Decline In Rainfall Research Articles

Hydrological changes in the drought‐prone region of Maharashtra (India): Implications for sustainable water use

Recent climatic changes and anthropogenic activities considerably affect regional water resources, particularly in water‐scarce regions. The present study, therefore, aims to understand the changes in monsoon rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET), surface runoff, dam storage and groundwater in the drought‐prone region of Maharashtra. The analyses of trend and step‐change were carried out using standard parametric tests. The results were verified with the application of non‐parametric statistical techniques. Notably, monsoon rainfall and runoff were observed to be declining. Exceptionally, the Yerala Basin witnessed significant increase in rainfall along with heavy rainfall events. Contradictorily, Agrani and Man Basins registered a notable decline in rainfall and runoff. As vulnerability to hydrological disasters is high, these basins should be carefully monitored. Although surface water harvesting brought a positive change in post‐monsoon groundwater level, it was the main reason for a decline in runoff volume at downstream reaches, which led to intra‐basin water disparity. The study area witnessed significant increase in groundwater extraction. Unfortunately, the misuse of government‐subsidized schemes exacerbates groundwater exploitation and stockpiling of water resources. Moreover, the increasing rate of PET augments hydrological losses and amplifies water distress. Interestingly, almost all the hydrological changes were notably experienced during the post‐2000 period. To cope with present and future water scarcity problems, it is therefore necessary to restrict irrational use and allocation of available limited water resources. The findings that emerge from this investigation may help to formulate judicious water policies and plans which could be implemented by the government, agronomists, water resource managers and farmers.

The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years

The cool-season (May to October) rainfall decline in southwestern Australia deepened during 2001–2020 to become 20.5% less than the 1901–1960 reference period average, with a complete absence of very wet years (i.e., rainfall > 90th percentile). CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model simulations suggest that approximately 43% of the observed multi-decadal decline was externally-forced. However, the observed 20-year rainfall anomaly in 2001–2020 is outside the range of both preindustrial control and historical simulations of almost all climate models used in this study. This, and the fact that the models generally appear to simulate realistic levels of decadal variability, suggests that 43% might be an underestimate. A large ensemble from one model exhibits drying similar to the observations in 10% of simulations and suggests that the external forcing contribution is indeed larger (66%). The majority of models project further drying over the twenty-first century, even under strong cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. Under the two warmest scenarios, over 70% of the late twenty-first century years are projected to be drier than the driest year simulated during the 1901–1960 period. Our results suggest that few, if any, very wet years will occur during 2023–2100, even if strong cuts to global emissions are made.

Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean–atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific–Atlantic – Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability.

Perceptions of climate variability and change in coastal Kenya: The case of mangrove-dependent communities in the Lower Tana Delta

Climate change has become a global concern with substantial impacts in all regions, especially coastal communities. In response, coastal communities take different adaptation strategies to minimise the negative impacts of climate change. Understanding climate change from the perspective of local communities can provide valuable insights into policy and strategy planning for the unprecedented consequences of climate change. Data was gathered in three sub-locations through a questionnaire survey (365 households), four (4) focus group discussions (FGDs) and eleven (11) key informant interviews (KIIs). We also explored meteorological data to understand better the local significance of climate variability and climate change. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to analyse the data. The results show that local communities perceived changes in climate variables, consistent with meteorological data, pointing to a significant decline in rainfall and increased temperatures since the 1980s. The communities also highlighted climate-related events such as floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion, and coastal erosion, expressing concern that these were rising. The perceived changes in the climatic variables have led to a decline in crop yields, fish catch, and water quantity, an increase in drought duration and intensity, and plant and animal diseases. Targeted efforts are required, given the likely magnitude of future climate change.

