Decline In Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

Specific Effect of Innovation Factors on Socioeconomic Development of Countries in View of the Global Crisis

Although the coronavirus pandemic has now faded into the background, the global crisis caused by COVID-19 has had the most devastating impacts worldwide. Given the potential relapse of such unexpected and uncertain events, it is vital to specify the patterns thereof and develop proactive measures for the countries to acquire an advanced readiness to deal with the related incidents. The most infected countries faced an increase in business bankruptcies, unemployment and inflation rates, low production volumes, and a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To withstand such socioeconomic consequences, the countries had to employ a number of measures, with innovation development acceleration being one. This paper aims to assess the dependency of an increase in GDP and a decrease in inflation and unemployment rates on the country-level growth of innovation development according to such Global Innovation Index (GII) pillars as institutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophistication, business sophistication, knowledge and technology outputs, and creative outputs. The conducted research analysis covered the period from 2019 to 2022 based on the data for the GII pillar development level and economic performance indicators for 20 countries from five socioeconomic models. Descriptive and comparative statistics as well as correlation and regression analysis were used to prove the innovation development to be a key driver in increasing GDP and reducing inflation. To increase the GDP value, special attention should be paid to such GII pillars as institutions and human capital and research, while infrastructure and human capital and research are the pillars to reduce the inflation rates.

The U-shaped relationship between corruption and international tourism demand: A gravity model approach

The tourism industry significantly contributes to a country’s economic growth and creates a positive image of the destination. This study assesses the impact of corruption on international tourism demand. It employs two-dimensional analyses using the gravity model and a pooled ordinary least square estimator to provide a unique recognition of international tourism demand. The study utilized a conditional quantile regression technique to analyze a dataset of 200 destination countries from 1995 to 2022. The empirical results demonstrate a mixed effect of corruption on international tourism demand. The analysis reveals a non-linear relationship between corruption and international tourism demand, with the inverted-U relationship being statistically significant only at the 50th–75th quantiles and not holding at the upper and lower quantiles. The research confirms that income has a positive impact on tourism across quantiles, but the impact is disproportionate. The sub-period of 2006–2022 experienced a significant decline in gross domestic product (GDP) due to the global financial crisis and its aftershocks, which severely impacted the attractiveness of destination countries for tourists. These valuable insights can inform national tourism policies and businesses.

ИНФЛЯЦИЯ И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ СТРАНЫ

The scientific article contains a review of domestic and foreign literature on the issues of ensuring growth in the gross domestic product, pricing in the conditions of agricultural production, and import substitution. Data from the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service on the dynamics of the consumer price index and the level of gross domestic product in the period from 2017 to 2023 are presented. Statistical data on the dynamics of the level of the consumer price index showed significant changes both in the direction of increasing consumer prices and in the direction of their decrease. Thus, in 2022, a significant increase in consumer prices amounted to 3.55 percent, and in 2023, there was a decrease in consumer prices by 4.52 percent. The growth (decrease) rate of the consumer price index and gross domestic product was determined, a decrease in the gross domestic product in 2020 by 1.7 percent and a decrease in the consumer price index in 2019 by 1.2 percent were identified, and in 2023 there was a decrease of 4 percent. It is noted that the decline in gross domestic product in 2020 is associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to identify the relationship between the level of gross domestic product and the consumer price index, the value of the correlation coefficient was determined. The positive value of the correlation coefficient recorded a direct relationship between the volume of gross domestic product and the consumer price index. A correlation coefficient value of 0.9 indicates a close relationship between the volume of gross domestic product and the consumer price index. Thus, the results of theoretical studies have been confirmed that the volume of gross domestic product is significantly influenced by the level of consumer prices.

Impact of introducing Chinese certified emission reduction scheme to the carbon market: Promoting renewable energy

The China Certified Emission Reduction scheme (CCER) and the Cap-and-Trade (CaT) mechanisms jointly constitute the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), which is expected to have a profound impact on China's social and economic decarbonization. However, previous studies have primarily focused on the impact of the CaT mechanism, neglecting the fact that CCERs serve as a carbon offset trading mechanism. This paper focuses on the impact of the CCER mechanism on China's energy economy and environment by constructing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that couples CaT and CCER mechanisms. Introducing the CCER mechanism based on the CAT mechanism leads to increased output and reduced prices in renewable energy sectors, cascading positive effects across various energy-utilizing sectors to counter the decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and residential welfare. The finding suggests that China's unique CCER mechanism is poised to play a more important role in promoting renewable energy to mitigate global warming, given its potential to transform the structure of energy production and consumption. Finally, targeted policy recommendations are proposed for implementing the CCER mechanism.

Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Tahun 2018 – 2022

This study aims to analyze the effect of exports and imports before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic. The decline in export-import activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic has hurt Indonesia, where exports in 2020 compared to 2019 have decreased by 2.68 percent. In addition there are war between Rusia and Ukraine which gives effect to our Intrenational trade. This research was conducted using a quantitative method with export, import and economic growth variables in Indonesia from 2018 to 2020 by using data panel regression methods. Data was obtained from various sources in the form of journals and books along with publication data from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. The results of the study show economic growth affected by exports and import by 76.25%. Exports have a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, imports have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Exports and imports of goods and services during the pandemic era had a major impact on the Indonesia economy, proven by the 2.07% decline in gross domestic product in 2020. War Russia and Ukraine did not have a big impact because it benefited Indonesia in terms of oil exports to international markets, but the quality of goods and services needed to be improved in order to compete in international markets. And imports need to be controlled so that the balance of trade is not disrupted and the production of goods and services in Indonesia is still fulfilled.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Growth and R&D Spending in Czechia, Germany, and Poland

Abstract The article investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth, specifically focusing on research and development (R&D) expenditures in the Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland. The analysis spans the periods preceding, during, and following the pandemic. The central objective of the article is to examine whether the pandemic, considering the implemented restrictions and associated financial aid, influenced the economic growth trajectory and the allocation of resources to research and development in the aforementioned Central European countries. The research utilizes time series data from 2011 to 2022, sourced from Eurostat, to track the evolution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Expenditure on Research and Development (GERD). Key indicators under scrutiny included GDP, GERD, and R&D intensity – GERD as a percentage of GDP. A chain index was constructed to facilitate not only cross-country comparisons of these indicators but also an examination of year-to-year changes and an analysis of the growth rate of the GERD indicator. The research findings reveal that that COVID-19 really affected not only the development of the monitored economies but also the R&D area; however, it was not the same in all the monitored countries. The impact of the pandemic can be seen in the decline in GDP in all three countries in 2020, but GERD decreased in only two of them – the Czech Republic and Germany. Poland experienced a significant increase in research and development funding in real terms. Both indicators (GDP and GERD) immediately resumed their growth in 2021 in all analyzed countries. From that it can be concluded that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the GDP and GERD of the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland was not of a long-term nature.

Macroeconomic impact of Ebola outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic Ebola vaccination programs.

Decisions about prevention of and response to Ebola outbreaks require an understanding of the macroeconomic implications of these interventions. Prophylactic vaccines hold promise to mitigate the negative economic impacts of infectious disease outbreaks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between outbreak size and economic impact among countries with recorded Ebola outbreaks and to quantify the hypothetical benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination interventions in these outbreaks. The synthetic control method was used to estimate the causal impacts of Ebola outbreaks on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have previously experienced Ebola outbreaks between 2000 and 2016, where no vaccines were deployed. Using illustrative assumptions about vaccine coverage, efficacy, and protective immunity, the potential economic benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination were estimated using the number of cases in an outbreak as a key indicator. The impact of Ebola outbreaks on the macroeconomy of the selected countries led to a decline in GDP of up to 36%, which was greatest in the third year after the onset of each outbreak and increased exponentially with the size of outbreak (i.e., number of reported cases). Over three years, the aggregate loss estimated for Sierra Leone from its 2014-2016 outbreak is estimated at 16.1 billion International$. Prophylactic vaccination could have prevented up to 89% of an outbreak's negative impact on GDP, reducing the outbreak's impact to as little as 1.6% of GDP lost. This study supports the case that macroeconomic returns are associated with prophylactic Ebola vaccination. Our findings support recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination as a core component of prevention and response measures for global health security.

