Deep-layer Shear Research Articles

Intensification Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Directional Shear Flows: Vortex Tilt–Convection Coupling

AbstractThe coupling of vortex tilt and convection, and their effects on the intensification variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in directional shear flows, is investigated in this study. The height-dependent vortex tilt controls TC structural differences in clockwise (CW) and counterclockwise (CC) hodographs during their initial stage of development. Moist convection may enhance the coupling between displaced vortices at different levels and thus reduce the vortex tilt amplitude and enhance precession of the overall vortex tilt during the early stage of development. However, differences in the overall vortex tilt between CW and CC hodographs are further amplified by a feedback from convective heating and therefore result in much higher intensification rates for TCs in CW hodographs than those in CC hodographs. In CW hodographs, convection organization in the left-of-shear region is favored because the low-level vortex tilt is ahead of the overall vortex tilt and the TC moves to the left side of the deep-layer shear. This results in a more humid midtroposphere and stronger surface heat flux on the left side (azimuthally downwind) of the overall vortex tilt, thus providing a positive feedback and supporting continuous precession of the vortex tilt into the upshear-left region. In CC hodographs, convection tends to organize on the right side (azimuthally upwind) of the overall vortex tilt because the low-level vortex tilt is behind the overall vortex tilt and the TC moves to the right side of the deep-layer shear. In addition, convection organizes radially outward near the downshear-right region, which weakens convection within the inner region. These configurations lead to a drier midtroposphere and weaker surface heat flux in the downwind region of the overall vortex tilt and also a broader potential vorticity skirt. As a result, a negative feedback is established that prevents continuous precession of the overall vortex tilt.

The Historic 2 April 2017 Louisiana Tornado Outbreak

On 2 April 2017 Louisiana saw one of its largest tornado outbreaks since 1950. The day saw a total of 21 tornadoes, six of which were classified as significant (EF2+). This extreme event resulted in an estimated 4.2 million dollars in damage and two fatalities. A climatology of Louisiana individual tornado days dating back to 1950 ranked this event second for total number of tornadoes (21) in a day and second for number of significant (EF2+) tornadoes (6) in a day. To assess the overall impact of this outbreak, the Destruction Potential Index (DPI) was used to compare both the overall number and strength of tornadoes to previous events. The 2 April 2017 event had the highest DPI for the state of Louisiana since 1950. Comparisons made to tornado days in nearby states in the region also highlight the significance of this event. The synoptic conditions of 2 April 2017 were compared to a 25-member synoptic scale composite of past Louisiana tornado days with six or more tornadoes. The composite highlighted anomalies in synoptic ingredients that contribute to tornado outbreak environments. Most notably, the synoptic structure consisted of a more meridional flow pattern, which allowed for stronger moisture transport, low level shear, deep layer shear, and increased thermal advection. This produced an optimal mesoscale environment with high instability and storm-relative environmental helicity. The meteorological significance of this event with respect to Louisiana stems from the uncommon combination of a high shear/high CAPE near-storm environment in a southern tornado outbreak. The high shear/high CAPE environment largely responsible for the 2 April 2017 Louisiana tornado outbreak is more commonly observed in Great Plains tornado outbreaks.

Rapid Intensification Near Landfall of Typhoon Vicente (2012)

ABSTRACT Typhoon Vicente (2012) underwent rapid intensification (RI) within 24 h before landfall in Mainland China. Analysis of the large-scale environment and characteristics of Vicente identifies the aforementioned intensification as classic RI. The process occurred in an environmental flow with a deep-layer shear ranging from 5 ms− 1 to 8 ms− 1. Convection caused by persistent vertical shear forcing of the vortex was observed primarily in the down-shear left quadrant of the storm. However, radar and satellite observations indicate that the northern convection of the inner core of Vicente quickly developed in the down-shear right three hours near landfall.

