Democratic Governor Research Articles

Work from home, polarization, and new residential construction during COVID-19

ABSTRACT This article examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and work-from-home trends on residential construction. We document a decline in building permits filed early in the pandemic, followed by a substantial increase in permits filed during the late 2020 and 2021. Pre-pandemic trends of building in urban areas continued, while substantially less permits were filed in Democrat-voting counties and counties in states with Democrat governors. Our results suggest political re-sorting during the pandemic that may continue in a work-from-home environment.

Bad times keep us together: Policy priorities and economic shocks

AbstractObjectiveWe analyze how economic shocks affect the partisan nature of budgetary trade‐offs and use data from the U.S. Census Annual Survey of Government Finance to illustrate it.MethodsWe propose a compositional approach to model trade‐offs among 10 budgetary categories across both time and space in U.S. states.ResultsWe find support for the notion that partisanship drives the allocation of budgetary expenditures. However, during times of negative economic shocks, either within a state or in neighboring states, Democratic and Republican governors have a similar budgetary response.ConclusionsThe results show the effects of economic and political shifts, as well as the implications of spillovers from other states, on partisan decisions about trade‐offs in government budgets.

Restrictive abortion legislation and adverse mental health during pregnancy and postpartum

PurposeTo determine the impact of abortion legislation on mental health during pregnancy and postpartum and assess whether pregnancy intention mediates associations. MethodsWe quantified associations between restrictive abortion laws and stress, depression symptoms during and after pregnancy, and depression diagnoses after pregnancy using longitudinal data from Nurses’ Health Study 3 in 2010–2017 (4091 participants, 4988 pregnancies) using structural equation models with repeated measures, controlling for sociodemographics, prior depression, state economic and sociopolitical measures (unemployment rate, gender wage gap, Gini index, percentage of state legislatures who are women, Democratic governor). ResultsRestrictive abortion legislation was associated with unintended pregnancies (β = 0.127, p = 0.02). These were, in turn, associated with increased risks of stress and depression symptoms during pregnancy (total indirect effects β = 0.035, p = 0.03; β = 0.029, p = 0.03, respectively, corresponding <1% increase in probability), but not after pregnancy. ConclusionsAbortion restrictions are associated with higher proportions of unintended pregnancies, which are associated with increased risks of stress and depression during pregnancy.

Unraveling the politics-science nexus: diverse strategies in US states’ termination of mask policies

ABSTRACT This study investigates the intentional termination decision of a public health tool (i.e. face-mask policy) in the absence of knowledge regarding the duration of the pandemic. We acknowledge that policy termination is a complicated decision-making process that necessitates multiple considerations. Gleaning perspectives from the literature on the politics-science divide and policy termination theory, two distinct sets of factors emerge as influential: political considerations (i.e. governor’s ideology and public opinion) and scientific considerations (i.e. vaccination rate and healthcare resources). We conduct a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to examine how explanatory factors interplay in diverse ways in shaping mask termination decisions. The results show three equally important pathways in elucidating mask termination decisions: two pathways explained how Republican and Democratic Governors draw upon diverse considerations to end the mask use, respectively. The third path underscores that a level high vaccination rate would explain most states’ mask termination decisions. The results highlight the complexity inherent policy-making during a public health crisis. This study offers a glimpse into the varied approaches adopted by states to navigate the exit from the pandemic. In the broader context of public administration, this study sheds light on how states bridge the gap between politics and science.

Party affiliation, economic interests and U.S. governors’ renewable energy policies

This paper explores the impact of U.S. state governors’ party affiliation and economic interests on renewable energy outcomes. Using data on installed renewable capacity, we find that, on average, Democratic governors had a positive impact on the state-level adoption of renewable energy. However, the effect is highly heterogeneous. There are no differences in renewable energy outcomes between Democratic and Republican governors in states where the energy-intensive manufacturing industries are economically important or in states where the natural renewable endowment is scarce. Consistent with a political economy approach, we argue that in the area of renewable and climate policy, governors’ policy preferences are overridden by holding office motivations and economic interests.

