Demographic Fluctuations Research Articles

Coexistence in neutral theories: interplay of criticality and mild local preferences

Neutral theories have played a crucial and revolutionary role in fields such as population genetics and biogeography. These theories are critical by definition, in the sense that the overall growth rate of each single allele/species/type vanishes. Thus each species in a neutral model sits at the edge between invasion and extinction, allowing for the coexistence of symmetric/neutral types. However, in finite systems, mono-dominated states are ineluctably reached in relatively short times owing to demographic fluctuations, thus leaving us with an unsatisfactory framework to rationalize empirically-observed long-term coexistence. Here, we scrutinize the effect of heterogeneity in quasi-neutral theories, in which there can be a local mild preference for some of the competing species at some sites, even if the overall species symmetry is maintained. As we show here, mild biases at a small fraction of locations suffice to induce overall robust and durable species coexistence, even in regions arbitrarily far apart from the biased locations. This result stems from the long-range nature of the underlying critical bulk dynamics and has a number of implications, for example, in conservation ecology as it suggests that constructing local specific ‘sanctuaries’ for different competing species can result in global enhancement of biodiversity, even in regions arbitrarily distant from the protected refuges.

Environmental factors influencing the distribution of Arvicola scherman (Shaw, 1801) at the southwestern edge of its distribution

During 2008, damage to pastures in the eastern mountains of the province of Lugo (NW Spain) was detected, probably due to an increase in populations of Arvicola scherman (Shaw, 1801). Due to the scanty information available on this species in the area we conducted a study with the following main aims: i) to predict the current geographic distribution of the species, ii) identify the environmental variables that may determine their geographic distribution, iii) verify interannual variations in abundance and iv) develop a risk map of populations outbreaks. A total of 280 grassland fields were sampled in which species abundance was evaluated by using presence signs (earth tumuli or mounds), and subsequently an abundance index was estimated. The MAXENT programme developed a potential distribution map using the variables: potential evapotranspiration, water balance, altitude and average annual values of temperature and precipitation. The species was found only in the eastern mountains at altitudes of more than 700 m. Altitude and water balance were the variables that best predicted the presence of the species. Furthermore, a significant difference in the relative abundance between 2008 and 2010 was found, suggesting that the species may experience strong demographic fluctuations in the study area. Probably, the increase in grasslands over the last 40 years may have favoured the expansion and abundance of the species in the study area.

Population Structure of mtDNA Variation due to Pleistocene Fluctuations in the South American Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus, Illiger, 1815): Management Units for Conservation.

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is one of the largest South American canids, and conservation across this charismatic carnivore's large range is presently hampered by a lack of knowledge about possible natural subdivisions which could influence the population's viability. To elucidate the phylogeographic patterns and demographic history of the species, we used 2 mtDNA markers (D-loop and cytochrome b) from 87 individuals collected throughout their range, in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Uruguay. We found moderate levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity, and the 14 D-loop haplotypes were closely related. Genetic structure results revealed 4 groups, and when coupled with model inferences from a coalescent analysis, suggested that maned wolves have undergone demographic fluctuations due to changes in climate and habitat during the Pleistocene glaciation period approximately 24000 years before present (YBP). This genetic signature points to an event that occurred within the timing estimated for the start of the contraction of the Cerrado around 50000 YBP. Our results reveal a genetic signature of population size expansion followed by contraction during Pleistocene interglaciations, which had similar impacts on other South American mammals. The 4 groups should for now be considered management units, within which future monitoring efforts should be conducted independently.

Timing of occupation and regional settlement patterns revealed by time-series analyses of an archaeological radiocarbon database for the South-Central Andes (16°–25°S)

