Demographic Future Research Articles

The unappreciated centrality of ethnoracially mixed Americans to the nation’s demographic future

The ethnoracial future of the United States has been framed as a demographic binary: Whites vs. people of color. The argument here is that this binary distorts by failing to take into adequate account the rapidly growing group of Americans who have been raised in mixed minority and White families, the great majority of the total mixed population. The members of this group generally have distinctive social characteristics: socioeconomic advantages compared to minorities and social integration into milieus with many Whites, as revealed by relatively high rates of marriage to them. However, their identities often encompass their minority heritage. Accordingly, they straddle the society’s major ethnoracial fracture line, creating an in-between social space and connecting, through kinship and other close social relations, both of its sides. However, their numbers are distorted in public national population data, such as census data and population projections; and they are typically counted as part of the non-White population. The recently announced revision of the race/ethnic data standards for the census offers an opportunity to refashion public data in a way that illuminates the important role this mixed group is likely to play in the nation’s demographic future.

“It’s Not About Numbers, It’s About Power”: How Latino Young Adults Imagine the Ethnic and Racial Demographic Future of the United States

The ethnoracial composition of the United States has been changing rapidly in recent decades, a trend expected to persist into the foreseeable future. While quantitative studies have investigated individual attitudes about these shifts, we know little about Americans’ more nuanced and complex views about the projected growth of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and others in the United States and the decline of non-Hispanic Whites over the next 25 to 30 years. Drawing from research about ethnoracial demographic sentiments, the sociology of the future, and U.S. generations, we offer the first qualitative exploration of how Americans imagine the country’s ethnoracial demographic future. Our analyses of intensive interview data gathered from 91 U.S.-born Latinos aged 18 to 29 in Arizona in Winter 2021 focus on how Latino Gen Z and Millennials talk about this future. Latino young adults express optimism about a more heterogeneous nation in 2050 and imagine impacts on diversity, politics and political power, and racial discrimination. However, their optimism is tempered by skepticism about whether population growth among people of color will lead to lasting and meaningful changes, given U.S. history and existing structural inequalities. Latino Gen Z and Millennials also express concerns about current and future White responses to these population dynamics. Understanding how young adults in the United States envision the country’s ethnoracial demographic future has important social, political, and economic implications.

Intra-minority welfare in the post-war period: new expertise on private and public solutions to Finland-Swedish population and welfare problems

ABSTRACT This article introduces the concept of intra-minority welfare and investigates the formation of intra-minority welfare in the post-war period by focusing on the Swedish-speaking minority in Finland, the Finland-Swedes. The post-war era saw a rapid decline in both the percentage of Swedish speakers in Finland and their political influence. To tackle these issues, new organizations were formed to boost the birth rate and secure the welfare of the Finland-Swedish minority. With the expansion of the welfare state, a new generation of Finland-Swedish experts within the fields of social work and demographics also played a prominent role in the intra-minority debate on how public welfare could cater to different segments of the minority. In the article the authors focus on the work conducted in connection to the organizations Svenska Befolkningsförbundet i Finland (The Swedish Population Federation in Finland) and Kårkulla vårdanstalt för sinnesslöa (Kårkulla Care Institution for the Mentally Deficient). By analysing material produced by or about the organizations and experts who worked within them from the 1940s to 1960, they demonstrate how ideas and practices around intra-minority welfare, in particular the demographic future of the Finland-Swedes and care for vulnerable members of the minority, were conceptualized and framed in the post-war period.

An Imagined Shrinking Community: Japanese Nationalism and The Chronology of the Future

ABSTRACT How should we understand the relationship between nationalism and discourses of national decline, and more specifically the discourses of a shrinking nation? Driven by this question, this article highlights how bleak imaginings of the future also work to construct the relationship of the individual to the putative national community, creating forms of sentimental national belonging. This article analyses an emerging genre of best-selling books in Japan, Mirai no nenpyō [The chronology of the future] series, that present a dismal vision of Japan’s national demographic future. Their goal is to provoke a sense of national urgency by encouraging Japanese nationals to feel personally the shrinking nation through imagining its coming consequences for everyday life. Such narrations of an imagined shrinking community act to create a timeless sense of national belonging, with daily lived experience in the imagined future interpreted through the lens of the contracting nation. Importantly, the future that these discourses present is nationalized within boundaries separating it from global developments and intercourse. Ultimately, this form of nationalism is constituted not by dying for the nation, but instead by people seeing the continued stability of everyday life as intricately tied to the fate of the national community.

