Democratic Governor Research Articles

The Popularity of Governors, Electoral Incentives and State Tax Policy

How does the political popularity of a sitting governor affect that incumbent’s tax policy choices? In this paper, I discuss whether, and by what degree, a governor’s popularity affects his or her tax policies between 1970 and 2010. The results show that high levels of popularity may induce governors to act contrary to the interests of independent voters. I find that popular Democratic governors have more incentives to increase corporate taxes, while popular Republican governors are likely to raise sales taxes. Further analysis suggests that popular term-limited governors are more likely to increase total taxes than their counterparts who are eligible for reelection. In addition to explaining the role of popularity in incumbents’ policy choices, these findings improve our understanding of the interaction between voters’ behavior and political attitudes of public officials in representative democracy.

The Montana 2015 Biennium Budget

Newly elected Democratic Governor Steve Bullock called for investing in Main Street, investing more in Montana’s education system, creating health care solutions that improve access for Montanans, and bringing high paying jobs to the state. The governor achieved few of his goals but the legislature did produce a balanced budget that addressed a variety of issues including Montana’s poorly funded state pension system, increased spending in a number of functional areas, provided $110 million in tax cuts, and left the state fiscally sound.

Politics and Morality in State Abortion Policy

AbstractThe number and variety of state policies regulating abortion each year is increasing. Opponents of abortion adopted a strategy of “legal but inaccessible” that has resulted in the passage of more than 700 state laws since the early 1990s. Despite being a very active area of policy making, we lack a coherent explanation for the proliferation of abortion policy. Scholars studying different policies at discrete moments in time have come to conflicting conclusions about how well theories of morality policy and representation explain abortion policy. Using an original dataset comprised of a near-universe of pro- and anti-abortion rights policy from 1973 to 2013, I establish the ways in which partisan control of the government and the moral preferences of constituents shape state policy. I find that anti-abortion rights policies are well explained by both theories but that pro-abortion rights policies are not well explained as a morality policy or with descriptive representation. In addition, I show the heterogeneous effect of representation across anti-abortion rights policies; Democratic women and governors decrease the probability of only certain anti-abortion rights policies.

Why the Top Two Primary Fails California Voters

Why the Top Two Primary Fails California Voters Steven Maviglio In their 2010 ballot argument for Proposition 14, the proponents of the Top Two primary made some bold promises to voters. They said the Top Two would “reduce gridlock,” “give independent voters an equal voice in primary elections,” and “elect more practical individuals who can work together for the common good.” So far, the self-appointed “good government” groups are 0 for 3. Gridlock in Congress is worse than ever. The California Congressional delegation is splintered and partisan, perhaps more so than in a generation. Meanwhile, in Sacramento, a case can be made that the Legislature is finally getting things done (even though voters don’t seem to think so, given approval ratings of less than 40 percent in recent PPIC polls). But the progress that has been made is because of lopsided Democratic majorities that are working with a Democratic governor, the elimination of the need for a super- majority for approval of the state budget, and the revision of term limit laws. Experts widely agree that the Top Two primary has had minimal impact in changing Capitol culture compared to the other more significant reforms. What about independent voters having more influence? It’s hard to make that case; fewer of them are showing up to vote. Voter turnout hit 40-year lows in both June and November. That’s totally at odds with what Prop. 14 proponents predicted. With voters free to pick candidates from both parties in June, they argued, the top-two primary would attract hordes of voters who didn’t declare allegiance to either of the major parties. Instead, record low turnouts have given hard-core partisans greater influence. No candidate that ran under the banner of “independent” instead of belonging to a political party came close to finishing in the Top Two. Republican turned Independent Secretary of State candidate Dan Schnur, whose candidacy was heralded as Exhibit A for how an independent candidate could succeed, received a dismal 9.2 percent of the vote, finishing fourth behind scandal-plagued State Sen. Leland Yee (D-San Francisco). In a key Assembly race last June, moderate Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer tried to advance to the general election by squeezing between a progressive Democrat and a conservative Republican. Despite millions of dollars in independent expenditures by corporate interests, this “different kind of Democrat” failed to woo enough independent voters and finished a distant third. In November, a battle between a moderate Democrat and a more progressive Democrat went to the moderate. But according to a Sacramento Bee analysis, it wasn’t because Republican voters threw their more conservative weight to the moderate. There was no discernible difference in the vote tally between areas with more GOP voters and those with less.

