Did electrification of the building sector achieve carbon mitigation? A provincial retrospection in China

Abstract

Electrification of end-use energy consuming sectors is becoming a widespread choice to combat climate change, yet the decarbonization of electricity determines the quality of carbon emissions reductions from electrification. This study evaluates the changes in carbon emissions from building operations due to electrification in China's 30 provinces over the period 2004–2020. Considering electricity decarbonization, electricity consumption, population and floor area, an assessment framework for carbon emissions reductions from building electrification has been built by Kaya-LMDI method. The results show that (1) The promotion of building electrification causes an increase of approximately 46.88 MtCO2 over the period 2004–2020. The urban residential buildings contribute the largest share, about 54.78%; (2) Almost half of the provinces have failed to achieve carbon emissions reductions with promotion of building electrification; (3) The change in carbon emissions caused by the promotion of building electrification shows a clustering effect in space, with the northern region characterized by high-high clusters and the southern region by low-low clusters. In addition, this study reviews the strategy for power decarbonization and building electrification in China. The overall strategy for building electrification is to accelerate the proportion of electricity consumption in existing buildings and to promote the electrification of new public buildings across the board. Overall, this study provides a reference for other economies and end-use energy sectors to evaluate electrification for carbon emissions reductions, and provides insights and strategies for policy makers on the promotion of building electrification.