Changing processes flooding a salt marsh in a microtidal estuary with a drying climate

Estuarine salt marshes globally face numerous threats, not least of which include changing hydrological conditions from human alteration and climate change impact to river flows, sea levels and coastal processes. While changing inundation is evident in many systems, often, the detail of which estuarine processes are changing and to what extent they contribute to flooding and habitat distribution remains unknown. Water levels in the microtidal Swan River Estuary (Derbarl Yerrigan), Western Australia, which has experienced significant climate drying since the 1970's, were disaggregated to assess contributions from tides, mean sea level, barometric effects, river flows and river-tide interactions. These contributions were mapped to the habitat of a salt marsh community. The effect of declining river flows on tides were further assessed by wavelet and harmonic analyses. We found that tides and barometric effects presently dominate flooding events of relevance to the salt marsh community. Declining winter runoff resulted in an increase in the tidal amplitude in the upper estuary. There was also a positive winter mean sea level pressure trend, associated with the winter rainfall decline. Altogether, there was zero net change to flooding of a salt marsh in the estuary from these processes. Therefore, steady sea level rise masked changes in the relative contribution of flooding mechanisms in the estuary which have implications for the stability of the marsh ecosystem. Disaggregating process contributions to salt marsh water levels offers a means to better assess the hydrodynamic processes presently sustaining salt marsh communities and to inform how they might change in the future. These results show that numerous hydrological processes can interact to mask non-stationary changes to estuarine hydrology supporting salt marsh habitat.

Role of local absorbing aerosols in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Absorbing aerosols and their impact on the Indian monsoon system is highly complex and demands more scientific understanding. Our study using a chemistry-coupled regional climate model (RegCM 4.5) with idealized experiments observed that natural and anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (i.e., dust and carbonaceous aerosols) reduce monsoon precipitation in a seasonal time scale. More than 1 mm day−1 decline in mean summertime rainfall was observed over parts of the central Indian region and Indo-Gangetic plane for dust aerosol. A substantial reduction in the land-sea pressure gradient and lower tropospheric moisture distribution were found to control the observed modulation in rainfall. Near-surface wind circulation responded distinctly to natural (dust) and anthropogenic (carbonaceous) aerosols. The dust forcing weakened the monsoon trough by creating an anomalous anticyclonic circulation. The Northern Arabian Sea acted as a moisture source for the carbonaceous aerosol forcing. Intraseasonal rainfall over central India appeared to have a sharp reduction for dust forcing during early June, with a moderate increase for carbonaceous aerosols. Such quantification is essential for understanding the impact of aerosol forcing on regional climate change and the water cycle and has implications for emissions management and mitigation policies.

Vulnerability of communities' livelihoods to the impacts of climate change in north-western highlands of Tanzania

Climate change has emerged as one of the critical challenges to human well-being. Changing climate places direct and indirect impacts on human activities and is mainly triggered by non-climatic stressors, which are diverse and inherent in many communities. However, there has been diversity in how climate and non-climatic stress factors affect human well-being and thus requiring locally specific contextualisation of how climate change is driving change in many ecosystems. This study analysed climate and non-climate factors for communities' vulnerability and impacts using a landscape approach in selected villages in the western highlands of Tanzania, specifically in Kasulu and Buhigwe districts in Kigoma Region. The aim was to understand communities' vulnerability to the impacts of climate, and non-climate processes, particularly with regard to livelihoods and impacts, particularly in forest resources. Study sites and respondents were selected through simple random and purposive sampling methods. Data were collected through household surveys, key informants interviews, and focus group discussions. Meteorological data were used for the analysis of climatic changes. Quantitative data analysis tools included meteorological statistics software such as CLIDATA, INSTAT, XLSTAT and SPSS. Theme-content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. Findings indicate inter-annual and seasonal variabilities of rainfall and temperature levels from the normal across the study sites. The study revealed significant increasing trends for mean annual Maximum and Minimum temperature. Significant changes in rainfall patterns were decreasing seasonal and annual rainfall trends, unreliable onset and cessation, and erratic seasonal rainfall. The maximum decline of seasonal rainfall had slope values of −14.51, while the maximum decline of annual rainfall trends had a slope value of −12.76. The minimum decline for seasonal rainfall had slope values of −2.17, and annual rainfall trends had slope values of −1.36. Villages in the highland zone were found to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and non-climate stress factors, with a 0.61 vulnerability index value. Major climate stress factors for communities' vulnerability included seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature increase, which influenced the increase of pests and diseases and other unfavourable climatic conditions that affect crop production and livestock keeping. The effects, directly and indirectly, influenced the low agricultural yields and decreased income. Non-climate stress factors such as landscape characteristics, mobility, inadequate extension services, and low household asset endowment might have been accelerating communities' vulnerability to the effects of the changing climate. Moreover, the study shows the climate change on a community's resilience. Generally, changes in climate conditions result in many adverse consequences and have been influencing communities' vulnerability.