Political Parties and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US States

This paper estimates the causal impact of the party allegiance (Republican or Democratic) of US governors on labor-market outcomes. I match gubernatorial elections with March Current Population Survey (CPS) data for income years 1977 to 2008. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that Democratic governors cause an increase in the annual hours worked by blacks relative to whites, which leads to a reduction in the racial earnings gap between black and white workers. The results are consistent and robust to using a wide range of models, controls, and specifications. (JEL D72, J15, J22, J31, R23)

Medicaid Politics: Federalism, Policy Durability, and Health Reform

Medicaid Politics: Federalism, Policy Durability, and Health Reform

Is Obamacare working?

The answer, as one might imagine, depends completely on whom you ask. The recent, end of March deadline had most members of the Obama administration very happy, showing over 8 million people signed for insurance through state and federal exchanges, which exceeded their goals.1 Overall, 31 states exceeded their targets for enrolment, including a number of heavily Republican states in the South.2 So the answer from the administration would be ‘yes’. The Republicans would say, of course, ‘no’, because that is what they say about anything that might extend financial support for people on a low-income, especially anything proposed by President Obama. The Republican House has voted 54 times now to repeal or alter the Affordable Care Act (ACA). It gives them something to do while they are not passing any legislation of importance on, let’s say, climate change or immigration. States could either design the exchange process themselves or punt it to the federal exchange, which has had well-publicised start-up problems and website crashes. The states that chose to do it themselves were often surprising. Kentucky is a poor state whose economy relies on tobacco and coal (not the best products on which to build a future). Yet Kentucky, led by a practically minded Democratic governor and despite having two of the more reactionary senators in Congress, used federal dollars to help dramatically increase the number of people on Medicaid and begin to enrol people in private programmes. Georgia and Florida were two other states with large enrolments through the federal exchange. Both states are seeing a large demographic shift with increases in African-American and Latino populations that are changing the voting profile to potentially be more Democratic. The governor of Florida, a former champion of industry in the country’s largest for-profit healthcare system, which paid $2 …

Are State Renewable Portfolio Standards Contagious?

AbstractThis study examines whether the target levels of a state's renewable portfolio standard (RPS) are influenced by target levels in neighboring states, controlling for state‐specific characteristics. Contrary to previous studies, target levels in neighboring states have a positive and statistically significant impact. In addition, the renewable energy potential and transmission capacity within a state, as well as in neighboring states, all have a positive and statistically significant impact. Both a state's unemployment rate and its educational attainment have a positive impact. Furthermore, states with Democratic governors have higher RPS target levels. The results also indicate significant regional variation in RPS target levels.

Living Wage Politics in the U.S. States: Understanding Race, Labor, and Party Politics

Since the passage of welfare reform in 1996, the federal government has been increasingly inactive in sustaining income support for working adults and their families. Twenty-nine states have responded to federal inactivity by increasing their state minimum wage standards or enacting and expanding earned income tax credits. This paper investigates the roles that state-level public opinion, Democratic party strength, union membership and labor lobbying, and ethnic diversity have played in creating support for state living wage policies. Having a Democratic governor, Democratic legislative strength, and state initiative and referenda provisions all positively contribute to state living wage standards.

Party Politics, Governors, and Economic Policy

In this article, we evaluate the role of elections in governors' state tax policy making. Does it matter for state taxes whether the governor is a Democrat or Republican and whether she is eligible for re‐election or faces a binding term limit? Using a Regression Discontinuity Design and a panel of U.S. states, we find that the manner in which governors of different parties implement different tax policies turns crucially on the incumbent's eligibility for re‐election. Re‐electable Democratic governors increase income taxes relative to similarly situated Republicans, yielding divergence between party policy positions. However, governors facing a binding term limit exhibit the reverse policy difference, resulting in a movement of policy back together.

The Growing Political Might of Ethnic Voters in California and its Political Ramifications

DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2013-0017 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2014; 6(3): 425–436 Mark J. DiCamillo* The Growing Political Might of Ethnic Voters in California and its Political Ramifications Abstract: The rapid growth of the state’s Latino and Asian American voting popu- lations, coupled with their increasing preference for Democratic candidates, have transformed electoral politics in California over the past 20 years. It is no coinci- dence that since voter registration among the state’s Latinos and Asian Americans began their ascent in the mid-1990s California has changed from a very competi- tive “purple state” in presidential elections to one of the nation’s bluest of blue states. According to Field Poll estimates, more than 90% of the net 3.3 million increase in the state’s registered voters since 1994 has come from the ranks of Latinos and Asian-Americans. This paper traces the growth of Latinos and Asian Americans within the state’s electorate over the past 20 years and examines their growing preference for Democratic candidates in presidential elections during this period. It also compares the opinions of ethnic voters to White non-Hispanic voters on a number of prominent political and social issues through the ongoing statewide survey measurements of the non-partisan Field Poll. The results shed light on the reasons why ethnic voters are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic Party. And, because these demographic changes are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, bodes ill for the long-term electoral fortunes of the California Republican Party. Keywords: African-American vote; Asian-American vote; California politics; ethnic voters; Latino vote. *Corresponding author: Mark J. DiCamillo, Senior Vice President, Field Research Corporation, and Director of The Field Poll, e-mail: markd@field.com The election results in 2012 further strengthened California’s national reputation as a Democratic stronghold. President Barack Obama carried the state by 23 percent- age points, Dianne Feinstein was overwhelmingly re-elected to the US Senate, and Democrats secured two-thirds majority control of both houses of the state legisla- ture, and won most of the congressional races targeted by the GOP. Voters approved also Proposition 30, a statewide tax increase initiative championed by Democratic Governor Jerry Brown and his allies as a means to balance the state budget. The 2012 election outcomes were not unexpected. Obama carried California by a similar margin in 2008 and Democratic candidates have carried California

The Growing Political Might of Ethnic Voters in California and its Political Ramifications

DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2013-0017 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2014; 6(3): 425–436 Mark J. DiCamillo* The Growing Political Might of Ethnic Voters in California and its Political Ramifications Abstract: The rapid growth of the state’s Latino and Asian American voting popu- lations, coupled with their increasing preference for Democratic candidates, have transformed electoral politics in California over the past 20 years. It is no coinci- dence that since voter registration among the state’s Latinos and Asian Americans began their ascent in the mid-1990s California has changed from a very competi- tive “purple state” in presidential elections to one of the nation’s bluest of blue states. According to Field Poll estimates, more than 90% of the net 3.3 million increase in the state’s registered voters since 1994 has come from the ranks of Latinos and Asian-Americans. This paper traces the growth of Latinos and Asian Americans within the state’s electorate over the past 20 years and examines their growing preference for Democratic candidates in presidential elections during this period. It also compares the opinions of ethnic voters to White non-Hispanic voters on a number of prominent political and social issues through the ongoing statewide survey measurements of the non-partisan Field Poll. The results shed light on the reasons why ethnic voters are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic Party. And, because these demographic changes are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, bodes ill for the long-term electoral fortunes of the California Republican Party. Keywords: African-American vote; Asian-American vote; California politics; ethnic voters; Latino vote. *Corresponding author: Mark J. DiCamillo, Senior Vice President, Field Research Corporation, and Director of The Field Poll, e-mail: markd@field.com The election results in 2012 further strengthened California’s national reputation as a Democratic stronghold. President Barack Obama carried the state by 23 percent- age points, Dianne Feinstein was overwhelmingly re-elected to the US Senate, and Democrats secured two-thirds majority control of both houses of the state legisla- ture, and won most of the congressional races targeted by the GOP. Voters approved also Proposition 30, a statewide tax increase initiative championed by Democratic Governor Jerry Brown and his allies as a means to balance the state budget. The 2012 election outcomes were not unexpected. Obama carried California by a similar margin in 2008 and Democratic candidates have carried California

The Montana 2013 Biennium Budget

DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2012-0034 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2012; 4(3): 161–181 Research Article Jeffrey D. Greene* The Montana 2013 Biennium Budget Abstract: Montana’s legislature meets once every two years and constructs a two- year budget. The legislature was controlled by Republicans following the trend of the 2010 mid-term elections but with a Democratic governor who vetoed numer- ous pieces of legislation. The most significant aspect of the legislative session was the contentious nature of the clash between Republicans, Democrats, and the governor over spending. Republicans attempted to cut spending despite the fact that revenues were much higher than originally expected. The state did not have implement significant spending cuts but the fiscal year. However, the fiscal year, which begins July 1, 2013, does not look promising for Montana and budget shortfalls are expected. Keywords: budgeting; fiscal year; Montana; western state budget report *Corresponding author: Jeffrey D. Greene, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, Phone: +406-243-6181, e-mail: jeffrey.greene@mso.umt.edu 1 Introduction Governor Schweitzer submitted his budget, which was roughly a 2% increase over that the previous biennium’s budget. The governor claimed his goals were to boost school and university funding while cutting property taxes for home- owners and eliminating equipment taxes for most businesses (Johnson 2010a). Overall, Montana was in better fiscal shape than most states despite the fact that a budget shortfall was expected to be $400 million in the fall of 2010. This sounds like a small amount compared to large states like California and Texas, but for Montana it is significant (Dennison 2010; Johnson 2010a; Walsh 2011). Montana has never had a reputation for overspending. While the state has a reputation for making accurate revenue estimates, there is a long history of the legisla- ture creating a “barebones budget” that inadequately funds state services. This turned out to be a plus in light of the national economic crisis, but Montana’s economy had not performed as badly as the economies of many states. By the time the session started revenue predictions had improved. Experts predicted a