Effective communication in times of crisis: The case of face mask mandates in the United States

AbstractWe evaluate communication policies related to COVID‐19 adopted by governors in the United States and explore how communication and policy directives are impacted by hyper‐polarised situations, namely the presence of a divided government. This work sheds light on the challenges of crisis communication and executive leadership. Using a combination of robust regression and text and sentiment analyses, we compare the timing of and the language used by governors who imposed state‐wide facemask mandates in 2020. We find that racially diverse states with Democratic governors acted more quickly than states with comparably older populations, had more people living in one household, and without health insurance. Further, we find that Democratic governors were slower to act when their decision could be checked by a Republican legislature highlighting the restrictive nature that executives face in crises.

Navigating parental rights: A study of Virginia’s model policies on transgender student treatment

In this study, I explore the discourse surrounding parental rights in U.S. public schools, with Virginia as a focal point. Analyzing two sets of model policies regarding the treatment of transgender students—one established under a Democratic governor and another implemented following the election of a Republican candidate championing parental rights—this research employs qualitative content analysis to gain insight into the contemporary parental rights movement in educational settings. Five key themes emerged: 1. Reliance on expert opinions; 2. Variation in depth and breadth of information within policies; 3. Transgender student inclusion in policies; 4. Student and parent focus imbalance; and 5. Adherence to legal intent. The findings indicate a shift in emphasis from addressing gender identity concerns to prioritizing parental rights, with ramifications for the broader political landscape. This research enriches the ongoing dialogue on the role of parents in education and the consequences of the conservative parental rights movement for educational policy.

Partisan Politics and Excise Tax Rates in the United States

The literature on excise tax rates has provided mixed evidence concerning how partisan ideology affects tax changes. Using a regression discontinuity design and a panel of U.S. states over the period 1970–2019 I find no significant difference in cigarette, distilled spirits, or gasoline excise tax rates between Democratic governors and Republican governors elected by a similar margin. This result is found regardless of whether the governor can run for an additional term or faces a binding term limit. These results are robust to an analysis of the post-southern realignment period, when controlling for southern Democrats, or when analyzing open elections without an incumbent in the running. An implication of this result is that interstate tax competition and the mobility of the tax base dwarfs any ideological differences with respect to excise tax policy.

Predictors of student mask mandate policies in United States school districts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although factors such as urbanicity, population demographics, and political affiliation have been linked with COVID-19 masking behavior and policy in community settings, little work has investigated factors associated with school mask policies. We sought to characterize United States state and school district student COVID-19 masking policies during the 2021-22 school year and determine predictors of these mandates at four time points, including before and after federal guidance relaxed school mask recommendations in February 2022. Student mask policies for US states and the District of Columbia, as well as a sample of 56 districts were categorized as prohibited, recommended, or required in September 2021, November 2021, January 2022, and March 2022 based on the Johns Hopkins eSchool+ Initiative School Reopening Tracker. Changes in policies over time were characterized. Generalized estimating equations and logistic regression were used to evaluate whether political affiliation of governor, urbanicity, economic disadvantage, and race/ethnic composition of district students, and county-level COVID-19 incidence predicted the presence of a district mask mandate at any time point and at all four time points. State and district policies changed over time. Districts that implemented student mandates at any point were more likely to be in states with Democratic governors (AOR: 5.52; 95% CI: 2.23, 13.64) or in non-rural areas (AOR: 8.20; 95% CI: 2.63, 25.51). Districts that retained mask mandates at all four time points were more likely to have Democratic governors (AOR: 5.39; 95% CI: 2.69, 10.82) and serve a smaller proportion of economically disadvantaged students (AOR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95, 0.99). Districts serving a larger proportion of students from minoritized racial/ethnic groups were more likely to have mask mandates at any or all timepoints. Notably, county-level COVID-19 prevalence was not related to the presence of a mask mandate at any or all time points. By March 2022, no factors were significantly associated with district mask policy. Political, geographic, and demographic characteristics predicted the likelihood of student mask mandates in the 2021-22 school year. Public health promotion messages and policy must account for variation in these factors, potentially through centralized and consistent messaging and unbiased, trustworthy communication.

