Human Population Density Research Articles

The declines of heterogeneity and stability in diatom communities are associated with human activity.

Anthropogenic forcing caused the biodiversity loss and stability decline of communities. There is still controversy over whether the decline in biodiversity will lead to a decrease in community stability. The stability of biological communities is related to both biodiversity and structure, and this paper aims to reveal the human impacts on diatom communities' biodiversity and structure. We studied the richness, β-diversity and network distance of diatom communities in Qinghai-Xizang, Yunnan-Sichuan and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China through empirical dataset and simulation method. The results showed that the diatoms richness in the Qinghai-Xizang and the Yunnan-Sichuan region was lower and the network distance was higher than that of the Lower Yangtze River Basin. β-diversity in the Lower Yangtze River Basin was the lowest and the diatom network distance responds negatively to human population densities in China. The simulation showed that the network distance kept constant during random species loss, and declined while specialist species were lost or replaced by generalist species. The results suggested diatom communities' homogeneity and stability decline were associated with human activities. Human impacts may cause biodiversity loss targeted to specialist species or no biodiversity loss while generalist species replace those specialist species. This study showed that how diversity changes determined ecological stability depends on the type of species changes.

Research on habitat quality assessment and decision-making based on Semi-supervised Ensemble Learning method—Daxia River Basin, China

Habitat quality is an indicator of the ecological evolution of a region, and evaluating habitat quality utilizing Machine Learning approaches can reflect the ecological status of a region more objectively. Gridded statistical ecological factors in the study region were utilized to build the Ecological Information State Layer (EISL) in the grid space. Calculate the Environmental Quality Index (EQI) of the sampled grid to evaluate the performance index of the models on the sampled grid. The model with the optimal performance index is selected for the task of habitat quality classification in the research region, and then especially decision-making advice is offered by inverting the degree of influence of ecological elements on habitat quality. The results show that: (1) The Semi-supervised Ensemble Learning model (Tri-training) Accuracy, Kappa coefficient, and F1-score are 0.93, 0.89, and 0.92, respectively, as the optimal model for the habitat quality classification task. (2) Based on the results of the ecological categories calculation, the current ecosystem quality of the southwestern section of the Daxia River Basin is maintained as a positive indicator. the ecosystem quality inside the living space centered on the cities of Linxia and Hezuo shows negative indicator changes. (3) The calculation results of the inverse importance of ecological factors show that vegetation index and human population density are the key factors impacting the habitat quality of the Daxia River Basin. In the ecological management of Daxia River Basin, the degree of spatial aggregation of people's settlements should be reduced while preserving and expanding vegetation cover. Using Tri-training's comprehensive analysis of multiple ecological factors, regional habitat quality can be accurately assessed.

Environmental, climatic, anthropogenic features of Filoviruses Disease Outbreak: a systematic review

Abstract Background Filoviruses, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, are a threat to global public health due to their transmission and mortality rates. Despite recent advances in forecasting infectious disease limited knowledge of the ecological niche of Filoviruses still hinders research progress. Studying the ecological context of Filoviruses can provide important information for the development of international preparedness and surveillance systems. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review according to the PRISMA 2020 checklist. A search of relevant articles was performed in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Eligible articles were any type of publication, published in English between 2013 and 2023, discussing environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors of Filovirus disease outbreaks. Results A total of 5818 records were screened, and 41 articles were included. Of the 41 studies analyzed, 21 reported an analysis of risk factors related to Ebola Viruses, 8 of Marburg Virus, and 12 analyzed multiple species of Filoviruses. Of the 41 studies analyzed, 16 also developed risk prediction models aimed at stratifying geographic areas. We collected a total of 19 risk factors divided in 4 categories: environmental risk factors (e.g., forest coverage, cropland coverage), climate risk factors (e.g., annual temperature range, seasonal temporal frequency) population risk factors (e.g., human population density, urban population increase), cultural and behavioral risk factors (e.g., bushmeat trade, use of traditional burial practice). The analyzed models primarily use climate and environmental data, with population and cultural factors being considered to a lesser extent. Conclusions The identification of potential predictors of Filovirus disease outbreak is crucial for geographic mapping of high-risk areas. A multidisciplinary Planetary Health approach is needed to advance research and to develop targeted surveillance systems to prevent pandemic outbreaks. Key messages • Environmental and climate factors play a crucial role in filovirus spillover events, but population and cultural factors should also be considered in future research and risk prediction models. • To improve prediction of pandemic outbreaks more research on disease emergence and transmission dynamics, better surveillance of disease in humans and animals, and better access to data are required.