Oregon, 2011, Budgeting in Difficult Times

DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2012-0036 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2012; 4(3): 199–212 Research Article Donald Stabrowski* Oregon, 2011, Budgeting in Difficult Times Abstract: Keywords: *Corresponding author: Donald Stabrowski, University of Portland 1 Introduction and Overview of the Session On Thursday, June 30, 2011, Oregon legislators adjourned at 2:49 pm in what was the shortest session in 15 years. But despite difficult decisions that had to be made, and given the previous session’s ill-tempered partisanship, it turned out to be a session marked by civility and moderation. When the session opened in January, it appeared that it would be a very contentious session because of the evenly split membership of the House and the narrow Democratic majority of the Senate. Also, with a newly elected Democratic governor, an individual who had served two previous terms as governor a decade ago, few believed the session would proceed smoothly. However, it did move along with relative speed and a surprisingly moderate mood despite its need to address increasing demands on the budget without the hopes of very positive increases in revenue. How then did this session develop in a style that addressed serious issues, manage to make some major changes in public education and health care, and still remain effective? Perhaps the issues facing Oregon, like all other states this year, were so serious and in need of immediate attention that the governor in his budget, as well as the legislators when they began approving the budget, were so much in the forefront of all other issues that there simply was no choice but to address them head on and without the bitter partisanship of previous biennial sessions. The priority of both the governor and the legislature was simply that this was not the time to posture as Oregonians were paying close attention to how lawmakers were going to address problems that affect the daily life of state residents. Another factor that changed the ordinary partisan mood of previous legislative sessions was the lack of an effective majority for either party in the political makeup of the state’s

Procyclical State Spending in the Usa: The Impact of Political Ideology

Fiscal policy is procyclical when government expenditures and tax revenues increase during periods of economic growth and decrease during periods of economic slowdown. This paper estimates sub-central government spending and revenue cyclicality in the USA. The panel dataset comprises observations for 51 states from 1963 to 2006. The paper considers why some sub-central governments are more likely to spend procyclically. The first hypothesis is that differences in cyclicality across the states of the USA reflect differences in voters’ political ideologies. The second is that differences in cyclicality reflect differences in political networks. States are more likely to spend procyclically if the state governor is a Democrat. Ideology is relevant but the likelihood of procyclical spending is even higher if there is a coincidence between a Democratic state governor and Democratic president.

Pressure Cooker Politics: Partisanship and Symbolism in State Certification of Federal Stimulus Funds

AbstractTo access funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, state governors had to formally certify their intent to do so within 45 days of the law's enactment. All governors eventually certified, but with considerable variation in celerity. This study employs event history techniques to model the probability of certifying the ARRA. It argues that the statute's design combined with economic distress within the states rendered manifest rejection of the law politically infeasible but, for state officials with certain partisan commitments, left open the possibility of symbolic resistance or support in the form of time to certification. State leaders relied on party identification to guide their decisions, resulting in markedly different propensities toward certification for Republican and Democratic governors. Results lend credence to this thesis: States with Republican governors were nearly 60% less likely to certify the ARRA on a given day than states with Democratic governors. This finding suggests that when economic constraints and policy design foreclose actual rejection of a federal law, state policymakers may rely on party labels to register their approbation or disapprobation through other means, including the amount of time taken to accept federal funding.

The $500 Million Question: Are the Democratic and Republican Governors Associations Really State Pacs Under Buckley's Major Purpose Test?

