Labor Demand Research Articles

Do We Know What Hit Us? Bartik Shocks, Labor Demand, and Local Productivity in Europe

Do We Know What Hit Us? Bartik Shocks, Labor Demand, and Local Productivity in Europe

A General Equilibrium Analysis on the Potential Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) on African Economies

This study investigates the potential impact of the African Free Continental Trade Area on welfare, gross domestic product, labor demand, industrial output, and trade. To achieve the objectives, the study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project database 11. The database was used to aggregate Sub-Saharan Africa into five major regions according to geographical location Western, Southern, Northern, Eastern, and Central Africa. Sectors were grouped into agriculture, services, utility and construction, transportation and communication, heavy manufacturing, light, manufacturing, and extraction. The simulation scenario was conducted for three periods; 2025, 2030, and 2035. The result shows that gross domestic product will increase to 8,277,010 trillion by 2030. Western Africa will contribute the highest share followed by Northern, and Southern Africa. Trade result reveals that import and export will increase throughout the simulation periods with the highest potential discovered in southern Africa to be 34.1% for imports and 33.9% for exports in 2035. Labor demand shows an increase in 2025 and 2035 but a decline in 2030 in all sectors except agriculture which shows a resilience demand for labor up to 0.41%. The industrial output shows an increase in all periods with huge potential in the service industry with a 22.8% increase in 2035 followed by transportation with an 18.59% increase in 2035. Welfare also shows an increase through the periods with allocative efficiency producing the highest contribution to welfare with a total of 30% increase in all periods.

Who Benefits from AI? Project-Level Evidence on Labor Demand, Operations and Profitability

Who Benefits from AI? Project-Level Evidence on Labor Demand, Operations and Profitability

Factory Automation, Labor Demand, and Local Labor Market

Factory Automation, Labor Demand, and Local Labor Market

Research on project schedule optimization model construction and engineering efficiency improvement method

Abstract Project schedule management is an important guarantee for the smooth implementation of the project, which is closely related to the interests of all parties involved in the project, and how to improve the efficiency and quality of the project is a problem that still needs to be solved. In this paper, with reference to the actual situation in the project engineering, the objective function of schedule, cost, quality, and safety is proposed, and the multi-objective optimization mathematical model of the project engineering is obtained through multi-attribute utility theory modeling. Based on the objective function and constraints, the fitness function is established, the constructed model is solved using a genetic algorithm, and safeguard measures are designed to improve the efficiency of project engineering. The empirical results show that the duration and labor demand in the project schedule optimization scheme proposed by the model in this paper are much lower than those in the planning scheme of traditional project schedule optimization methods. Compared to the traditional method, the total cost of the project works decreased by 8.70%, while the quality of the work improved by 0.71%. It shows that the model can improve the quality of project efficiency and enhance the economic benefits of the entire project. The model proposed in this paper makes project schedule optimization more scientific, reasonable, and practical and has certain theoretical and practical significance. In addition, the establishment of a perfect schedule risk management mechanism can be considered in future research in this field to further improve the project schedule optimization model.

Agronegócio 4.0: metodologia para escolha de sistemas de ordenha robotizada

Abstract The objective of the article was to select a robotic system for milking and identify its benefits within the Agribusiness 4.0 concept. The study took place on a rural property that implemented robotization in dairy milking in 2021. The selection took place with the help of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, considering three basic criteria and three milking systems. The analysis considers the mechanized milking process (70 animals) with the implementation of robotization (increase in the herd to 107 heads). The results show, among the benefits of robotization, the reduction in demand for manual activities, contributing to the reduction of direct labor and cost reduction, considering that the robot controls consumption and productivity per matrix. In general, the results shows benefits in aspects related to the feeding of dairy cows, control of animal health and welfare, productivity and labor. It is noteworthy that investments made in technology, as recommended by Agribusiness 4.0, contribute to operational improvements (labor demand) and productivity, which can benefit rural producers' satisfaction with dairy farming.