Bridging online and offline dynamics of the face mask infodemic

BackgroundOnline infodemics have represented a major obstacle to the offline success of public health interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Offline contexts have likewise fueled public susceptibility to online infodemics. We combine a large-scale dataset of Twitter conversations about face masks with high-performance machine learning tools to detect low-credibility information, bot activity, and stance toward face masks in online conversations. We match these digital analytics with offline data regarding mask-wearing and COVID-19 cases to investigate the bidirectional online-offline dynamics of the face mask infodemic in the United States.ResultsOnline prevalence of anti-mask over pro-mask stance predicts decreased offline mask-wearing behavior and subsequently increased COVID-19 infections. These effects are partially influenced by low-credibility information and automated bot activity, which consistently feature greater anti-mask stance online. Despite their purported controversy, mask mandates generally decrease anti-mask stance online and increase mask-wearing offline, thus reducing future COVID-19 infections. Notable asymmetries are observed, however, between states run by Democratic and Republican governors: the latter tend to see higher levels of low-credibility information and anti-mask stance online, and thus lower mask-wearing and higher infection rates offline.ConclusionsThese findings contribute new insights around collective vulnerabilities to online infodemics and their links to evolving offline crises. We highlight the need to synergize and sustain targeted online campaigns from legitimate information sources alongside offline interventions in and beyond the pandemic.

Trends in Orthopedic Management of Distal Radius Fractures Among Medicare Beneficiaries From 2019 to 2020: A Claims Analysis

Radius and ulna fractures are among the most common fractures. These fractures are managed through operative or nonsurgical treatment, with varying implications in terms of cost and functional outcome. There are few studies that robustly characterize the management of distal radius fractures (DRFs) in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, this has not been studied among the Medicare patient population, who are particularly vulnerable to fragility fractures and COVID-19. The purpose of this study is to analyze the services provided to Medicare beneficiaries both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to determine how procedure volume was affected in this patient population. We retrospectively analyzed services using the physician or supplier procedure summary data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. All services provided by physicians between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2020, were included. The data were stratified by US census region using insurance carrier number and pricing locality codes. We also compared data between states that maintained governors affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties for the duration of the study. There was an overall decrease in claims regarding DRFs management from 2019 to 2020. There was a dramatic decline in procedure volume (-6.3% vs-12.9%). Of all distal radius related claims there was a relative increase in the proportion of operatively managed DRFs in 2020, from 50.2% to 52.0%. The Midwest saw the greatest decline in operatively managed DRFs, whereas the West experienced the smallest per-capita decline across all procedures. After separating the data by party affiliation, it was also found that operative and nonsurgical procedure volumes fell more sharply in states with Democratic governors. This study shows a decrease in DRF procedural volume among Medicare beneficiaries. This data suggests that the operative and nonsurgical management of DRFs may have been affected by pandemic factors such as quarantine guidelines and supply chain or resource limitations. This may assist surgeons and health care systems in predicting how similar crises may affect operative volume. Therapeutic IV.

The “Waves:” Conceptualizing Covid-19 as an event through one (particularly) contested metaphor

This paper bridges scholarship on events with that on metaphors, positing metaphors as a proxy for competing “forms of eventfulness.” Focusing specifically on the “wave” metaphor, I draw from 471 Governor's Covid-19 Briefing transcripts across ten governors—five Democratic, five Republican—from the year 2020 to identify two competing forms of eventfulness with respect to the Covid-19 pandemic. As I show, using both discourse analytic techniques and simple text counts, Democratic governors take up the “wave” metaphor to present what I call “cascading” eventfulness, defined by multiple conditional moments of rupture, or “waves.” In contrast, Republican governors largely avoid the “wave” metaphor to present what I call “calamitous” eventfulness, defined by a singular, decisive moment of rupture. I conclude with a discussion of how my findings contribute to scholarship on eventfulness and political ideology.