Developing spatially resolved high-resolution datasets of robust long-term changes in human demography constitutes a major challenge for archaeology. One approach is to use the distribution of summed radiocarbon-age probabilities to infer long-term population dynamics (i.e. palaeodemography). However, these can often be biased by preservation potential, site taphonomy or researcher priorities among other aspects, all of which require large datasets to resolve adequately. For this report, we have created such a dataset for the South-Central Andes (16°–25°S), here termed the South Central Andes Radiocarbon (SCAR) database. SCAR spans the last 15,000 years and incorporates ∼1700 14C-dates from 519 archeological sites reported across an extreme bioclimatic gradient that includes the hyperarid coastal Atacama Desert and adjacent cold, high-elevation Altiplano. Among the possible methodological biases, we first evaluated those related to calibration procedures. Otherwise, changes in summed probability curves show no other relevant biases except for possible research interest/priorities that could be responsible for the gaps in the record from the Bolivian altiplano. Our temporally continuous time-series indicates that prehispanic populations exhibited significant demographic changes during the last 13,100 calBP. Except for coastal populations; most regions show strongly coordinated demographic fluctuations that follow the same major patterns. Thus, we identified two broad scale population events across the South-Central Andes (Atacama inland, Bolivian Altiplano) from 13,100–4000 calBP and then from 4000 calBP to the present. In contrast, the Atacama coastal records suggest a different and more variable occupation pattern over the last 13,460 calBP, which could be driven by the interaction with oceanographic processes (i.e. upwelling). A widespread major decline at 700 calBP clearly predates the Spanish colonization and occurs in all of our regions. This widespread decline does not appear to be due to methodological biases, and suggests that a population crash occurred before European occupation. Overall, the SCAR database constitutes a valuable proxy for establishing the long-term dynamics of prehistoric societies that inhabited the western Andean slope. Time-series analyses that use SCAR will shed new light on the demographic and cultural dynamics at different spatial-scales, and help clarify the processes involved in the migrational trajectories and cultural evolution of the peoples that inhabited the South-Central Andes over the last 15,000 years.

Prehistoric demographic fluctuations in China inferred from radiocarbon data and their linkage with climate change over the past 50,000 years

Historic human–climate interactions have been of interest to scholars for a long time. However, exploring the long-term relation between prehistoric demography and climate change remains challenging because of the absence of an effective proxy for population reconstruction. Recently, the summed probability distribution of archaeological radiocarbon dates has been widely used as a proxy for human population levels, although researchers recognize that such usage must be cautious. This approach is rarely applied in China due to the lack of a comprehensive archaeological radiocarbon database, and thus the relation between human population and climate change in China remains ambiguous. Herein we systematically compile an archaeological 14C database (n = 4656) for China for the first time. Using the summed probability distributions of the radiocarbon dates alongside high-resolution palaeoclimatic records, we show that: 1) the commencement of major population expansion in China was at 9 ka cal BP, occurring after the appearance of agriculture and associated with the early Holocene climate amelioration; 2) the major periods of small population size and population decline, i.e., 46–43 ka cal BP, 41–38 ka cal BP, 31–28.6 ka cal BP, 25–23.5 ka cal BP, 18–15.2 ka cal BP, and 13–11.4 ka cal BP, correspond well with the dating of abrupt cold events in the Last Glacial (LG) such as the Heinrich and Younger Dryas (YD) events, while the major periods of high-level population in the Holocene, i.e., 8.5–7 ka cal BP, 6.5–5 ka cal BP and 4.3–2.8 ka cal BP, occur at the same times as warm-moist conditions and Neolithic cultural prosperity, suggesting that abrupt cooling in the climate profoundly limited population size and that mild climate episodes spurred a growth in prehistoric populations and advances in human cultures; and 3) populations in different regions experience different growth trajectories and that their responses to climate change are varied, due to both regional environmental diversity and the attainment of different levels of adaptive strategies.

Demographic stochasticity and evolution of dispersion I. Spatially homogeneous environments

The selection of dispersion is a classical problem in ecology and evolutionary biology. Deterministic dynamical models of two competing species differing only in their passive dispersal rates suggest that the lower mobility species has a competitive advantage in inhomogeneous environments, and that dispersion is a neutral characteristic in homogeneous environments. Here we consider models including local population fluctuations due to both individual movements and random birth and death events to investigate the effect of demographic stochasticity on the competition between species with different dispersal rates. In this paper, the first of two, we focus on homogeneous environments where deterministic models predict degenerate dynamics in the sense that there are many (marginally) stable equilibria with the species' coexistence ratio depending only on initial data. When demographic stochasticity is included the situation changes. A novel large carrying capacity ([Formula: see text]) asymptotic analysis, confirmed by direct numerical simulations, shows that a preference for faster dispersers emerges on a precisely defined [Formula: see text] time scale. We conclude that while there is no evolutionarily stable rate for competitors to choose in these models, the selection mechanism quantified here is the essential counterbalance in spatially inhomogeneous models including demographic fluctuations which do display an evolutionarily stable dispersal rate.

