Demographic Decline Research Articles

Conceptual approaches regarding the reorganization of territorial administrative units in the Republic of Moldova

The administrative-territorial transformations are determined by the demographic decline, the cause being massive emigration or migration within the state, by the precarious state of the infrastructure and the economy of the respective localities. The small number of population per UAT limits the financial resources and consequently the institutional and administrative capacity of the LPA to fulfill its responsibilities. In the conditions created, considering the fact that some of the rural localities have been left without inhabitants or have a very small number of inhabitants, the idea of amalgamating the administrative-territorial units was launched. The structural reform in the form of the merger of local authorities will change the map of local administration. This reform, which is initially to be voluntary, amalgamates two or more local authorities into a new political and economic organizational entity.

E-Learning as a Development Tool

In the modern world, there is a need to organize learning quickly and effectively. Due to the current economic climate, competition in the educational market, and demographic decline, there is an increasing interest in e-learning at all levels of education but especially in higher education. E-education provides the opportunity to attract students from abroad, those with disabilities, and those who cannot give up their professional work but want or should continue their education. This way of acquiring knowledge is of interest to various people who want to complete their higher education or gain a new profession. The article attempts to answer the following questions: which form of education is more attractive for students, stationary or remote; how do they assess the effects of both of these forms; which of them would they prefer in the event of further learning; and what suggestions do they make to improve distance learning? The article also contains a description of the project of changes undertaken by the State Vocational University in the Masovian Voivodeship (Poland) towards adapting to the requirements of digital reality. The aim of this article is to determine students’ preferences in terms of forms of studying and the university’s response to students’ needs in this area. It also discusses the specifics of the recent popularity of a new teaching model called connectivism. It presents what education based on this method is about and explains how it differs from previously functioning models such as behaviorism, cognitivism, and constructionism. The publication also contains a critique of connectivism and an attempt to indicate what risks and doubts arise from the dissemination of this type of education.

Low-Skilled Migrant Labor Schemes in Japan’s Agriculture: Voices From the Field

Abstract Despite rapid demographic decline, until recently, low-skilled migrant workers have been welcomed only through ‘side-doors’ such as technical interns (TITP). Yet pressure for change comes from two sides: the moral critique of the ‘side-door’ scheme, and the growing economic pressures of a dwindling labor force. In 2018 Japan put in place a short-term bona-fide labor scheme (Specified Skilled Worker; hereafter, SSW) in fields previously largely inaccessible to foreign labor. In combination with the TITP schemes, these workers are allowed to stay longer. But what do these changes mean, how do the farmer-employers see them, and will the SSW lead to a sustainable farm labor supply going forward? We explore stakeholders’ views of the current schemes and their opinions on how low-skilled labor migration should proceed in agriculture. Businesses are desperate for labor, but not at any cost. Under SSW, employers are being asked to change the ways they envision and treat migrant labor. The tensions between their expectations and the realities on the ground reflect the contradictions that Japan’s migration policies inherit, based in the bureaucratic fiction that only ‘skilled’ labor is necessary. Data for this paper come from qualitative interviews conducted from 2018 to 2022 in Kyoto, Aichi, and Tokyo.

‘Place’ does matter for populist radical right sentiment, but how? Evidence from Germany

AbstractThe notion of ‘place’ has become a central concern in research on the populist radical right (PRR), but scholars seem to have different things in mind when talking about how geography affects individual political attitudes. In our paper, we therefore aim to structure the debate on the impact of place and to understand exactly how place affects PRR attitudes (nativism, right-wing authoritarianism, and populism). Conceptually, we identify four potentially relevant aspects of ‘place’ that underpin much of the current literature: place-related attitudes (localism and resentment), place-specific living conditions, socio-demographic composition, and characteristics unique to a particular place, i.e., its local history and culture. We also discuss how these aspects are related and how they may interact. Empirically, we assess the relative importance of these four aspects of place for PRR sentiment in Germany, a country that is particularly well suited to this type of analysis. Using fine-grained geocoded survey data collected prior to the 2017 election, we find that (1) there is considerable spatial variation and clustering in PRR attitudes, (2) a place’s socio-demographic composition and (3) place resentment account for much of this, while (4) localism has weaker effects. We find (5) no relevant interaction between localism and place resentment, (6) no substantial evidence that mediation through place-related attitudes leads to an underestimation of the other aspects, and (7) no evidence for effects of the unique culture or history of the places we studied. Moreover, (8) location in the former GDR still has a substantial impact, whereas (9) other place-specific conditions (deprivation, demographic decline, migration, rurality) that could be addressed by policy interventions have no or rather weak effects. We conclude that PRR sentiment in ‘places that don’t matter’ results also, though by no means exclusively, from a lack of recognition.