Combating COVID-19 with charisma: Evidence on governor speeches in the United States

Using field and laboratory data, we show that leader charisma can affect COVID-related mitigating behaviors. We coded a panel of U.S. governor speeches for charisma signaling using a deep neural network algorithm. The model explains variation in stay-at-home behavior of citizens based on their smart phone data movements, showing a robust effect of charisma signaling: stay-at-home behavior increased irrespective of state-level citizen political ideology or governor party allegiance. Republican governors with a particularly high charisma signaling score impacted the outcome more relative to Democratic governors in comparable conditions. Our results also suggest that one standard deviation higher charisma signaling in governor speeches could potentially have saved 5,350 lives during the study period (02/28/2020–05/14/2020). Next, in an incentivized laboratory experiment we found that politically conservative individuals are particularly prone to believe that their co-citizens will follow governor appeals to distance or stay at home when exposed to a speech that is high in charisma; these beliefs in turn drive their preference to engage in those behaviors. These results suggest that political leaders should consider additional “soft-power” levers like charisma—which can be learned—to complement policy interventions for pandemics or other public heath crises, especially with certain populations who may need a “nudge.”

Governor's political affiliation and stringent COVID‐19 policy

AbstractThe political affiliation of governors has been highlighted as the most important predictor of a state's aggressiveness in responding to the pandemic, that is, Democratic governors advocated for more stringent policies than their Republican counterparts. However, of the 39 states that issued a statewide stay‐at‐home order (SAHO) mandate, nearly half were led by Republican governors. Using a qualitative comparative analysis, we find that gubernatorial partisanship alone cannot explain SAHO mandates. If partisanship played a role at all, it did so only in states with large metropolitan areas or with fewer public health resources. Regardless of the governor's partisanship, the combination of problem severity and public health resources was sufficient to produce a stringent policy outcome. Emphasis on gubernatorial decisions as purely political overlooks material needs relevant for future pandemic response and the potential for evidence and future coordination.

Predictors of WIC uptake among low-income pregnant individuals: a longitudinal nationwide analysis

BackgroundNutrition during pregnancy is important for maternal and infant health. The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides nutritional support for low-income pregnant and postpartum individuals and children under the age of 5 y. However, WIC participation was in decline in the decade leading up to 2019. ObjectivesThis study examined individual and state predictors associated with WIC uptake among eligible individuals so as to identify subgroups for targeted intervention to improve participation. MethodsData came from the 2004–2019 waves of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), a national survey of individuals who recently gave birth (N = 288,531). Multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine individual- and state-level and temporal predictors of WIC uptake among WIC-eligible respondents. ResultsAmong WIC-eligible respondents, ages of >35 (OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.70), more than high school education (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 062, 0.65), English language proficiency (OR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.74), being married (OR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.72), White race, smaller family size, not having prepregnancy diabetes, and higher income were associated with lower odds of WIC uptake. Respondents in states with higher earned income tax credit rates and in the Northeast, Midwest, and West (compared with the South) had lower WIC uptake. Respondents in states with higher gross domestic product, higher unemployment rates, higher Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and Medicaid caseloads, and Democrat governors had higher uptake; however, effect estimates were small and may not represent a meaningful change. Associations were the strongest during 2009–2015 than during other years, particularly for race/Hispanic origin, language, marital status, prepregnancy diabetes, family size, and prepregnancy. ConclusionsThis study identified several individual- and state-level characteristics associated with WIC uptake among low-income eligible respondents, paving the way for future interventions to target key subgroups to improve program participation.

Governmental Restrictions and Real Estate Investor Risk Perception.

