Defence Review Research Articles

Ways to Improve the Efficiency of Doctoral Education

The current process of doctoral education, as well as its results, remain the target of severe criticism despite the adoption of a system of measures aimed at improving the quality of dissertation review including ubiquitous plagiarism checks, reduction of the number of defenses of substandard dissertations and a stricter code of practice for dissertation committees. The article identifies potential ways to improve dissertation quality, drawing on an analysis of the dynamics of indicators pertaining to the training of contemporary Russian doctoral students and the activity of their academic supervisors. The authors give special consideration to justified recommendations concerning the following issues: improvement of the quality of doctoral student body; increase in scholarship provision in conjunction with the creation of financial incentives for dissertation completion and defense; development of mechanisms to improve the performance of academic supervisors; refinement of the procedure of dissertation results examination in each of three interconnected stages: student performance review, dissertation defense and dissertation review by the expert board of the State Commissions for Academic Degrees and Titles.

Future Tasks: Threats and Missions for SOF

Forecasting is an inexact art at best. This article outlines a framework for forecasting SOF futures based on one originally used in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review to map capabilities against threats. It also employs intersecting lines of inquiry, beginning with the American SOF “corporate view” of the future. The forecast distills a number of public and private sector futures assessments into three “mega-trends,” derived from analysis of over a dozen public and private sector futures assessments, and then produces a SOF “market forecast” based on the implications of current and emerging technologies. The market forecast suggests decision makers may be forced into reconsidering the nature of SOF organizations as well as the SOF Truths in order for SOF to retain a unique or “special” value in the future. This forecast concludes by outlining four future possible vectors, or alternative futures scenarios, in which emerging technologies might impact future missions to inform and spur additional thought and discussion among SOF force developers and employers.

Missile Defense Review 2019: New Features and Approaches

Missile Defense Review 2019 (MDR) was released after almost a year of delay. The article delivers analysis of origin and significance of main MDR features. The Review is one of main documents on military policy of D. Trump administration. The article consists of five parts. The first part is about missile threat assessment. Future trends of missile defense architecture development can be detected in a way how missile threats are characterized. The second part is about missile defense architecture. It contains an overview of main new features which was established in missile defense strategy and architecture. Analysis of origin of these changes is also given. The third part contains a characterization of missile defense research & development, testing and acquisition approach presented in MDR. The fourth part is about missile defense cooperation between the U.S. and their allies in various regions. The final part of the article contains findings regarding possible consequences of MDR for strategic stability and regional security matters. MDR confirms several features which are fundamentally new for U.S. missile defense strategy and doctrine (for example, “left of launch” operations). These missile defense programs and concepts have been developed during first years of D. Trump presidency. MDR addresses not only ballistic missile threats but also hypersonic and cruise missile threats for the U.S. homeland, deployed forces and allies. Almost each part of MDR has new features which can influence U.S. missile defense development. Trump administration approach to missile defense development and deployment could have profound effect both on strategic stability and security environment in various regions.

A szlovák Gyorscsoport Załuż környéki harcai

In an earlier issue of Defense Review, an analysis of the first deployment of the Slovak Rapid Division has already been published by the author, and the current article recounts the successful engagements in the area around Zaluz. It is a rare opportunity to read in Hungarian about the activities of the Slovak State fighting as an ally of the Third Reich during World War II, and this study gives the Hungarian readers fundamentally new knowledge, and provides new information in the field of military history. Valuable military professional conclusions can be drawn from the data presented in the analysis and from the circumstances described, which can be well utilized in the Hungarian military officer training.