Justification for the development of measures to neutralize sanctions pressure and further development of the Russian economy

An unprecedented number of sanctions have been imposed against Russia over the past year. The sanctions imposed against our country by Western countries have affected almost all spheres of the economy. From industry and agriculture to the banking sector, from the blatant discrimination of our athletes in the international arena to the attempt to abolish Russian culture. The article analyzes the impact of sanctions on various sectors of the economy, including the energy sector, mechanical engineering, agriculture, banking and IT spheres, and others. The strengths and weaknesses of the domestic economy are assessed, the directions in which the countries of the world critically depend on Russia are presented, among them the production of agricultural products, fertilizers, chemical, metallurgical, machine-building and other industries. The analysis of macroeconomic indicators of Russia and some Western countries that imposed sanctions is carried out. Macroeconomic analysis showed the stability of the domestic economy, while the decline in gross domestic product was less than predicted, and domestic inflation was lower than in some Western countries. A large section of the article is devoted to areas to reduce the country's dependence on Western products and technologies, presents the main measures to neutralize sanctions pressure and further development of the Russian economy, which the authors divided into three areas: measures in the short, medium, and long-term prospects. The list of measures to reduce the negative impact of sanctions, among other things, included ensuring budget revenues through the sale of energy resources, import substitution of products of departed Western companies, ensuring the sustainability of the economy, the development of a digital, and subsequently an innovative economy. All this should ensure the socio-economic prosperity of the state and ensure its sustainable development for many years.

The impact of factors on GDP in Kyrgyzstan

The purpose of the article is to show the negative impact of the COVID-19 on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in Kyrgyzstan. The research methodology is based on the works of domestic scientists and information and analytical reviews regarding GDP in Kyrgyzstan. An analysis was made of GDP growth after the country′s accession to the EAEU (Eurasion Economic Union). Our country sought to join this union, and as it turned out, not in vain. The positive results from the performance in the EAEU are shown, especially for such a macroeconomic indicator as GDP. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in Kyrgyzstan and in other countries has been revealed. The consequences of the pandemic have been devastating for almost all countries. An analysis was made of the decline in GDP during the pandemic in Kyrgyzstan. Measures are given to ensure positive dynamics of the economic growth, such as the creation of favorable conditions for entrepreneurship; improving the business and stimulating investment activity; creating conditions for increasing productivity in the real sector of the economy; strengthening foreign trade relations and developing the domestic market. The obtained scientific results can be used in the program to improve the economic situation in the country.

Impacts of the Major Drought in Chile and Mitigation Measures

Since 2010, Chile has experienced a megadrought. It is the most persistent and severe climatic issue of the last millennium, affecting not only precipitation and temperature but also lakes and glaciers. This article aims to summarize the specific impacts caused by the drought in Chile and give some advice to alleviate these effects. To begin with, the study will focus on analyzing the increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall, and decline in water surface area of particular lakes. Additionally, it will delve into the effects of climate change on plant and animal species as well as human activities, including a decrease in vegetation coverage, disruption of the food chain, a substantial reduction in biodiversity, and a decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Finally, the study will also propose a range of measures to minimize these impacts from both biological and political perspectives. There are two main ways: (i) change the genes of plants to make them more adaptable to the environment; (ii) transport sea water from the Pacific Ocean and build water management plants. In the future, scientists and governments will be required to find more ways to mitigate the impacts of the megadrought and promote some measures to protect the environment. This article could provide some new ideas for improving the climate in Chile in the future.

Причины эмиграции граждан стран Центрально-Восточной Европы и Балтии в Великобританию (1990–2004 гг.)

Importance. In recent years, historiography, mass media, and representatives of the political elite show a growing interest in the causes of Brexit, which led to Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. In this context, research into the Central-Eastern European and Baltic Countries Citizens Emigration to Great Britain, which contributed to the growth of anti-emigrant sentiment in the United Kingdom, is of particular importance. An important place in the study of emigration problems is occupied by analyzing the reasons for emigration and its perception by citizens of the region countries Research Methods. The historical and genetic method is used, which allowed to consider emigration in dynamics, reveal its causes, the main characteristics of migration flows and the perception of this process by different social groups. Results and Discussion. The socialist system collapse in Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic States required the new governments to destroy the planned socialist economy and create new national economy organization principles. Its liberalization and integration into the world economy led at first to a decline in Gross Domestic Product, inflation, structural changes in the labor market and an increase in unemployment, especially in the difficult situation of young people. The gap in the level and quality of life between the Western Europe and Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic states made the Eastern Europeans departure to the Great Britain attractive. Most potential emigrants according to sociological surveys and analytical research, including the commission of K. Dastman considered short-term emigration as a behavioral strategy. Conclusions. Difficulties in the Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic States transition to a market economy result to an increase in migration attitudes among citizens. The main reason for emigration from Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltic states to Great Britain, as well as to other Western European countries, is economic reasons; the political factor did not play a significant role in all region countries.