Russia’s demographic future: forecasts and reality

The article refers to the forecast as a tool to suggest a possible demographic development, which may occur either by itself as a result of the continuation of the current trends, or as a result of the implementation of measures specially taken for this purpose. The history of the development of demographic forecasting, its implementation in the Soviet years and in modern Russia is briefly shown. The practical significance of reliable forecasts for Russia, whose population growth is one of the conditions for preserving its independence, territorial integrity and status as a Great Power, is highlighted. The article expresses the author’s opinion regarding the multivariate forecasts in the demographic sphere and the use of methods that are not peculiar to social phenomena, such as population. Much attention is paid to characteristics of the forecasts compiled by Rosstat and its predecessor Goskomstat of Russia, their comparison with UN forecasts, comparison with the actual population. The final part of the article compares various versions of modern forecasts of Rosstat, substantiates the need to implement those of them that correspond to the practical interests of the country and its regions. The conclusions emphasize that one of the omissions of Rosstat is the use for practical purposes of the so-called average version of the population forecast, which it considers the most realistic. How to achieve implementation of the normative option for the country, if the regions are focused on achieving the population size according to the average option? If we proceed from the strategic goal of Russia’s demographic development, it is obvious that for this, in addition to the forecast— extrapolation, which shows what will happen if the current trends continue, only a normative forecast is needed that indicates the necessary parameters of the population dynamics, corresponding to the national interests of the country.Therefore, for the regions, their population sizes corresponding to high options should be brought up, since only the sum of these values in all regions corresponds to the normative forecast for Russia. This option, rather than the middle one, is or should be provided by the necessary set of population policies.

Environmental Niche and Demographic Modeling of American Chestnut near its Southwestern Range Limit

The unintentional introduction and rapid spread of chestnut blight (caused by Cryphonectria parasitica (Murr.) Barr) in the early 20th century resulted in the demise of American chestnut (Castanea dentata (Marsh.) Borkh.; Fagaceae) as a major component of forest canopies resulting in negative impacts on eastern forest communities. Research efforts over the last century have documented the persistence of occasional trees and root crown/ stump sprouts throughout much of the species' historic range, providing the basis for ongoing breeding of blight-resistant trees and restoration efforts. Here we use environmental niche modeling to investigate whether environmentally suitable habitat remains for remnant trees throughout the southwestern historical range, and to evaluate the reintroduction potential of this relatively understudied part of the historical distribution. We also use stage-structured matrix projection models to investigate the potential demographic future of C. dentata near the historical southwestern range limit based on observations of American chestnut in these areas over the last several decades. We found suitable upland habitat with areas of high forest canopy cover occurs throughout much of the southwestern portion of the historical range and that populations of American chestnut in these areas are predicted to drastically decline over the coming decades. These results highlight the continued presence of suitable C. dentata habitat throughout the southwestern extent of its historical distribution, which should be incorporated into evaluations for future reintroduction, and emphasize the need for efforts to locate, conserve, and introduce genetic material from individuals with locally adapted genotypes into active restoration programs.

Understanding the Quality of Life of Indian Elderly During COVID-19 Pandemic from Universal Design Perspective.

India is rapidly growing towards a demographic future where a significant proportion of the population is over 60 years and above. In the COVID-19 pandemic, the restrictions imposed to minimize the virus transmission have a detrimental effect on the Quality of Life (QoL) of the elderly, limiting their mobility and social interaction. As a result, social isolation and loneliness have become significant health issues. This study attempts to understand the QoL of Indian elderly during COVID-19 pandemic from universal design (UD) perspective. The objectives were: (a) Discuss the QoL of Indian elderly during COVID-19; (b) Identify the factors affecting QoL of elderly during pandemic; (c) Find the link between factors associated with QoL and UD philosophy. These objectives were achieved by desk-based literature review and a pilot study of Solanipuram, a typical urban neighborhood in Roorkee located in Northern India. Personal in-depth interview sessions with limited number of (n=20) participants aged 60 years and above; belonging to upper-middle income group, are conducted and analyzed using the inductive thematic technique. The previous research suggests that, to date, QoL has been described as well-being resulting from physical, functional, emotional, social, and environmental factors. Whereas, UD allows for the inclusion of the 'cultural' dimension into the discussions. Especially in a country with diversity like India, where elderly discusses the impact of physical distancing, limited mobility, and social interactions on their QoL during COVID-19. This study indicates that the application of UD philosophy in response to pandemic can promote well-being and enhance the QoL of elderly.