Contemporary Genetic Structure, Phylogeography and Past Demographic Processes of Wild Boar Sus scrofa Population in Central and Eastern Europe

The wild boar (Sus scrofa) is one of the most widely distributed mammals in Europe. Its demography was affected by various events in the past and today populations are increasing throughout Europe. We examined genetic diversity, structure and population dynamics of wild boar in Central and Eastern Europe. MtDNA control region (664 bp) was sequenced in 254 wild boar from six countries (Poland, Hungary, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the European part of Russia). We detected 16 haplotypes, all known from previous studies in Europe; 14 of them belonged to European 1 (E1) clade, including 13 haplotypes from E1-C and one from E1-A lineages. Two haplotypes belonged respectively to the East Asian and the Near Eastern clade. Both haplotypes were found in Russia and most probably originated from the documented translocations of wild boar. The studied populations showed moderate haplotype (0.714±0.023) and low nucleotide diversity (0.003±0.002). SAMOVA grouped the genetic structuring of Central and Eastern European wild boar into three subpopulations, comprising of: (1) north-eastern Belarus and the European part of Russia, (2) Poland, Ukraine, Moldova and most of Belarus, and (3) Hungary. The multimodal mismatch distribution, Fu's Fs index, Bayesian skyline plot and the high occurrence of shared haplotypes among populations did not suggest strong demographic fluctuations in wild boar numbers in the Holocene and pre-Holocene times. This study showed relatively weak genetic diversity and structure in Central and Eastern European wild boar populations and underlined gaps in our knowledge on the role of southern refugia and demographic processes shaping genetic diversity of wild boar in this part of Europe.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Range-wide genetic structure of maritime pine predates the last glacial maximum: evidence from nuclear DNA

Using nuclear simple sequence repeats (nuSSRs), we determined the genetic variability in the natural distribution range of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) in the western Mediterranean region. We analysed the role of global and significant climatic fluctuations in driving the evolutionary diversification of this species. We attempted to determine the impact of the last glacial maximum (LGM) and human activity on genetic variation and to identify the effect of bottlenecks, admixing, migration, time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA), and recent splits. A total of 972 individuals were analysed. The sample represented 27 natural populations from the western Mediterranean region, which encompasses most of the natural range of P. pinaster. Using eight nuSSRs, we analysed genetic diversity indices for each population and group of populations. We also examined the interpopulation structure by the frequency and distance method and investigated genetic barriers, signals of historical demographic fluctuations, phylogeographic structure, admixing, rate of mutation, migration, as well as testing the hypothesis of isolation by distance (IBD). Both cluster analyses showed similar population genetic structure with three genetic barriers that divided the samples into four large groups. Intensive migration was only detected during the period of the last glacial maximum (LGM), which permitted the mutation rate of the markers used to be calculated. The majority of the population was found to exhibit signs of a recent bottleneck and its timing showed a clear northeast-southwest geographic distribution. A clearly defined phylogeographic structure (Nst > Gst and Rst > Gst ) under IBD was established, and showed the highest divergence between groups of populations separated by physical barriers, such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Sea and the Pyrenees. The high level of intergroup genetic differentiation (ΦIS = 20.26) was attributed to a long historical isolation (which occurred before the last 18 000 years) between the principal maritime pine population groups that occurred due to physical barriers that limited pollen and seed transfer, combined with a minimal effective radius of distribution. The low level of genetic diversity among the populations was combined with genetic drift and a recent bottleneck during the period of human activity. Significant migration across barriers was due to spontaneous phenomena during the LGM, which had no significant impact on the genetic structure owing to its relatively short duration and the fragmented species. The phylogeographic structure under the assumption of IBD was well established for P. pinaster in each of the principal population groups.

AustArch: A Database of 14C and Non-14C Ages from Archaeological Sites in Australia - Composition, Compilation and Review (Data Paper)

