Democratic Candidates Research Articles

Let’s Get Ready to Tweet! An Analysis of Twitter Use by 2018 Senate Candidates

To what extent did the 2018 Senate candidates adapt their Twitter strategy to match electoral realities during the campaign? Previous literature on the political use of social media suggests that Twitter is a gauge of “word of mouth” popularity and can be seen as an indirect proxy for votes. As such, Senate candidates have an incentive to be strategic in their use of social media during the election season. Relying on the framework set forth by Gainous and Wagner (2014), we categorized senatorial candidates’ tweets using an Artificial Neural Network and analyzed them over time to see if political party, presidential vote margin, incumbency and Senate race competitiveness predict the types of tweets that candidates were likely to send. Senate candidate tweets were also examined to determine under what conditions candidates opted to attack, stay quiet about, or align themselves with President Trump. We found that incumbents tended to talk about policy more and attack less, while challengers attacked their opponents to level the playing field. Democratic candidates followed a conventional strategy of tweeting about Trump where it made strategic sense, and using social media in competitive races to attack their opponents and to encourage supporters to get involved. Republicans followed a base-mobilization strategy consisting of aligning themselves with Trump and attacking their opponents when they were underdogs.

Outlook for democracy and democratic institutions.

If countries are not ready for democracy until they have a well-developed civil society, which can take many years to develop, then we need to identify its essential elements, so that their development can be directly encouraged in new democracies. It is argued here that autonomously elected local governments are the essential elements of civil society. A theory of the foundations of the state should begin by recognizing that states are established by leaders. Both to win power and to wield it, a leader needs an ability to make credible long-term promises of future rewards. For a successful democracy, we need that our democratic candidates should also have reputations for respecting democratic norms and for using public resources effectively in public service, and not just for reliably rewarding loyal supporters. Such reputations for democratic leadership can be generated most abundantly in local politics. In a federal democracy, successful local leaders can demonstrate their qualifications to compete for higher office. In this way, autonomously elected local governments effectively reduce entry barriers into national politics. It is suggested that Americans should never again elect anybody president who has not served responsibly in some lower public office under our constitutional system of government.

REVITALISASI KONSTITUSIONAL DALAM PENENTUAN KANDIDAT PRESIDEN MELALUI PEMILIHAN DEMOKRATIS

The purpose of this research is to explain the constitutional revitalization in determining presidential candidates through internal party elections. This research method is normative law or doctrinal legal research with a legal inventory approach. The results of the research can state that it is constitutionally determined that the state is based on the one and only Godhead. This study uses a normative approach method where the materials used are literature and library materials as well as laws. The conclusion in this research is constitutional revitalization as a process, means, to revive or reactivate according to the Indonesian constitution with the philosophical foundation of Pancasila based on the one and only God for the realization of happiness for the Indonesian people. Constitutional revitalization in determining presidential candidates is related to the requirements for presidential and democratic candidates.

Mobile Internet and Political Polarization

How has mobile internet affected political polarization in the United States? Using Gallup Daily Poll data covering 1,765,114 individuals in 31,499 ZIP codes between 2008 and 2017, I show that, after gaining access to 3G internet, Democratic voters became more liberal in their political views and increased their support for Democratic congressional candidates and policy priorities, while Republican voters shifted in the opposite direction. This increase in polarization largely did not take place among social media users. Instead, following the arrival of 3G, active internet and social media users from both parties became more pro-Democratic, whereas less-active users became more pro-Republican. This divergence is partly driven by differences in news consumption between the two groups: after the arrival of 3G, active internet users decreased their consumption of Fox News, increased their consumption of CNN, and increased their political knowledge. Polarization also increased due to a political realignment of voters: wealthy, well-educated people became more liberal; poor, uneducated people—more conservative.

American Youth and the Presidential Election -2020

The peak for the last 100 years voter turnout became one of the peculiarities of the 2020 presidential election. It revealed itself among every voter age cohort, among them traditionally absentee youth. Its electoral process participation growth can be linked with both its generational features and electoral campaign tactics of Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. A number of factors that helped democrats include personal antipathy of many young Americans towards D.Trump, mail voting expansion and sympathy of youth to J.Biden’s program social safety items.