This Article offers a case study of Democratic Governors Association (DGA) and the Republican Governors Association, two central financial actors in recent state elections. Between 2002 and 2010, the period that this Article will cover, the Governors Associations participated in gubernatorial elections in forty-eight of fifty states and spent nearly half a billion dollars, yet they have largely escaped regulation by state elections officials in the very states where they lavish money electing governors. But the simple recipe for how the Governors Associations evade campaign finance regulations is not unique to these two groups. Potentially any multistate group may evade these state anti-­corruption laws in the same way.The Governors Associations are everywhere, but in a real sense, they are regulated almost nowhere. What little regulation falls on them is not imposed by the fifty states, but rather by the IRS, which requires the Governors Associations to report their income and spending. This IRS reporting reveals that much of the money filling the coffers of the Governors Associations is actually corporate. A majority of the corporate contributions (over 65%) comes from publicly traded corporations, which raises corporate governance issues as well as democratic concerns.

Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors 2012

U.S. economy expanded between 2003 and 2007, prompting the nation’s governors to expand state budgets and offer the occasional tax cut. But now that the economy has slowed and revenue growth is down, governors are taking various actions to close rising budget deficits. This ninth biennial fiscal report card examines the tax and spending decisions made by the governors since 2003. It uses statistical data to grade the governors on their taxing and spending records—governors who have cut taxes and spending the most receive the highest grades, while those who have increased taxes and spending the most receive the lowest grades. Three governors were awarded an “A” in this report card—Charlie Crist of Florida, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Eight governors were awarded an “F”— Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Ted Kulongoski of Oregon, Rod Blagojevich of Illinois, Chet Culver of Iowa, Jon Corzine of New Jersey, Bob Riley of Alabama, Jodi Rell of Connecticut, and C. L. “Butch” Otter of Idaho. Republican governors, on average, received slightly higher grades than Democratic governors. More importantly, there has been a disappointing lack of major spending reforms among governors of both parties in recent years. State tax policies have also been uninspiring. Most tax cuts pursued by the governors have been small and targeted breaks, not broad-based rate cuts that can foster economic growth. Fiscal policies need to be improved if the states are to meet the huge challenges ahead. Medicaid costs continue to rise, statedebt is soaring, and the pension and health care plans of state workers have huge funding gaps. At the same time, rising international tax competition makes it imperative that states cut tax rates to attract jobs and investment. Governors don’t have an easy job, but they do need to pursue more aggressive fiscal reforms to meet the challenges of an increasingly competitive economy. Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors: 2008

Concentrated Powers: Unilateral Executive Authority and Fiscal Policymaking in the American States

Although executive authority is a critical element in separation of powers systems, an excessive amount is not conducive for responsible policymaking behavior. Unilateral executive powers allow elected executives to pursue policies consistent with their short-term electoral incentives. This proposition is tested by analyzing the relationship between the exercise of unilateral executive control over fiscal policymaking and fiscal-spending growth in the American states. The empirical evidence reveals that exercising some amount of unconstrained policymaking authority with a unitary elected executive promotes higher fiscal-spending growth. These effects systematically vary between Democratic and Republican governors. Specifically, fiscal-spending growth under Democratic governors reaches its apex when they possess either unilateral control over revenue forecasts or budget formulation, whereas, unilateral control over both policymaking tools yields the greatest fiscal-spending growth under Republican governor...

How to Grow California's Economy and Restore Fiscal Sanity to the Budget

THE CALIFORNIA Journal of Politics & Policy Commentary How to Grow California’s Economy and Restore Fiscal Sanity to the Budget Bill Lockyer Treasurer, State of California For Democrats, at this moment in history, the challenge of governing is how do we restore fiscal reality to our state budget and, at the same time, grow our state’s economy? Democrats run for public office because we believe gov- ernment should play an active role in improving the lives of its citizens. Very few Democrats run for office because they want to shrink the size of government. In 2011 and beyond, Democrats will have to defer their historic ideo- logical mission for another time and accept the responsi- bility of cutting government spending now. www.bepress.com/cjpp Volume 3, Issue 2, 2011 The duty will inevitably put a Democratic governor, democratic constitutional officers and, most especially, Democratic legislators at odds with some of the traditional Democratic constituencies and interest groups. And the elected officials can’t shrink from that responsibility. Cali- fornia voters overwhelmingly have chosen Democrats to lead them out of this economic crisis, and if we fail the po- litical consequences in future elections could be profound. Governor Brown has opened the debate by coming for- ward with an honest budget based on real numbers, free of phony accounting gimmicks. Its basic premise is that half of the answer to erasing the deficit should come from cuts in spending and half should come by extending taxes that are scheduled to expire—a formula, by the way, that was also Governor Pete Wilson’s when faced with similar problems. This is both sound policy and good politics. As political leaders and as voters, if we do not close our budget deficits the consequences will be profound. At some point I hope there will be a published proposal of an all-cuts budget so