This dataset represents an invaluable compilation of 14C and non-14C ages from archaeological sites for most of the 89 bio-regions of Australia. Critically harvesting some 5,000 14C and 500 non-14C dates from over 1,000 publications, the dataset provides information on each date in 26 fields including its location, site type, biogeographic zone, sample material, context and age details (including 13C and error). This data provides a comprehensive foundation for any regional archaeology in Australia illustrating past research foci, strengths and biases in sampling of bioregions, geomorphic context, site type, sample type, and adequacy of contextualisation (e.g. association with cultural events). Such datasets can improve time series and summed probability methods and are being used as a mainstream proxy to explore archaeological trends and specifically demographic fluctuations for the tropical northern, central arid zone and southern ocean provinces. Such reconstructions will always rely on coverage and adequacy of sampling (52 bioregions register less than 50 dates). While both closed rockshelter sites and open/midden sites account for a similar proportion of dates, less than 14% of sites have returned 4 or more dates. Given that 74% of dates fall within the Holocene epoch, this period is most amenable to archaeological enquiry at a fine-scaled regional level. For the Pleistocene era, larger scale questions such as occupation patterns during the LGM might reasonably be addressed and refined. The data may be re-used for studies of a) timing of colonisation of differing bioregions, b) characterising varying mobility patterns of groups occupying the arid zone, c) identifying gaps in previous research (the Great Victoria and Tanami Deserts), d) as proxy for demographic changes, e) the responses of groups to environmental stochasticity such as OIS2 and ENSO, f) the relationship between occupation and phases of rock art production through time, g) the nature of coastal occupation during lower sea stands and specifically following mid-Holocene stabilisation, and h) not least, as a fundamental building block for any regional archaeology of Australia.

The False Problem of the Maintenance of Sex (Review of the Original Approach)

We analyze here the keys of the original approach about the twofold cost: the return to the asexuality starting with a mutant female, with the same reproductive capacity than a sexual one, and with double genetic-reproductive success. We propose a new approach in which 1) all individuals in a population have regulatory mechanisms of reproductive mode, and when such change occurs, it happens in all its population at the same time; 2) after a change of reproductive mode in the population there can be variations in average offspring per female, according to the environmental quality; and 3) the genetic-reproductive success of the males and its unequal paternity success are accounted for. Results: The most advantageous reproductive strategy depends on the demographic situation of the population and the degree of the unequal paternity success of males. For harem values observed in nature and in populations with moderate growth rate, stable or decreasing population, the sexual strategy is advantageous. If the population growth rate is high, the asexual strategy is advantageous. In species subject to high demographic fluctuations the best strategy depends on the ability to predict the time of occurrence of the population bottleneck: if predictable, the best strategy is the alternation of generations, if not, permanent parthenogenesis.

Recent Acquisition of Helicobacter pylori by Baka Pygmies

Both anatomically modern humans and the gastric pathogen Helicobacter pylori originated in Africa, and both species have been associated for at least 100,000 years. Seven geographically distinct H. pylori populations exist, three of which are indigenous to Africa: hpAfrica1, hpAfrica2, and hpNEAfrica. The oldest and most divergent population, hpAfrica2, evolved within San hunter-gatherers, who represent one of the deepest branches of the human population tree. Anticipating the presence of ancient H. pylori lineages within all hunter-gatherer populations, we investigated the prevalence and population structure of H. pylori within Baka Pygmies in Cameroon. Gastric biopsies were obtained by esophagogastroduodenoscopy from 77 Baka from two geographically separated populations, and from 101 non-Baka individuals from neighboring agriculturalist populations, and subsequently cultured for H. pylori. Unexpectedly, Baka Pygmies showed a significantly lower H. pylori infection rate (20.8%) than non-Baka (80.2%). We generated multilocus haplotypes for each H. pylori isolate by DNA sequencing, but were not able to identify Baka-specific lineages, and most isolates in our sample were assigned to hpNEAfrica or hpAfrica1. The population hpNEAfrica, a marker for the expansion of the Nilo-Saharan language family, was divided into East African and Central West African subpopulations. Similarly, a new hpAfrica1 subpopulation, identified mainly among Cameroonians, supports eastern and western expansions of Bantu languages. An age-structured transmission model shows that the low H. pylori prevalence among Baka Pygmies is achievable within the timeframe of a few hundred years and suggests that demographic factors such as small population size and unusually low life expectancy can lead to the eradication of H. pylori from individual human populations. The Baka were thus either H. pylori-free or lost their ancient lineages during past demographic fluctuations. Using coalescent simulations and phylogenetic inference, we show that Baka almost certainly acquired their extant H. pylori through secondary contact with their agriculturalist neighbors.

