Decarbonization Of Electricity Research Articles

Decarbonizing the electricity sector using terawatt-scale interconnected photovoltaic power grids to meet the climate goals: A comprehensive review and a strategic roadmap

High scalability and quick deployability of solar photovoltaic (PV) make it an ideal candidate for rapid decarbonization of electricity. The typical SPV generation profile and power grids designed for conventional power plants (PP) are the major obstacles to maximizing SPV utilization. While energy storage systems (ESS) are often deemed critical, scalable ESS are site-limited, highly dependent on rare-earth elements, and either have higher embodied energy and emissions or low round-trip efficiencies. This manuscript demonstrates that by strategically interconnecting SPV power plants longitudinally, PV can meet base load demands and extend availability beyond peak-solar hours, thereby reducing the need for ESS and replacing existing carbon-intensive electricity infrastructure. It is demonstrated by modelling two 12 GW longitudinally separated transmission lines interconnecting SPVPPs situated 40° (case-1) and 90° (case-2) apart can provide PV electricity beyond solar hours for 4.69 and 7.33 equivalent hours (daily average), respectively. For cases 1 and 2, the lithium battery-ESS route can result in 4.76 and 3.35 times more carbon emissions and cost 4.23 and 2.98 times more than the transmission route, respectively, for providing the same energy over the transmission line's 40-year lifespan. Technologies such as multi-terminal ultra-high-voltage-DC grids, hybrid superconductive cables, new semiconductor materials for PV and energy systems, etc. are explored for the globally interconnected solar grid. Findings suggest 90 TWp of PV capacity can supply a significant portion of world's energy demand by 2050. This study outlines a comprehensive approach to build a sustainable and interconnected global solar energy infrastructure that aligns with climate objectives.

Are BSR Municipalities on Track for Energy Transition?

Climate neutrality targets and the growing decentralization of energy systems have substantially increased the role of municipalities in global energy transition. However, global shifts and national government demands have often left local public authorities unprepared to face numerous challenges related to local space planning, cost-effective integration, and decarbonization of electricity, heating, industry, and mobility. Therefore, there is a need to investigate the current state of municipal energy transition and analyze how municipalities face climate neutrality target achievement. This study conducts an integrated energy sustainability assessment to investigate the progress of the energy transition in six municipalities in the Baltic Sea region. A benchmarking approach is applied to compare the different levels of energy efficiency and decarbonization in the municipalities. The study reveals different energy consumption patterns of municipal buildings, which are influenced by various factors such as the type of building (educational, office, social facilities, etc.), the heat source (district heating or individual local heat source) and the energy efficiency management practices applied. In addition, a different trend in the installation of renewable energy capacity can be observed in municipalities in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden. The study analyses the overall gap between the production and consumption of renewable energy to determine the storage potential and the role in the local energy transitions. The findings of this study highlight the key cornerstones in the current state of municipal energy transition, setting a foundation for better and more effective energy policy planning at national and local scales.

Geothermal power generation potential in the United States by 2050

Geothermal energy provides a dispatchable source of carbon-free electricity that can balance the output of variable resources. However, geothermal provides just 3.7 gigawatts (GW e ) ( < 1%) of electricity in the United States today, mostly from hydrothermal resources that are geographically constrained. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which extract heat from deep rock, could be applicable in more locations. However, baseline levels and potential trends in EGS costs have been insufficiently characterized by previous studies. Here, we assess geothermal penetration potential by using as baseline the latest available data on drilling costs from three costing models to create updated estimates of costs and performance. We input those estimates along with various scenarios of cost trends, emissions policies, and electricity demand into the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to simulate electricity generation in the United States through 2050. The scarcity of hydrothermal resources limits deployments to no more than 18 GW e across our scenarios. EGS is more costly than hydrothermal for now, but it has greater potential to scale nationwide. Thus, future deployments of EGS depend strongly on projected cost reductions and emissions policies. In scenarios with moderate ( < 50%) reductions in costs by 2050, very little EGS is likely to be built, since wind and solar with storage provide lower-cost electricity. However, over 70% cost reductions from our updated baseline would make geothermal the least-cost carbon-free dispatchable resource. Under those cost trends, we project that 3 GW e of EGS would be built by 2050 under existing policies, 11 GW e with a 95% decarbonization policy, and 152 GW e if full decarbonization of electricity is mandated. Most geothermal would likely first be built in western states with the steepest subsurface temperature gradients, although mandates for full decarbonization could drive it to be deployed in other states.