The Evolution of Vortex Tilt and Vertical Motion of Tropical Cyclones in Directional Shear Flows

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of moist dynamics on the intensification variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in directional shear flows. Here, we propose that dry dynamics can account for many aspects of the structure change of TCs in moist simulations. The change of vortex tilt with height and time essentially determines the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of TCs experiencing directional shear flows, depending on how the environmental flow rotates with height, that is, in a clockwise (CW) or counterclockwise (CC) fashion. The vortex tilt precesses faster and is closer to the left-of-shear (with respect to the deep-layer shear) region, with a smaller magnitude at equilibrium in CW hodographs than in CC hodographs. The low-level vortex tilt and accordingly more low-level upward motions are ahead of the overall vortex tilt in CW hodographs but are behind the overall vortex tilt in CC hodographs. Such a configuration of vortex tilt in CW hodographs is potentially favorable for the continuous precession of convection into the upshear region but in CC hodographs it is unfavorable. Most of the upward motions within a TC undergoing CW shear are concentrated in the downshear-left region, whereas those in the CC shear are located in the downshear-right region. Moreover, the upward (downward) motions are in phase with positive (negative) local helicity in both CW and CC hodographs. Here, we present an alternative mechanism that is associated with balanced dynamics in response to vortex tilt to explain the coincidence and also the distribution variability of vertical motions, as well as local helicity in directional shear flows. The balanced dynamics could explain the overlap of positive helicity and convection in both moist simulations and observations.

Sounding-Derived Parameters Associated with Convective Hazards in Europe

Abstract Observed proximity soundings from Europe are used to highlight how well environmental parameters discriminate different kind of severe thunderstorm hazards. In addition, the skill of parameters in predicting lightning and waterspouts is also tested. The research area concentrates on central and western European countries and the years 2009–15. In total, 45 677 soundings are analyzed including 169 associated with extremely severe thunderstorms, 1754 with severe thunderstorms, 8361 with nonsevere thunderstorms, and 35 393 cases with nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) that had no thunderstorms. Results indicate that the occurrence of lightning is mainly a function of CAPE and is more likely when the temperature of the equilibrium level drops below −10°C. The probability for large hail is maximized with high values of boundary layer moisture, steep mid- and low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level. The size of hail is mainly dependent on the deep layer shear (DLS) in a moderate to high CAPE environment. The likelihood of tornadoes increases along with increasing CAPE, DLS, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity. Severe wind events are the most common in high vertical wind shear and steep low-level lapse rates. The probability for waterspouts is maximized in weak vertical wind shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Wind shear in the 0–3-km layer is the best at distinguishing between severe and extremely severe thunderstorms producing tornadoes and convective wind gusts. A parameter WMAXSHEAR multiplying square root of 2 times CAPE (WMAX) and DLS turned out to be the best in distinguishing between nonsevere and severe thunderstorms, and for assessing the severity of convective phenomena.

Atmospheric circulation and sounding-derived parameters associated with thunderstorm occurrence in Central Europe

The main objective of this study is to examine the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns and sounding-derived parameters on thunderstorm occurrence in Central Europe. Thunderstorm activity tends to increase as one moves from the north to the south of the research area. Maximal thunderstorm occurrence is observed in the summer months, while between October and March such activity is much lower. Thunderstorms are also more frequent in spring than in autumn. In the warm season, the occurrence of thunderstorm is associated with the presence of a trough associated with a low located over the North Sea and Scandinavia. In the cold season, the synoptic pattern indicates a strong zonal flow from the west with significantly higher horizontal pressure gradient compared to the warm season. Thunderstorms are more likely to form when the boundary layer's mixing ratios are higher than 8gkg−1. Deep convection is also more likely to occur when the vertical temperature lapse rates (between 800 and 500hPa pressure layers) exceed 6°Ckm−1. During the cold season, considerably higher lapse rates are needed to produce thunderstorms. The values obtained for the convective available potential energy indicate that at least 50Jkg−1 is needed to produce a thunderstorm during wintertime and 125Jkg−1 during summertime. Cold season thunderstorms are formed with a lower instability but with a more dynamic wind field having an average value of deep layer shear that exceeds 20ms−1. The best parameter to distinguish thunderstorm from non-thunderstorm days for both winter and summer months is a combination of the square root of the convective available potential energy multiplied by the deep layer shear.

Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Abstract The dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard’s near–rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the deterministic forecast was very successful and many members correctly forecasted Edouard’s intensification, there was significant spread in the timing of intensification among the members of the ensemble. Utilizing composite groups created according to the near-RI-onset times of the members, it is shown that, for increasing magnitudes of deep-layer shear, RI onset is increasingly delayed; intensification will not occur once a critical shear threshold is exceeded. Although the timing of intensification varies by as much as 48 h, a decrease in shear is observed across the intensifying composite groups ~6–12 h prior to RI. This decrease in shear is accompanied by a reduction in vortex tilt, as the precession and subsequent alignment process begins ~24–48 h prior to RI. Sensitivity experiments reveal that some of the variation in RI timing can be attributed to differences in initial intensity, as the earliest-developing members have the strongest initial vortices regardless of their environment. Significant sensitivity and limited predictability exists for members with weaker initial vortices and/or that are embedded in less conducive environments, under which the randomness of moist convective processes and minute initial differences distant from the surface center can produce divergent forecasts.

Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe and well-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index ≤ −2) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario. Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (≥15 m s−1) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, and model precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%–50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%–25% range are forecast for most regions. A large intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments.

A Statistical Perspective on Wind Profiles and Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Environments of the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract A statistical analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) environmental wind profiles is conducted in order to better understand how vertical wind shear influences TC intensity change. The wind profiles are computed from global atmospheric reanalyses around the best track locations of 7554 TC cases in the Northern Hemisphere tropics. Mean wind profiles within each basin exhibit significant differences in the magnitude and direction of vertical wind shear. Comparisons between TC environments and randomly selected “non-TC” environments highlight the synoptic regimes that support TCs in each basin, which are often characterized by weaker deep-layer shear. Because weaker deep-layer shear may not be the only aspect of the environmental flow that makes a TC environment more favorable for TCs, two new parameters are developed to describe the height and depth of vertical shear. Distributions of these parameters indicate that, in both TC and non-TC environments, vertical shear most frequently occurs in shallow layers and in the upper troposphere. Linear correlations between each shear parameter and TC intensity change show that shallow, upper-level shear is slightly more favorable for TC intensification. But these relationships vary by basin and neither parameter independently explains more than 5% of the variance in TC intensity change between 12 and 120 h. As such, the shear height and depth parameters in this study do not appear to be viable predictors for statistical intensity prediction, though similar measures of midtropospheric vertical wind shear may be more important in particularly challenging intensity forecasts.

Future Changes in Convective Storm Days over the Northeastern United States Using Linear Discriminant Analysis Applied to CMIP5 Predictions

Abstract Future changes in the frequency of environmental conditions conducive for convective storm days (“CE days”) are determined for the northeastern United States (NEUS) during the warm seasons (April–September) of the twenty-first century. Statistical relationships between historical runs of seven models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and radar-classified convective storm days are developed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and these relationships are then applied to analyze changes in the convective environment under the high-emissions representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario over the period 2006–99. The 1996–2007 warm seasons are used to train the LDA thresholds using convective precipitation from two reanalysis datasets and radar data, and the 1979–95 and 2008–10 warm seasons are used to verify these thresholds. For the CMIP5 historical period (1979–2005), the frequency of warm season CE days averaged across the CMIP5 models is slightly greater than that derived using reanalysis data, although both methods indicate a slight increasing trend through the historical period. Between 2006 and 2099, warm season CE day frequency is predicted to increase substantially at an average rate of 4–5 days decade−1 (50%–80% increase over the entire period). These changes are mostly attributed to a predicted 30%–40% increase in midlevel precipitable water between the historical period and the last few decades of the twenty-first century. Consistent with previous studies, there is decreasing deep-layer vertical wind shear as a result of a weakening horizontal temperature gradient, but this is outweighed by increases in instability led by the moisture increases.

