Defence Research Establishment Research Articles

Review of recently reported Ricin detection techniques focusing on combined immunoassay detection with abrin and saxitoxin in human plasma

Increasing non-traditional threats from biological or chemical weapons, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) have tried to perform the preliminary analysis of biotoxin sample to standardize analysis methods and strengthen analytical capabilities among OPCW member countries. With the changes of new analysis, ROK CBRN Defense Research Institute (CDRI) established enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and cytotoxicity analysis methods for ricin, abrin, and saxitoxin through the OPCW exercise on Biotoxin sample analysis. Thus, this study aims to established analytical methods (ELISA and cytotoxicity analysis) for the biological toxins called ricin, abrin and saxitoxin according to recent OPCW Biotoxin detection exercise. In particular, to refine practical and effective methods of biological analysis, we reviewed recent research on scientific analysis of ricin as a potential bioterror weapon, letter with ricin sent in White House, and suggested future agendas for preparedness testing.

U.S. military contract could boost status of Black university

Defense research institute aims to turn Howard into a top research university

Scattering statistics of nonstationary seafloors: Mixture models and choosing the number of components

Modern high resolution synthetic aperture sonars are capable of resolving the structure of patchy seafloors, defined as seafloors having non-stationarygeoacoustic and roughness properties. Within each patch, it is often possible to model the amplitude statistics using commonly used physics based statistical models, such as the K-distribution. However, it is impossible to use on a large scale because either the parameters change from patch to patchor the imaging sonar alters the scattering statistics at different ranges. Here, we propose a method to segment different patches in a sonar image using a mixture of physicallymotivated statistical models. We detail how the number of components can be chosen using Bayesian model selection techniques, such as the deviance information criterion. The tradeoff between model accuracy and robustness is explored using a dataset provided by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

Introducing the Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset (JPED)

The article introduces a new dataset on terrorist attack activity by jihadis in Western Europe. The dataset was built over nearly two decades at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. It records not only attacks that were launched, but also plots that were foiled by counterterrorism. The rationale behind the dataset is that analyses based on launched attacks may misrepresent the scale and nature of terrorism. The article shows that if we were to measure the jihadi threat to Europe by attacks only we would miss out on 58.2% of the total attack activity. We also show that while attack data signify a trend towards small attacks by individuals, these data hide the fact that terror networks persist in plotting big attacks that get foiled. We discuss how analyses based on attacks only may distort comparative analyses of different types of terrorists across countries, as well as causal analyses of terrorism drivers. By including foiled plots we gain a fuller picture of terrorism. The Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset allows the gauging of different aspects of the threat from Al-Qaida and Islamic State in Europe. The dataset documents when and where terror plots occur, whether or not they result in attacks, and different types of information about perpetrators and how they operate. The Dataset offers a reliable overview of jihadi terrorism in Europe for research and policy.

Simulation-Supported Wargaming for Assessing Force Structures

Wargaming is a key activity for gaining deeper insight into the strengths and weaknesses of future force structures in the course of their development and assessment. For more than a decade, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt – FFI) has supported the Norwegian Army in conducting wargames for capability planning, with varying degrees of computer-based support. Throughout this period, these have evolved from what can be described as computer-assisted wargames to more realistic simulation-supported wargames. Moreover, to get a closer understanding of the deterrent effect of the force structures, which may not be observable during the actual gameplay, our emphasis has also shifted towards replicating the planning process more properly – and especially towards monitoring the planning process of the opposing force. For example, it has been important to examine the extent to which specific structure elements discourage the opposing force from taking certain actions. In this article, we describe our evolved methodology for simulation-supported wargaming, which includes a preparation phase; an execution phase, including a joint operational planning process; and an analysis phase. Furthermore, we discuss what type of data and results we are able to extract from the wargaming sessions, and present a set of what we have found to be best practices for how to conduct successful simulation-supported wargames.