Transforming Turkish electricity system in the context of circular economy and green deal: impacts on steel and agricultural production

ABSTRACT Two important but conflicting goals in Turkey’s energy policy have been ensuring energy security through increased indigenous energy resource utilization and meeting the 2053 net zero emission commitment. Based on this, this work explores emission mitigation pathways for Turkey’s electricity system through circularity approaches of CO2 utilization and framework material recycling (FMR). Using mathematical models, eight life cycle impact potentials are evaluated including global warming potential (GWP). The extended impact on steel and agricultural production was also examined in the Green Deal context. The circularity approaches investigated showed that the GWP of Turkey’s wind, solar, and lignite energy sources reduce from the base values of 7.3 gCO2eq./kWh, 29.5 gCO2eq./kWh and 1130 gCO2eq./kWh to 2.72 gCO2eq./kWh, 21.08 gCO2eq./kWh and 241.26 gCO2eq./kWh, respectively. Fifty percent recycling ratio is also determined as the optimum for CO2 utilization and FMR. With this ratio, 21.84% CO2 emission reduction corresponding to 0.083 GT annual CO2 savings is achieved in the Turkish electricity mix. The decarbonization of electricity results in 25.0% and 27.0% GWP impact reductions in the agricultural and steel sectors, respectively. Hence, the decarbonization of electricity mix can significantly ease the negative impacts of the Green Deal on Turkey’s economy. Additionally, promoting and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity mix can further enhance these environmental benefits.

The role of regional renewable energy integration in electricity decarbonization—A case study of Japan

Decarbonization strategies depend critically on the integration of region-specific renewable energy and social acceptance, yet their roles still need to be clarified. This study designs a regional-integrated electricity system and assesses the impact of regional decisions associated with renewable energy on cost-effective national decarbonization, using Japan as a case study owing to its active engagement in regional decarbonization. A high spatial resolution renewable electricity system model that explicitly considers all 1741 Japanese municipalities and employs a hierarchical optimization approach is developed. Based on the model, the opportunity cost of limiting renewable energy development is quantified for 30 representative municipalities. The results highlight that restrictions on municipal renewable energy can increase annual system costs by hundreds of millions of euros and national electricity costs by up to 0.4%, although it varies by region and energy source. This suggests that widespread opposition to renewables could be a significant barrier to cost-effective decarbonization. However, the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) tends to be slight. In conclusion, investments in social acceptance of region-specific renewables can minimize opportunity losses and reduce system costs. Nonetheless, relocating the project to another region is possibly more cost-effective for solar PV.

Tackling fuel poverty and decarbonisation in a distributed heating system through a three-layer whole system approach

Residential heating displays huge decarbonisation potential towards Net-Zero. The complexity of heating system and socio-economic system appeals for a systematic design to avoid exacerbating fuel poverty. This study develops a three-layer heat-for-all model which integrates building stocks analysis, distributed heating system optimisation, economic and environmental impacts simulation to tackle heating decarbonisation and fuel poverty simultaneously. This whole system model is a powerful decision support tool that can help conceive heating decarbonisation strategies for wider regions and countries. More than 400,000 scenarios are created, considering the effects of future policy schemes (No Grant, Business as Usual, Proposed), minimum emission reduction target, carbon intensity of grid, future natural gas, and electricity prices. Results show that optimised heating system decarbonisation plan heavily relies on future energy prices. In the case study, only air source heat pumps are chosen when electricity price is lower than 3 times gas price. Secondly, investment in heating system could stimulate the greenhouse gas emission of whole supply chain, hedging the emission reduction achieved in heating system. This further reveals that life cycle thinking is imperative in GHG emission mitigation. Thirdly, electricity decarbonisation plays a vital role in achieving whole system emission reduction. The grid carbon intensity reduction makes substantial contribution to the emission reduction of heating system and industry system. In tackling fuel poverty, it's worth noticing that the fuel poverty is aggravated with more grant support under certain scenarios, since current policy schemes focus on capital investment in heating system but overlook the increased energy bills. It appeals for a more comprehensive policy design considering all stakeholders.