Genetic diversity and structure of an endemic and critically endangered stream river salamander (Caudata: Ambystoma leorae) in Mexico

Small or isolated populations are highly susceptible to stochastic events. They are prone and vulnerable to random demographic or environmental fluctuations that could lead to extinction due to the loss of alleles through genetic drift and increased inbreeding. We studied Ambystoma leorae an endemic and critically threatened species. We analyzed the genetic diversity and structure, effective population size, presence of bottlenecks and inbreeding coefficient of 96 individuals based on nine microsatellite loci. We found high levels of genetic diversity expressed as heterozygosity (Ho = 0.804, He = 0.613, He* = 0.626 and HNei = 0.622). The population presents few alleles (4–9 per locus) and genotypes (3–14 per locus) compared with other mole salamanders species. We identified three genetically differentiated subpopulations with a significant level of genetic structure (FST = 0.021, RST = 0.044 y Dest = 0.010, 95 % CI). We also detected a reduction signal in population size and evidence of a genetic bottleneck (M = 0.367). The effective population size is small (Ne = 45.2), but similar to another mole salamanders with restricted distributions or with recently fragmented habitat. The inbreeding coefficient levels detected are low (FIS = −0.619–0.102) as is gene flow. Despite, high levels of genetic diversity A. leorae is critically endangered because it is a small isolated population.

Demographic changes, labor markets and their consequences on post-school-transitions in West Germany 1975–2005

The German system of post-school education and training is well-known for its high degree of standardization and stratification. Whereas transitions from this system to the labor market have been examined widely, much less is known about the transition patterns of school-leavers to post-school education. In particular, there is a shortage of research applying a comprehensive view of school-leavers from different tracks and investigating changing overall transition patterns over time. In our paper we fill this research gap by investigating school-leavers’ transitions to post-school education in West Germany over the last 30 years. Particular attention is given to the influence of contextual conditions, such as demographic fluctuations, economic cycles, and changes in the social composition of school-leavers. The empirical analyses are based on the retrospective life-course survey ALWA, which contains detailed information on the education and work trajectories of 10,000 adults in Germany. Our results show that school-leavers with low and medium attainment need more time to enter training when unemployment is high or when the school-leaver cohort is large. Overall, access to post-school education has become increasingly difficult for these groups, over and above the market shortages and the changes in group composition. By contrast, the transitions of school-leavers from higher secondary schools are unaffected by market fluctuations and long-term structural change. In the period looked at here, their chances remained almost stable. Accordingly, we conclude that the transition rates of school-leavers with different educational attainment have diverged in (West) Germany over the last 30 years.

Effect of demographic noise in a phytoplankton-zooplankton model of bloom dynamics

An extension of the Truscott-Brindley model [Bull. Math. Biol. 56, 981 (1994)] is derived to account for the effect of demographic fluctuations. In the presence of seasonal forcing and sufficiently shallow water conditions, the fluctuations induced by the discreteness of the zooplankton component appear sufficient to cause switching between the bloom and no-bloom cycles predicted at the mean-field level by the model. The destabilization persists in the thermodynamic limit of a water basin infinitely extended in the horizontal direction.

Durable Resistance to Crop Pathogens: An Epidemiological Framework to Predict Risk under Uncertainty

Increasing the durability of crop resistance to plant pathogens is one of the key goals of virulence management. Despite the recognition of the importance of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of an epidemic, their effects on the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance has not received attention. We formulated a stochastic epidemiological model, based on the Kramer-Moyal expansion of the Master Equation, to investigate how random fluctuations affect the dynamics of an epidemic and how these effects feed through to the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance. We focused on two hypotheses: firstly, a previous deterministic model has suggested that the effect of cropping ratio (the proportion of land area occupied by the resistant crop) on the durability of crop resistance is negligible. Increasing the cropping ratio increases the area of uninfected host, but the resistance is more rapidly broken; these two effects counteract each other. We tested the hypothesis that similar counteracting effects would occur when we take account of demographic stochasticity, but found that the durability does depend on the cropping ratio. Secondly, we tested whether a superimposed external source of stochasticity (for example due to environmental variation or to intermittent fungicide application) interacts with the intrinsic demographic fluctuations and how such interaction affects the durability of resistance. We show that in the pathosystem considered here, in general large stochastic fluctuations in epidemics enhance extinction of the pathogen. This is more likely to occur at large cropping ratios and for particular frequencies of the periodic external perturbation (stochastic resonance). The results suggest possible disease control practises by exploiting the natural sources of stochasticity.