Idealized Tropical Cyclone Responses to the Height and Depth of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear

Abstract Three sets of idealized, cloud-resolving simulations are performed to investigate the sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity to the height and depth of environmental vertical wind shear. In the first two sets of simulations, shear height and depth are varied independently; in the third set, orthogonal polynomial expansions are used to facilitate a joint sensitivity analysis. Despite all simulations having the same westerly deep-layer (200–850 hPa) shear of 10 m s−1, different intensity and structural evolutions are observed, suggesting the deep-layer shear alone may not be sufficient for understanding or predicting the impact of vertical wind shear on TCs. In general, vertical wind shear that is shallower and lower in the troposphere is more destructive to model TCs because it tilts the TC vortex farther into the downshear-left quadrant. The vortices that tilt the most are unable to precess upshear and realign, resulting in their failure to intensify. Shear height appears to modulate this tilt response by modifying the thermodynamic environment above the developing vortex early in the simulations, while shear depth modulates the tilt response by controlling the vertical extent of the convective vortex. It is also found that TC intensity predictability is reduced in a narrow range of shear heights and depths. This result underscores the importance of accurately observing the large-scale environmental flow for improving TC intensity forecasts, and for anticipating when such forecasts are likely to have large errors.

A Statistical Analysis of the Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change over the Western North Pacific

Abstract The effect of vertical wind shear (VWS) between different pressure levels on TC intensity change is statistically analyzed based on the best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data during 1981–2013. Results show that the commonly used VWS measure between 200 and 850 hPa is less representative of the attenuating deep-layer shear effect than that between 300 and 1000 hPa. Moreover, the authors find that the low-level shear between 850 (or 700) and 1000 hPa is more negatively correlated with TC intensity change than any deep-layer shear during the active typhoon season, whereas deep-layer shear turns out to be more influential than low-level shear during the remaining less active seasons. Further analysis covering all seasons exhibits that a TC has a better chance to intensify than to decay when the deep-layer shear is lower than 7–9 m s−1 and the low-level shear is below 2.5 m s−1. The probability for TCs to intensify and undergo rapid intensification (RI) increases with decreasing VWS and increasing sea surface temperature (SST). TCs moving at slow translational speeds (less than 3 m s−1) intensify under relatively weaker VWS than TCs moving at intermediate translational speeds (3–8 m s−1). The probability of RI becomes lower than that of rapid decaying (RD) when the translational speed is larger than 8 m s−1. Most TCs tend to decay when the translational speed is larger than 12 m s−1 regardless of the shear condition.

Significant-Hail-Producing Storms in Finland: Convective-Storm Environment and Mode

Abstract The environmental characteristics and convective mode of significant hailstorms (those storms producing reported hail 5 cm or larger in diameter) in Finland during 1972–2011 were analyzed. Altogether, 23 significant-hail-day environments were analyzed by modifying radiosonde data from proximity soundings in the observed data archives of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Convective parameters derived from the environmental soundings were compared between a set of significant-hail soundings and a null set of nonsevere-thunderstorm soundings. A subset of 13 significant-hail days was examined using data from a network of Doppler radars during 1999–2011. Convective-storm mode and storm characteristics (e.g., hook echo, bounded weak-echo region) were determined for the 18 significant-hail-producing storms during these days. Most (78%) of these storms producing significant hail in Finland occurred with supercells. Of the significant-hail days, 39% (9 out of 23) did not have the minimum of 15 m s−1 of deep-layer (0–6 km) shear commonly expected for supercells. Convective parameters of significant-hail and thunderstorm-day environments were substantially different from each other. Specifically, significant-hail environments had a mean most-unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) of 1464 J kg−1 and deep-layer shear of 17.5 m s−1, whereas thunderstorm days had a MUCAPE of 593 J kg−1 and deep-layer shear of 10.2 m s−1. Larger hail was associated with higher values of MUCAPE. The lifetimes and track lengths of significant-hail-producing storms were related to the convective mode and storm environment. Specifically, larger deep-layer shear seemed to support longer lifetimes and track lengths. Nonsupercells had shorter lifetimes, shorter stormtrack lengths, and lower speeds than supercells. The value of deep-layer shear was smaller for nonsupercells than for supercells. Discrete supercells had higher speeds, longer lifetimes, and longer track lengths than cluster supercells.