Courage Above All Things: General John Ellis Wool and the U.S. Military, 1812– 1863 by Harwood P. Hinton and Jerry Thompson

Reviewed by: Courage Above All Things: General John Ellis Wool and the U.S. Military, 1812– 1863 by Harwood P. Hinton and Jerry Thompson Jonathan M. Steplyk Courage Above All Things: General John Ellis Wool and the U.S. Military, 1812–1863. By Harwood P. Hinton and Jerry Thompson. (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 2020. Pp. 536. Illustrations, notes bibliography, index.) By any standard, John Ellis Wool (1784–1869) enjoyed a long and storied career in the U.S. Army through service in the War of 1812, the U.S. war with Mexico, and the Civil War and as an official observer in Europe and a department commander in the East and on the Pacific Coast. Yet strangely, Wool, a man known well enough in his own time to have had his name suggested as a possible Democratic presidential candidate, goes largely unheralded and overlooked in many histories of nineteenth-century America. Courage Above All Things goes far in redressing that neglect. The biography itself was nearly sixty years in the making. Harwood Hinton, distinguished historian of the Southwest, began the project in the early 1960s, scrupulously researching Wool’s life and reworking the manuscript until his death in 2016. Jerry Thompson, of Texas A&M International University, then picked up the baton, editing and reworking Hinton’s project to bring it to fruition. Wool was practicing law in Troy, New York, when the War of 1812 began. An energetic member of a local Jeffersonian militia company, he secured a captain’s commission and distinguished himself for bravery at Queenston Heights and Plattsburgh, successfully parleying his service into a postwar commission and lifelong military career. Wool was easily one of the best-traveled men of his time, observing artillery production on the army’s behalf in Europe and examining numerous U.S. posts as inspector general. War with Mexico gave Wool perhaps his greatest prominence. Then a brigadier general, he assumed command of a division at San Antonio and crossed the Rio Grande into Chihuahua. Occupying Saltillo, Wool endeavored both to suppress guerilla activity and restrain his rowdy volunteers’ [End Page 207] attacks on Mexican civilians. He successfully marched his division to join Zachary Taylor’s army in time for the Battle of Buena Vista, which saw Wool and his men in the thick of the fray. The authors’ account of battle highlights the personal bravery of both Taylor and Wool while persuasively suggesting the latter’s greater tactical ability. The Civil War found Wool to be a zealous defender of the Union as well as the army’s oldest general, two years Winfield Scott’s senior (although physically fitter than Scott for active service). Once again, Wool served at a critical time, during which his abilities were much needed; yet, his contributions tended to be overshadowed. He commanded Fort Monroe during the Peninsula Campaign (successfully capturing Norfolk), held district command during the 1862 Maryland Campaign, and commanded U.S. troops in New York City during the notorious draft riots the following year. Although Hinton and Thompson offer an extensively researched and thorough chronicle of Wool’s life and career, readers might have benefited from more extensive commentary and analysis throughout the work. The authors typically reserve such observations for succinct chapter conclusions, such as describing Wool as “a rigid old soldier” who “was also loyal, industrious, and predictable—invaluable qualities in wartime” (344). This style may reflect the nature of one scholar completing the work of another. Thompson’s contributions include expanding the discussion of Wool’s attitudes toward race. Taking part in the army’s enforcement of Cherokee removal, Wool wrote that the policy “will not tell well in history” (78). After the Civil War, he applauded Andrew Johnson’s Reconstruction policy for not subjecting “the Saxon race” to “equality with the Negro” (373). Another recurring theme is Wool’s administering military policy while clashing with such radical, intemperate elements of antebellum America as Georgia squatters, ill-disciplined citizen-soldiers, California vigilantes, and militant Baltimoreans. Courage Above All Things offers a detailed biography of General Wool, a zealous and dedicated Army Regular, highlighting his fascinating yet underappreciated supporting roles in numerous critical episodes throughout nineteenth-century U.S...