Analysing the Impact of the Southwest Monsoon on Kharif Rice Acreage in the Raipur District Using Microwave Remote Sensing

This study utilized Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from Sentinel-1 to estimate the kharif paddy acreage in the Raipur district. The unique capability of microwaves to penetrate clouds enabled the mapping of paddy fields even during the monsoon season. Supervised classification based on training samples was employed to delineate paddy fields. The results demonstrated that the estimated paddy area closely matched the reported area, with error percentages of 5.3% and 8.6% in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The analysis of data from 2011 to 2019 revealed a consistent decline in both paddy acreage and rainfall during that period. Furthermore, the block-level analysis indicated significant spatial variations, with the Arang blocks having the largest paddy cover and the Raipur block the least. Moreover, a strong correlation was observed between southwest monsoon rainfall and the kharif rice cultivation, with paddy acreage decreasing during SW monsoon deficit years. These findings shed light on the impact of monsoons on rice cultivation and can guide agricultural planning and water resource management strategies in the region.

Cyprus Surface Water Area Variation Based on the 1984–2021 Time Series Built from Remote Sensing Products

Cyprus experiences the highest level of water stress among European Union countries due to several interplaying factors such as rainfall variability and increasing water demand. These instigate the nation to build dams on almost all rivers of the island to satisfy the requirements for drinking water and irrigation. Many studies have been primarily conducted on assessing water availability for various uses, particularly for drinking water supply and irrigation. However, there is still a gap/less explored area in terms of a better understanding of changes in surface water over time. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the water surface area variation in Cyprus over the past four decades based on remote sensing products, timeseries analysis and trend detection. The result reveals a statistically significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in water surface area between 1984–2021. However, following the completion of the final reservoir in 2010, a statistically significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05) was observed in the permanent water surface area. This decline is related to both climatic variability and increased water demands. We observed cycles of 6, 8, and 11 years in permanent water. These cycles indicate a recurring pattern of water scarcity, with severe implication already observed on both economic activity and agriculture. The recent decade has witnessed a decline in rainfall, and this is evident through the decrease in vegetation greenness in rainfed agricultural regions, highlighting its impact. Therefore, the findings of this study underscore not only the necessity for the development of infrastructure aimed at conserving water, but also reinforces the need to discuss water use priorities in Cyprus.

Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources of the Ouham River Basin at Batangafo, Central African Republic

This paper examines the effect of rainfall decline on water resources in each sub-basin (Bozoum: 8100 km2 and Bossangoa: 22,800 km2) and at the outlet of Batangafo (43,650 km2) over the 1951–1995 period, due to a lack of measurements since 1996. Annual, monthly, and daily series of rainfall and discharges were subjected to statistical tests (rainfall and flow indices, SPI, search for ruptures/breaks, depletion coefficient, and potential groundwater discharge) to present and discuss the rainfall variability impact on the water resources of the whole basin. The average rainfall per sub-basin decreases from the west to the east according to the Ouham river direction: 1423 mm at Bozoum, 1439 mm at Bossangoa, and 1393 mm at Batangafo, the main outlet. The SPI approach provides evidence of a moderate to normal drought in the whole basin in the 1980s, mainly compared to the 1970s. Thus, deficient breaks in the rainfall series of the Ouham Basin at Batangafo were noticed in 1967 (Bossangoa and Batangafo) and 1969 (Bozoum). A declining rainfall of −5% on average tended to have the highest impact on the runoff deficit, from about −30 to −43%. The deficit seems more important from west to east, and is also high over the groundwater in each outlet (−33% at Bozoum, −29% at Bossangoa, and −31% at Batangafo) in the 1986–1995 period, despite rainfall recovery in 1991 having generated a flow increase in 1995 at Bossangoa as well as at Batangafo. At the same time, Chari/Logone at Ndjamena recorded critical discharges in both 1987 (313 m3/s) and 1990 (390 m3/s) before they increased, such as on the Ouham. These results demonstrate the decline in water resources in the Ouham River, and their direct impact on the water level of the Chari River and Lake Chad in the targeted period.

