Deglacial Temperature Research Articles

Towards spatio-temporal comparison of simulated and reconstructed sea surface temperatures for the last deglaciation

Abstract. An increasing number of climate model simulations is becoming available for the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Assessing the simulations' reliability requires benchmarking against environmental proxy records. To date, no established method exists to compare these two data sources in space and time over a period with changing background conditions. Here, we develop a new algorithm to rank simulations according to their deviation from reconstructed magnitudes and temporal patterns of orbital and millennial-scale temperature variations. The use of proxy forward modeling allows for accounting for non-climatic processes that affect the temperature reconstructions. It further avoids the need to reconstruct gridded fields or regional mean temperature time series from sparse and uncertain proxy data. First, we test the reliability and robustness of our algorithm in idealized experiments with prescribed deglacial temperature histories. We quantify the influence of limited temporal resolution, chronological uncertainties, and non-climatic processes by constructing noisy pseudo-proxies. While model–data comparison results become less reliable with increasing uncertainties, we find that the algorithm discriminates well between simulations under realistic non-climatic noise levels. To obtain reliable and robust rankings, we advise spatial averaging of the results for individual proxy records. Second, we demonstrate our method by quantifying the deviations between an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations and a global compilation of sea surface temperature reconstructions. The ranking of the simulations differs substantially between the considered regions and timescales, which suggests that optimizing for agreement with the temporal patterns of a small set of proxies might be insufficient for capturing the spatial structure of the deglacial temperature variability. We attribute the diversity in the rankings to more regionally confined temperature variations in reconstructions than in simulations, which could be the result of uncertainties in boundary conditions, shortcomings in models, or regionally varying characteristics of reconstructions such as recording seasons and depths. Future work towards disentangling these potential reasons can leverage the flexible design of our algorithm and its demonstrated ability to identify varying levels of model–data agreement. Additionally, the algorithm can be applied to variables like oxygen isotopes and climate transitions such as the penultimate deglaciation and the last glacial inception.

Deglacial Temperature and Carbonate Saturation State Variability in the Tropical Atlantic at Antarctic Intermediate Water Depths

AbstractVariations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) redistribute heat and nutrients, causing pronounced anomalies of temperature and nutrient concentrations in the subsurface ocean. However, exactly how millennial‐scale deglacial AMOC variability influenced the subsurface is debated, and the role of other deglacial forcings of subsurface temperature change is unclear. Here, we present a new deglacial temperature reconstruction, which, with published records, helps assess competing hypotheses for deglacial warming in the upper tropical North Atlantic. Our record provides new evidence of regional subsurface warming in the western tropical North Atlantic within the core of modern Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), an early deglacial interval of iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic. Our results are consistent with model simulations that suggest subsurface heat accumulates in the northern high‐latitude convection regions and along the upper AMOC return path when the AMOC weakens, and with warming due to rising greenhouse gases. Warming of AAIW may have also contributed to warming in the tropics at modern AAIW depths during late HS1. Nutrient and reconstructions from the same site suggest a link between AMOC intensity and the northward extent of AAIW in the northern tropics across the deglaciation and on millennial time scales. However, the timing of the initial deglacial increase in AAIW to the northern tropics is ambiguous. Deglacial trends and variability of in the upper North Atlantic have likely biased temperature reconstructions based on the elemental composition of calcitic benthic foraminifera.

Deglacial temperature and carbonate saturation state variability in the tropical Atlantic at Antarctic Intermediate Water Depths

Deglacial temperature and carbonate saturation state variability in the tropical Atlantic at Antarctic Intermediate Water Depths

Reconstruction of Past Antarctic Temperature Using Present Seasonal δ18O–Inversion Layer Temperature: Unified Slope Equations and Applications

