it causes parts of Indonesia to have excess or shortage of red chili, which causes inter-provincial trade that causes market integration. The purpose of this study was to analyze the determinant of the red chili spatial market integration in Indonesia. The data used in this research was secondary data calculated using multiple regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that the factors that determine the spatial market integration of red chili in Indonesia are the population of the original province, the amount of red chili production in the province of destination, and the price of the fuel in the destination province.

Faktor-faktor penentu integrasi pasar daging ayam broiler

Broiler chicken meat is a strategic commodity that is growing rapidly. This product occupies the highest consumption rating of meat products. This study examines the factors of broiler chicken market integration in Indonesia. The data used is secondary data for the monthly time series, which is 72 months, in the period January 2015-December 2020. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis approaches. The results show that a significant variable affects the integration of the broiler chicken meat market in Indonesia: the amount of production in the destination province.

Educational opportunity and children's migration: Evidence from China's Gaokao reform for children of migrant families

This paper estimates the effect of the Gaokao reform on children's migration. The reform relaxes the Hukou restrictions in the Gaokao system, allowing eligible migrant children to take the Gaokao in the destination province and be admitted to higher education institutions based on the same criteria as local students. Using the CMDS 2011–2017 dataset and the difference-in-differences approach, we find that the reform significantly increases children's migration probability; the positive effect is weaker in provinces with more stringent requirements. While Gaokao reform does not affect parents’ decisions of cross-province migration or destination of migration, parents’ extend their migration duration.

Determinants of Migration Flows in Highly Skilled Migrants Interprovince in Indonesia

Migration and regional inequality are two interrelated concepts. Inequality between regions can lead to migration. High-skilled migration, or migration of high-quality human resources, has great potential to reduce interregional disparities by helping development in the destination area. However, in reality, the flow of high-skilled migration tends to lead to more advanced provinces, especially the capital and its surroundings. This condition causes disparities between regions to increase. This study analyzes the phenomenon of internal high-skilled migration between provinces in Indonesia at a macro level using a modified gravity model approach and is estimated using the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. The results of this study show that the number of high-skilled populations in the provinces of origin and destination, geographical distance, average wages for workers, and the percentage of agricultural workers in the destination province, as well as the stock of migrants, influence the flow of high skilled migration between provinces in Indonesia. Increasing workers’ wages, access to transportation and information/social networks, as well as industrialization outside Java, need to be carried out to attract high-skilled migrants or keep high-skilled workers to remain in their provinces to realize equity between regions.

Leadership rotations and the convergence of subnational economic policies in China: evidence from provincial government work reports

Abstract This article examines how China’s subnational leadership rotations have affected local governments’ policy choices. Utilizing the annual government work reports that outline provincial policy priorities, I find that shuffled leaders choose similar economic policies across different provinces, and this translates into similarities in several policy outcomes. I then show that such policy isomorphism has been driven mainly by convergence in which topics these reports cover, rather than by convergence in how the provincial leaders discuss a given policy issue. However, according to the event study estimates, this economic policy similarity may disappear soon after the shuffled leader leaves office, thus implying that the policy convergence might be transitory. One plausible explanation for these findings is that leadership rotations often indicate that the central government favors the policies implemented by these shuffled leaders, so they tend to replicate some of these policies after moving to the destination province. (JEL H11, H70)

Abattoir-Based Serological Surveillance and Spatial Risk Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Brucellosis, and Q Fever in Lao PDR Large Ruminants.

