Association of thunderstorm frequency with rainfall occurrences over an Indian urban metropolis

Abstract

Thunderstorm, associated with strong convective activity in the tropics, is one of the most prominent weather phenomena in the atmosphere. A critical analysis is done on the nature of variation of the thunderstorm frequencies over an urban metropolitan location Kolkata (22°32′N, 88°20′E), India with the pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall amounts during the period 1997–2008. The occurrences of severe thunderstorms are decreasing during the last decade, although the number of ordinary thunderstorms occurring in this period has an increasing trend. A decrease in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Vertical Wind Shear (VWSH), Deep Layer Shear (0–6km AGL) and an increase in Lifted Index (LI) may be an indicator for the suppression of the severity of thunderstorms over the urban location. There is also a decreasing trend for the pre-monsoon rainfall and an increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall amounts over the region. A further study indicated a significant positive correlation for all the types of thunderstorm (severe, ordinary and total) events with the pre-monsoon rainfall amount which are mainly associated with the vigorous convective phenomenon. On the other hand, a significant anti-correlation is observed between the severe thunderstorm frequencies with the monsoon rainfall amount for the same period. The decrease in the severity of the thunderstorm events is accompanied by an increase of pre-monsoon cloud Liquid Water Content (LWC) with Integrated Water Vapor (IWV). Hence, there is an expected strong association of the thunderstorm frequency with the pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall amounts at this tropical location. Possible explanations are presented.