Predicting the geographical distribution of the Persian leopard, Panthera pardus tulliana, a rare and endangered species

The endangered Persian Leopard, Panthera pardus tulliana, is a top predator and keystone species whose small, fragmented population is still distributed across the Zagros Mountain regions of northeastern Iraq. Their population is under threat from habitat loss and fragmentation, illegal hunting, prey depletion, minefields, and conflicts with humans. Conservation efforts require accurate information on the current and future distribution patterns of this species. Therefore, this study aimed at establishing new baseline data based on the maximum entropy model (Maxent) combined with GIS techniques, field surveys (i.e., camera traps, kill reports, carcasses), and relevant environmental variables obtained from multiple sources. Modeling demonstrated that the current suitable habitat distribution of the species comprises 12.4 % (6318 km2) of the total area of the study area (50971 km2). Of these suitable areas, 0.8 % (431 km2) were categorized as high suitable, 3.8 % (1935 km2) as medium suitable, and 7.8 % (3953 km2) as low suitable. Overall, as demonstrated by modeling under the preselected environmental predictors, the suitable habitat distribution of the Persian Leopard would contract by 1.3 % (666 km2) and 1.7 % (843 km2) in 2070 under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. There would be a latitudinal shift, and the distance between the current and future centroids would be around 43.492 km. This spatial shift would be mostly towards the Zagros Mountains in the northeast of Iraq, alongside the Iran-Iraq border. The most important variables that contributed significantly to the distribution of the species across the study area included slope (47.3 %), temperature seasonality (bio4) (27.9 %), land cover (7.7 %), human population density (4.2 %), soil pH (2.7 %), temperature (Bio2) (2.7 %), and NDVI (1.8 %). These results could have great implications for establishing strategic protected areas not only for the target species of this study but for a wide range of plant communities and prey species (e.g., goats, wild boar) across the mountain ecosystem.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Landscape Ecological Risk and Driving Factors: A Case Study in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Landscape ecological risk is considered the basis for regional ecosystem management decisions. Thus, it is essential to understand the spatial and temporal evolutionary patterns and drivers of landscape ecological risk. However, existing studies lack exploration of the long-term time series and driving mechanisms of landscape ecological risk. Based on multi-type remote sensing data, this study assesses landscape pattern changes and ecological risk in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1990 to 2020 and ranks the driving factors using a geographical detector. We then introduce the geographically weighted regression model to explore the local spatial contributions of driving factors. Our results show: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the agricultural land decreased, while forest and construction land expanded in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The overall landscape pattern shifted toward aggregation. (2) The landscape ecological risk exhibited a decreasing trend. The areas with relatively high landscape ecological risk were primarily concentrated in the main urban area in the western region of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and along the Yangtze River, with apparent spatial aggregation. (3) Social and natural factors affected landscape ecological risk. The main driving factors were human interference, annual average temperature, population density, and annual precipitation; interactions occurred between the drivers. (4) The influence of driving factors on landscape ecological risk showed spatial heterogeneity. Spatially, the influence of social factors (human interference and population density) on landscape ecological risk was primarily positively correlated. Meanwhile, the natural factors’ (annual average temperature and annual precipitation) influence on landscape ecological risk varied widely in spatial distribution, and the driving mechanisms were more complex. This study provides a scientific basis and reference for landscape ecological risk management, land use policy formulation, and optimization of ecological security patterns.