Climatic-Geomorphological Investigation of the World's Wettest Areas around Cherrapunji and Mawsynram, Meghalaya (India)

This research paper comprehensively examines the climate and geomorphological features of Cherrapunji and Mawsynram, aiming to understand the factors and environmental implications of their extreme precipitation. The study investigates climatic patterns, identifies geomorphological characteristics, and explores the factors influencing the occurrence of heavy rainfall in these areas, and displays unique rainfall patterns with high precipitation levels and notable spatio-temporal variation influenced by topographic interactions. Trend analysis reveals stable rainfall conditions over the past 122 years. The shift of the world's wettest place from Cherrapunji to Mawsynram in recent decades have been attributed to various factors such as geographical location, geomorphology-local topography, LULC-human influence, rain shadow effect, and orographic lifting effects. Cherrapunji recorded maximum rainfall of 24.55 thousand mm, while Mawsynram received 26 thousand mm of rainfall in the last century. The analysis of long-term rainfall data indicates distinct dry and wet seasons, with recent trends (2000-2020) suggesting a decline in rainfall for both locations. Furthermore, extreme value analysis techniques are employed to estimate maximum rainfall for different return periods, offering insights into extreme rainfall events. The return period of one day's highest rainfall of 1340.82 mm is about 100 years. The findings contribute to our understanding of climate change impacts, support sustainable development practices, and inform strategies for water resource management and erosion mitigation in similar geographic contexts. This research enhances our knowledge of these unique regions and their significance within the broader context of global climate systems.

Causes and Consequences of Environmental Degradation in Mizoram, Northeast India

The problem of environmental degradation due to deterioration of natural resources has become an important issue and is one of the burning problems in the 21st century in northeast India, especially in Mizoram. It is clear that deforestation, ground water depletion, soil erosion, decline in rainfall, river water pollution and volume decreases in dry season are the major threats to environmental degradation in this fragile terrain. Anthropogenic activities by land use changes due to settlement expansion, over exploitation of land and forest resources for intensive agriculture appear to be the major causes for the fast depletion of resources. Therefore, it is necessary to protect natural resources in order to mitigate multi-dimensional environmental degradation. This study is an attempt to analyze the causes and consequences of environmental degradation in this area based on the resources of land, water and forest. Implementation of appropriate measures like judicious use of natural resources, utilizing education to minimize economic backwardness and inclusion of community participation helps to mitigate environmental deterioration to great extent.

Investigating Meteorological Drought in the Northern Region of Nigeria and its Linkage with Climatic Drivers

Drought is a dearth of water, and a recurrence in all regions, but severe in the semi-arid and arid areas with adverse climatic conditions. There have been quite several studies in the country, but fewer in comparison to flood studies, which is in part due to drought nature as a hazard in the region. Drought creeping presence, the prevalence in arid northern Nigeria, and the water deficient problems have spawned the need for this research. The study aims to investigate drought events and drivers using the Standardised Precipitation Index and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for assessing drought historicity, principal component analysis to ascertain the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall and meteorological drought, in addition to wavelet analysis to determine the relationship with climatic drivers in the region. The region is around latitude 6° N and 14° N and between longitude 2° E and 15° E within the Savanna region of Nigeria covering an area of 729, 815 square kilometers. For analyses, gridded rainfall data was collected from 1951-2021 and processed with a 4-step homogeneity test to track the decline in rainfall and the advent of drought in the region. These analyses showed that drought episodes are a recurring climatic theme in the region, and it was severe in the 1970s, 1980s and continued into the 21st century. Also, principal component analysis and K-means clustering techniques proved that coherence and variation between the regions are a function of the spatial distance between them. Further examination proved that rainfall transits between humid to arid regions, declining in events and intensity as it moves northward of the area. Drought relationship with climatic indices outlines the Tropical South Atlantic as a principal factor with a leading signal of 4-12 months, in the influence of weather conditions, which creates a window in drought management through monitoring.