A prospective life cycle assessment of global ammonia decarbonisation scenarios

A prospective life cycle assessment was performed for global ammonia production across 26 regions from 2020 to 2050. The analysis was based on the IEA Ammonia Roadmap and IMAGE electricity scenarios model for three climate scenarios related to a mean surface temperature increase of 3.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C by 2100. Combining these models with a global perspective and new life cycle inventories improves ammonia's robustness, quality, and applicability in prospective life cycle assessments. It reveals that complete decarbonisation of the ammonia industry by 2050 is unlikely from a life cycle perspective because of residual emissions in the supply chain, even in the most ambitious scenario. However, strong policies in the 1.5 °C scenario could significantly reduce climate impacts by up to 70% per kilogram of ammonia. The cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from the ammonia supply chain between 2020 and 2050 are estimated at 24, 21, and 15 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent for the 3.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C scenarios, respectively. The paper examines challenges in achieving these scenarios, noting that electrolysis-based (yellow) ammonia, contingent on electricity decarbonisation, offers a cleaner production pathway. However, achieving significant GHG reductions is complex, requiring advancements in technologies with lower readiness, like carbon capture and storage and methane pyrolysis. The study also discusses limitations such as the need to reduce urea demand, potential growth in ammonia as a fuel, reliance on CO2 transport and storage, expansion of renewable energy, raw material scarcity, and the longevity of existing plants. It highlights potential shifts in environmental impacts, such as increased land, metal, and mineral use in scenarios with growing renewable electricity and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Temporally dynamic environmental impact assessment of a building stock: Coupling MFA and LCA

In this study, MFA and LCA are coupled in a prospective analysis of the environmental impact of a building stock at a Danish university campus. The existing buildings are mapped and future growth is identified to create a dynamic LCA inventory. The prospective model is applied in a case study to determine the accumulated environmental impacts associated with the growth of the campus building stock from 2023 to 2050.The findings indicate that the national decarbonization of electricity and heat supply from 2023 to 2035 will deliver notable impact reductions, however the reduction in the overall impact of the building stock by 2050 will be counteracted by growth in new buildings and potential renovation activities. If decarbonization continues post-2035, impact will decrease for particularly global warming potential. The results allow identification of environmental impact hotspots, both spatially and temporally. This supports the development of mitigation strategies to reduce environmental impacts.

China's transportation decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A segment-mode analysis using integrated modelling

China aims to peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Currently, 9% of China's CO2 emissions come from the transportation sector. Transportation decarbonization is important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. By representing the transportation sector with nine segments and 20 modes in Global Change Analysis Model, this study explores China's transportation decarbonization and potential role of electricity and hydrogen at the segment-mode level under three illustrative scenarios – policy scenario (PS), 2060 carbon-neutrality scenario (CN60), and 2050 carbon-neutrality scenario (CN50). The PS reflects the continuation of current low-carbon policies and trends, while the CN60 and the CN50 represent China's pursuit of net-zero emissions before 2060 and 2050, respectively. Results in the PS show a gradual saturation of service demand and an increasingly efficient modal structure for China's future transportation. Compared to the PS, the two carbon neutrality scenarios specifically emphasize the importance of decarbonizing transportation fuel structure after 2030. In the CN60, China's transportation emissions peak in 2035 and fall to 0.36 GtCO2 in 2050; electricity and hydrogen provide 43% and 12% of transportation energy in 2050, respectively. The CN50 features further penetration of low-carbon fuels to reduce transportation carbon intensity, with transportation emissions peaking in 2030 and declining to only 0.21 GtCO2 in 2050. In 2050 of the CN50, the share of electricity and hydrogen in China's transportation energy increases to 53% and 16%, respectively, with near-zero emissions being achieved in urban, rural and business passenger segments, as well as in car and bus; hydrogen provides 17% and 26% of China's airplane and ship energy consumption, respectively.

Did electrification of the building sector achieve carbon mitigation? A provincial retrospection in China

Electrification of end-use energy consuming sectors is becoming a widespread choice to combat climate change, yet the decarbonization of electricity determines the quality of carbon emissions reductions from electrification. This study evaluates the changes in carbon emissions from building operations due to electrification in China's 30 provinces over the period 2004–2020. Considering electricity decarbonization, electricity consumption, population and floor area, an assessment framework for carbon emissions reductions from building electrification has been built by Kaya-LMDI method. The results show that (1) The promotion of building electrification causes an increase of approximately 46.88 MtCO2 over the period 2004–2020. The urban residential buildings contribute the largest share, about 54.78%; (2) Almost half of the provinces have failed to achieve carbon emissions reductions with promotion of building electrification; (3) The change in carbon emissions caused by the promotion of building electrification shows a clustering effect in space, with the northern region characterized by high-high clusters and the southern region by low-low clusters. In addition, this study reviews the strategy for power decarbonization and building electrification in China. The overall strategy for building electrification is to accelerate the proportion of electricity consumption in existing buildings and to promote the electrification of new public buildings across the board. Overall, this study provides a reference for other economies and end-use energy sectors to evaluate electrification for carbon emissions reductions, and provides insights and strategies for policy makers on the promotion of building electrification.