Abstract Reconstructing the history of polar temperature from ice core water isotope (δ18O) calibration has remained a challenge in paleoclimate research, because of our incomplete understanding of various temperature–δ18O relationships. This paper resolves this classical problem in a new framework called the unified slope equations (USE), which illustrates the general relations among spatial and temporal δ18O–surface temperature slopes. The USE is applied to the Antarctica temperature change during the last deglaciation in model simulations and observations. It is shown that the comparable Antarctica-mean spatial slope with deglacial temporal slope in δ18O–surface temperature reconstruction is caused, accidentally, by the compensation responses between the δ18O–inversion layer temperature relation and the inversion layer temperature itself. Furthermore, in light of the USE, we propose that the present seasonal slope of δ18O–inversion layer temperature is an optimal paleothermometer that is more accurate and robust than the spatial slope. This optimal slope suggests the possibility of reconstructing past Antarctic temperature changes using present and future instrumental observations. Significance Statement This paper develops a new framework called the unified slope equations (USE) to provide, for the first time, a general relation among various spatial and temporal water isotope–temperature slopes. The application of the USE to Antarctic deglacial temperature change shows that the optimal paleothermometer is the seasonal slope of the inversion layer temperature.

Spatial Fingerprint of Younger Dryas Cooling and Warming in Eastern North America

AbstractThe Younger Dryas (YD, 12.9–11.7 ka) is the most recent, near‐global interval of abrupt climate change with rates similar to modern global warming. Understanding the causes and biodiversity effects of YD climate changes requires determining the spatial fingerprints of past temperature changes. Here we build pollen‐based and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether‐based temperature reconstructions in eastern North America (ENA) to better understand deglacial temperature evolution. YD cooling was pronounced in the northeastern United States and muted in the north central United States. Florida sites warmed during the YD, while other southeastern sites maintained a relatively stable climate. This fingerprint is consistent with an intensified subtropical high during the YD and demonstrates that interhemispheric responses were more complex spatially in ENA than predicted by the bipolar seesaw model. Reduced‐amplitude or antiphased millennial‐scale temperature variability in the southeastern United States may support regional hotspots of biodiversity and endemism.

Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region

Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18–8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a previously published brGDGT record from Silver Lake, Ohio, using improved chromatographic methods. All pollen- and brGDGT-based temperature reconstructions showed qualitatively similar deglacial trends but varying magnitudes. Separating 5- and 6- methyl brGDGTs resulted in substantially lower estimates of deglacial temperature variations (6.4 °C) than inferred from earlier brGDGT methods and pollen (11.8 °C, 12.0 °C respectively). Similar trends among proxies suggest good fidelity of brGDGTs to temperature, despite calibration uncertainties. At both sites, the rise and decline of no-analog communities closely track brGDGT-inferred temperatures, with a lag of 0–150 years. The timing of temperature and ecological events varies between Bonnet and Silver Lakes, likely due to age model uncertainties. Climate sensitivity analyses indicate a linear sensitivity of vegetation composition to temperature variations, albeit noisy and significant only with a 500-year bin. The formation of no-analog plant communities in the upper Midwest is closely linked to late-glacial warming, but other factors, such as temperature seasonality or end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, remain viable.

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300–500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

Summer temperature evolution on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russian Far East, during the past 20 000 years

Abstract. Little is known about the climate evolution on the Kamchatka Peninsula during the last glacial–interglacial transition as existing climate records do not reach beyond 12 ka BP. In this study, a summer temperature record for the past 20 kyr is presented. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, terrigenous biomarkers suitable for continental air temperature reconstructions, were analyzed in a sediment core from the western continental margin off Kamchatka in the marginal northwest Pacific (NW Pacific). The record suggests that summer temperatures on Kamchatka during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) equaled modern temperatures. We suggest that strong southerly winds associated with a pronounced North Pacific High pressure system over the subarctic NW Pacific accounted for the warm conditions. A comparison with an Earth system model reveals discrepancies between model and proxy-based reconstructions for the LGM temperature and atmospheric circulation in the NW Pacific realm. The deglacial temperature development is characterized by abrupt millennial-scale temperature oscillations. The Bølling–Allerød warm phase and the Younger Dryas cold spell are pronounced events, suggesting a connection to North Atlantic climate variability.

Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth's climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO2 This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes' sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was [Formula: see text]C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.

