Background and purposeTo create a library of plans (LoP) for gastric cancer adaptive radiotherapy, accurate predictions of shape changes due to filling variations are essential. The ability of two strategies (personalized and population-based) to predict stomach shape based on filling was evaluated for volunteer and patient data to explore the potential for use in a LoP. Materials and methodsFor 19 healthy volunteers, stomachs were delineated on MRIs with empty (ES), half-full (HFS) and full stomach (FS). For the personalized strategy, a deformation vector field from HFS to corresponding ES was acquired and extrapolated to predict FS. For the population-based strategy, the average deformation vectors from HFS to FS of 18 volunteers were applied to the HFS of the remaining volunteer to predict FS (leave-one-out principle); thus, predictions were made for each volunteer. Reversed processes were performed to predict ES. To validate, for seven gastric cancer patients, the volunteer population-based model was applied to their pre-treatment CT to predict stomach shape on 2–3 repeat CTs. For all predictions, volume was made equal to true stomach volume. ResultsFS predictions were satisfactory, with median Dice similarity coefficient (mDSC) of 0.91 (population-based) and 0.89 (personalized). ES predictions were poorer: mDSC = 0.82 for population-based; personalized strategy yielded unachievable volumes. Population-based shape predictions (both ES and FS) were comparable between patients (mDSC = 0.87) and volunteers (0.88). ConclusionThe population-based model outperformed the personalized model and demonstrated its ability in predicting filling-dependent stomach shape changes and, therefore, its potential for use in a gastric cancer LoP.