Predicting the geographical distribution of the Persian leopard, Panthera pardus tulliana, a rare and endangered species

Abstract

The endangered Persian Leopard, Panthera pardus tulliana, is a top predator and keystone species whose small, fragmented population is still distributed across the Zagros Mountain regions of northeastern Iraq. Their population is under threat from habitat loss and fragmentation, illegal hunting, prey depletion, minefields, and conflicts with humans. Conservation efforts require accurate information on the current and future distribution patterns of this species. Therefore, this study aimed at establishing new baseline data based on the maximum entropy model (Maxent) combined with GIS techniques, field surveys (i.e., camera traps, kill reports, carcasses), and relevant environmental variables obtained from multiple sources. Modeling demonstrated that the current suitable habitat distribution of the species comprises 12.4 % (6318 km2) of the total area of the study area (50971 km2). Of these suitable areas, 0.8 % (431 km2) were categorized as high suitable, 3.8 % (1935 km2) as medium suitable, and 7.8 % (3953 km2) as low suitable. Overall, as demonstrated by modeling under the preselected environmental predictors, the suitable habitat distribution of the Persian Leopard would contract by 1.3 % (666 km2) and 1.7 % (843 km2) in 2070 under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. There would be a latitudinal shift, and the distance between the current and future centroids would be around 43.492 km. This spatial shift would be mostly towards the Zagros Mountains in the northeast of Iraq, alongside the Iran-Iraq border. The most important variables that contributed significantly to the distribution of the species across the study area included slope (47.3 %), temperature seasonality (bio4) (27.9 %), land cover (7.7 %), human population density (4.2 %), soil pH (2.7 %), temperature (Bio2) (2.7 %), and NDVI (1.8 %). These results could have great implications for establishing strategic protected areas not only for the target species of this study but for a wide range of plant communities and prey species (e.g., goats, wild boar) across the mountain ecosystem.