Long-term decline in rainfall causing depletion in groundwater aquifer storage sustaining the springflow in the middle-Himalayan headwaters

Long-term decline in rainfall causing depletion in groundwater aquifer storage sustaining the springflow in the middle-Himalayan headwaters

The perception of the locals on the impact of climate variability on non-timber forest products in Ghana

All biological products obtained from forests other than timber are considered non-timber forest products (NTFPs). NTFPs production levels in Ghana are affected by climate change. Over the past years, NTFPs have adversely affected by prolonged droughts and short rainfall in Ghana. In rural areas, where NTFP enhance livelihoods for rural dwellers, this adversely affects their food security. This study aimed to determine how rural dwellers in Ghana perceive the impact of annual variability in rainfall and temperature on their non-timber forest products. To better understand how residents perceive climate change's effect on NTFPs, 732 residents were interviewed. Household information and perceptions regarding changes to the availability of NTFP (snails, mushrooms, honey, etc.) were recorded using structured and semi-structured questionnaires. As a result of the sharp rise in temperature and the decline in rainfall, combined with a prolonged drought, there has been a decline in the production levels of NTFPS in the forest areas of the country. The respondents reported a decline in the production levels of honey, snails, and mushrooms, as well as income generated. It is imperative that the Ghana government, through the Ghana forestry commission, educate rural dwellers about the importance of NTFP sustainable use and implement afforestation programs to help regenerate degraded forest areas that threaten some of the organisms required for the production of NTFPs. Embarking on afforestation programs will help improve the climatic conditions supporting the production of NTFPs.

A case study on the changing pattern of monsoon rainfall duration and its amount during recent five decades in different agroclimatic zones of Punjab state of India

Rainfall is an important part of hydrological cycle and any alteration in its pattern influence water resources. In Punjab, the monsoon season of 77 days extending during three months July, August and September, receives rainfall at an average rate of 6 mm/day. In the present study, monsoon rainfall data for three parts of the state, viz., the north eastern region (1984-2020), Central plain region (1970-2020) and the south western region (1977-2020) of the state have been analyzed using non-parametric tests, i.e., descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope. Though, the duration of the monsoon season has increased over the last two decades at 0.8 day/year, the rate of rainfall has decreased as rainfall has been less than normal during 17 of the past 20 years. The monsoon rainfall analysis for the five decades indicates a significant decrease in rainfall at 0.7 mm/year which has mainly been due to a decline in rainfall in the north eastern region. The Sen’s slope value of -4.77 (Ballowal) and -0.60 (Bathinda) indicate a decreasing trend of rainfall in the region. The decreasing trend in rainfall received during the July-August months with Sen’s slope values ranging between -0.04 to -2.50 and -0.24 to -3.14, indicates that the months which contribute 70 percent to total rainfall are not a good signal for the agriculture sector in the state.

Assessing climate model accuracy and future climate change in Ghana's Savannah regions

Abstract This study aimed to compare the performance of six regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating observed and projecting future climate in the Savannah zone of Ghana, in order to find suitable methods to improve the accuracy of climate models in the region. The study found that the accuracy of both individual RCMs and their ensemble mean improved with bias correction, but the performance of individual RCMs was dependent on location. The projected change in annual precipitation indicated a general decline in rainfall with variations based on the RCM and location. Projections under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 were larger than those under RCP 4.5. The changes in mean temperature recorded were 1 °C for the 2020s for both RCPs, 1–4 °C for the 2050s under both RCPs, and 1– 4 °C under RCP 4.5, and from 2 to 8 °C for the 2080s. These findings will aid farmers and governments in the West African subregion in making informed decisions and planning cost-effective climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the ecosystem. The study highlights the importance of accurate climate projections to reduce vulnerability to climate change and the need to improve climate models in projecting climate in the West African subregion.