Die US-Präsidentschaftswahl vom 3. November 2020: Trumps Abwahl

The 59th US presidential election took place on November 3, 2020. Four years after his spectacular success, Republican Donald Trump was voted out of office - only the eleventh President in US history to not be re-elected. Democrats and their candidate Joe Biden not only recaptured the White House in a politically and socially divided country. They also succeeded in defending their majority in the House of Representatives and in pushing the Senate to a stalemate. The 46th President of the United States led with seven million votes in the popular vote. After a tight race in particularly decisive states, his result in the Electoral College was similar to Trump’s in the 2016 election. But President Biden owes his victory only to a limited extent to his own strength. Although he unfolded more traction than the previous Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, it was also the Anti-Trump-mood that led to a sharp rise in voter turnout, a high share of absentee-voting, and finally the defeat of the incumbent President. This shift was primarily triggered by highly volatile groups of politically moderate and non-partisan voters as well as by those who did not vote in 2016. At the same time, voters showed high loyalty for Trump. Highly mobilized core voter groups in both camps dug in even further, and the polarization has hardened. Similar to the previous two changes in the Presidency, there is no substantial realignment in the electorate.

U.S.-China Trade Relations in the Biden Era: Trade War, Industrial Policy, and Rule-Based International Order

Presidential candidate Joe Biden's team declared President Trump's trade war with China a failure when Democratic nominee Senator Kamala Harris told Vice President Mike Pence at the U.S. vice presidential debate that “You lost that trade war.” Half a year has passed since Biden took over the White House, the U.S.-China trade war is still going on, though in a much less pompous manner than what President Donald Trump once liked it to be. President Biden refused to make significant change to Trump's tough stance on U.S.-China trade relations on the ground of the accusations of China's “stealing” intellectual property (IP), state subsidies to enterprises, forced technology transfer from foreign companies, among others. On the other hand, China has not backed off from the trade war, though it arguably made many concessions in the so-called “Phase 1 trade deal” signed by the United States and China on January 15, 2020, in which China pledged to buy US$ 200 billion more of American goods and services in 2020 and 2021, in addition to the commitments to strengthen protection and remove forced technology transfer. Evidence suggested that China was still far behind prorated targets of a full year when Biden assumed presidency in January 2021. More significantly, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been taking the opportunities offered by the trade war to remake the Chinese economy toward state capitalism. Additionally, as the trade war was happening, the Trump administration intensified its assault on the multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization (WTO) and effectively paralyzed the Appellate Body, a crucial part of the WTO's Dispute Settlement System.

Elections and Pro-Prosecutor Culture

The 2020 presidential election and campaign leading up to it was unique and historic for a veritable panoply of reasons. Perhaps one of the most momentous events of the campaign season was then Democratic nominee Joe Biden announcing his choice of vice-presidential nominee, Kamala Harris. As the first woman, Black, and Asian American vice-presidential nominee and, eventual, vice president, Harris has already become something larger than her own self — a symbol of hope for the many Americans and others around the world who have been waiting for more diverse people in the highest levels of American government.