We investigate the impact of governmental restrictions on the short-term risk perception, as proxied by the going-in cap rate, of investors in regional and neighborhood shopping centers. We use the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment and proxy for the length and severity of COVID-19 restrictions with the political affiliation of state governors. Using a sample of 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across 27 states over the period of 2018 to 2021, we find that for states with Republican governors, which proxy for shorter and fewer COVID-19 restrictions, investors in regional malls required a lower going-in cap rate in the pandemic period than for states with Democratic governors. This effect does not exist for neighborhood shopping centers, whose tenants were not as affected by COVID-19 restrictions. Robustness checks suggest that our findings can be explained with mask mandates as one type of governmental restrictions, and that COVID-19 related restrictions do not impact the long-term risk perception of retail real estate investors. We furthermore find that the political attitudes of an MSA have an impact on investor risk perception.

COVID on campus: An empirical analysis of COVID infection rates at U.S. colleges and universities

We provide an empirical analysis of the determinants of cumulative COVID infection rates at 1069 U.S. colleges and universities during the 2020–21 academic year. We propose that financially constrained educational institutions faced a trade-off between the reduction of COVID infection risks and an institution's educational, social, reputational, and financial goals. We find that cumulative infection rates are higher at wealthier institutions, measured by higher endowments per student or higher tuition rates. Institutions with lower enrollment yields in admissions also have higher COVID infection rates, perhaps reflecting the greater influence of student preferences on decision making at these institutions. Economies of scale in COVID mitigation emerge gradually over the course of the year. Finally, COVID infection rates do not differ significantly for otherwise similar public and private institutions in states with Democratic governors, but they are significantly higher for public institutions in states with Republican governors.

Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States

Partisanship of state governors affects the efficacy of US federal fiscal policy. Using close election data, we find partisan differences in the marginal propensity to spend federal intergovernmental transfers: Republican governors spend less than Democratic governors. Correspondingly, Republican-led states have lower debt, (delayed) lower taxes, and initially lower economic activity. A New Keynesian model of partisan states in a monetary union implies sizable aggregate effects: The intergovernmental transfer impact multiplier rises by 0.58 if Republican governors spend like Democratic governors, but due to delayed tax cuts, the long-run multiplier is higher with more Republican governors, generating an intertemporal policy trade-off. (JEL D72, E12, E62, H71, H72, H74, H77)

Along party Lines: Examining the gubernatorial party difference in COVID-19 mortality rates in U.S. Counties

Drawing upon the literatures on risk factors for COVID-19 and the roles of political party and political partisanship in COVID-19 policies and outcomes, this study quantifies the extent to which differences in Republican- and Democrat-governed counties' observable characteristics explain the Republican - Democrat gap in COVID-19 mortality rate in the United States. We analyze the county COVID-19 mortality rate between February 1 and December 31, 2020 and employ the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method. We estimate the extent to which differences in county characteristics - demographic, socioeconomic, employment, health status, healthcare access, area geography, and Republican vote share, explain the difference in COVID-19 mortality rates in counties governed by Republican vs Democrat governors. Among 3,114 counties, Republican-governed counties had significantly higher COVID-19 mortality than did Democrat-governed counties (127 ± 86 vs 97 ± 80 per 100,000 population, p < 0.001). Results are sensitive to which weights are used: of the total gap of 30.3 deaths per 100,000 population, 12.8 to 20.5 deaths, or 42.2–67.7 %, are explained by differences in observable characteristics of Republican- and Democratic-governed counties. Difference in support for President Trump between Republican- and Democrat-governed counties explains 25 % of the additional deaths in Republican counties. Policies aimed at improving population health and lowering racial disparity in COVID-19 outcomes may also be correlated with reducing the partisan gap in COVID-19 mortality.

Playing Politics with Natural Disaster: Hurricane Agnes, the 1972 Election, and the Origins of FEMA

Playing Politics with Natural Disaster: Hurricane Agnes, the 1972 Election, and the Origins of FEMA