Florida Straits deglacial temperature and salinity change: Implications for tropical hydrologic cycle variability during the Younger Dryas

The prevailing paradigm of abrupt climate change holds that rapid shifts associated with the most extreme climate swings of the last glacial cycle were forced by changes in the strength and northward extension of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in an abrupt reorganization of atmospheric circulation patterns with global teleconnections. To determine the timing of tropical Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes over the past 21 ka BP, we reconstruct high resolution sea surface temperature and δ18OSW (a proxy for surface salinity) records based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotope measurements in the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from a sediment core located on the western margin of the Florida Straits. As a proxy for meltwater discharge influence on Florida Straits surface water salinity, we also measured Ba/Ca ratios in G. ruber from the same core. Results show that riverine influence on Florida Straits surface water started by 17.2 ka BP and ended by 13.6 ka BP, 600 years before the start of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval. The initiation of the YD is marked by an abrupt increase in Florida Straits δ18OSW values, indicating a shift to elevated sea surface salinity occurring in 130 years, most likely resulting from increased regional aridity and/or reduced precipitation. In order to resolve the timing of tropical atmospheric circulation change relative to AMOC variability across this transition, we compare the timing of surface water changes to a recently published record of Florida Current variability in the same core reconstructed from benthic oxygen isotope measurements. We find synchronous changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation on the transition into the YD, consistent with an abrupt reduction in AMOC as the driver of tropical Atlantic atmospheric circulation change at this time.

Modulation of the bipolar seesaw in the Southeast Pacific during Termination 1

The termination of the last ice age (Termination 1; T1) is crucial for our understanding of global climate change and for the validation of climate models. There are still a number of open questions regarding for example the exact timing and the mechanisms involved in the initiation of deglaciation and the subsequent interhemispheric pattern of the warming. Our study is based on a well-dated and high-resolution alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) record from the SE-Pacific off southern Chile (Ocean Drilling Project Site 1233) showing that deglacial warming at the northern margin of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current system (ACC) began shortly after 19,000 years BP (19 kyr BP). The timing is largely consistent with Antarctic ice-core records but the initial warming in the SE-Pacific is more abrupt suggesting a direct and immediate response to the slowdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation through the bipolar seesaw mechanism. This response requires a rapid transfer of the Atlantic signal to the SE-Pacific without involving the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean that may contribute to the substantially more gradual deglacial temperature rise seen in Antarctic ice-cores. A very plausible mechanism for this rapid transfer is a seesaw-induced change of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system of the ACC and the southern westerly wind belt. In addition, modelling results suggest that insolation changes and the deglacial CO 2 rise induced a substantial SST increase at our site location but with a gradual warming structure. The similarity of the two-step rise in our proxy SSTs and CO 2 over T1 strongly demands for a forcing mechanism influencing both, temperature and CO 2. As SSTs at our coring site are particularly sensitive to latitudinal shifts of the ACC/southern westerly wind belt system, we conclude that such latitudinal shifts may substantially affect the upwelling of deepwater masses in the Southern Ocean and thus the release of CO 2 to the atmosphere as suggested by the conceptual model of [Toggweiler, J.R., Rusell, J.L., Carson, S.R., 2006. Midlatitude westerlies, atmospheric CO 2, and climate change during ice ages. Paleoceanography 21. doi:10.1029/2005PA001154].

Late Pleistocene-Holocene Paleoceanography and Ventilation of the Gulf of California

Sediment cores collected in 1990 from the Gulf of California have been studied using stable isotope and radiocarbon techniques to reconstruct the climate and ventilation histories since the last glacial maximum. Benthic foraminiferal δ18O from core tops in a water depth range of 145 to 1442 m increases by about 2% with increasing depth. This is consistent with a composite temperature profile constructed from several hydrocasts in the various gulf basins. However, the δ18O water/salinity relationship is not sufficiently linear in gulf locations or in nearby open Pacific Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (GEOSECS) stations to be useful in solving paleotemperature equations. Of the most common benthic foraminifera, only Planulina ariminensis has δ13C that is consistent with the measured δ13C of ΣCO2. Several cores in the depth range 500 to 900 m have the laminated Holocene and Bolling/Allerod sediments, and the nonlaminated glacial age and Younger Dryas sediments that are typical of the gulf and other locations such as Santa Barbara Basin. The best of those, Jumbo Piston Core (JPC) 56 from 818 m water depth on the western margin of Guaymas Basin, was sampled for intensive study. Oxygen isotope ratios in benthic and planktonic foraminifera show little evidence for deglacial temperature oscillations. Carbon isotope ratios are generally lower during warm epochs, but the most striking result is strongly lowered benthic and planktonic δ13C about 9500 years ago. This may reflect water column oxidation of locally released methane. Neither benthic δ13C in depth section nor paired benthic and planktonic 14C data in JPC56 are consistent with increased intermediate water ventilation during the glacial maximum and Younger Dryas. Likewise, 14C data from 5 pairs of foraminifera from the Okhotsk Sea fail to support better ventilation in that basin during the last glacial maximum.