Radar-based severe storm climatology for Austrian complex orography related to vertical wind shear and atmospheric instability

The paper examines the temporal and spatial distribution of intense convective cores as a function of CAPE and vertical wind shear. C band weather radar data are exploited over the complex orography of Austria. Further ERA-Interim data are used for the classification of synoptic flow and instability. A 5-year period of convective seasons shows the presence of severe thunderstorms over Austria. The spatial distribution of high radar reflectivity differs from the radar derived precipitation field due to the contribution of stratiform rain, weak convective events, and radar related measurement errors. Westerly and southerly flow classes are associated with more widespread thunderstorm development. One of the key results is that the strong deep-layer shear environment leads to organized, line oriented pattern over wide areas of Austria, except the observed minima over the Alpine crest. These preferred areas for severe storm occurrence can be well used for nowcasting. Especially during low CAPE conditions the magnitude of deep-layer shear is very important for the spatial arrangement, maximum size of the convective system, and time of occurrence. For the eastern part of Austria and the Alps, high deep-layer shear tends to produce larger cell cores in terms of high radar reflectivity. For the Alps during low CAPE conditions and for the eastern part of Austria for all CAPE classifications, the strong deep-layer shear increases the frequency of severe storms and shifts the peak of occurrence from afternoon toward the evening.

Quadrant Distribution of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Kinematics in Relation to Environmental Shear

Abstract Airborne Doppler radar data collected in tropical cyclones by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D aircraft over an 8-yr period (2003–10) are used to statistically analyze the vertical structure of tropical cyclone eyewalls with reference to the deep-layer shear. Convective evolution within the inner core conforms to patterns shown by previous studies: convection initiates downshear right, intensifies downshear left, and weakens upshear. Analysis of the vertical distribution of radar reflectivity and vertical air motion indicates the development of upper-level downdrafts in conjunction with strong convection downshear left and a maximum in frequency upshear left. Intense updrafts and downdrafts both conform to the shear asymmetry pattern. While strong updrafts occur in the eyewall, intense downdrafts show far more radial variability, particularly in the upshear-left quadrant, though they concentrate along the eyewall edges. Strong updrafts are collocated with low-level inflow and upper-level outflow superimposed on the background flow. In contrast, strong downdrafts occur in association with low-level outflow and upper-level inflow.

The formation of a large summertime Saharan dust plume: Convective and synoptic-scale analysis

Haboobs are dust storms produced by the spreading of evaporatively cooled air from thunderstorms over dusty surfaces and are a major dust uplift process in the Sahara. In this study observations, reanalysis, and a high-resolution simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to analyze the multiscale dynamics which produced a long-lived (over 2 days) Saharan mesoscale convective system (MCS) and an unusually large haboob in June 2010. An upper level trough and wave on the subtropical jet 5 days prior to MCS initiation produce a precipitating tropical cloud plume associated with a disruption of the Saharan heat low and moistening of the central Sahara. The restrengthening Saharan heat low and a Mediterranean cold surge produce a convergent region over the Hoggar and Aïr Mountains, where small convective systems help further increase boundary layer moisture. Emerging from this region the MCS has intermittent triggering of new cells, but later favorable deep layer shear produces a mesoscale convective complex. The unusually large size of the resulting dust plume (over 1000 km long) is linked to the longevity and vigor of the MCS, an enhanced pressure gradient due to lee cyclogenesis near the Atlas Mountains, and shallow precipitating clouds along the northern edge of the cold pool. Dust uplift processes identified are (1) strong winds near the cold pool front, (2) enhanced nocturnal low-level jet within the aged cold pool, and (3) a bore formed by the cold pool front on the nocturnal boundary layer.

Prediction of Convective Morphology in Near-Cloud-Permitting WRF Model Simulations

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s ability to forecast convective morphological evolution is examined for 37 convective systems. The simulations used Thompson microphysics with 3-km horizontal grid spacing. Ten convective mode classifications were used. An objective score was developed to determine the accuracy of the simulated morphologies considering a normalized duration of each mode simulated and its agreement with observations. Rapid Update Cycle analyses were used to compare larger-scale preinitiation conditions to simulated morphology accuracy, as well as to examine how the WRF model’s skill at predicting these larger-scale conditions influenced its prediction of morphology. Two case studies selected as representative of the most common simulated morphology deficiencies were examined in detail. The model simulated cellular systems relatively well but struggled more with linear systems, particularly bow echoes and squall lines having trailing stratiform rain regions. Morphological evolution was generally better simulated in environments with enhanced deep-layer shear and cooler potential temperatures at the level of maximum θe. Weaker deep-layer shear, cooler potential temperatures at the surface, and quickly warming potential temperatures with height increased the likelihood of timing errors. The first case study showed that a warmer cold pool, much larger line-normal shear, and excessive midlevel drying were present in the model run that failed to develop a trailing stratiform region. The second case study showed that weak shear and the absence of a well-developed cold pool may have played a role in the lack of bowing.