A national animal disease surveillance network initiated by the Lao PDR government is adopted and reinforced by a joint research project between the National Animal Health Laboratory (NAHL), the Department of Livestock and Fisheries (DLF), and the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU). The network is strengthened by staff training and practical exercises and is utilised to provide zoonotic or high-impact disease information on a national scale. Between January and December 2020, large ruminant samples are collected monthly from 18 abattoirs, one in each province, by provincial and district agriculture and forestry officers. The surveillance network collected a total of 4247 serum samples (1316 buffaloes and 2931 cattle) over this period. Samples are tested for antibodies against Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Non-Structural Protein (FMD NSP) using commercial ELISA kits and the Rose Bengal test. Seroprevalences of Q fever and brucellosis in large ruminants are low at 1.7% (95% CI: 1.3, 2.1) and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.5, 1.0) respectively, while for FMD NSP it is 50.5% (95% CI: 49.0, 52.0). Univariate analyses show differences in seroprevalences of Q fever between destination (abattoir) province (p-value = 0.005), province of origin (p-value = 0.005), animal type (buffalo or cattle) (p-value = 0.0008), and collection month (p-value = 3.4 × 10−6). Similar to Q fever, seroprevalences of brucellosis were significantly different for destination province (p-value < 0.00001), province of origin (p-value < 0.00001), animal type (p-value = 9.9 × 10−5) and collection month (p-value < 0.00001), plus body condition score (p-value = 0.003), and age (p-value = 0.007). Additionally, risk factors of the FMD NSP dataset include the destination province (p-value < 0.00001), province of origin (p-value < 0.00001), sex (p-value = 7.97 × 10−8), age (p-value = 0.009), collection date (p-value < 0.00001), and collection month (p-value < 0.00001). Spatial analyses revealed that there is no spatial correlation of FMD NSP seropositive animals. High-risk areas for Q fever and brucellosis are identified by spatial analyses. Further investigation of the higher risk areas would provide a better epidemiological understanding of both diseases in Lao PDR. In conclusion, the abattoir serological survey provides useful information about disease exposure and potential risk factors. The network is a good base for field and laboratory staff training in practical technical skills. However, the sustainability of such a surveillance activity is relatively low without an external source of funding, given the operational costs and insufficient government budget. The cost-effectiveness of the abattoir survey could be increased by targeting hotspot areas, reducing fixed costs, and extending the focus to cover more diseases.

Inter‐provincial trade in Argentina: Financial flows and centralism

AbstractThis paper is part of a broader agenda and constitutes a first step to empirically understand the main determinants of the interprovincial trade in Argentina. We use a novel database of regional trade among the 24 Argentinean subnational jurisdictions for 2017. Using a structural gravity model and novel econometric techniques, we analyze the variables influencing trade between the provinces. In addition to the traditional variables of the canonical gravity model, we add some variables of interest that can affect trade between subnational jurisdictions. With a special focus on financial flows, we analyze the impact of the fiscal federalism (redistributive transfers known as coparticipation), income distribution, and household payment methods, among other variables that may be correlated with formal trade. Additionally, we analyze the potential impact of trade concentration in the autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) and Buenos Aires. Interprovincial trade flows are analyzed, considering both origin and destination provinces. The results indicate that coparticipation flows are an important determinant of interprovincial trade, generating relevant (and negative in the origin) spillover effects between the provinces. Also, the high economic and social concentration in CABA and Buenos Aires discourages interprovincial trade.

Seroepidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease using passive surveillance techniques in selected provinces of Lao PDR

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a high-impact, contagious transboundary animal disease that is endemic in Southeast Asia. Abattoir samples were routinely collected in six selected provinces between March and December 2019. A total of 1280 samples of abattoir animals were tested for FMD Non-Structural Protein (NSP) antibodies to indicate natural infections. Overall, 22.8% were seropositive for FMD NSP antibodies while seroprevalence of cattle (n = 469), buffalo (n = 214), and pigs (n = 597) were 44.6%, 35.0%, and 1.3%, respectively. The highest seroprevalence destination province was Xiengkhouang (35.3% of 272 samples), followed by Savannakhet (27.0% of 244 samples). Risk factors for evidence of natural infection identified by a multivariate logistic regression model included age groups (p-value = 0.02) and origin provinces (p-value = 2.8 × 10−5) of the animals. There were significant differences of FMD NSP seroprevalence between age groups and origin provinces of the animals. The odds ratio of a seropositive result in the less than 1 year old group was 2.5 (95% CI; 1.4, 4.4) when compared to the 3–4 years old group, while the odds ratios for animals that originated from Khammouane and Xiengkhouang provinces were 4.5 (95% CI; 1.1, 18.7) and 2.4 (95% CI; 1.4, 4.1), respectively, when compared to Champasak province. Serotype-specific antibody ELISA for 44 NSP antibody–positive samples revealed evidence of FMD serotypes O and A virus circulation in some provinces. Despite the passive abattoir survey providing useful information on FMD virus previous exposure and geographic locations of the animals, timely information on FMD virus circulation and distribution is also crucial to an effective control program. Alternative approaches to increase the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance network are also discussed.