Water Fern ( Azolla filiculoides Lam.) in Southern Chile as an Index of Paleoenvironment during Early Deglaciation

In late glacial deposits in the Chilotan Archipelago (42°30′S), remains of water fern (Azolla filiculoides Lam.), a plant of temperate-tropical America, are an apparent added indication of the paleoenvironment of deglaciation following the last glacial maximum in southern Chile. The last glacial maximum was reached in the archipelago between about 14,800 and 13,900 14C yr BP. In conjunction with a diversification of arboreal plant species, as shown by the fossil pollen record, the presence of Azolla further reflects an abrupt, early deglacial temperature rise. This evidence of temperature increase estimated to be in the order of 6°C is compatible with the implication from the fossil beetle fauna of warming concomitant with a major transformation of plant communities. Full-glacial Subantarctic Parkland in the latitude of the Chilotan Archipelago was replaced by late glacial Transition Woodland and ultimately by North Patagonian Evergreen Forest. Azolla in the late glacial record dates from the time of earl...

Annual cycles of [formula omitted] in coral skeletons and [formula omitted] thermometry

We have discovered annual variations in the 238U 40Ca ratio of Porites coral skeletons. Measurements were made using thermal ionization mass spectrometric techniques, yielding precisions of ±2ℵ. (2σ) for 238U 40Ca and ±l‰ (2σ) for 88Sr 40Ca . Coralline aragonite subsamples weighed ∼2 mg, enabling submillimeter sampling resolution corresponding to ∼monthly temporal resolution. The annual nature of the cycles was confirmed by comparison with annual banding observable in X-radiographs. For two modern and one fossil sample, the amplitude of the U Ca variation ranges from 6 to 23%, well outside of analytical error. As annual U Ca cycles appear to be a general feature of primary coralline aragonite, the preservation of such features will be important in identifying unaltered coral for U-series dating studies. U Ca variations mimic and are in phase with annual variations in 88 Sr 40 Ca . For a given fractional shift in Sr Ca , the fractional shift in U Ca is about 6 times larger. For the two modern corals, 238U 40Ca is strongly anticorrelated with measured temperature, suggesting that 238U 40Ca has potential as a paleothermometer. If temperature is the only significant control on coralline 238U 40Ca , we reach the following conclusions from analyses of fossil samples: a Vanuatu sample, which grew halfway through the last deglaciation, gives U Ca temperatures 4 to 5°C below modern values. U Ca thermometry applied to published data for Barbados corals indicates that (1) temperature generally correlates with sea level, (2) glacial temperatures (stages 2 and 4) were 4 to 6°C lower than interglacial temperatures (stages 7a, 5e, and 1), and (3) temperatures rose from glacial to interglacial values early in the last deglaciation. Thermometry applied to Papua New Guinea corals indicates that (1) temperatures were 5 to 6°C lower than interglacial temperatures from ∼13 to ∼10 Ky bp, then rose to present values ∼9 Ky bp, (2) the temperature depression between ∼13 and ∼10 Ky bp is consistent with low temperatures observed in Vanuatu during the same time interval, and (3) the Papua New Guinea deglacial temperature history differs from that of Barbados. The results generally support estimates of tropical temperatures obtained from Sr Ca thermometry and snow line elevation data, but disagree with those based on foram transfer functions. A thermodynamic model suggests that coralline 238U 40Ca may also be sensitive to marine carbonate ion concentration, raising the possibility that some of the observed glacial-interglacial 238U 40Ca variation may result from glacial-interglacial carbonate ion changes. However, the key experiments that might establish a coralline 238U 40Ca-carbonate ion relationship have yet to be performed.