Current State of the Russian and US Nuclear Weapons Policies

This article is devoted to the analysis of interaction of the nuclear policy of Russia and the United States in the context of a crisis in bilateral relations, the collapse of the arms control system and the undermining of global strategic stability. First, the authors examine the current state of US-Russian relations in the sphere of arms control. As a result of the US withdrawing from the ABM Treaty, the INF Treaty, and the dim prospects of extending the New START, the authors conclude that the arms control and strategic stability system that was being put together over the course of four decades is in a deep crisis. Second, the authors examine the U.S. nuclear policy and Washington’s efforts to build up and modernize its nuclear capabilities. The 2018 Nuclear Policy Review points to the United States moving away from the principle of no first use of nuclear weapons, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use and the desire to maintain options to end conflicts at any stage on terms favorable to the U.S. without a significant risk of starting a general nuclear war. In addition, the authors describe plans of the U.S. military to modernize the nuclear triad. When analyzing the 2019 Missile Defense Review, it is noted that the U.S. desire to ensure its absolute invulnerability to any missile threats, “left of launch” measures to provide missile defense before missile are launched by the enemy, and the integration of defensive and offensive capabilities of missile defense systems confirm the fears of Russia and other countries regarding maintaining their capabilities to conduct a nuclear retaliatory strike. Then the Russian nuclear doctrine is analyzed. The authors reject Western accusations that Russia has the concept of “escalate to de-escalate”, describe the conditions for Russia’s first nuclear use and the specifics of the “retaliatory counterstrike” concept, and also cite Russia's main concerns regarding threats from the US nuclear doctrine and nuclear modernization. We are also talking about the development of new nuclear weapons systems, such as hypersonic weapons, unmanned vehicles and cruise missiles. In conclusion, it is said that the U.S. doesn’t intend to try to maintain strategic stability any longer, Washington’s nuclear strategy has features that are dangerous to international security, which he blames Russia and that Russian fears regarding US nuclear policy are all but legitimate.

PROJEKTOWANIE PROCESU ZARZĄDZANIA BEZPIECZEŃSTWEM PAŃSTWA: PRZYKŁAD ROZWIĄZAŃ W PRZYPADKU POLSKI

The process of national security management must take into account each state’s interests in order to meet the expectations, needs and aspirations of the whole nation. In the initial conceptual and decision-making stage, this process includes ideological and doctrinal-level thinking as well as considerations at the program and operational levels. The following implementation stage covers the initiation of concrete security measures. This process must be flexible and take into account all changes taking place in the external environment of the state, as well as all transformations occurring within the security system, in order to create an effective and long-term security policy. An efficient organization of national security management requires a broad interdisciplinary approach taking into account executive issues, as well as decisions made at the central – ministerial level. In Poland, there are two mechanisms to derive national security strategies, adjudicate their results, and then adapt to evolving conditions and needs. These mechanisms are the state defense strategy verified by Strategic Defence Review process and national security system verified by the Strategic National Security Review. This article will summarize these two processes to include recent changes based on the evolving international security arena.

A Very British National Security State: Formal and informal institutions in the design of UK security policy

What are the roles of government institutions in the design and implementation of effective national security policy? Using the case of post-2010 reform to Britain’s central government security policy machinery, we find that formal institutions can help the informal strategy-making institutions on their periphery to function better. Through interviews with 25 senior officials, we find that Britain’s National Security Council and quinquennial Strategic Defence and Security Reviews – both instituted in 2010 with the intention of improving UK security policymaking – remain limited as formal makers of national strategy. But the networks of individuals and ideas they support, by absolving some decision-makers of audience costs while immersing others in creative yet coherent strategy-development communities, have improved the overall quality of UK security policymaking compared to its pre-2010 condition. This finding also carries implications for other contexts and thus represents a promising avenue for future research. (Final version accepted 20 June 2018.)

Tradeoffs in defense strategic planning: lessons from the U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review

ABSTRACT Defense ministries conduct strategic planning in various ways. In this article I outline tradeoffs in the design of strategic planning processes, and consider the implications of these tradeoffs for choices about the conduct of defense planning in different circumstances. Whereas an inclusive and transparent planning process is well-suited to building internal and external buy-in for a defense strategy, a more exclusive and opaque process is more likely to generate a defense strategy that departs from the status quo and speaks candidly about key challenges. The design of a defense planning process should therefore be informed by certain features of its context, such as whether the international security environment is stable or in flux and whether the defense ministry enjoys or lacks strong political support. I base the article’s findings on an in-depth analysis of the U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review, which served for nearly two decades as the major strategy process of the U.S. Department of Defense. This analysis draws on interviews I conducted of 23 defense officials and experts, as well as primary and secondary sources. More generally, my findings highlight for scholars and practitioners the importance of understanding how planning processes can shape defense and national security policies.