Wargaming Dos and Don’ts – Eight Lessons for Planning and Conducting Wargames

Since 2015, there has been a resurgence in the use of wargaming in NATO states. But countries with smaller wargaming communities have not seen a corresponding revitalization of the technique. If the interest is there, the capability often lacks. The paper argues that a critical first step in stimulating the role of wargaming in these countries is ensuring that local practitioners know of each other, so they can exchange experiences on gaming results and practices; further, they need an understanding of what wargaming might (and might not) be, and the steps necessary to make the technique work in practice. The paper offers experiences from wargames conducted by analysts and researchers at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), for the most part games on the strategic and operational level. The experiences are structured as eight broad lessons on “dos and don’ts” to consider when planning and running wargames, based on recurring practical issues in past games. While the lessons are drawn from experiences within a small wargaming community, many of the issues discussed are universal for wargaming at large.

The Use and Misuse of Wargames

Since 2015, there has been a resurgence in the use of wargaming in NATO states. But countries with smaller wargaming communities have not seen a corresponding revitalization of the technique. If the interest is there, the capability often lacks. The paper argues that a critical first step in stimulating the role of wargaming in these countries is ensuring that local practitioners know of each other, so they can exchange experiences on gaming results and practices; further, they need an understanding of what wargaming might (and might not) be, and the steps necessary to make the technique work in practice. The paper offers experiences from wargames conducted by analysts and researchers at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), for the most part games on the strategic and operational level. The experiences are structured as eight broad lessons on “dos and don’ts” to consider when planning and running wargames, based on recurring practical issues in past games. While the lessons are drawn from experiences within a small wargaming community, many of the issues discussed are universal for wargaming at large.

Analysis of Text Mining Keyword Issues for Defense Drone on Social Network

Research on weapon systems has been conducted, and defense drones have been developed. However, few analyses that identify the needs of the general public have been conducted. The purpose of this study is to analyze the issues of interest in social networks regarding defense drones and extract keywords for activation. In this study, big data analysis tools such as Textom, Ucinet6, and NetDraw were used. The results of the keyword frequency analysis, centrality analysis, and CONCOR analysis showed that public information regarding social networks expressed keywords in defense drones, such as Defense Daily, News, Enterprise, Defense Science Research Institute, University, Hydrogen Battery, Army, Air Force, Urban Transportation, Fire, Regional, Enterprise, and Research. It is necessary to revitalize media publicity in developing cooperative technologies by companies, universities, the National Defense Research Institute, urban transportation, and firefighting, using army and air force drones, and developing future hydrogen batteries. In addition, issues of interest were observed for contents, such as applications in the United States, Israel, North Korea, Iran, and Afghanistan, and fostering university education. There is a need to present a case for the actual military use of defense drones and train the department of defense drones at universities.

Modeling the effects of internal waves on synthetic aperture sonar resolution

Synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) beamforming is performed under the assumption of a constant sound speed within the water column or by utilizing a measured sound speed profile. Water column features, such as internal waves or internal wave boluses that cause a sound speed structure different than that assumed, can break the constant sound speed assumption resulting in image defocusing and loss of resolution. The resultant loss of resolution can be quantified using the point spread function (PSF). An ellipse fitting technique was applied to SAS images collected by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) using the HISAS system. In conjunction with the analysis conducted on real data, a ray tracing method was applied to model the broadening effects on the PSF for sound speed differences caused by internal wave boluses. A wavenumber beamforming algorithm was also applied to artificial echo data, in which sound speed errors were introduced. It is hoped that the two models can be used in conjunction with SAS data to determine the sound speed within an internal wave feature from the observed loss in resolution.