Cardiovascular Health Implications of Worsening Economic Indices in Nigeria: A Narrative Review

Poor economic indices are implicated in adverse health outcomes. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally with more impact in low- and middle-income countries. Despite some documented associations between worsening economic indices and cardiovascular health, there is however knowledge gap on this topic in this environment. We conducted a narrative review to provide an overview of the impact of dwindling economy and cardiovascular health in Nigeria. A comprehensive search of electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar was conducted. The search terms were cardiovascular health, economic indices, and Nigeria. Inclusion criteria were studies published in English language between 2010 and 2021. There is limited knowledge on the association between worsening economic indices and cardiovascular health in Nigeria. The Nigerian government’s spending on health care was less than the recommended 15% of the budget. There was a decline in gross domestic product from 5.31% in 2011 to 3.65% in 2021 and a rise in the inflation rate and unemployment rate from 10.84% and 3.77% to 16.95% and 9.79%, respectively, over this period. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia, which are the leading causes of cardiovascular morbidity, increased in the period of study. The exchange rate of naira to other global currencies worsened with attendant rise in the cost of health-care and cardiovascular medications. There is a huge knowledge gap on the impact of worsening economic indices and cardiovascular health. However, the existing evidence showed that the Nigerian government’s spending on health is low and poor economic indices may be related to the worsening cardiovascular health in Nigeria. There is a need for more research to assess the impact of these indices on cardiovascular health.

პანდემიის გამოწვევები საქართველოს ეკონომიკაში

The global pandemic is having a significant impact on the economy of Georgia. Statistical analysis of 2020-2021 shows that there is a significant decline in GDP (Gross Domestic Product), - the most important indicator of the country's development. A reduction is observed in individual components of Gross Value Added, - in almost all branches of the economy. Particularly noteworthy is to mention the decline in GDP per capita during this period. It negatively affects on the life of population. Overcoming the economic crisis and economic prosperity is a priority for today. However, it is very important that the goodness of economic growth is felt by each resident of the country.

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models. Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend. Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.

ISSUES OF IMPLEMENTATION OF SYSTEM OF CONTROL IN SUSTAINABLE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES

In recent years, pondium problems in many countries around the world have created a financial crisis, negatively affecting the macroeconomic performance of many countries, which has led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) as well as greater problems in economic development. The globalization of economic processes in the world has increased the uncertainty of the external environment in the national economy of both individual and national economies as a whole, creating the need to develop scientifically based methods and approaches to effective management of industries. Today, the formation of an effective management system of the economic system must be based on the principles of sustainable development. Management should be carried out in order to achieve the level of financial sustainability of the enterprise, on the one hand, and on the other hand, in accordance with the strategic objectives of the actual situation of the business entity. This is because the existence of objective uncertainty in the external environment of the enterprise and the subjectivity of decisions make it necessary to develop a control system for the stability of the enterprise, which should allow the formation of optimal management decisions aimed at increasing financial and economic stability. Thus, the stability of an economic system based on scientific methods of modeling and optimization in a dynamic environment, based on preventive measures and the principles of adaptive management. Keywords: sustainable, system, management, enterprise, model, function, purpose, uncertainty.

FCTC ratification, smoking prevalence, and GDP per capita: lessons for Indonesia and the rest of the world

BackgroundIndonesia’s stagnated progress towards tobacco control could be addressed through the implementation of a comprehensive national framework, such as the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC). However, national tobacco industry supporters argue that accepting the FCTC will have negative economic implications for the country. These arguments have, thus far, discouraged the Indonesian government from ratifying the FCTC. Drawing from an analysis of the impact of the FCTC on other countries’ smoking rates and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, this study offers empirical evidence against industry arguments concerning the potential negative economic impacts of FCTC adoption. This study applies a two stage least square estimation strategy to unbalanced panel data at country level. In the first stage we estimate the impact of FCTC ratification on smoking rates, and in the second step, we estimate the influence of smoking activity on macroeconomic performance.ResultsThe result of this study shows that FCTC ratification has a negative impact on a country’s smoking prevalence. While FCTC ratification positively correlates with reduced smoking prevalence, a decline in smoking prevalence is not related to a decline in GDP per capita.ConclusionsThe results of this study shows that FCTC ratification, which can be an important driver for more effective tobacco control, does not necessarily have a negative impact on the economy. Instead, FCTC ratification may be beneficial for both health and economic outcomes, as it provides comprehensive guidance for reducing smoking prevalence that take into account social and economic factors.