Social development and biodiversity conservation synergies for the West African giraffe in a human–wildlife landscape

SummaryThe West African giraffe is restricted to Niger, but historically it inhabited much of the Sudano-Sahelian zone. The population is concentrated in the ‘Giraffe Zone’ (GZ), an unprotected area with a high human population density. Since the mid-1990s, the giraffe population has steadily increased mainly due to the collective social and conservation initiatives of the government, non-governmental organizations and the local community. In 2018, the first West African giraffe satellite population was established through the reintroduction of eight individuals into Gadabedji Biosphere Reserve (GBR). In this study, we aimed to describe the current state of human–giraffe coexistence, human attitudes towards giraffe and human habits of natural resources use through a questionnaire survey conducted in the GZ and GBR. Although most of the GZ respondents highlighted crop damage caused by giraffe, we also found overall positive attitudes towards the animals. Most respondents from both sites expressed positive attitudes towards giraffe, highlighting that they do not see poaching as a major current threat. However, the giraffe population continues to be directly threatened by habitat loss through firewood cutting, livestock overgrazing and agriculture expansion. Long-term conservation of the West African giraffe is dependent on better habitat protection and understanding of current human–giraffe coexistence through ensuring that giraffe presence will benefit local communities across their range.

Spatiotemporal organization of cryptic North American Culex species along an urbanization gradient.

Landscape heterogeneity creates diverse habitat and resources for mosquito vectors of disease. A consequence may be varied distribution and abundance of vector species over space and time dependent on niche requirements.We tested the hypothesis that landscape heterogeneity driven by urbanization influences the distribution and relative abundance of Culex pipiens, Cx. restuans, and Cx. quinquefasciatus, three vectors of West Nile virus (WNv) in the eastern North American landscape. We collected 9,803 cryptic Culex from urban, suburban, and rural sites in metropolitan Washington, District of Columbia, during the months of June-October, 2019-2021. In 2021, we also collected mosquitoes in April and May to measure early-season abundance and distribution. Molecular techniques were used to identify a subset of collected Culex to species (n = 2,461). Ecological correlates of the spatiotemporal distribution of these cryptic Culex were examined using constrained and unconstrained ordination.Seasonality was not associated with Culex community composition in June-October over three years but introducing April and May data revealed seasonal shifts in community composition in the final year of our study. Culex pipiens were dominant across site types, while Cx. quinquefasciatus were associated with urban environments, and Cx. restuans were associated with rural and suburban sites. All three species rarely coexisted.Our work demonstrates that human-mediated land-use changes influence the distribution and relative abundance of Culex vectors of WNv, even on fine geospatial scales. Site classification, percent impervious surface, distance to city center, and longitude predicted Culex community composition. We documented active Culex months before vector surveillance typically commences in this region, with Culex restuans being most abundant during April and May. Active suppression of Cx. restuans in April and May could reduce early enzootic transmission, delay the seasonal spread of WNv, and thereby reduce overall WNv burden. By June, the highest risk of epizootic spillover of WNv to human hosts may be in suburban areas with high human population density and mixed Culex assemblages that can transmit WNv between birds and humans. Focusing management efforts there may further reduce human disease burden.

Where do they live? Predictive geographic distribution of Tadarida brasiliensis brasiliensis (Chiroptera, Molossidae) in South America

Tadarida brasiliensis, the Brazilian free-tailed bat, is an insectivorous molossid with a wide distribution in the Americas. It occurs in different ecosystems and uses varied shelters, from caves and crevices to human constructions, such as roofs and ceilings. Despite its wide distribution, there are several sampling gaps that make it difficult to identify the regions where the species occurs. This is a particular problem for the subspecies T. brasiliensis brasiliensis in South America, a region with few studies in comparison to North America. Considering these problems involved with identifying the distribution of T. b. brasiliensis in South America, we inferred its distribution based on 121 confirmed occurrences for the subspecies. We created a species distribution model (SDM) using the ensemble approach from the combination of BIOCLIM, SVM, GLM and MaxEnt algorithms. The resulting model suggested that the subspecies is unlikely to occur in the Amazon region and has a positive affinity with human population density, topography, a lower vegetation index, and the precipitation in the driest month. Our results show there is a large continuous area suitable for T. b. brasiliensis in central and eastern South America, with interruptions and narrow areas toward Central America. The population in this last area is separated from a smaller site in Chile by Andean deserts, snowy peaks, and high-altitude points. Our results demonstrated that along its distribution suitable habitat for T. b. brasiliensis is not continuous. The discontinuities in populations require further investigation to determine if there are phylogeographic consequences for the species.

