Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam

Abstract

This study examines the effect of extreme weather events on inter-province migration in Vietnam using a migration gravity model. It finds that high rainfall extremes encourage the out-migration of highly educated people but attracts the in-migration of the poorly educated. A possible reason is that high rainfall increases household income from agricultural production but reduces wage income. Thus, high rainfall extremes increase the migration of the highly educated, who mainly have salaried jobs, while attracting the poorly educated, who are mainly self-employed in agricultural work. Low temperature extremes in source provinces reduce out-migration, while low temperature extremes in destination provinces increase in-migration, possibly because very hot weather reduces wages and affect people’s health, and as a result influences migration.