Virtual power plant optimal operation considering renewable energy uncertainty

An optimal operation model for a virtual power plant (VPP) is developed to promote the decarbonization of electricity as well as to enable the efficient grid integration of distributed power sources and electric vehicles. The model considers the uncertainty of renewable energy and the environmental punishment of gas turbines to achieve coordinated optimization of distributed resources within the VPP. The case demonstrates the utility of the model.

Chinese electricity-focused input-output dataset with detailed coal power and alternative energy for 2018

The electricity-focused input-output model is a popular approach for analysing the socio-economic and environmental impacts of electricity decarbonisation policies; however, it cannot be built directly owing to a lack of data on electricity technology. Here, we provide the Chinese electricity-focused input-output dataset, which characterises the production and distribution of 14 electricity subsectors. Based on the official input-output table for China in 2018, we disaggregate the original electricity sector by referring to macro data from statistics departments and our micro data on the unit-level cost information of China’s coal power. This is China’s most recent electricity-focused input-output dataset, featuring novel improvements in sub-electricity identification, especially mapping six detailed coal power sources and six alternative power sources. The Chinese electricity-focused input-output dataset can be used as the baseline for extensive satellite account compilation, allowing for a variety of in-depth studies on footprint analysis and policy simulations related to China’s electricity transition.

Modelling governance for a successful electricity sector decarbonisation

Early and deep electricity decarbonisation is critical to achieve the overall energy transition target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper extends an electricity agent based model to capture the inter-dependence of consistent governance with underpinning societal pressure and resultant investment strategies. Results show only with the strongest level of governance – reflected in the range of national/local policy mechanisms used, and their strength/timing when interim targets are met/missed – can near-zero electricity emissions be met well before 2050. Strong governance can also ensure a stable electricity system, with consistent policies mitigating the intensity of any investment cycles. Strong governance entails higher capital investments, but these can deliver lower electricity prices in the long-term. And strong governance means that a successful electricity decarbonisation does not need to be built solely on existing incumbents, but also via local cooperatives to aggregate household financing and demand side management. However, with inconsistent governance, a vicious cycle ensues with a weak rationale to enact ambitious policies at both the local and national levels, significant inertia in new electricity investments, and hence “failure” scenarios of decarbonisation. This challenges the prior findings of optimistic achievement of electricity decarbonisation scenarios by standard techno-economic optimisation models.

Economic and environmental prioritisation of potential retrofitting interventions in electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Application to a heritage building used as offices

Economic and environmental prioritisation of potential retrofitting interventions in electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Application to a heritage building used as offices

Are future recycling benefits misleading? Prospective life cycle assessment of lithium‐ion batteries

AbstractLife cycle assessment (LCA) quantifies the whole‐life environmental impacts of products and is essential for helping policymakers and manufacturers transition toward sustainable practices. However, typical LCA estimates future recycling benefits as if it happens today. For long‐lived products such as lithium‐ion batteries, this may be misleading since there is a considerable time gap between production and recycling. To explore this temporal mismatch problem, we apply future electricity scenarios from an integrated assessment model—IMAGE—using “premise” in Brightway2 to conduct a prospective LCA (pLCA) on the global warming potential of six battery chemistries and four recycling routes. We find that by 2050, electricity decarbonization under an RCP2.6 scenario mitigates production impacts by 57%, so to reach zero‐carbon batteries it is important to decarbonize upstream heat, fuels, and direct emissions. For the best battery recycling case, data for 2020 gives a net recycling benefit of −22 kg CO2e kWh−1 which reduces the net impact of production and recycling from 71 to 49 kg CO2e kWh−1. However, for recycling in 2040 with decarbonized electricity, net recycling benefits would be nearly 75% lower (−6 kg CO2e kWh−1), giving a net impact of 65 kg CO2e kWh−1. This is because materials recycled in the future substitute lower‐impact processes due to expected electricity decarbonization. Hence, more focus should be placed on mitigating production impacts today instead of relying on future recycling. These findings demonstrate the importance of pLCA in tackling problems such as temporal mismatch that are difficult to capture in typical LCA.

The city race to carbon neutrality; a realistic dream or a chimera?