The post-socialist cities from Central and Eastern Europe: Between spatial growth and demographic decline

This research examines two major phenomena that have driven the transformation of cities in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the fall of communism: intensive urban sprawl and population decline. Using a quantitative methodology to examine the patterns and dynamics of built-up areas and population in 93 cities from CEE, the article assesses their transformation between 1990 and 2018. The findings show that, while there are overall similarities in the dynamics of built-up area and population changes in CEE cities, there are also notable differences that vary by country, city size, proximity to Western Europe and economic attractiveness.

Genomic tools for comparative conservation genetics among three recently diverged stag beetles (Lucanus, Lucanidae)

Abstract We are witnessing a rapid decline in global biodiversity. International protocols and local conservation laws have been installed to counter such an unprecedent rate of decline. However, quantitatively evaluating how much biodiversity has been lost due to climatic and anthropogenic effects and how much biodiversity has been restored due to conservation efforts remains challenging. We applied a comparative conservation genomic approach to statistically and quantitatively address these questions using three geographical taxa from a stag beetle species complex. We found that the three sky‐island taxa formed three independently evolving units without detectable post‐divergence gene flow; furthermore, the three taxa, which have been divergent from each other since the mid‐Pleistocene, have experienced episodes of demographic decline in the past. More importantly, even though idiosyncratic anthropogenic exploitations have been hypothesised to impact the recent demographic history (<100 years) differently, we found a shared pattern of continuous decline in effective population size among the three geographical taxa. We argue that future empirical studies should include more taxa, in addition to the focal species, that may or may not be affected by the focal historical events to avoid making biased conservation plans.

Welcoming and Generative Local Welfare as an Agent for Territorial Development: A Case Study from Southern Italy

AbstractIn Italy, shrinking regions cover more than 60% of the national territory. Although these areas are in demographic and economic decline (Accordo di Partenariato, 2014), many resilient initiatives have been developed over the years (Moss, 1996; Meloni, 2015). Among these experiences, several are aimed at welcoming the migrant population (Corrado, 2013), becoming privileged spaces for more equitable and inclusive modes of territorial regeneration (Van der Ploeg et al., 2003; Oostindie et al., 2010). Drawing upon these premises, the paper intends to reflect on the presence of non-EU migrants in shrinking Italian areas and on their role in local sustainable development. The contribution presents some of the first results of the Horizon 2020 project “WELCOMING SPACES”, with a specific focus on the municipality of Camini, one of the most shrinking areas in Southern Italy, to highlight how migration can lead to local development and rural regeneration processes. Camini is a good case study, as the reception centre managed by the social cooperative ‘JungiMundu’ hosts 118 migrants out of a total population of 810. Thanks to the presence of this number of people, several public services (i.e., post office, school, etc.) have been (re)activated. In the first part of this article, we introduce the case study, while in the second part, we reflect on how the reception of migrants contributes to the implementation of collective and public services for the whole community. The increase in population, both in terms of newcomers and Italian returnees, has also allowed for the regeneration of the village, economically and socially, creating connections between different cultures and traditions that had almost disappeared.

Analysis of demographic trends in onotowns and state support measures.

The article provides a general analysis of the demographic trends of monotowns. Classification, population, employment, migration trends and state support measures for economic diversification of monotowns in Kazakhstan with prospects for the development of town forming enterprise in case of depletion of raw materials. If in some monotowns we see growth of population then others demonstrate the population outflow, therefore we analyzed existing trends in socio-economic development of monotowns, but significant part of them shows demographic decline and outflow of skilled labor force. We provided a comparative analysis, methods of analytical analysis and a review of foreign and domestic scientific literature. We consider the ways of solving problems and development methods of monotowns. We studied socio-economic development level, international experience in solving problems and evaluated the effectiveness of state aid for monotowns. Nine monotowns due to their location have close economic ties with regional centers, which has a positive effect on their economic development. Population in these cities is generally stable. Economy diversification due to competitiveness of monotowns, balance of labor force, labor resources through demographic indicators such as mortality, migration growth, life expectancy. Vast territory, low population density, demographic growth and decline, remoteness from natural resources and intensive development of deposits, development of monotowns remain one of the most main tasks. The population decline in monotowns is observed in Pavlodar, Kostanay, East Kazakhstan, Mangystau regions, and the population of monotowns in Kazakhstan has decreased over the past five years

Study of Foreign Labor Migration Causes of the RA within the Framework of Public Opinion Analysis