Resolution dependence of acoustic scattering statistics for complex seafloors

Underwater Unmanned Vehicles (UUVs) utilize sonar perception to conduct sea floor mapping and target detection operations. However, cooperative surveys with multiple types of UUVs are difficult because platforms with different resolutions may generate different probability density functions (PDFs) of the magnitude of the complex pressure. An area of research that has not been adequately studied is the effects of resolution manipulation during the post-processing of high-resolution data from complex seafloor environments. This work analyzes synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) data collected from multiple seafloor geomorphologies surrounding Bergen, Norway to study the resolution dependence of scattering statistics for complex seafloors. Multi-look methods will be applied to reduce the resolution. The original data and reduced resolution data will be compared in terms of PDF amplitude and evaluated by standard goodness of fit tests with heavily tailed statistical models that are commonly used in the radar and sonar community, including mixture models. The goal of the paper is to provide a bridge to combining high-resolution and low-resolution sonar data together to enhance sonar perception. Data provided by the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment. [Funding provided by the Office of Naval Research.]

Sweden and Swedish Defence – Introduction to the Special Issue

ABSTRACT This article provides the context for the articles in this Special Issue on Sweden and its defence. The article starts with Sweden before presenting Swedish defence, its economy, the military threats, the defence industry, the personnel and the guiding principles of defence. Swedish principles for governance of the public agencies in general and within the defence sector in particular are described. A presentation of the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and its defence economic activities is also provided.

Emergence and expansion of highly infectious spike protein D614G mutant SARS-CoV-2 in central India

COVID-19 has emerged as global pandemic with largest damage to the public health, economy and human psyche.The genome sequence data obtained during the ongoing pandemic are valuable to understand the virus evolutionary patterns and spread across the globe. Increased availability of genome information of circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains in India will enable the scientific community to understand the emergence of new variants and their impact on human health. The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Chambal region of Madhya Pradesh state in mid of March 2020 followed by multiple introduction events and expansion of cases within next three months. More than 5000 COVID-19 suspected samples referred to Defence Research and Development Establishment, Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh were analyzed during the nation -wide lockdown and unlock period. A total of 136 cases were found positive over a span of three months that included virus introduction to the region and its further spread. Whole genome sequences employing Oxford nanopore technology were generated for 26 SARS-CoV-2 circulating in 10 different districts in Madhya Pradesh state of India. This period witnessed index cases with multiple travel histories responsible for introduction of COVID-19 followed by remarkable expansion of virus. The genome wide substitutions including in important viral proteins were identified. The detailed phylogenetic analysis revealed the circulating SARS-CoV-2 clustered in multiple clades including A2a, A4 and B. The cluster-wise segregation was observed, suggesting multiple introduction links and subsequent evolution of virus in the region. This is the first comprehensive whole genome sequence analysis from central India, which revealed the emergence and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during thenation-wide lockdown and unlock.

Behavioural response of mosquito vectors Aedes aegypti, Anopheles stephensi and Culex quinquefasciatus to synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphorus-based slow-release insecticidal paint