South African defence policy: the rationale and impact of the SANDF’s primary role and conventional force design

The 2015 South African Defence Review set out to reverse the deterioration of South African National Defence Force (SANDF) capabilities. Within the South African Department of Defence (DOD) this deterioration is expressed mainly in terms of a decreasing defence budget, subsequent declining conventional capabilities and obsolete prime mission equipment. Contemporary research and defence expert debates on this theme, point out the disjuncture between policy ends and the available means, with scepticism for an increased defence budget given the DOD’s lack of internal reform and strategy adjustment. One question that remains largely unanswered in the literature regarding the decline of the SANDF, is why both the policy-makers and the SANDF have remained focused on the primary role of the military (defending territorial integrity) accompanied with an unaffordable conventional force design? This question relates to the aim of this paper and is explored by revisiting initial defence policy decisions and compromises that were made in the 1990s. It is argued that the primary role of the SANDF and its conventional force design suited the interests of both the politicians and the military, but that the drawbacks thereof have harshly caught up with the DOD.

The flawed promise of National Security Risk Assessment: nine lessons from the British approach

Since 2010, quinquennial UK National Security Strategies – and the Strategic Defence and Security Reviews that follow – have been based on a public National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA). The purpose of the NSRA is to identify and prioritize UK security risks for the coming five-yearly cycle based on their likelihood and impact. This article recognizes that trading off severity against likelihood is a valuable strategic heuristic. Yet it concludes that until the NSRA can address nine key limitations, it will remain a flawed exercise. Such findings carry implications for UK policy, and for other states operating NSRA-style risk matrices.

ENSURING THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF GREAT BRITAIN FROM D. CAMERON TO T. MAY: STRATEGIES AND REALITIES

In recent years, ensuring the national security of the UK has become an urgent and challenging task. This article aims to analyze the main goals in the sphere of national security, which were outlined in British strategic documents - in particular, the National Security Strategies of 2010 and 2015, and the accompanying strategic defense and security reviews. The author examines the methods used to achieve these goals, and the actual accomplishments in the security sector. In addition to scientific literature, the article studies recent official government documents in the sphere of national security and defense, as well as relevant materials of leading British “think tanks” and British media. The author enquires into practical results that have been achieved by the D. Cameron government in the main areas of national security: anti-terrorism efforts, resolution of armed conflicts and instability abroad, and fighting cyberterrorism. In view of the results of the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union, UK has found itself entangled in an entirely different paradigm of relations with the EU, while trying to resolve its own internal political problems. Therefore, matters of international, as well as national, security have slid by the wayside. At the same time, British government maintains continuity of the national security policy in terms of responding to significant threats. Under T. May, the danger of terrorism, threatening Europe and the entire world, has become a matter of urgency for UK. Consequently, the May government will most likely be forced to change its course of action, and perhaps rewrite the whole strategy of ensuring national security, as well as adopt a number of unpopular, harsh measures. In the period between 2015 and 2020, terrorism, international military conflicts, pandemics and natural risks remain the first level risks for Great Britain. Long term, geopolitical and economic changes on the global scale are expected to be the prevailing risk factors. Climate change is also gaining significance and starting from 2035 it is predicted to have the greatest impact on national security.

Концептуальные основы развития ПРО США во время президентства Д. Трампа

Концептуальные основы развития ПРО США во время президентства Д. Трампа

An uncertain future: South Africa’s national defence force caught between foreign-policy ambitions and domestic development

ABSTRACTIn June 2015, the South African Parliament passed the long-awaited defence review (DR2015). The aim of the review was to stop the decline of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) and to create an economical and sustainable force structure capable of continuing to fulfil its constitutional obligations and to support the country’s foreign policy, primarily in relation to Africa. However, implementation of the DR2015 has turned out to be difficult. The major claim of this article is that the processes of demilitarisation and transition since the end of apartheid, combined with years of underfunding and the lack of a priority given to the SANDF has reduced the latter’s professional military capabilities to such an extent that in the future it will find it difficult to function in the active international role it has played since the end of the 1990s. The reduced role of the SANDF is also an illustration of South Africa in general prioritising domestic developmental and security challenges, as well as its footstep in Africa. The study is based on extensive empirical data collection in South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo in the form of a string of semi-structured qualitative interviews, primary documentary research and an extensive academic literature review conducted from 2000 to 2017.