Applying geostatistical hotspot analyses to a ‘double-invaded’ plant–pest co-occurrence scenario

SummaryInvasive alien species represent a multifaceted management problem in terms of threats to biodiversity and ecosystems and their impacts on agriculture and human well-being. Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive alien plant in Europe that affects the human population as its already highly allergenic pollen can interact with air pollutants, resulting in detrimental effects on health. In this context, the invasive beetle Ophraella communa was proposed as a biocontrol agent of A. artemisiifolia, as it feeds on its leaves, leading to a decrease in pollen production. This paper takes advantage of the different co-occurrence classes obtained by the ecological niche models inferred for both of these species based on current and future climatic conditions. We integrate them with spatial data regarding major air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter). We couple this information with European human population density data at a narrow territorial scale to infer current and future statistically significant hotspots of health risk. The Netherlands and the UK host the widest hotspots within their national territory for both current (7.09% and 3.54%, respectively) and future (15.04% and 6.70%, respectively) scenarios. Considering the alarming results obtained for some areas, the monitoring and biocontrol of A. artemisiifolia should be applied as a European strategy.

Landscape-level determinants of butterfly species richness in northern Europe: A country-wide survey reveals the paramount importance of forest land

Human-induced changes in habitat amount and quality constitute the key driver behind negative trends in global biodiversity. Conservation actions must be based on solid knowledge of the factors affecting species richness in the remaining habitat fragments. Besides local characteristics, it is critical to consider a broader spatial context when evaluating habitat quality. Here we present an analysis of landscape-level determinants of butterfly species richness based on a country-wide survey in Estonia, representing the northern European forest zone. This study compares favourably to previous research in its scope (over 1200 systematically selected sites), and provides a relatively ‘natural’ reference point for the analyses based on areas with higher human population density. The number of butterfly species locally recorded was sought to be explained by variables describing the surroundings of the study sites at four spatial scales. The proportion of forest land was by far the strongest factor (positively) affecting the number of butterfly species recorded, followed by soil alkalinity. Notably, the effects of forest land area at the smallest (in a radius of 250 m) and largest (2000 m) spatial scales were partly independent of each other. The former likely reflects immediate habitat quality while the latter should be related to the colonisation-extinction balance in the metapopulation context. The correlates of anthropogenic pressure (e.g., urbanization, roads, agriculture) had little effect. The results highlight the key role of designing responsible forestry practices in the regional context of nature conservation.

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

Exposure assessment to bisphenol A (BPA) and its analogues bisphenol S (BPS) and bisphenol F (BPF) in wild boars by hair analysis

Bisphenols are widely used in various branches of industry for the production of plastics. They penetrate to the natural environment and thus living organisms. As endocrine disruptors, bisphenols have adverse effects on various internal organs and systems. Contrary to humans, the knowledge of the exposure of wild terrestrial mammals to bisphenols is extremely limited.Therefore, this study for the first time assessed the exposure level of wild boars to three bisphenols commonly used in industry (i.e. bisphenol A - BPA, bisphenol S - BPS and bisphenol F - BPF) using hair sample analysis in liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS).The presence of BPA and/or BPS has been noted in the samples collected from >80 % of animals included in the study (n = 54), while the presence of BPF was not found in any sample. At least one of the bisphenols was present in every sample tested. Mean concentrations of BPA and BPS in the hair of wild boars were 151.40 ± 135.10 pg/mg dry weight (dw.) and 29.40 ± 36.97 pg./mg dw, respectively. Concentrations of BPA and BPS in females were statistically higher than in males (p < 0.05). Moreover, statistically significantly higher concentration levels of BPA (and not BPS) in the areas with higher degree of industrialization and higher human population density were also found.This is the first study concerning the use of hair samples to assess the exposure of wild terrestrial mammals to bisphenols. The obtained results show that an analysis of the hair may be a useful tool of biomonitoring bisphenols in wild animals. The presence of BPA and BPS in wild boar hair in relatively high concentration also suggests that these substances may have an influence on the health status not only in humans and aquatic animals, but also in wild terrestrial mammals. However, many aspects connected with this issue are not clear and require further study.

Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) attack occurrence on humans in Nepal

Abstract The negative impact of large carnivore presence in human‐dominated landscapes manifests as livestock depredation and in extreme cases as attacks on humans. In the case of conflict with leopards in Nepal, attacks resulting in human fatality have become more frequent over time, thus creating an urgent socio‐ecological and management issue. We estimated the occurrence of leopard attacks in Nepal from human‐leopard conflict cases reported in the media. We used occupancy models to analyse data collected from online news reports on incidents of leopard attacks on humans to explore drivers of leopard attacks on a landscape scale. Our results suggest that the probability of occurrence of leopard attack is associated with human population density, terrain ruggedness and livestock density. The human population density effect may be indicative of a density‐dependent relationship, where attacks are more likely in areas where an increased abundance of humans increases encounter rates with leopards. The positive effect of livestock density suggests that livestock may be drawing leopards into human settlements, and consequently increasing the likelihood of attacks on humans. Terrain ruggedness might be offering ideal conditions to facilitate attacks on humans, for example remoteness and high amounts of cover to launch ambush attacks. We provide inference and insights into key determinants of leopard attacks on humans on a landscape scale. These insights can be used to guide future research, inform mitigation measures to reduce leopard attacks and foster a better understanding of the interaction between people and leopards. This study demonstrates the applicability and novelty of using a hierarchical modelling framework applied to freely and publicly available media reports to inform the applied management of human‐wildlife conflict at a national scale. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Ecological Barriers for an Amphibian Pathogen: A Narrow Ecological Niche for Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in an Asian Chytrid Hotspot.

The chytrid fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) and B. dendrobatidis (Bd) are driving amphibian extinctions and population declines worldwide. As their origins are believed to be in East/Southeast Asia, this region is crucial for understanding their ecology. However, Bsal screening is relatively limited in this region, particularly in hotspots where Bd lineage diversity is high. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive Bsal screening involving 1101 individuals from 36 amphibian species, spanning 17 natural locations and four captive facilities in the biodiversity-rich Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GAR). Our PCR assays yielded unexpected results, revealing the complete absence of Bsal in all tested samples including 51 individuals with Bd presence. To understand the potential distribution of Bsal, we created niche models, utilizing existing occurrence records from both Asia and Europe. These models estimated potential suitable habitats for Bsal largely in the northern and southwestern parts of the GAR. Although Bsal was absent in our samples, the niche models identified 10 study sites as being potentially suitable for this pathogen. Interestingly, out of these 10 sites, Bd was detected at 8. This suggests that Bsal and Bd could possibly co-exist in these habitats, if Bsal were present. Several factors seem to influence the distribution of Bsal in Asia, including variations in temperature, local caudate species diversity, elevation, and human population density. However, it is climate-related factors that hold the greatest significance, accounting for a notable 60% contribution. The models propose that the specific climatic conditions of arid regions, primarily seen in the GAR, play a major role in the distribution of Bsal. Considering the increased pathogenicity of Bsal at stable and cooler temperatures (10-15 °C), species-dependent variations, and the potential for seasonal Bd-Bsal interactions, we emphasize the importance of periodic monitoring for Bsal within its projected range in the GAR. Our study provides deeper insights into Bsal's ecological niche and the knowledge generated will facilitate conservation efforts in amphibian populations devastated by chytrid pathogens across other regions of the world.

Shift in habitat selection during natal dispersal in a long‐lived raptor species

Animals select their habitat along environmental gradients, but the mechanisms that constrain the ecological requirements of an individual can differ between life stages. Dispersal is a key demographic process that determines gene flow and alters species distributions, yet few empirical studies have examined whether habitat selection in animals is changing during dispersal. In this study, we examined changes in habitat preferences during natal dispersal of red kites Milvus milvus, a European raptor species. By deploying solar‐powered GPS‐GSM transmitters on nestlings, we continuously tracked individuals up to six years (2015–2020), from fledging to settlement. We applied habitat selection functions (HSF) to the tracking data using hierarchical generalized additive models, a flexible method which combines individual‐ and population‐level inference, while allowing for the contrast of the prospecting and settlement phases. During the prospecting phase (n = 204 birds), individuals were less responsive to their environment than during the settlement phase, resulting in a predicted wide distribution in western Europe. During the settlement phase, individuals (n = 78 birds) selected a narrower range of environmental gradients, while avoiding areas of high elevation, steep topographic slopes, high human population density and highly heterogeneous landscapes. During this phase, individuals were also more philopatric, i.e. they were more inclined to choose an environment closer to their natal area, than during the prospecting phase. Suitable habitats predicted during settlement were much more spatially contrasted than during prospecting. Our study provides empirical evidence that habitat selection changes across natal dispersal phases in a long‐lived species, indicating that species conservation strategies should account for different environmental constraints before and after settlement. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of long‐term tracking data, with sufficient sample size, to study the link between habitat selection and natal dispersal.