Key words. migration, migration mobility, demographic image violation, social opinion, migratory sentiments The article deals with a study of the causes of external migration tendencies of RA conducted in accordance with the methodology of sociological research. This research has a selective nature that preserves the standards used in Sociology. 1 urban and 14 rural settlements in Shirak Marz of RA were included in the sample of the sociological research. The sample survey is compiled with regional, professional, migration as well as gender and age characteristics so that valuable and relevant information could be extracted for further study and usage in the development of migration policy. In this regard, there was a problem of assessing the role and importance of migrants in the development of households in Shirak Marz. At the same time, it was necessary to understand what existential problems were formed by the outflow of the workable population from Armenia in recent years, particularly due to the demographic decline and depopulation. The scope of this topic also covers the question of where the Armenian youth currently wants to go and what are the reasons for the migration trend. The outcomes of the author’s empirical investigation, as mentioned in the document, were derived through systematic validation and analysis of pre-designed protocols. The instruments, crafted by the author, underwent rigorous testing and authentication in educational settings and among the population of 18-year-old migrants domiciled in the city of Gyumri, RA, as well as among the elderly. The report incorporates a comprehensive exposition of the pertinent issue and the delineated objectives of the research. The primary and secondary research data were subjected to instrumental measurements, systematically analyzed, and generated insightful inferences, paving the way for a thought-provoking scientific exposition. The data, obtained in the framework of the article, will be valuable for scientific and public circles, for institutions dealing with migration issues.

Evidence of the Atlantic nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum) population shrink at Rocas Atoll, Southwestern Atlantic

Abstract The Atlantic nurse shark, Ginglymostoma cirratum, was recently listed as Vulnerable by IUCN Red List, however, as highlighted, little is known about its populations in the Southwestern Atlantic. Therefore, population studies are essential to propose status evaluations and new conservation measures. Natural marks present on the animals' bodies are used as an alternative non‐invasive method rather than the usual tagging system for individual identification, thus avoiding the need for animal handling. This study aimed to evaluate the population size trend of G. cirratum at the Rocas Atoll Marine Biological Reserve, the only atoll located in the South Atlantic. Data were collected through underwater filming, photo‐identification, and visual censuses. Three expeditions were carried out in 2018 and the abundance of sharks was sampled in the inner part of Rocas Atoll Marine Biological Reserve. Sharks were identified individually with the aid of the software Interactive Identification System – Contour (I3S). Based on the re‐sightings of identified animals, two capture–recapture estimators of population size were used (Petersen–Bailey; Jolly–Seber). The estimates were then compared to the only previous estimate made 20 years before, which employed the same number of expeditions and estimators. A total of 139 sharks were identified from 444 sightings in 63 h of diving effort. Population estimates varied from 200 to 205 sharks, which are significantly lower than the previous estimate (339–368 sharks) made 20 years ago, suggesting a demographic decline in Southwestern Atlantic populations. Population studies and movement of G. cirratum are essential to inform the implementation of additional protective measures, including the establishment of protected corridors between marine protected areas and the recovery of G. cirratum populations. It is crucial to consider that the distribution of individuals may extend beyond the borders of the non‐take marine protected area. Therefore, the observed decline in the local population could potential indicate a broader decline across the Southwestern Atlantic.

Depopulation 1.0: Geography and the Factors of Rural Demographic Decline in the Spain of Developmentalism

The debate on rural depopulation, which has centred on the demographic challenge in Spain, usually starts with consensus on its historical roots. Nevertheless, it’s necessary to inspect in detail the sociodemographic factors underlying this starting point in order to understand it and tackle it today. In the last 60 years, 65 percent of the demographic decline in rural areas is concentrated between 1960 and 1981. In the present study, I inquire into two little-known aspects of this crucial phase of rural depopulation: the geographic dimension and the factors that favoured this initial depopulation. Among the elements that contributed towards the demographic decline of rural areas are geographical isolation of mountain areas, poverty, human capital, and an almost exclusive dependence on agriculture. By contrast, the economic diversity, the demographic dimension of rural centres, disperse and dense settlement, and good public infrastructure favoured demographic resilience in the face of depopulation.

Men Who Shout at Goats

Abstract Across many world regions, the informal slaughter of livestock occupies an important place in rural day-to-day realities. This article examines killing goats on São Jorge Island to show how attention to slaughter enhances our understanding of gendered selfhood, human–animal relations, and the impacts of depopulation. Building on ethnography of smallholder farmers who see their masculinity and livelihoods endangered by demographic decline, I argue that their idea of agrarian cultivation underwrites verbal hostility against animals. Male farmers’ concept of cultivation, here conceived as productive order-making between a threatening ‘natural’ and a desirable ‘domestic’ domain, is hence an ambivalent moral idiom. In moments of slaughter, the frustration about the difficulties of cultivation is expressed as men deriding goats to salvage a desired image of manhood and competence.