Future Projection of Drought Risk over Indian Meteorological Subdivisions Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Scenarios

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of extreme events, especially drought and wet events, spanning over the past years, evaluating their trends over time. An investigation of future projections under various scenarios such as SSP-126, SS-245, and SSP-585 for the near (2023–2048), mid (2049–2074), and far future (2075–2100) using the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparisons Project 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble method was also performed. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a simple yet incredibly sensitive tool for measuring changes in drought, is utilized in this study, providing a valuable assessment of drought conditions across multiple timescales. The historical analysis shows that there is a significant increase in drought frequency in subdivisions such as East MP, Chhattisgarh, East UP, East Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Rayalaseema over the past decades. Our findings from a meticulous examination of historical rainfall trends spanning from 1951 to 2022 show a noticeable decline in rainfall across various regions such as Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, and north-eastern states, with a concurrent increase in rainfall over areas such as Gujarat, adjoining regions of West MP and East Rajasthan, and South Interior Karnataka. The future projection portrays an unpredictable pattern of extreme events, including droughts and wet events, with indications that wet frequency is set to increase under extreme SSP scenarios, particularly over time, while highlighting the susceptibility of the northwest and south peninsula regions to a higher incidence of drought events in the near future. Analyzing the causes of the increase in drought frequency is crucial to mitigate its worst impacts, and recent experiences of drought consequences can help in effective planning and decision-making, requiring appropriate mitigation strategies in the vulnerable subdivisions.

Comparing farmers’ perceptions of climate change with meteorological data: A case study of livestock farmers in Eswatini’s lowveld region

This paper compared livestock farmers’ perceptions of climate change with meteorological data with the intent of understanding the predictors of farmers’ perceptions. Primary and secondary data sources were used. The sample size was 278 farmers. The data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed that livestock farmers are mainly aged, married males that practiced mixed farming and reared mainly cattle and goats. The farmers’ perceptions were that the climate had changed notably with increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, delayed rain season and an increased intensity of drought. Climate trends indicated a significant decline in temperatures in the northern lowveld and an increase in the southern lowveld. There was pronounced rainfall variability and a significant decline in summer rainfall in the north. Comparison of climate trends with the farmers’ perceptions revealed some incoherent correlations regarding temperature in the north and annual rainfall throughout the lowveld. Age, education, experience, location, who managed the farm and the crops grown were found to be significant predictors of farmers’ perceptions using multinomial logistic regression. Focusing interventions on these bio-demographic variables will positively enhance farmers’ perception and adaptation. It is further recommended that future studies incorporate drought and floods in comparing trends and perceptions.

Rainfall Forecast and Drought Analysis for Recent and Forthcoming Years in India

Agriculture is the primary profession in India which relies on several climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, etc., for the successful growth of crops. Weather and drought forecasting may help to take preventive measures in an unusual situation due to crop failure. Most of the existing work attempts to forecast the weather or analyse the reason for the occurrence of drought and its effects in the past. This paper adopts the machine learning model called the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to forecast the long-term rainfall and standardised precipitation index for drought estimation. The predicted annual rainfall from LSTM is taken as an input to forecast the drought conditions of India for the upcoming years, which is a unique approach and objective, and based on this work appropriate decisions can be made for future actions. The past 117 years of rainfall and drought conditions are compared with the recent 50 years by analysing the data in several ways in order to predict the future scenario. The forecasted results are compared with actual observations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the LSTM model to produce adequate results. The error and network loss of the model is 0.059 and 0.0036, which is minimal, and the forecasted rainfall level is almost equal to actual level specifically accuracy is 99.46% for the previous year, 2021. It was found that there is a rainfall decline of 0.04% every year. Apart from the prediction for the country, a clear picture of the region regarding drought forecasts is presented in this work. The real-time drought level is mild and moderate for most of the regions in the country which matches with the drought level determined using forecasted rainfall.