The Region in Review: International Issues and Events, 2020

The Region in Review:International Issues and Events, 2020 Nic Maclellan (bio) The global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic dominated regional and international politics throughout 2020. Despite many Pacific countries avoiding the worst impacts, the pandemic highlighted social, political, and economic inequalities, with many vulnerable communities affected by overburdened health systems, changes in food production, and disruption of the formal and informal economy. In the Pacific, there were significant economic impacts from closed borders, reduced international aviation, disrupted supply lines, and a collapse of cheap tourism (Tevi 2020). However, by closing borders, drawing on international support, and mobilizing local culture and capacity, some Island states reported no confirmed cases of covid-19 by year's end, and most avoided the catastrophe seen in Europe, the United States, and many larger developing nations. As Pacific governments turned inward to protect their own citizens, there were stresses and strains in the organizations that make up the Council of Regional Organizations of the Pacific (crop). International and regional bodies postponed face-to-face leaders' meetings, including crucial gatherings such as the annual Pacific Islands Forum (pif) and the twenty-sixth Conference of the Parties (cop26) under the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change, scheduled for Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2020. Throughout the year, leaders highlighted the triple challenge of health, economy, and environment: the impact on medical systems and the hazard of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus combined with comorbidities such as obesity and diabetes; the loss of revenues and taxation for government, with significant stimulus packages adding to national debt levels; changes in remittance flows, employment, and labor mobility in national and regional labor markets; and, above all, the ongoing climate emergency, symbolized by Tropical Cyclones Harold and Yasa. During this complex year, the challenges facing Island governments and communities were overlaid by heightened geopolitical tensions. It was a year of increased US-China jousting, combined with a crisis of democracy in the United States during and after the presidential election that saw the victory of Democrat candidate Joe Biden over incumbent President Donald Trump. Throughout 2020, the Trump administration sought to rally allies like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, France, and India in an effort to contain China's influence in the Islands region. However, most independent Forum Island Countries sought to maintain a foreign policy of "friends to all, enemies to none" and were reluctant to choose sides in this sharpening geopolitical crisis. The pandemic highlighted the interconnections of humanity across the globe. On 6 March, a cruise ship [End Page 500] passenger returning to Hawai'i was diagnosed with the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus. The same day, French Polynesia's representative to the French National Assembly, Maina Sage, returned to Tahiti from Paris infected with the virus after meeting the French education minister, who was later diagnosed with covid-19. Within days, Sage was quarantined in her home. The first coronavirus-related death in the Pacific was announced in Guåhan (Guam) on 22 March, after a patient in the US territory was diagnosed with covid-19 on 15 March. With memories of the post–World War I influenza pandemic and more contemporary outbreaks of infectious disease, Pacific governments quickly closed international borders to overseas travelers in February and March 2020. By April, states and territories reported small numbers of returning nationals and overseas staff in quarantine, avoiding the widespread community transmission evident in many larger nations. Due to prompt action to ban cruise ships, strengthen quarantine systems, and boost border controls, many smaller countries, including the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Tokelau, Tonga, and Tuvalu, reported no cases of infection throughout the year. By year's end, Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia had just one case each, and Sāmoa two. In contrast, a much greater number of confirmed cases of covid-19 occurred in French Polynesia, Guåhan, Hawai'i, West Papua, Rapa Nui, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Kanaky New Caledonia, all of them colonial dependencies that do not fully control their borders. French Polynesia had just four cases in April, May, and June, but when France reopened its borders on 15 July, a surge of tourists and returning...

Politics and Gender in the Executive Suite

Are the political preferences of CEOs associated with the representation and compensation of women in the executive suite? We find that Democratic CEOs (those who contribute more to Democratic candidates) are associated with higher representation of women in the executive suite. To explore causality, we use an event study approach and show that replacing a Republican with a Democratic CEO is associated with 20%-60% in more women in the executive suite. Finally, we show that Democratic CEOs associated with a significant reduction (or even disappearance) of the gender gap in the level and performance-sensitivity of executive pay.

Determine the impact on the U.S. and China’s economy based on Correlation analysis

The US presidential election is held every four years. 2020 is the year of US presidential election, with Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic counterpart Joe Biden running for president. The results of this election are not only of great significance to the economic development of the U.S., but will also have an important impact on the development of Sino-US trade and the world economy. We need to consider the policy measures taken after the election of Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden to determine the corresponding economic change indicators, and collect data related to the domestic economy during the president’s administration in the past few years. Correlation analysis is used to obtain the Pearson coefficient, which eliminates the more relevant indicators, and uses the remaining indicators to establish the back-propagation (BP) neural network economic impact prediction model after Trump and Biden are elected respectively. We obtain the economic development trend of the U. S. in the next few years through model solving.