Commitment Versus Persuasion in the Three-Party Constrained Voter Model

In the framework of the three-party constrained voter model, where voters of two radical parties (A and B) interact with "centrists" (C and Cz), we study the competition between a persuasive majority and a committed minority. In this model, A's and B's are incompatible voters that can convince centrists or be swayed by them. Here, radical voters are more persuasive than centrists, whose sub-population consists of susceptible agents C and a fraction zeta of centrist zealots Cz. Whereas C's may adopt the opinions A and B with respective rates 1+delta_A and 1+delta_B (with delta_A>=delta_B>0), Cz's are committed individuals that always remain centrists. Furthermore, A and B voters can become (susceptible) centrists C with a rate 1. The resulting competition between commitment and persuasion is studied in the mean field limit and for a finite population on a complete graph. At mean field level, there is a continuous transition from a coexistence phase when zeta<Delta_c=delta_A/(1+delta_A) to a phase where centrism prevails when zeta>= Delta_c. In a finite population of size N, demographic fluctuations lead to centrism consensus and the dynamics is characterized by the mean consensus time tau. Because of the competition between commitment and persuasion, here consensus is reached much slower (zeta<Delta_c) or faster (zeta>=Delta_c) than in the absence of zealots (when tau\simN). In fact, when zeta<Delta_c and there is an initial minority of centrists, the mean consensus time asymptotically grows as tau\simN^{-1/2} e^{N gamma}, where gamma is determined. The dynamics is thus characterized by a metastable state where the most persuasive voters and centrists coexist when delta_A>delta_B, whereas all species coexist when delta_A=delta_B. When zeta>=Delta_c and the initial density of centrists is low, one finds tau\simln N (when N>>1). Our analytical findings are corroborated by stochastic simulations.

Population genetics of the American eel (Anguilla rostrata): FST = 0 and North Atlantic Oscillation effects on demographic fluctuations of a panmictic species

We performed population genetic analyses on the American eel (Anguilla rostrata) with three main objectives. First, we conducted the most comprehensive analysis of neutral genetic population structure to date to revisit the null hypothesis of panmixia in this species. Second, we used this data to provide the first estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne ) and to document temporal variation in effective number of breeders (Nb ) in American eel. Third, we tested for statistical associations between temporal variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the effective number of breeders and two indices of recruit abundance. A total of 2142 eels from 32 sampling locations were genotyped with 18 microsatellite loci. All measures of differentiation were essentially zero, and no evidence for significant spatial or temporal genetic differentiation was found. The panmixia hypothesis should thus be accepted for this species. Nb estimates varied by a factor of 23 among 12 cohorts, from 473 to 10,999. The effective population size Ne was estimated at 10,532 (95% CI, 9312-11,752). This study also showed that genetically based demographic indices, namely Nb and allelic richness (Ar), can be used as surrogates for the abundance of breeders and recruits, which were both shown to be positively influenced by variation during high (positive) NAO phases. Thus, long-term genetic monitoring of American glass eels at several sites along the North American Atlantic coast would represent a powerful and efficient complement to census monitoring to track demographic fluctuations and better understand their causes.

Diversification, biogeographic pattern, and demographic history of Taiwanese Scutellaria species inferred from nuclear and chloroplast DNA.

The ragged topography created by orogenesis generates diversified habitats for plants in Taiwan. In addition to colonization from nearby mainland China, high species diversity and endemism of plants is also present in Taiwan. Five of the seven Scutellaria species (Lamiaceae) in Taiwan, for example, are endemic to the island. Hypotheses of multiple sources or in situ radiation have arisen to explain the high endemism of Taiwanese species. In this study, phylogenetic analyses using both nuclear and chloroplast markers revealed the multiple sources of Taiwanese Scutellaria species and confirmed the rapid and recent speciation of endemic species, especially those of the “indica group” composed of S. indica, S. austrotaiwanensis, S. tashiroi, and S. playfairii. The common ancestors of the indica group colonized first in northern Taiwan and dispersed regionally southward and eastward. Climate changes during glacial/interglacial cycles led to gradual colonization and variance events in the ancestors of these species, resulting in the present distribution and genetic differentiation of extant populations. Population decline was also detected in S. indica, which might reflect a bottleneck effect from the glacials. In contrast, the recently speciated endemic members of the indica group have not had enough time to accumulate much genetic variation and are thus genetically insensitive to demographic fluctuations, but the extant lineages were spatially expanded in the coalescent process. This study integrated phylogenetic and population genetic analyses to illustrate the evolutionary history of Taiwanese Scutellaria of high endemism and may be indicative of the diversification mechanism of plants on continental islands.

Forcing anomalous scaling on demographic fluctuations

We discuss the conditions under which a population of anomalously diffusing individuals can be characterized by demographic fluctuations that are anomalously scaling themselves. Two examples are provided in the case of individuals migrating by Gaussian diffusion, and by a sequence of Lévy flights.