Road of No Return: Uncertainty, Ambivalence, and Change in IVF Journeys in China

ABSTRACT In this article, I present how in vitro fertilization (IVF) journeys become “bu gui lu” (a “road of no return”) in China. I document the reproductive dilemmas intended parents encounter as they navigate and renegotiate the reproductive futures they desire throughout the process, and characterize the ambivalence caused by the space between individual struggles for conception and the wider demographic anxiety about national falling fertility rates. I argue that the ambivalence experienced by participants throughout their IVF journeys not only reveals the uncertainty they have about their reproductive futures and the ways to achieve them, but it also reflects the broader uncertainty of the demographic future of contemporary China.

Interdisciplinary Approach to Improving the Reproductive Health of Adolescents and Adults

Relevance . The demographic future of our country depends to a large extent on the level of fertility, which is determined by the reproductive health of the population. Aim. To conduct an analysis of the literature on the problems of reproductive health disorders among the young population and scientifically sound areas of prevention of diseases affecting the reproductive functions of the body. Results. Among the causes of reproductive health disorders, sexually transmitted infections, human papillomavirus infection, cervical cancer occupy a special place. Domestic and foreign authors agree on the importance of preventive work with adolescents and the adult population, considering it effective by optimizing reproductive behavior and forming motivation for a healthy lifestyle. Conclusion. Reproductive health can be addressed by eliminating factors that hurt the human reproductive system and preventing reproductive diseases from becoming decompensated, which can contribute to infertility. The ability to have children in the future is the foundation of commitment to prevention and treatment. Awareness of the population will prevent infection with infections that have a direct impact on the reproductive system, their timely diagnosis and treatment will make it possible to minimize the negative impact of infectious-inflammatory processes on the reproductive function of women and men.

Demographic future of Russia in the UN forecasts: "scientific foresight" and reality

The article provides a brief history of the emergence of demographic forecasts, shows their use by the United Nations, the range of countries for which forecasts were made and are being drawn up, considers demographic forecasts that were carried out during the Soviet era and provides a detailed analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia. In contrast to the forecasts of the population of the Soviet Union as a whole, for Russia they initially began to focus on the downward dynamics. It is concluded that over two decades (1996-2015) in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos (excluding the former republics of Yugoslavia), the population as a whole has decreased to 95.5%, while in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos — it increased to 123.8%. The forecasts given in the article are compared with the actual size of the population that has already taken place. Everywhere in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, the actual population is higher than the predicted, and in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos, on the contrary. Comparing the forecasts with the actual population dynamics, the conclusion is substantiated about a noticeable change in the ratio between the two groups of countries united by ethnicity, a decrease in the demographic potential of the Slavic group and its increase in the group with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos. In the final part of the work, it is said that the presented rates of change in the population size in 35 years and then in another 50 years, arising from the UN demographic forecasts for 2050 and 2100, as well as the demographic dynamics in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first 15 years of the new century, indicate that if Russia, like other Slavic countries do not make radical efforts and, accordingly, do not consistently take effective measures to change the demographic trends, then the same thing can happen to Russia as has happened in different centuries to many countries such as Assyria, the Hunnic Empire, etc. The current geopolitical situation in which Russia is, its status as a great power, the country's largest territory in the world, favorable geographical position and colossal natural resources, dictate the need to increase its economic, defense and, naturally, demographic potential.

Impact of the War in Croatia (1991-1995) on the Differentiation of Age Structure between Serbs and Croats: A Case Study of the Banija Region

AbstractAging is the subject of various studies by the scientific community and monitoring by responsible institutions. The intensity of aging and the proportion of age groups among various communities differ due to different socio-economic conditions and characteristics. This article researches the impact of the war in Croatia 1991–1995 and postwar living conditions on the divergence of population aging in the ethnically heterogeneous Banija region. The first postwar census in 2001 recorded a population decline of 44.9% compared to the 1991 census. We analyze the effects of the war on changes in ethnic and age structure, as well as their interrelations. The quantitative and qualitative magnitude of these demographic changes in the inter-census period had a decisive influence on the correlation of age and ethnic structure. The article examines whether the relative share of Serbs or Croats in the total population of a settlement affects the average age of the settlement. The results confirmed that the Serbs are older than the Croats, and are in the phase of the most advanced demographic age. These changes raise the question of the demographic future and the biological viability of the Serbs, who were the majority in the region before the war.