The Impact of Inter-provincial Migration on the Labor Market Outcomes in Two Developed Provinces in South Africa

This study used the South African Census 2011 data to examine the impact of interprovincial migration on the labor market outcomes in the Western Cape and Gauteng, the two most developed and popular inter-provincial migration destination provinces in South Africa. In both provinces, the residents were divided into four groups: permanent residents, intra-provincial migrants, long-term inter-provincial migrants and short-term inter-provincial migrants. The descriptive statistics indicated that both short- and long-term inter-provincial migrants into the two provinces were likely to be young people aged 15-34 years, unmarried African urban residents with 11-12 educational years on average, coming from households with three members. These interprovincial migrants enjoyed lower unemployment rates than the permanent residents, but the intra-provincial migrants remained the best-performing group with the lowest unemployment rate and highest share of employed persons involved in formal sector activities. The study also conducted a multivariate econometric analysis with probit regressions on labor force participation likelihood, and Heckprobit regressions on employment likelihood (conditional on labor force participation). After controlling for differences in other characteristics (or ceteris paribus), compared to the permanent residents, it was evident that both short- and long-term inter-provincial migrants into Western Cape and Gauteng were about 3% significantly more likely to be employed. After examining migrants from the Eastern Cape to the Western Cape and migrants from Limpopo to Gauteng, the study found that both groups enjoyed a much higher labor force participation rate (above 70%) and lower unemployment rate (30%), compared to individuals who remained in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo (labor force participation rate: 45%; unemployment rate: 38%).

Levels of economic growth and cross-province spread of the COVID-19 in China

BackgroundAfter the first COVID-19 case detected on 8 December 2019 in Wuhan, the Provincial Capital of Hubei, the epidemic quickly spread throughout the whole country of China. Low developmental levels...

Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam

This study examines the effect of extreme weather events on inter-province migration in Vietnam using a migration gravity model. It finds that high rainfall extremes encourage the out-migration of highly educated people but attracts the in-migration of the poorly educated. A possible reason is that high rainfall increases household income from agricultural production but reduces wage income. Thus, high rainfall extremes increase the migration of the highly educated, who mainly have salaried jobs, while attracting the poorly educated, who are mainly self-employed in agricultural work. Low temperature extremes in source provinces reduce out-migration, while low temperature extremes in destination provinces increase in-migration, possibly because very hot weather reduces wages and affect people’s health, and as a result influences migration.

Production and consumption-based primary PM2.5 emissions: Empirical analysis from China’s interprovincial trade

Cross-regional trade activities not only facilitate the exchange of products but trigger the transfer of pollutants. In this study, China’s production-based PM2.5 emissions were estimated by compiling sectoral resolution PM2.5 emission inventories. Integrated with a multiregional input-output model, the consumption-based PM2.5 emissions from 30 provinces in 2012 were calculated. Only approximately 14% of the PM2.5 emissions were induced by consumers’ direct usage, while 86% of the emissions were triggered by upstreaming production processes, as quantified by simulation in the structural path analysis model. For specific sectors, ‘other services’ play an important role in direct usage, while ‘nonmetal products’, ‘petroleum refining’, ‘metallurgy’, ‘coal mining’ and ‘chemical industry’ are the dominant PM2.5 emission sectors in subsequent supply chains, which has implications for optimization of the industrial structure as well as for improving energy utilization efficiency to a reasonable level for production processes. Furthermore, this study investigated consumption-based PM2.5 emissions transfer from original to destination provinces, which varied from 9%∼84%. Most of the consumption PM2.5 emissions dominant provinces located in east coastal of China, outsourcing PM2.5 emissions to Central and Western China, such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Guizhou and Hebei, each accounted for more than 50% of their total PM2.5 emissions. In addition, all provinces except Xinjiang present spatial connections with surrounding provinces through close trade cooperation. The findings of this research provide a solid foundation for identifying different provinces’ responsibility for air pollutant control and proposing insightful observations to help policymakers to formulate associated cross-regional PM2.5 emissions reduction and control measures.

Economic Inequality, Regional Development, and Internal Migration in Indonesia

This study aims to probe the determinants of inter-provincial migration flows in Indonesia and how economic and development changes affect migration patterns. We employ three census periods, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our study finds that an increase in relative inequality between origin and destination provinces decreases inter-provincial migration and relatively high distance elasticity in Indonesia leads to high migration cost. People are more inclined to migrate due to push factors as opposed to pull factors from the destination region, thus indicating a strong relationship between the level of regional development and the willingness of people to migrate.