Strategy Framing in News Coverage and Electoral Success: An Analysis of Topic Model Networks Approach

ABSTRACT Past studies examined the prevalence of strategy framing in news coverage and its effects on cynicism, knowledge, and content evaluation. Missing from the literature is an examination of the relationship between strategy framing in news and electoral success, the actual goal of political campaigns. Similarly, factors that shape media use of strategy framing on the candidate and race levels were rarely examined. We argue that these gaps in knowledge are due to taxing coding procedures required for systematic estimation of strategy framing in large corpora. We use a recently developed unsupervised computational method (ANTMN) to automatically code the news coverage of 312 U.S. Senate candidates in 156 races between 2008 and 2016 in a corpus of 181,725 articles. We found that strategy framing is negatively associated with electoral success. Strategy-oriented news coverage is associated with the competitiveness of the race; candidates’ experience; and for Democratic candidates only, the conservativeness of the state.

The Female Standard:

The year 2020 has made plain many injustices present in the systems and worldviews of American society. In a divisive election year, the factor of “electability” was of key importance in the effort to nominate a candidate to oppose the sitting President. In considering the question “Where do we go from here?”, we ought to wrestle with our communal decision that the female candidates vying for the Democratic nomination were categorically unelectable or less electable simply because of their femaleness. This paper seeks to explore how interpretation of our Scriptures has played a role in sustaining the societal structures which foster inequality. And, more importantly, how our Scriptures can fruitfully be interpreted to validate female leadership.
 Using the example of the story of Martha and Mary in the Gospel of Luke, this paper will problematize modern readings that have created a culture of devaluing female leadership. The history of interpretation of the story of Martha and Mary has evolved in many phases, the most relevant being that interpretation has narrowed from a story of discipleship for all Christians to a story that only has meaning for women. Reflecting on both Scripture and current gender studies commentary, this paper will call into question the unreasonable expectations of American women and consider where we ought to go from here.

‘Can You Imagine Such a Marshal?’: Hollywood Westerns and John F. Kennedy’s Cold War

Accepting the Democratic nomination for president in July 1960, John F. Kennedy exhorted his fellow Americans to join him in a mission of national sacrifice on the ‘New Frontier’. This article will explore the influence of frontier mythology on the foreign policy rhetoric of the Kennedy administration. It will show how the prevalence of the Western in U.S. popular culture led Kennedy and his advisers to carefully construct a meaningful Cold War discourse, one which attempted to situate the administration’s foreign policy within a heroic narrative of westward expansion. Yet this rhetorical strategy proved something of a double-edged sword; at key moments during his presidency, Kennedy found his ‘New Frontier’ rhetoric being turned against him by critics of his foreign policy. Led by Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, these opponents accused the president of deviating from the mythic narratives he appealed to in his speeches, charging that the ‘New Frontier’ was but a pale imitation of the old. By exploring this contest over frontier mythology and its interaction with U.S. foreign policy, this article seeks to add a new dimension to the recent ‘narrative turn’ in international history.

Detecting Anomalies in the 2020 US Presidential Election Votes with Benford’s Law

This study applies Benford’s law to detect anomalies in county-level vote data for the 2020 US presidential election. Most prominent distribution violations are observed with Republican vote counts in blue states, all vote counts in states won by the Democratic candidate, and Democratic vote counts in swing states. Distributions are anomalous in swing states won by the Democratic nominee and not anomalous in swing states won by the Republican nominee. The results are robust to two-digit analysis, Monte Carlo simulations of p-values, broad or narrow swing state definitions, and when compared to distributions observed in 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.