Impact of the government size on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries

The Keynesian theory states that economic growth is positively affected by government spending, while Classical theory states that economic growth is negatively affected by government spending, as is stated by neoclassical public choice theorists (Nyasha & Odhiambo, 2019). Based on these theories, many authors have carried out research on the impact of economic freedom on economic growth by analyzing various empirical cases. Bergh and Karlsson (2010) with the findings from his paper confirmed that the countries with the highest government size have an elevated growth in the globalization index of KOF and the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the government size impact on the growth of the economy in the Western Balkan in the time period 2000–2017 according to Fraser Institute’s data, incorporating the following econometric models: fixed and random effects, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), and Hausman-Taylor IV. With these models, this paper analyzes a government size and its components: government enterprises and investment, government consumption, transfers, and subsidies. The results illustrate a relationship between the size of the government and the growth of the economy in the Western Balkans that is positive. 1% increase in government size affects 0.29% gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita. According to the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable, 1% growth of government consumption is affected by 0.69% the decline in GDP per capita. The growth rate of transfers and subsidies affects 0.17% of GDP growth per capita and 1% of government enterprises and investment affects 0.54% GDP growth per capita.

ПОДХОДЫ К ВОПРОСАМ СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЯ МЕР СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ ПОДДЕРЖКИ НА ОСНОВЕ ПРИНЦИПА АДРЕСНОСТИ И ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ КРИТЕРИЕВ НУЖДАЕМОСТИ

The forecast of Russia's socio-economic development for 2022 and the planning period of 2023 and 2024 shows that the decline in gross domestic product in subsequent years may be significant (estimated to be up to 10-12%). This does not reduce the relevance of improving social support measures based on the principle of targeting. The article discusses changes in approaches to the provision of social support measures based on the principle of targeting.

Measuring the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the UK’s Leisure and Sport during the 2020 Lockdown

This research evaluates the effect of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic on sport Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer expenditure in the leisure sector in the United Kingdom (UK). The leisure sector is divided into leisure at home and away from home, examining in this way the different patterns that emerged because of the national lockdown in 2020. The effect on sport GDP is examined using the Office for National Statistics (ONS) surveys and the UK Sport Satellite Account (SSA). The study found that, because of its reliance on human contact, sport GDP is likely to decline by more than twice the rate of the overall economy. Furthermore, this finding is consistent with the 2020 consumer expenditure on leisure that shows increases in spending on home leisure but also a huge decline in spending on out-of-home entertainment. The decline in GDP is extremely likely to put pressure on profit margins and hence threaten the survival of private enterprises, raising issues of sustainability under conditions of a pandemic. Increases in long-term public funding for reducing sport inequalities should be considered along with short-term relief packages for the sport sector. Additional policy suggestions are offered to address these issues.

Вихід економіки країни зі спаду на стабільне зростання

Since 2008 the economies of highly developed countries have not been able to get out of the financial crisis in twelve years, and have been in a state of depression and teetered on the brink of deflation. This crisis coincided in 2020 with the onset of the global recession in real gross domestic product (GDP) caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The state of the economy in Ukraine requires looking for ways and tools to overcome the crisis in the decline in GDP in the face of population decline and the ongoing global crisis. The growth of the Ukrainian economy is constrained by the tax burden, external debt and insufficient investment in productive capital. To ensure the stable development of the country’s economy, government regulation of the expanded reproduction of capital, which is available and which works in the manufacturing sector, is necessary. The main source of investment in the manufacturing sector is depreciation deductions from capital involved in production. With investments that are less than depreciation, only a narrowed reproduction of capital is possible, that is, capital is consumed. Anyone who uses depreciation deductions for other purposes destroys their own production. Investments in excess of depreciation charges are possible if there is a net investment. The government should regulate net investment at the rate of net income through incentive taxation. The capital that operates in the manufacturing sector can be regulated by the coefficient of consumer demand through existing incentives. With expanded reproduction of capital, inflationary self-regulation of market equilibrium through the central bank’s money circulation system and the rate of tax on production income, which is not more than the optimal rate, ensure constant growth of real GDP. Achieving the goal of overcoming the recession with the subsequent stable growth of GDP is possible with a state policy based on the current laws of the economy and private property rights.