Tasks at Work: Comparative Advantage, Technology and Labor Demand

Tasks at Work: Comparative Advantage, Technology and Labor Demand

Inequality and technological change

We study how technological change affects between‐ and within‐education‐group inequality in the United States. We develop a model with heterogeneous workers and firms in which the demand for skills is characterized by firms' recruiting behavior. We use the model to quantify the relative contribution of two types of technological change that affect the relative demand for skilled labor: technological change in firm‐specific productivity and technological change in labor productivity. We find that technological change in labor productivity, in the form of higher returns to skill in production, is the main driver of the increase in between‐ and within‐group inequality. Technological change in firm productivity, in the form of higher firm productivity dispersion, plays a less important role in explaining rising inequality, except for the increase in within‐group inequality for workers without a college degree.

СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ РОСТА ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЬНОСТИ ТРУДА

The subject of the study is the main social and economic aspects of labor productivity growth in the Russian economy. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate the dependence of some significant social processes on increasing the level of labor productivity in the country’s economy. The relevance of the study is associated with the need for a clearer awareness of the need for essentially no alternative measures to increase labor productivity, both on the part of the state and business. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the clear identification of connections between the growth of aggregate labor productivity, and economic and social processes: achieving sustainable competitiveness of the country’s economy, curbing inflation, overcoming mass poverty, lowquality labor migration, ensuring a high level of demand for productive labor. The research reveals the practical significance of such theoretical categories as the marginal product of labor, the marginal value of labor in maintaining widespread employment in the economy, and labor productivity for the competitiveness of the economy. The research methods are analysis, systematization, synthesis, induction, and deduction. As a result of the study, the key role of increasing general economic labor productivity to streamline some pressing social processes and achieve positive economic and social indicators was identified and substantiated.

Кадровый дефицит в российских регионах

The objective of this research is 1) to explore time and space characteristics, as well as the origin of labor shortage and 2) to find out whether there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between labor shortage and its determinants using panel data for 82 subjects of the Russian Federation over 2000–2021 and some tools of panel data econometrics. Since 2012 the number of job vacancies has exceeded the number of unemployed persons, and this excess has become a permanent feature of the labor market. The job vacancy rate grew by 0,12% annually and doubled over the observation period, which means ‘labor hunger’ did not fall as snow from the sky. In 78% of panel observations the job vacancy rate does not exceed the market benchmark of 3,5% , and the number of regions with a very low job vacancy rate greatly exceeds the number with a high rate, which does not support the idea of ‘labor hunger’ countrywide. The demand for blue-color workers is well above the average in industrial Russia, and the demand for white-color workers is above average in in less industrialized regions. There is a shortage of blue-color workers in regions with developed manufacturing, transportation, and service sector. Hence a high job vacancy rate for blue-color labor. Yes, there is another Russia, where these sectors are underdeveloped generating weak demand for blue-color labor. Labor shortage is multiregional shortage of predominantly blue-color workers. The results of econometric exercises suggest there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between labor shortage and its determinants such as real wage, the level of unemployment and business cycle

Indonesian seafarers in global job competition: Developing global work competencies in increasing end-user acceptance

The demand for global seafaring labor has also increased drastically because of a shortage of qualified seafarers. This study examined the effect of global employability competence and sensory, behavioral, and intellectual experience mediating the end-user acceptance of ship crew management. The study's sample consisted of 240 ship crew managers who employed Indonesian seafarers. The analysis was completed utilizing the Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Method. The results stated that global employability competence significantly influenced end-user acceptance, even though the sensory experience could not mediate the relationship between global employability competence and end-user acceptance. Furthermore, the behavioral and intellectual experiences bridged these links where the intellectual experience's impact was more potent than the behavioral experience to increase end-user acceptance.