At the Borders of the Body Politic: Fetal Citizens, Pregnant Migrants, and Reproductive Injustices in Immigration Detention

To analyze intersecting power relations in reproductive and immigration politics, I examineGarza v. Hargan(an appellate case regarding unaccompanied immigrant minors’ abortion rights) alongside systemic injustices in immigration detention (e.g., exposure to miscarriage risks, coerced sterilization, shackling). These injustices, I argue, emerge from conflicts and compromises over fetal citizenship within the American radical right. Although pro-life and anti-immigrant discourses assume opposing logics of citizenship, respectively interpreting immigrants’ fetuses as “fetal citizens” or “anchor babies,” these contradictions are neutralized by two techniques. Debilitation (systematic degradation of a disposable population) enables the appearance of fetal protection to coexist with de facto exposure to death, injury, and risk. Paralegality (quasi-legal policy making by enforcement agents) allows situational shifts in the meaning of fetal citizenship and adjustments to the pro-life/anti-immigrant compromise. Both obscure culpability for reproductive injustice, reinforce interlocking oppressions, and control women’s bodies in order to control the body politic’s demographic future.

Scenario Forecasts of Population Dynamics in Some Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose. In Sub-Saharan Africa, UN demographers expect the population to nearly double over the next 30 years (2020–2050), increasing by more than 1 billion people. Demographic changes of such speed and scale will undoubtedly have global implications. The purpose of the work is to calculate a number of scenarios of the demographic future for some countries of the region, taking into account specific features and events of African recent demographic history (in contrast to the UN forecasts). We also aim to assess the difference between various scenarios for each country and the attainability of the “optimistic” scenario.Materials and methods. We develop scenario forecasts for population dynamics in a number of African countries. In all scenarios, mortality dynamics corresponds to the “medium” UN forecast. For the birth rate dynamics, two scenarios were simulated: the optimistic one (birth rate goes from current rates to 2.1 children per woman in 20 years, which was observed in Iran; Rwanda and Ethiopia are more or less close to this scenario) and the inertial one (for countries where birth rate declined in 2005–2015, this decline was simulated to continue at the same rate; for countries where birth rate “froze”, two options were modeled; both projected birth rate decline at 0.1 child per woman annually, either starting immediately or after another 10 years).The results show that all scenarios, even the “optimistic” one, forecast a huge population increase in all countries considered (Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia) over the next 30 years. Slow birth rate decline (or prolonged “stagnation” at high levels) parallel to successful mortality reduction (especially in infants and children) accumulated enormous demographic inertia in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (to calculate its scope, an additional “provisional” scenario was calculated in the work). The difference between the “inertial” and the “optimistic” reaches the size or even sometimes exceeds the current population of the country. This underlines the importance of the governments’ efforts to curb population growth. Ethiopia proves such efforts.Conclusion. Only in Ethiopia the “inertial” and “optimistic” scenarios almost coincide thanks to demographic growth-reducing efforts undertaken there since the early 1990s; thus, in 2005–2015 the birth rate decreased by 1.3 children per woman. This proves that achieving an “optimistic” scenario is possible in African countries, although with considerable and concentrated efforts.

Demografska slika Srbije

Demographically, the population of Serbia is one of the oldest populations in the world and is experiencing pronounced depopulation. Decades-long low birth rates and continuous emigration of mostly young individuals are the principal factors causing demographic aging in Serbia and the current decrease in population. The age structure of the population influences unfavorably any attempts at alleviating the effects of depopulation. Hypothetically, even the highest birth rate in Europe today would not be enough to significantly delay the population decrease in the decades to come, due to the low numbers of women of reproductive age. The demographic future of Serbia is a return to the population size of six decades ago by the next census and an intensification of depopulation. Spatial analysis has shown that as much as 90% of localities have experienced a decrease in population, with localities in the south-east of Serbia being affected the most. In the following period, significant changes in population movement are not expected with the caveat that migratory movement is a key influencing factor but as yet impossible to establish.

China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.