The 2013 Chikungunya outbreak in the Caribbean was structured by the network of cultural relationships among islands.

In 2013, the Caribbean underwent an unprecedented epidemic of Chikungunya that affected 29 islands and mainland territories throughout the Caribbean in the first six months. Analysing the spread of the epidemic among the Caribbean islands, we show that the initial patterns of the epidemic can be explained by a network model based on the flight connections among islands. The network does not follow a random graph model and its topology is likely the product of geo-political relationships that generate increased connectedness among locations sharing the same language. Therefore, the infection propagated preferentially among islands that belong to the same cultural domain, irrespective of their human and vector population densities. Importantly, the flight network topology was also a more important determinant of the disease dynamics than the actual volume of traffic. Finally, the severity of the epidemic was found to depend, in the first instance, on which island was initially infected. This investigation shows how a simple epidemic model coupled with an appropriate human mobility model can reproduce the observed epidemiological dynamics. Also, it sheds light on the design of interventions in the face of the emergence of infections in similar settings of naive subpopulations loosely interconnected by host movement. This study delves into the feasibility of developing models to anticipate the emergence of vector-borne infections, showing the importance of network topology, bringing valuable methods for public health officials when planning control policies. Significance statement: The study shows how a simple epidemic model associated with an appropriate human mobility model can reproduce the observed epidemiological dynamics of the 2014 Chikungunya epidemic in the Caribbean region. This model sheds light on the design of interventions in the face of the emergence of infections in similar settings of naive subpopulations loosely interconnected by the host.

Metagenomic insights into the functional microbial diversity of the lower stretch of the River Ganga: mapping antibiotic and metal resistance genes

The banks of the lower stretch of River Ganga are home to several towns and megapolis representing high density of human population. A stretch of 50 km represented by prefixed stations of the lower part of Ganga (Ganga Environmental Time Series- GETS) was monitored spatiotemporally using eDNA metagenome-based Nanopore sequencing to elucidate structure of microbial communities along with mapping of antibiotic-resistant genes (ARGs), metal resistance genes (MRGs) and mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Besides, in situ environmental parameters, concentration of dissolved nutrients, metals and metalloids were measured. The concentration of dissolved oxygen ranged from 3.4–6.2 mg l−1, indicating deteriorating water quality corresponding to high population density. Dissolved nitrate concentrations were higher in some stations reflecting direct release of untreated municipal sewage into the river. In particular, concentration of metals such as Cd (2.34–38.52 ppb) and metalloids such as As (0–218.7 ppb) were found to be alarmingly high in surface water. Gammaproteobacteria was encountered ubiquitously while rare bacterioplankton represented by eleven classes showed site specificity. Several genes belonging to ARGs were identified and multidrug resistance genes (MDR) were found in all the studied stations exhibiting high abundance. The ‘hotspots’ of ARGs were widespread, possibly owing to rampant usage of personal health care products that may have contributed to observed ARG abundances. High abundance of MRGs comprising arsenic (∼12%) and copper (∼12%) were also identified showing strong correlations with the abundance of ARGs. Correlation and network analysis revealed the potential role of MGEs in the dissemination of ARGs. ANOSIM and cluster analyses supported patchy distribution patterns of microbial communities. The RDA plot showed possible influences of environmental parameters in shaping the microbial community structure and towards dissemination of functional genes such as ARGs and MRGs in the lower stretch of the River Ganga.