Key factors in selecting economic higher education institution: Republic of Moldova case study

Economic higher education institutions in the country operate in an extremely complex and dynamic environment, characterized by demographic decline of the population, mass emigration of the younger population, high level of competition on the national and international markets, quantitative reduction in the demand for higher education services and the change of its structure, etc. The challenges from the external environment bring to the attention of university management the need to develop effective marketing strategies for the attraction and retention of students. The success of this approach largely depends on the awareness of potential students’ motivations for applying to a training program and the criteria for choosing the university. Understanding the expectations and preferences of potential customers allows the design and development of more relevant educational programs and services, the development of effective communication strategies, that help recruit and retain a sufficient number of students to achieve the educational and financial goals. In this vein, the present study aims to analyze the existing behavioral models to identify the determinants that influence the university selection process by potential students. At the same time, the paper presents the results of the survey carried out in order to identify the key factors used by Moldovan students in the process of choosing the training program and the economic education provider. This study is part of a complex descriptive research on the behavior of consumers of economic higher education services.

Being active and sharing happy moments: exploring the relationship of political participation and subjective well-being

In my thesis, I provide a relational approach on how political participation in rural Japan is linked to the activists’ well-being. While existing research has not come to a clear conclusion, this study uses an iterative qualitative research design that identifies six dimensions of how to link the two phenomena. Based on anthropological approaches to the topic, I demonstrate how my respondents emphasize the reciprocity of well-being in the process of political action. In Japanese regions characterized by demographic decline and aging, well-being is interpreted primarily as a relational phenomenon whose meaning unfolds against the backdrop of a specifically rural context, but is also one situated in the everyday lives of the interviewees. I perceive well-being as something that is not only linked to the natural landscape in that particular area, but is above all connected to the enjoyment of other people.

Colleges find creative ways to manage demographic decline

There's no arguing with the demographics. Starting in 2025, the number of high school graduates will decline by 100,000 annually for four years (tinyurl.com/2st6c896). And the shrinking number of graduates will persist at least 15 years.

ANALYZING NATURAL AND MIGRATION FACTORS: UNDERSTANDING THE STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS OF ALTAI REGION'S POPULATION

The demographic decline in Russia began after the collapse of the USSR and was exacerbated by a spiritual crisis. To address these problems, the Conception of the Demographic Policy was adopted for the period up to 2025. This study examines the main stages of the policy and assesses its results in the country as a whole and in the Altai region in particular. The study shows that the decline in population size in the region is primarily due to rural areas, with changes in gender proportions and an increase in the natural population loss coefficient, which is growing at a faster pace among the rural population. The study also assesses the impact of migration on demographic indicators and finds that financial factors are not the only reason for the current situation. To address these demographic challenges, concrete action must be taken at the municipal level, with socio-economic measures incorporated into the policy. Furthermore, it is important to educate the younger generation in patriarchal traditions to ensure long-term solutions.

Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece

Metropolitan decline in southern Europe was documented in few cases, being less intensively investigated than in other regions of the continent. Likely for the first time in recent history, the aftermath of the 2007 recession was a time period associated with economic and demographic decline in Mediterranean Europe. However, the impacts and consequences of the great crisis were occasionally verified and quantified, both in strictly urban contexts and in the surrounding rural areas. By exploiting official statistics, our study delineates sequential stages of demographic growth and decline in a large metropolitan region (Athens, Greece) as a response to economic expansion and stagnation. Having important implications for the extent and spatial direction of metropolitan cycles, the Athens’ case—taken as an example of urban cycles in Mediterranean Europe—indicates a possibly new dimension of urban shrinkage, with spatially varying population growth and decline along a geographical gradient of income and wealth. Heterogeneous dynamics led to a leapfrog urban expansion decoupled from agglomeration and scale, the factors most likely shaping long-term metropolitan expansion in advanced economies. Demographic decline in urban contexts was associated with multidimensional socioeconomic processes resulting in spatially complex demographic outcomes that require appropriate, and possibly more specific, regulation policies. By shedding further light on recession-driven metropolitan decline in advanced economies, the present study contributes to re-thinking short-term development mechanisms and medium-term demographic scenarios in Mediterranean Europe.