РИНОК ПРАЦІ: ВИКЛИКИ ЦИФРОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ ТА ВОЄННОГО ЧАСУ

The article discusses topical issues related to the impact of the digital economy and wartime on the labor market. It is determined that the consequences of the war are primarily reflected in job losses, the difference between labor supply and demand, deepening imbalances in qualifications and the difficulty of reproducing the labor force. It is analyzed that, in addition to traditional methods of labor reproduction, digital reproduction is effective in this context, providing technological industrial renewal and reforming the educational system. Although digital transformation poses challenges, such as the displacement of certain social groups from the labor market and the growing digital divide, it has been shown to increase productivity, increase wages, and reduce labor needs. The study concluded that amid the war in Ukraine, there is a problem of access to the digital economy, technological modernization of industry, legislative reform, and intensification of entrepreneurship. An important area for the implementation of these measures is the development of a program of state incentives, reform of the educational system and social unemployment insurance. Digital innovations are affecting the skills requirements for employees and for successful employment in general, which can lead to social disputes and significantly widen the gap between different social groups. The consequences of the war, including active hostilities and shelling, are leading to increased imbalances in the labor market and a reduction in the number of jobs. The author concludes that in order to minimize the risks associated with digital transformation, it is critical to use strategic solutions, including the creation of a government incentive program to increase jobs, legislative regulation of employee rights protection and restrictions on automation, and the creation of an education system to meet the requirements of digital labor market reforms. In addition, it is necessary to ensure effective social unemployment insurance measures to ensure stability and protection of citizens in the new labor market conditions.

ЦИФРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА: АНАЛИЗ ТЕНДЕНЦИЙ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВ РАЗВИТИЯ В УСЛОВИЯХ БЫСТРО МЕНЯЮЩЕГОСЯ МИРА

This article discusses the main aspects of the development of the digital economy. What trends exist in Russia and the world. Adaptation of human life, the introduction of digitalization in the field of public administration and science, as well as changes in the labor market and demand for qualified personnel.

ФАКТОРИ МОБІЛЬНОСТІ ПРАЦІВНИКА У СУЧАСНИХ УМОВАХ

The article examines the peculiarities of employee mobility under martial law, which consist in a fundamental change in the labor market environment due to increased imbalances in the labor market in terms of labor supply and demand, mass migration movements to the western regions of the state and abroad, and the impact of global changes in human resource management on the course of employee mobility. The article examines the trends in the development of global trends in human resources management and their impact on employee mobility, identifies peculiarities in the processes of employee mobility under the influence of destructive factors caused by the consequences of active hostilities, analyzes the impact of global trends in human resources management on employee mobility, and identifies problematic aspects in the existing processes of employee mobility. The reasons for internal employee mobility are analyzed, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and military escalation, namely, the increase in gender imbalances in the labor market, the reorientation of its qualification and professional component, and the introduction of the latest technologies in human resource management processes, in particular, models of generative artificial intelligence. The role of social dialogue, a human-centered approach, and macroeconomic stability in enhancing employee mobility is highlighted. The influence of corporate culture, relevant skills, and social status, in particular as a result of the mass migration of Ukrainians to save their lives, an increase in the share of women in the labor market due to the mobilization of men, new concepts of employment, and alternative ways of acquiring qualifications, is determined. The author identifies and summarizes the negative and positive factors of labor mobility that affect labor productivity and human capital development. The importance of the latest technologies and digital access for employee mobility is considered, namely the introduction of environmental, social, and governance standards, in particular the reorientation of business processes in accordance with the principles of the green economy, and the importance of proper corporate insurance and social protection is emphasized since, as never before, safety is now a key aspect of an effective working environment.

The Implications of the Interplay between Global Value Chains and Technology for Labour Productivity and Demand

The Implications of the Interplay between Global Value Chains and Technology for Labour Productivity and Demand

ПІДВИЩЕННЯ КОНКУРЕНТОСПРОМОЖНОСТІ ТУРИСТИЧНОГО БІЗНЕСУ УКРАЇНИ

The purpose of the article is to develop directions for improving the competitiveness of the tourism business in Ukraine and to analyze the problems that complicate the formation and development of strategic, socio-cultural potential and human capital. The main components of the tourism business, which includes a wide range of activities aimed at meeting the needs and wishes of tourists (tourist accommodation facilities, transportation services, travel agencies and tour operators, restaurants, cafes and other catering establishments, entertainment and cultural services, recreation and health services, shops and souvenir shops, etc), are highlighted. In the context of the war, Ukraine's tourism business faces several serious challenges that complicate the formation and development of its strategic potential: instability, deteriorating image, reduced investment, loss of infrastructure, and social and economic problems. The main negative factors affecting the formation and development of human capital, which is one of the key components of the tourism sector's success, are security, employee migration, lack of qualifications, decreased demand for labour, and the psychological state of employees. The socio-cultural potential has a particularly significant impact on the efficiency and competitiveness of the tourism business, as it reflects cultural values, readiness for change, and other aspects that may affect the perception and distribution of tourism products. The main problems of socio-cultural potential development include a decline in cultural activity, damage to historical and cultural monuments, loss of cultural heritage, a decline in cultural tourism, changes in cultural stereotypes, and a decrease in investment in cultural development. The main areas for improving the competitiveness of Ukraine's tourism business include the development of tourism infrastructure, improving the quality of tourism services, promoting Ukraine in the global tourism market, creating a favourable environment for tourism development, and developing new types of tourism. Solving these problems requires a comprehensive approach and joint efforts of the government, an international coalition, industry organizations and the public.