A Review of Defense Against Slow HTTP Attack

Every web server poses a risk to network security threats. One of them is a threat of Slow HTTP Attack. Slow HTTP Attack exploits the working methods of the HTTP protocol, where it requires that every request from the client be fully accepted by the server before it is processed. If the HTTP request is incomplete, or if the transfer rate is very low, the server remains busy waiting for the rest of the data. If the server is storing too many busy resources, there is a denial of service. Internet users can exploit such vulnerabilities, send incomplete data packets deliberately and requests repeatedly. When a web server is in a public network or the Internet, then protecting computer and network security is an important issue. After identifying and analyzing how the Slow HTTP attack works, as well as its attack detection, this paper describes portfolio of the work system , how to detect and how to defence against the Slow HTTP attack. Keywords— Slow HTTP Attack, Web Server Exploit, Denial of Service, DoS

The South African Defence Review (2012) and Private Military / Security Companies (PMSCs): Heralding a Shift from Prohibition to Regulation?

This article discusses the possibility of South Africa enacting a new law regulating private military/security companies (PMSCs) beyond the Prohibition of Mercenary Activities and Regulation of Certain Activities in Country of Armed Conflict Act of 2006. It argues that such a possibility arises from the policy direction expressed in the Defence Review of 2012, and the recent developments at the international level, which indicate a shift towards accommodation of PMSCs as legitimate players in the security sector. The article surveys the current state of national and international law relating to PMSCs and illustrates how the emerging shift from prohibition to regulation has affirmed the need for legislative intervention in this field. It concludes that since the future is on the side of regulation and not prohibition, legislation that furthers the policy agenda envisioned by the Defence Review 2012 may be the best tool to unlock the inhibitions of the past and create a viable climate for reframing the debate on domestic law governing private militarism in South Africa.

VARNOST KOT IMPERATIV

In 2017, the publication Contemporary Military Challenges entered its nineteenth year of existence, which reminds us of an important anniversary coming up in 2018. The first issue was published in September 1999 under the name of Bulletin of the Slovenian Armed Forces. From then until the end of last year, 18 volumes of the publication included 438 articles by 564 authors. There were 289 authors from the Slovenian Armed Forces and 48 authors from the administrative part of the Ministry of Defence; 161 authors were from different institutions and 66 authors from abroad. This year, we will focus on topical issues, which will, hopefully, be of interest to our readers and will motivate you to open discussions, reflect upon and perhaps even write about your views on the emergence of new security as an imperative for the future. This year's second issue titled Veteran organizations – are they even needed will be released in English. Since this topic has never before been discussed in our publication, it is perhaps time that we speak about it and share experiences of different countries. This year’s third issue titled Migrations and security on the Old Continent will also be published in English. It will be dedicated to the unstable Middle East, terrorism in Europe and national experiences with migration. Special focus will be put on the migration flows from autumn 2015 to spring 2016 as well as to the Europe's response to them. The title of the fourth issue will be Security forces of the future. It will focus on the way forward in ensuring safety. Some of the topical issues will certainly include the new old ways of manning the armed forces, achieving capability targets and international operations and missions. This year also marks 20 years since members of the Slovenian Armed Forces have joined an international operation for the first time. It was Operation Alba in Albania. Since then, they have participated in numerous operations and missions throughout the world. The 2017 will undoubtedly also be marked by the findings of the 2016 Strategic Defence Review, and the tasks arising from it. The chapter referring to the strengthening of the defence capability and resilience defines the primary objective of further development of the defence system and defence capacity of the Republic of Slovenia, which arises from the findings of the strategic review. The authors of the document classified them as follows: provision of the country’s defence capabilities, enhancing the resilience of the state and society to security threats, improving the preparedness and sustainability of the Slovenian Armed Forces, and achieving of common goals and commitments in the framework of the EU and NATO. It is our firm belief that the articles in this issue of the Contemporary Military Challenges titled Security as an imperative can contribute to the goals set out in the Strategic Defence Review. Defence planning – vital policy instrument in supporting a nation's defence needs is the title of the article written by Pavel Vuk. In the final part of the article, the author writes that the main question of the politics when discussing future defence needs of a county from the perspective of limited economic ability should always focus on defence planning. It should primarily attempt to find the answer to the fundamental question of whether the proposed plan will offer adequate answers to the future national defence needs.

