Temporally dynamic environmental impact assessment of a building stock: Coupling MFA and LCA

Abstract

In this study, MFA and LCA are coupled in a prospective analysis of the environmental impact of a building stock at a Danish university campus. The existing buildings are mapped and future growth is identified to create a dynamic LCA inventory. The prospective model is applied in a case study to determine the accumulated environmental impacts associated with the growth of the campus building stock from 2023 to 2050.The findings indicate that the national decarbonization of electricity and heat supply from 2023 to 2035 will deliver notable impact reductions, however the reduction in the overall impact of the building stock by 2050 will be counteracted by growth in new buildings and potential renovation activities. If decarbonization continues post-2035, impact will decrease for particularly global warming potential. The results allow identification of environmental impact hotspots, both spatially and temporally. This supports the development of mitigation strategies to reduce environmental impacts.