Smart Transformation Technology for Digitizing T Oilfield

In response to the current situation of T Oilfield being remote, with high total labor demand, dispersed well distribution, and low automation levels, this paper systematically summarizes the digital technologies and application effects in the construction of S operation area. By integrating process optimization, streamlining management levels, and incorporating video and communication technologies, a low-cost digital construction model for T Oilfield is established. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, with the goal of reducing construction investment and streamlining management levels, the low-cost digital construction model is applied to adjust the organizational structure of T Oilfield, reduce total labor demand, and achieve cost-effective, digitally lean management.

Analysis of collision damage of Fritillaria ussuriensis Maxim during drum screening

AbstractDuring the drum screening of Fritillaria ussuriensis Maxim (FUM), collisions between FUM bulbs are the main cause of mechanical damage. The effects of the mass relationship and the position, direction, and height of the collision on the absorbed energy and mass–loss ratio of FUM were analyzed through collision tests. The results of the constructed regression models showed that the collision direction has no significant effect on the mass–loss ratio, whereas the mass relationship and the position, direction, and height of the collision showed significance. Under different mass relationships, the collision positions and direction, and the collision height are positively correlated with the absorbed energy and mass–loss ratio, and the absorbed energy is also positively correlated with the mass–loss ratio. In addition, the influence of the mass relationship and collision height, position, and direction on the absorbed energy are highly significant. The research findings serve as a valuable reference for designing and developing low‐loss drum screening processes.Practical applicationsFritillaria ussuriensis Maxim (FUM) is a traditional Chinese medicine. The planting area is wide and the economic benefit is high. The annual economic benefit for farmers is about 1.8 billion yuan. However, the existing production method has a low degree of mechanization, especially the harvest stage, which mainly relies on manual harvesting, is limited by the number of labor force and the harvest time is in the rainy season (FUM is easily spoiled in water), which is easy to cause economic losses. To determine better working parameters, the damage factors of FUM during screening were analyzed by developing and testing the drum‐type FUM harvester. It is helpful to improve the production efficiency of FUM, and reduce the labor demand and the damage of screening to FUM.

The Greener, the Higher: Labor Demand of Automotive Firms During the Green Transformation

The Greener, the Higher: Labor Demand of Automotive Firms During the Green Transformation

Сценарная оценка макроэкономических эффектов прогрессивного налогообложения в России

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of alternative options of progressive taxation on Russia’s macroeconomic performance. For quantitative assessments, a neoclassical general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households subject to idiosyncratic income shocks was used. Three groups of scenarios were analyzed, setting a threshold progressive tax scale with thresholds of 30, 50, and 70 thousand rubles, under which state income tax revenues (1) grow, (2) remain unchanged, and (3) decline. The maximum personal income tax rate in the analyzed scenarios was 25%. Steady states and transitions were calculated for the scenarios. According to the quantitative estimates, the first reform leads to a loss of 0.3% to 1.3% of GDP in the long run, depending on the assumed rates and threshold. Despite the increase in lump-sum transfers, aggregate household consumption decreases by 0.5–1.7% in all cases. The second reform leads to a loss of 0.2% to 0.6% of GDP in the long run. The third reform leads to insignificant fluctuations of GDP within 0.1%: GDP increases at the threshold of 30 thousand rubles and decreases at other thresholds. The scale of inequality reduction, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases with an increase in the top tax rate. However, as the threshold increases, the depth of the Gini index reduction first increases and then decreases. In the short run, there is upward pressure on wages and prices. This is because a decrease in labor supply with unchanged capital in the short run leads to an increase in wage rates (a shift along the labor demand curve), and an increase in wage rates means an increase in marginal costs for firms, leading to higher prices.