BackgroundThe direct toxicological impact of insecticides on vector mosquitoes has been well emphasized; however, behavioural responses such as excito-repellency and physical avoidance as a result of insecticide exposure have not been much studied. We have demonstrated the excito-repellency and behavioural avoidance in certain vector mosquito species on exposure to a slow-release insecticidal paint (SRIP) formulation in addition to direct toxicity.MethodsA SRIP formulation developed by the Defence Research and Development Establishment, Gwalior, contains chlorpyriphos, deltamethrin and pyriproxyfen as active insecticides. Anopheles stephensi, Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were used to study the excito-repellency response of the formulation. The experiments were performed in a specially designed dual-choice exposure and escape chamber made of transparent polymethyl methacrylate. For the experiments, the SRIP formulation was applied undiluted at a rate of 8 m2 per kg on 15 cm2 metallic surfaces. Mosquitoes were introduced into the exposure chamber, and observations of the movement of mosquitoes into the escape chamber through the exit portal were taken at 1-min intervals for up to 30 min.ResultsThe evaluated formulation displayed strong excito-repellency against all three tested vector mosquito species. Results showed that the ET50 (escape time 50%) for Ae. aegypti, An. stephensi and Cx. quinquefasciatus was 20.9 min, 14.5 min and 17.9 min for contact exposure (CE) respectively. Altogether in CE, the escape rates were stronger in An. stephensi mosquitoes at different time intervals compared to Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. The probit analysis revealed that the determined ET did not deviate from linearity for both non-contact exposure (NCE) and placebo exposure (PE) (χ2 ≤ 7.9; p = 1.0) for Ae. aegypti mosquitoes and for NCE (χ2 = 8.3; p = 1.0) and PE (χ2 = 1.7; p = 1.0) treatments in Cx. quinquefasciatus. Mortality (24 h) was found to be statistically higher (F = 6.4; p = 0.02) in An. stephensi for CE but did not vary for NCE (p ≥ 0.3) and PE (p = 0.6) treatments among the tested mosquito species. Survival probability response suggested that all the three tested species displayed similar survival responses for similar exposures (χ2 ≤ 2.3; p ≥ 0.1).ConclusionThe study demonstrates the toxicity and strong behavioural avoidance in known vector mosquito species on exposure to an insecticide-based paint formulation. The combination of insecticides in the present formulation will broaden the overall impact spectrum for protecting users from mosquito bites. The efficacy data generated in the study provide crucial information on the effectiveness of the tested formulation and could be useful in reducing the transmission intensity and disease risk in endemic countries.Graphical

The Swedish Defence Research Establishment (FOA) and the influence of historical knowledge on Swedish civil resistance policy

ABSTRACT Swedish defence research played a significant part in the development of the Swedish Total Defence. This article seeks to modify the bias of previous historical studies of the Swedish National Defence Research Establishment (FOA) that has been focusing on the natural sciences, technology, industrial relationships, and the development of weapons system. The article explores the use of knowledge that is commonly associated with the humanities. More specifically, it examines the use and impact of historical knowledge in relation to the efforts of establishing a Swedish civil resistance policy between the early 1970s and the early 1990s. However, instrumental advice could not be developed based on knowledge about the past. Historical knowledge rather supported conceptual development and learning. It was part of public information campaigns and the education of civil servants. It also addressed central security and defence objectives of the Swedish government. The engagement with civil resistance provided FOA with an additional arena for influencing policy that would potentially concern a large part of the Swedish population.

Paediatric Blood Lead Levels and its Correlation with Anaemia: A Study from Central India

Introduction: Lead is a toxic element used commonly in many products like lead-acid batteries, paints, toys etc. Young children are particularly vulnerable to lead poisoning because of higher absorption capacity in comparison of adults. Safe level of lead exposure has to be established yet. Literature suggests a threshold lead level of 20-40 μg/dL for a decrease in haemoglobin in children. Aim: To assess the correlation between Blood Lead Levels (BLL) and anaemia in children. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a Paediatric Tertiary Care Hospital of Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, India, during the period of May 2019 to September 2020. A 81 children between one to five years of age were included in study. Information was collected regarding general profile of the children and other parameters like socio- economic status (Modified Kuppuswamy scale), history of pica, application of surma, type of toys used, scholastic performance and somatic symptoms. Routine blood investigations were done including Haemoglobin (Hb) and BLL through venous blood sampling. BLL were done at Defense Research and Development Establishment (DRDE) Gwalior. Data entry was done in Microsoft Office Excel 2010 and analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software version 21.0. Chi-square test with Yates correlation was applied and p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Among 81 study subjects, 53 were males and 28 were females. Total 48 (59.2%) children had Hb <11 gm/dL, 42 (51.8%) children had BLL <5 μg/dL and 32 (39.5%) had BLL between 5-10 μg/dL. There were 9% children (n=7) with BLL more than 10 μg/dL and none beyond 15 μg/dL. In the children it was found to have BLL ≥5 μg/dL, 20 children had Hb levels between 7-11 gm/dL whereas 19 had Hb levels above 11 gm/ dL. No statistically significant association was found between the BLL and childhood anaemia. Conclusion: This study did not show any relationship between BLL and Hb in children of age one to five years. Scarcity of diagnostic tools for detecting BLL and lack of public awareness regarding the probable sources of lead and its complications may result in missing the diagnosis.