Co-occurrence of climate-change induced and anthropogenic pressures in Central American key biodiversity areas

Central America hosts many key biodiversity areas (KBAs), areas which represent unique and irreplaceable ecosystems of global importance for species conservation. However, large extents of these areas are not under legal protection and could be threatened by pressures from land use change (e.g. deforestation and agricultural expansion), high human population density (e.g. population growth and urban sprawl) and climate-driven biome shifts. Here, we simulated future biome stability under the influence of climate change across KBAs in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hot spot and combined the results with projections of land use and population density up to the end of the 21st century. We applied four forcing scenarios based on two global climate models (GFDL-ESM4 and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0), which represent a range from low to high emission pathways. Our model projected decreased biome stability in 39%–46% of protected areas in KBAs, whereas this number even increased to 59%–60% for unprotected areas in KBAs (depending on the climate scenario). While human interferences in protected parts of KBAs are expected to be limited, large parts of unprotected areas in KBAs were projected to be pressured by multiple factors at once and are reason for concern. In particular, high human population pressures (>10 people km−2) emerged as a main threat over 30%–44% of the unprotected area in KBAs. These were largely accompanied by pressures from land use and sporadically reinforced by pressures from climate-driven biome shifts. Among the hot spots facing multiple high pressures are some of the last tropical dry and montane forest ecosystems in Central America, which stresses the need for urgent conservation action.

Shedding light on trophic interactions: A field experiment on the effect of human population between latitudes on herbivory and predation patterns.

Interactions between species within an ecosystem (e.g. predation and herbivory) play a vital role in sustaining the ecosystem functionality, which includes aspects like pest control and nutrient cycling. Unfortunately, human activities are progressively disrupting these trophic relationships, thereby contributing to the ongoing biodiversity decline. Additionally, certain human activities like urbanization may further impact the intensity of these trophic interactions, which are already known to be influenced by latitudinal gradients. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of whether the impact of human population, used as a proxy for human pressure, differs between latitudes. To test it, we selected 18 study sites at two latitudes (i.e. ~53°N and ~50°N) with varying human population density (HPD). We used artificial caterpillars placed on European beech branches to assess bird predation and took standardized pictures of the leaves to estimate insect herbivory. Remote sensing techniques were used to estimate human pressure. We found that the intensity of bird predation varied in response to HPD, with opposite trends observed depending on the latitude. At our upper latitude, bird predation increased with HPD, while the opposite was observed at the lower latitude. Herbivory was not affected by urbanization and we found higher levels of herbivory in the lower compared to the higher latitude. At the lower latitude, certain species may experience a disadvantage attributed to the urban heat island effect due to their sensitivity to temperature fluctuations. Conversely, at the higher latitude, where minimum temperatures can be a limitation, certain species may benefit from milder winters. Overall, this study highlights the complex and dynamic nature of trophic relationships in the face of human-driven changes to ecosystems. It also emphasizes the importance of considering both human pressure and latitudinal gradients when assessing the ecological consequences of future climate change scenarios, especially in urban environments.

Anthropogenic and environmental factors associated with koala deaths due to dog attacks and vehicle collisions in South-East Queensland, Australia, 2009–2013

Populations of the iconic Australian koala are under constant decline. Their deaths are associated with rapid and extensive urbanization and the fragmentation of habitat areas. Using citizen science data on reported koala mortalities, we quantified the association between anthropogenic and environmental factors and the two leading causes of koala deaths, dog attacks and vehicle collisions. We achieved this objective using a case–control study design to compare the odds of exposure to a given risk factor for cases (a given cause of death) with the odds of exposure to a given risk factor for controls (all other causes of death). Koala deaths due to dog attacks were positively associated with registered dog population density and negatively associated with lot density whereas koala deaths due to vehicle collisions were positively associated with road density (road length per square kilometer) and negatively associated with human population density and distance to primary and secondary roads. The results of this research can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the risk of deaths due to dog attacks, for example by conducting educational awareness programs, promoting registration of dogs and discouraging free roaming of dogs. In a similar manner, in high-risk areas for vehicle collisions, over- or underpasses can be built to facilitate safe movement of koalas for road crossings or speed limits could be introduced to reduce the likelihood of premature koala deaths due to vehicle collisions.