Association of thunderstorm frequency with rainfall occurrences over an Indian urban metropolis

Thunderstorm, associated with strong convective activity in the tropics, is one of the most prominent weather phenomena in the atmosphere. A critical analysis is done on the nature of variation of the thunderstorm frequencies over an urban metropolitan location Kolkata (22°32′N, 88°20′E), India with the pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall amounts during the period 1997–2008. The occurrences of severe thunderstorms are decreasing during the last decade, although the number of ordinary thunderstorms occurring in this period has an increasing trend. A decrease in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Vertical Wind Shear (VWSH), Deep Layer Shear (0–6km AGL) and an increase in Lifted Index (LI) may be an indicator for the suppression of the severity of thunderstorms over the urban location. There is also a decreasing trend for the pre-monsoon rainfall and an increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall amounts over the region. A further study indicated a significant positive correlation for all the types of thunderstorm (severe, ordinary and total) events with the pre-monsoon rainfall amount which are mainly associated with the vigorous convective phenomenon. On the other hand, a significant anti-correlation is observed between the severe thunderstorm frequencies with the monsoon rainfall amount for the same period. The decrease in the severity of the thunderstorm events is accompanied by an increase of pre-monsoon cloud Liquid Water Content (LWC) with Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). Hence, there is an expected strong association of the thunderstorm frequency with the pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall amounts at this tropical location. Possible explanations are presented.

Predictability and Dynamics of a Nonintensifying Tropical Storm: Erika (2009)

Abstract In this study, the predictability of Tropical Storm Erika (2009) is evaluated by analyzing a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with perturbations from a real-time ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system. Erika was forecast to intensify into a hurricane by most operational numerical models, but in reality it never exceeded 50 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1). There is a fairly large spread in the final intensities of the 60 ensemble members indicating large uncertainty in the deterministic prediction of Erika's intensity at 36–48-h lead times. An investigation into which factors prevented intensification of the weaker ensemble members provides insight that may aid in the forecasting of the intensity of future tropical cyclones under similar conditions. A variety of environmental and storm-related factors are examined, and the parameters that have the greatest relation to future intensity are determined based on ensemble sensitivity and correlation analysis. It appears that midlevel relative humidity, absolute vorticity, and the distribution of convection relative to the storm center all play a role in determining whether a given ensemble member intensifies or not. In addition, although differences in deep-layer shear among ensemble members are difficult to discern, many of the ensemble members that do not intensify fail to do so because of apparent dry air intrusions that wrap around the centers of the storms, particularly in the 700–500-hPa layer. In the presence of moderate shear, this dry air is able to penetrate the cores of the cyclones, thereby preventing further development.

Insight into the role of lower-layer vertical wind shear in tropical cyclone intensification over the western North Pacific

Vertical wind shear fundamentally influences changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclogenesis and evolution in the western North Pacific basin are not well understood. We present a new statistical study of all named TCs in this region during the period 2000–2006 using a second-generation partial least squares (PLS) regression technique. The results show that the lower-layer (between 850 hPa and 10 m above the sea surface) wind shear is more important than the commonly analyzed deep-layer shear (between 200 and 850 hPa) for changes in TC intensity during the TC intensification period. This relationship is particularly strong for westerly low-level shear. Downdrafts induced by the lower-layer shear bring low θe air into the boundary layer from above, significantly reducing values of θe in the TC inflow layer and weakening the TC. Large values of deep-layer shear over the ocean to the east of the Philippine Islands inhibit TC formation, while large values of lower-layer shear over the central and western North Pacific inhibit TC intensification. The critical value of deep-layer shear for TC formation is approximately 10 m s−1, and the critical value of lower-layer shear for TC intensification is approximately ±1.5 m s−1.