This paper examines whether carbon neutrality of a city like Athens could be an achievable target, concentrating on energy induced greenhouse gas emissions. The main focus is on buildings, but the trends in transport are also investigated. Taking into consideration these examined trends, emphasis is given on technologies that have been put forward for the decarbonisation of cities, such as energy savings and electrification of all energy consuming activities. The incorporation of these technologies is examined within a time frame of approximately 30 years, in order to investigate how, with which technologies and synergies the city can reach carbon neutrality by 2050, taking into account the effect of the undergoing energy crisis. In these projections, various scenarios are examined, taking into consideration not only the effect of national plans for the decarbonisation of electricity production, but also the current energy crisis, which might lead to an increase in the carbon footprint of electricity. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, regarding the decarbonisation of electricity, energy demand trends, energy costs that lead to the rise of energy poverty within the city are investigated. Conclusions are drawn on the synergies that must take place so that energy efficiency technologies that have been put forward can be effective for the transformation of Athenian buildings and activities into carbon neutral ones, or can lead to the failure of such a goal.

The role of electricity market design for energy storage in cost-efficient decarbonization

The role of electricity market design for energy storage in cost-efficient decarbonization

The status and improvement opportunities towards carbon neutrality of a university campus in China: A case study on energy transition and innovation perspectives

In response to China's commitment to meet carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, universities are seeking to assess and minimize their greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, a new methodology based on LEAP and LCA was developed to assess the carbon footprint of a medium-sized university campus in eastern China. The emission sources consider six areas: electricity, fuel, transportation, water, waste, and consumption of other materials. The results showed that the campus emitted about 13,877 tonnes of CO2-eq in 2020. In particular, electricity consumption contributed about 77% of the total CO2-eq emissions on campus, while green cover and material recycling resulted in a negative emission of 404.4 tonnes of CO2-eq. In addition, seven common mitigation strategies were proposed to reduce the campus carbon footprint, and budgets would influence the implementation time. It was found that the seven proposed carbon reduction measures could reduce emissions by 97% in 2060, with decarbonisation of electricity being the largest contributor, leading to an emissions reduction of 64.7%. In addition, carbon offsetting is needed to achieve a carbon-neutral campus by 2060.

Techno-economic analysis of a multi-energy system for the co-production of green hydrogen, renewable electricity and heat

Renewable Multi-Energy Systems (MESs) are receiving growing attention since they represent a key step towards the decarbonization of electricity, thermal and transport sectors. This paper aims to investigate, from techno-economic perspectives, the performances of an off-grid MES that is designed for satisfying i) the electric and thermal loads of industrial utilities and ii) the energy requirements of novel refueling stations, able to supply electricity for battery electric vehicles fast charging and hydrogen for fuel cell electric vehicles. Wind power is used to meet the electric energy load and the hydrogen demand, while the thermal load is covered by burning biogas and by recovering useful heat inside the system. Two MES configurations, differing in terms of energy storage systems, have been sized by applying an optimization procedure, based on the minimization of the Net Present Cost (NPC), performed by using HOMER Pro software. The annual operations of the MES configurations have been analyzed and the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE), of hydrogen (LCOH) and of thermal energy (LCOT) have been estimated by considering the share of each produced energy stream with respect to the total energy output (or the energy served to the utilities). Results highlighted that the co-production of energy streams allows to significantly reduce their levelized costs with values that are in the range of 0.048–0.054 $/kWh (LCOE), 3.14–3.49 $/kg (LCOH) and 0.037–0.048 $/kWh (LCOT). These costs can be further reduced by connecting the MES to the grid and by delivering the excess of the electricity produced by the renewable source (on-grid configuration).

An Integrated Assessment Model for comparing electricity decarbonisation scenarios: The case for Spain

The decarbonisation of electricity supply poses a major milestone in the mitigation of climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide a relevant instrument for the quantification and comparison of the economic and environmental impacts of various electricity decarbonisation scenarios, despite having rarely been applied to a national context. In this paper, an IAM able to calculate such impacts on the electricity sector in Spain is presented. Developed using the latest IAM modelling literature, the proposed model is able to estimate changes in temperature, climate-induced economic losses, and investment needs for climate mitigation corresponding to a range of electricity decarbonisation scenarios on a time horizon to 2050. The findings show that scenarios that undertake deeper and earlier cuts in CO2 emissions from electricity generation would achieve better welfare results, and that further reliance on fossil fuels would imply higher costs than the investment needed for renewable energy deployment in Spain. The findings constitute an insight towards the formulation of policies that address the decarbonisation of the Spanish electricity supply.