Foreign Policy of President Kh. Battulga (2017-2020)

Mongolia located between Russia and China has been the object of close attention not only for its geographic neighbors, but also for non-regional states called as “third neighbor”. That’s why Mongolian foreign policy has traditionally been an important part of its development strategy. One of the main roles in the process of determining Mongolia’s foreign policy strategy belongs to the President. Democratic Party candidate Kh. Battulga won at the Presidential elections in 2017. All his steps in the field of foreign policy can be divided into three main areas. Firstly, the President of Mongolia has established himself as a supporter of improving relations with Russia, primarily through intensifying trade and economic cooperation and active personal diplomacy towards the Russian side. Secondly, Kh. Battulga demonstrated diplomacy in the Chinese direction though he had difficult time to build cooperation with the southern neighbor of Mongolia due to his election campaign criticizing China. . . Thirdly, Kh. Battulga made some changes in the strategy of relations with the “third neighbor”. For example, he rejected an active participation in some global international events and stayed indifferent to the idea of “permanent neutrality” of Mongolia. Perhaps the most serious foreign policy initiative of the new President of Mongolia was the idea of joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a permanent member. This idea has caused serious political discussions in the country, dividing the expert network into supporters and opponents of the President’s initiative. However, despite certain changes in Mongolia’s foreign policy under the President Battulga, it is difficult to state a radical turn in the foreign policy strategy. Due to political and legal reasons, as well as the external conditions of social and economic development of Mongolia, the President is not able to change the main foundations and principles of foreign policy of the state formed in the post-socialist period. Meanwhile it could be admitted that in Mongolia’s foreign policy the rationality based on the ideological solidarity (“commonwealth of democracies”) is gradually giving way to the rationality of a geographical contiguity and economic pragmatism.

Strategic position taking: optimal strategy for Senate candidates in the Obama era

ABSTRACT In this paper, we test the optimal position taking strategy for senators running for reelection vis-à-vis their party’s president. Using data from a survey experiment conducted using a national sample, we examine the responses towards three hypothetical Democrats: (i) ‘embracing’ or supportive of Barack Obama (ii.) ambiguous about their attitude towards Obama (iii.) ‘eschewing’ or opposed to Obama. Comparing participants exposed to the ambiguous and the embracing Democrat, we find some evidence of a difference in candidate preference, but little evidence to suggest that the strategy gains votes. Comparing participants exposed to the eschewing Democrat to the embracing Democrat, we find that the strategy does yield some gains but these are offset by losses amongst the base. Overall, these findings suggest that the optimal reelection strategy for Democratic candidates is to remain supportive, unless they are running in areas with a high concentration of Republicans—then the eschew strategy can yield some gains.

Choosing a Candidate: Traits, Issues, and Electability

This research investigates the roles of issues, traits, and electability in the 2020 U.S. presidential nominating contest. These analyses utilize survey data gathered at political rallies in Iowa leading up to the caucuses and state and national news coverage. First, we identified the traits and issues respondents used to describe their support for a particular Democratic candidate over others. Next, we determined how issues, traits, and electability differed among the candidates. Finally, an analysis of news coverage uncovered how each candidate’s electability was framed. We found supporters of moderate candidates were more likely to mention candidate traits as reasons for their support, whereas supporters of progressive candidates were more likely to mention issues. Despite the media focus on electability, respondents did not indicate that as a primary reason for supporting a candidate. State and national news coverage treated the electability of Democrats vying for the party nomination quite differently, depending on the candidate’s gender and ideology.

The End of Liberal Engagement with China and the New US–Taiwan Focus

Using neoclassical realist theory, this paper focuses on how the liberal logic underpinning the US engagement policy with the People's Republic of China (PRC) – to promote the PRC's greater marketization, internationalization, political opening, and even democratization – has shaped Washington's One‐China/strategic ambiguity policy since 1972. This approach is used to deal carefully with the Taiwan Strait impasse. However, as strategic competitions intensify between the United States and PRC, the Donald Trump administration is strengthening Washington–Taipei ties, in line with conservative nationalism, to counter a more assertive and authoritarian China. Declaring the failure of past engagement upheld by presidents following Nixon, the Trump government is less cautious about upsetting Beijing through the United States' more explicit backing of the island democracy. The United States’ bolstering of Taiwan's status, though short of recognizing its sovereignty, has received strong bipartisan support in Washington and is unlikely to be changed even if Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, is elected president in November 2020.