Александр Кулишер о демографическом будущем России

На рубеже 1920-х и 1930-х годов А.М. Кулишер написал три статьи, посвященные проблемам демографической динамики некоторых стран мира, которые были напечатаны в наиболее солидной и широко читаемой газете русской послереволюционной эмиграции – «Последние новости» (Париж). В них впервые в предсказании демографического будущего России использовалась общая схема демографических изменений, ныне известная как концепция «демографического перехода» или «демографической революции». В настоящей публикации приведены тексты этих статей, недоступные современному читателю, которые предваряются предисловием и дополнены комментариями к ним. В предисловии отмечены важные особенности статей А.М. Кулишера в контексте развития демографии того периода и нацеленность их автора на предвидение будущей динамики населения России.

Przyszłość demograficzna Polski a rynek pracy

The demographic future of Poland and the labour market The study focuses on the demographic changes expected in Poland by 2050 and their impact on the labour market. The forecasts indicate a significant loss of potential labour resources, their aging and the increase in the burden on those resources from the non-productive population. This situation may trigger a num­ber of threats to the labour market and the economy, including the occurrence of labour shortages, weak­ening of competitiveness and economic growth. Previous socio-demographic statistics, however, point to the complexity of the relationship between demography and the labour market, and they discourage sim­plistic conclusions regarding the nature of these links in the future.

Racial Population Projections and Reactions to Alternative News Accounts of Growing Diversity

Projections of changes in racial demographics depend on how race is classified. The U.S. Census Bureau makes several different projections of the nation’s racial demographic future, but the most publicized version projects our racial future in a way that narrows the definition of race groups to exclude people who are of mixed race or Hispanic. This definition results in projections of many fewer “whites,” accelerating the impending decline of the country’s white majority and perhaps heightening white audiences’ anxiety about demographic change. We conducted an experiment that randomly assigned whites to read alternative news stories based on 2014 Census Bureau projections. One story emphasized growing diversity, a second emphasized the decline of the white population to minority status, and a third described an enduring white majority based on intermarriage and inclusive white identity. Much higher levels of anxiety or anger, especially among Republicans, were recorded after reading the white minority story than the alternative stories of diversity or an enduring white majority.

Current Scenarios for the Demographic Future of the World: The Cases of Russia and Germany

In this article, we explore the demographic future of the world with a focus on scenarios for Russia and Germany. We seek an alternative to the Western standards of scenarios for global demographic development. We consider demographic development both in a positive and negative sense. Our analysis rests on such theoretical structures as the general theory of population, the classical theory of demographic transition, the concepts of the ‘second’, ‘third’, and ‘fourth’ demographic transitions, and scenarios for the ‘Eurasian demographic development path’. We employ a range of methods from comparative demography as well as historical analogies, expert evaluations and demographic forecasts. We analyse the patterns of current demographic development in Russia and Germany to explore various demographic scenarios. In the conclusion, we stress the need for Russia and other countries, including Germany, to embark on the ‘Eurasian demographic development path’ in view of the countries’ geographical positions and demographic values, with children being a dominant one. Otherwise, both Germany and Russia may disappear as national states as early as this century. The findings of this study can be used to improve the demographic policies of Russia and Germany.

Some implications of the changes in the world population distribution: How globalized will the world remain?

For the first-world citizens, globalization seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon; however, the global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries. What will the situation be in, let say, fifty years? The article aims to show how the future demographic changes can influence absolute numbers and relative proportions of societies with different levels of global connectivity. To estimate the national rates of global connectivity the authors rely on the countries’ participation in global networks, such as trade in goods, trade in services, foreign direct investment (FDI), and international migration. As the scenario of the demographic future, the authors use medium population projections of 2017 calculated by the United Nations Population Division. The authors applied a two-stage method: first, they constructed network models and analyzed the structure of networks to reveal the positions of countries in order to estimate their rates of global connectivity and identify six groups of countries according to their global connectivity rates. Second, the authors combined the results of network analysis with demographic projections to find out how many people are expected to live in the countries with different connectivity rates in the nearest decades (let say, up to 2050) and in the more distant future (2100). The results show that nearly a half of the world population (3.46 billion) lives in highly-connected countries but the situation will dramatically change in the coming decades. The proportion of population in the highly- and highly-medium-connected countries will decline by 2050 and further by 2100, while the proportion of residents of medium- and low-connected (and to some extent of lowest-low-connected) countries will significantly grow.