Water–energy nexus of the Eastern Route of China's South-to-North Water Transfer Project

Abstract This article investigates the energy intensity and related impacts of the Eastern Route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project, based on the concept of the water–energy nexus. It finds that from November 2013 to May 2017 a total of 2.35 billion kWh of energy was consumed to transfer 15.5 billion m3 water driven by a large-scale system of pumping stations. This energy production required 7.4 million m3 of virtual water and emitted 1.93 MtCO2e of carbon. An average water–energy nexus ratio of 0.05% indicates that transferring 100 m3 of water consumes 0.05 m3 of virtual water due to the electricity consumption of the Eastern Route's pumping stations. It is estimated that to transfer 7.3 billion m3 water by 2030, this mega project will consume 1.35 billion kWh of energy, 4.6 million m3 of virtual water and emit 0.94 MtCO2e of carbon. These findings and scenario analysis demonstrate that strategies are needed for mitigating the energy intensity of the Eastern Route, such as improved pumping efficiency, reduced water loss during water delivery, decreased water quotas, and promotion of other, less carbon-intensive water sources in destination provinces.

Why do Skilled People Migrate to Cities? A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Understanding the Impact of the Social Environment on the Attraction of Human Capital to Cities in Turkey

The main focus of this study is on understanding the importance of social dynamics of cities for attracting human capital to urban regions. The principal research question of the article is “if there is a spatial dependency on neighbouring provinces’ social environmental qualities in human capital at­traction for Turkey.” It is believed that developmental disparities among regions can be overcome with a balanced distribution of human capital. In this article, first the concept and importance of human capital and its evolution throughout economic history are explained in order to emphasize the relationship between development and human capital for urban regions. The literature review consists of migration models developed and used in previous studies and recent literature that together consider human capital and its flow with spatial analysis. A review of migration models helps structure the quantitative models’ building blocks, or the concepts to be quantified. Literature that discusses human capital and spatial analysis, at the same time, guides the study in implementing the most appropriate analysis technique. The literature discussed in the paper is focused on human capital migration and urban attractiveness. Its similarity with the current study work is the focus on the relationship between urban environment components and human capital. However, the cited studies lack the “spatial/relational” approach to urban regions which means that the effects of developments in settlements neighbouring the region were ignored. The contribution which we intend to make with the current study is to adapt the spatial econometric analysis to the problem of human capital attraction. Literature review is followed by data used in the empirical part of the study, and brief information on spatial econometric analysis. Next, findings of the empirical spatial econometric analysis of Turkey’s 81 urban regions are provided. Overall, the analysis indicated that undergraduate and post-graduate migrants care about the social prosperity of the neighbouring environment of destination province. The last part concludes with an interpretation of empirical study findings and discusses relevant urban and regional policy instruments.

The use of air travel data for predicting dengue importation to China: A modelling study

Dengue virus importation from abroad is still the main driver of dengue incidence in China. Using global flight data to model importation may improve our understanding and prediction of dengue virus importation and onward transmission. A retrospective analysis was performed of surveillance cases of dengue infections imported to China and volume of air traffic to China for the years 2005 through 2014, inclusive. The data were aggregated by year, destination province, and source country. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and a random effects negative binomial model was created to predict the number of imported cases based on the volume of travelers from dengue-endemic countries. There were 1,822 cases of imported dengue infections over the study period. Most imported cases are from a small number of high-incidence countries with a large volume of travel to China, most notably Myanmar (22% of cases). The number of imported cases of dengue infections increased by 5.9% for every 10% increase in travel volume from dengue-endemic countries. Patterns of air travel have a measurable impact on the importation of dengue to China. Modelling dengue importation risk may be a useful strategy to direct public health surveillance and interventions.

DETERMINANT FACTORS OF SHALLOT SPATIAL MARKET INTEGRATION IN INDONESIA

This paper is aimed at analyzing determinant factors of spatial market integration at producer level in Indonesia. This study uses secondary data cross-section on the price at producer level. The producer market that analyzed was 28 provinces of origin and destination of shallot distribution obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics publication about Survei Pola Distribusi (POLDIS) Perdagangan Komoditas Bawang merah Indonesia 2015. All data were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Result of this research shows that factor determining spatial market integration is total production of destination provinces. Keywords: Shallot, Determinant Factors, Spatial Market Integration, Producer

Unveiling the internal migration dynamics in Ecuador between 2001 and 2010

ABSTRACTThis paper unveils the dynamics of internal migration in Ecuador using data from the last two census. The use of chord diagrams allows one to identify the changing patterns of migration between provinces. In the last period, internal migration decreased notably, and traditional destination provinces lost importance in favour of a more balanced redistribution of people within the country.