SECURITY AS AN IMPERATIVE

In 2017, the publication Contemporary Military Challenges entered its nineteenth year of existence, which reminds us of an important anniversary coming up in 2018. The first issue was published in September 1999 under the name of Bulletin of the Slovenian Armed Forces. From then until the end of last year, 18 volumes of the publication included 438 articles by 564 authors. There were 289 authors from the Slovenian Armed Forces and 48 authors from the administrative part of the Ministry of Defence; 161 authors were from different institutions and 66 authors from abroad. This year, we will focus on topical issues, which will, hopefully, be of interest to our readers and will motivate you to open discussions, reflect upon and perhaps even write about your views on the emergence of new security as an imperative for the future. This year's second issue titled Veteran organizations – are they even needed will be released in English. Since this topic has never before been discussed in our publication, it is perhaps time that we speak about it and share experiences of different countries. This year’s third issue titled Migrations and security on the Old Continent will also be published in English. It will be dedicated to the unstable Middle East, terrorism in Europe and national experiences with migration. Special focus will be put on the migration flows from autumn 2015 to spring 2016 as well as to the Europe's response to them. The title of the fourth issue will be Security forces of the future. It will focus on the way forward in ensuring safety. Some of the topical issues will certainly include the new old ways of manning the armed forces, achieving capability targets and international operations and missions. This year also marks 20 years since members of the Slovenian Armed Forces have joined an international operation for the first time. It was Operation Alba in Albania. Since then, they have participated in numerous operations and missions throughout the world. The 2017 will undoubtedly also be marked by the findings of the 2016 Strategic Defence Review, and the tasks arising from it. The chapter referring to the strengthening of the defence capability and resilience defines the primary objective of further development of the defence system and defence capacity of the Republic of Slovenia, which arises from the findings of the strategic review. The authors of the document classified them as follows: provision of the country’s defence capabilities, enhancing the resilience of the state and society to security threats, improving the preparedness and sustainability of the Slovenian Armed Forces, and achieving of common goals and commitments in the framework of the EU and NATO. It is our firm belief that the articles in this issue of the Contemporary Military Challenges titled Security as an imperative can contribute to the goals set out in the Strategic Defence Review.

The British Army in Transition

In this article, Peter Antill and Jeremy Smith analyse the new Strike Brigade concept and what it might mean for defence acquisition and the logistic support to future operations, while highlighting the questions still surrounding the outcome of the latest Strategic Defence and Security Review.

Forty years’ personal experience

This article reflects a journalist’s personal experience of reporting on the UK military, analysing the relationship between senior military figures and the Ministry of Defence (their political masters) and the media. Topics covered include manipulation of the media and the popularity of the armed forces, as well as unpopular, ill-planned, military operations, notably Iraq and Afghanistan. The author also examines other operations, notably the wars in the Falklands and Kosovo, the 1991 Gulf War and the Scott Arms-to-Iraq Inquiry. The article goes on to explore leaks by frustrated military; tensions between military commanders and ministers; the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review; military chiefs not speaking truth to power; ministers jealous of the military’s close relations with journalists; and the Defence Advisory Notice Committee. The author reveals how official secrecy is honoured more in the breach than in its observance, especially concerning the special forces.

Development in Adversity: South Africa’s Defence Industrial Participation in Perspective

Defence industrial participation (DIP) is a form of countertrade and falls in the sub-category of (defence) offsets. The South African DIP programme played a developmental role in the country’s defence industrial base (DIB), arresting its steady decline since the 1980s. This article discusses the perceived non-achievement of the 1997 DIP objectives and the reality of its manifestations over a 12-year period (2000–2012). It is argued that the DIP tripled the gross national product and improved the economy through the retention of some 58 000 jobs. However, the 2014 Defence Review paves the way for a new defence industrial dispensation. Notwithstanding, there is a need to explore the concomitant ambiguity that exists between perceptions of countertrade and offsets as trade-distorting practices and as value-adding prospects, and to ascertain how this reciprocal trade mechanism could be used better to promote the developmental aims and objectives of governments.