Rusland som militær stormagt

Russia as a Military Power, edited by Niels Bo Poulsen and Jørgen Staun (Djøf Forlag 2021) is reviewed by Tor Bukkvoll, of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI).

Russiske kjernefysiske styrker

Dr. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard reviews the report Russian Nuclear Forces written by Steinar Høibråten and Halvor Kippe at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

Impulse oscillometry in the diagnosis of respiratory mechanics defects in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Impulse oscillometry (IO) is an innovative method of diagnosing respiratory mechanics. However, there are many unexplored and contentious issues concerning changes in IO parameters, particularly in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of the study was to compare IO with traditional pulmonary functional methods and to study its possibilities for diagnostics of respiratory mechanics disorders in patients with COPD. Methods. A cross-sectional cohort study was carried out, which included patients with COPD (n = 146: 137 (94%) men, 9 (6%) women; average age – 65 ± 9 years) from 2 medical institutions of Moscow – Acad. N.N.Burdenko The Main Military Clinical Hospital, Ministry of Defense and Federal Pulmonology Research Institute, Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia . Patients were divided into 4 groups depending on the severity of COPD according to the criteria of the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD): stage I was diagnosed in 8 patients, stage II – in 43, III – in 54, IV – in 41. The parameters of IO (resistive resistance at an oscillation frequency of 5 Hz ( R rs5 ) and 20 Hz ( R rs20 ), ( R rs5 – R rs20 ), reactive resistance at an oscillation frequency of 5 Hz (Xrs5), area of reaction (A X ), resonance frequency (f res ) are analyzed; spirometry – forced expiratory volume in the 1st second (FEV 1 ), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV 1 /FVC; Body plethysmography (total lung capacity, intrathoracic gas volume, residual volume, total respiratory resistance), lung diffusion capacity. Results. The parameters of IO ( R rs5 , R rs5 – R rs20 , A X , ΔXrs5, and f res ) progressively increased from stage I to stage IV (GOLD) of airway obstruction, while statistically significant changes of R rs20 were not detected. The parameters of the traditional methods of investigation of respiratory mechanics and IO were mainly moderately and strongly correlated. Conclusion IO can be used as an alternative method for assessing respiratory mechanics in COPD.

Worried in Sweden: the effects of terrorism abroad and news media at home on terror-related worry

We investigate whether terrorist activity abroad affects worry regarding terrorism in Sweden, and the possible mediating effect of news media. Terrorism uses violence to obtain political or social objectives: in addition to the impact on the immediate victims, terrorism affects a much wider audience emotionally by spreading fear and insecurity. Previous research shows that terrorist attacks in a country cause worry for the people in that country; however, little is known about the relationship between public worry and terrorist attacks abroad. This study draws from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), the Swedish press archive Mediearkivet, and the Swedish National Annual Survey (SOM), producing a theoretical model using Generalized Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM). The results show that public worry about terrorism co-varies with the frequency of terrorist activity occurring in the wider geo-cultural region, even if outside of the country of residence. It also shows that public worry is affected not only by single, impactful attacks – so-called ‘one-off’ attacks – but also by an increase in the number of total (even if less individually impactful) attacks in the region. Notably, media coverage ameliorates the impact of terrorism on public worry to some degree. For policy makers these results are particularly important since they show that even in countries free of terrorist events, public fear needs to be managed.

Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019

Abstract: Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019Una Hakvåg (Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)) reviews Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019, an analysis of Russia’s Armed Forces and their fighting power, edited by Fredrik Westerlund & Susanne Oxenstierna.