Noninvasive genetic monitoring of Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) from Darjeeling district of Northwest Bengal, India

AbstractChinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) has experienced a rapid population decline across its distribution range mainly due to illegal harvesting for scale and local consumption for meat. We monitored 65 burrows of free‐ranging pangolins and collected 147 fecal droppings from five sites in the Darjeeling district of Northwest Bengal in the central Himalayas. On genetic analysis with the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, we obtained four haplotypes with haplotype diversity of 0.479 ± 0.088. At 15 microsatellite loci, we identified 35 unique genotypes with relatively low level of genetic diversity (Ho‐0.382 ± 0.091). We also estimated the population genetic parameters and demographic history using Bayesian skyline plot which revealed a demographic decline in the population size in the past 200 years. The present study generated the base‐line population genetics estimates of Chinese pangolin, that may be used in genetic monitoring of the population and also aid to the geographical assignment of wildlife crime cases.

Amphibian decline in a Central European forest and the importance of woody debris for population persistence

Achieving an understanding of species’ temporal and spatial abundance patterns is a prerequisite for proper conservation and management decisions. Little is known of the ecological indicators of census size or biomass of terrestrial amphibian communities and historical estimates of population size are rare. Here we took advantage of abundance and biomass data collected in 1967/1968 for a leaf-litter amphibian community in Niepołomice Forest (NF) in south-central Poland. Using the same technique (removal sampling), we censused the amphibian community of this forest 50 years later (2016/2017), spatially matching a subset of current plots with the historical sampling sites. Averaged over all plots, we revealed at least a fourfold decline in amphibian abundance from 2817 ± 776 individuals/ha in 1967 to 674 ± 508 individuals/ha currently, paralleled by a decline in biomass from roughly 15.5 ± 1.7 to 3.8 ± 3.1 kg/ha. The decline was more striking (over 15-fold) for current plots placed in the same forest division as the historical plots (mean counts of 157 ± 103 individuals/ha corresponding in biomass to 1.0 ± 0.5 kg/ha). We also recorded a change in species composition between surveys, and propose that conversion of aquatic habitat and forest succession have decreased amphibian diversity and abundance in NF. Further, we estimated densities of anuran amphibians in forest plots differing in management regime and local habitat characteristics for contemporary plots (all historical plots were placed in managed forest). We found that unmanaged, old growth forest plots with coarse woody debris on the forest floor held on average twice as many anurans compared to plots in managed stands. Average body condition of the most common species, Rana temporaria, measured as a scaled mass index, was enhanced in plots situated in old growth forest. Our findings suggest that the preservation of old growth forests containing coarse woody debris may boost anuran abundance, biomass and body condition, and has the potential to buffer against long-term demographic decline. Moreover, the retention of deadwood could be a means of increasing the conservation potential of managed forests for terrestrial amphibian communities.

Genetic Monitoring of the Last Captive Population of Greater Mouse-Deer on the Thai Mainland and Prediction of Habitat Suitability before Reintroduction

Developing successful conservation programs for genetically depleted species is challenging. Survival and adaptive potential are related to genetic and habitat factors; therefore, conservation programs are designed to minimize risks associated with inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity. The greater mouse-deer (Tragulus napu) is a true forest species that contributes to seed distribution dynamics in forests. However, with continuous demographic decline over the last century in the wild, only captive populations of the greater mouse-deer remain on the Thai mainland. A restoration program initiated 20 years ago has increased their population to more than 100 individuals but maintaining high genetic diversity in a small captive population is crucial for successful recovery. Microsatellite genotyping and mitochondrial D-loop and SRY gene sequence analyses were performed to examine the genetic diversity and population structure in 123 greater mouse-deer (64 females and 59 males). Highly reduced effective captive population size with trends of inbreeding were observed. No historical bottleneck was observed. These conditions have reduced their reproductive fitness and ability to adapt to environmental change, increasing the risk of population decline and eventual extinction. Demographic analyses suggested a recent captive population expansion due to effective animal welfare and reproduction. The results also suggested that population size at equilibrium is the main factor of allelic diversity (number of alleles). Large habitat carrying capacity, representing each fixed captive population size can support the genetic diversity of greater mouse-deer. We also identified suitable habitat areas for reintroduction and long-term in situ conservation of greater mouse-deer using maximum entropy modeling. Based on the environmental variables, species distribution modeling for greater mouse-deer indicated lowland tropical forest regions in the Khlong Saeng-Khao Sok forest complexes as most suitable and requiring urgent habitat improvement. These findings highlight the relevance of careful genetic monitoring and habitat suitability for the long-term conservation of greater mouse-deer and enhance the success of future conservation plans.