Decadal-scale Trends Research Articles

Inlet-adjacent beach and shoreline variability at decadal scales

Beaches provide storm protection and economic benefit for coastal communities and also host important habitats for keystone species, especially in the state of Florida. However, sea level rise, coastal construction, and intensifying storms are resulting in coastal erosion, which often requires informed mitigation and management strategies. This study aims to explore decadal-scale trends in morphology change and shoreline variability of inlet-adjacent beaches in Jupiter, Florida. Data from three locations over a period of three decades were analyzed to determine volumetric and contour changes above the shoreline (0 m elevation) and across the entire profile. The largest variability in decadal morphology change was measured at beaches closest to Jupiter Inlet. Substantial shoreline and beach changes were also associated with periods of higher storm activity. Variability in storm events, nourishment trends, and longshore sediment transport also influenced decadal morphologic change. To best adapt to coastal change and develop comprehensive beach-inlet management plans, it is imperative to understand past trends of shoreline variability and beach-nearshore erosion and accretion patterns. Results of this study demonstrate an approach to elucidate decadal patterns in morphology changes and drivers of change.

Sources and long-term variability of carbon monoxide at Mount Kenya and in Nairobi

Abstract. Carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in the troposphere are decreasing globally, with Africa as an exception. Yet, the region is understudied, with a deficit of ground-based observations and highly uncertain CO emission inventories. This paper reports multiyear observational CO data from the Mt. Kenya Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station, as well as summertime CO isotope observations from both Mt. Kenya and Nairobi, Kenya. The CO variability at Mt. Kenya is characterized by slightly increased concentrations during dry periods and a strong influence of short-term pollution events. While some data gaps and differences in instrumentation complicate decadal-scale trend analysis, a small long-term increase is resolved. High-pollution events are consistent with isotopic signal from downwind savanna fires. The isotope fingerprint of CO in Nairobi indicates an overwhelming dominance (near 100 %) of primary emissions from fossil fuel combustion with implications for air pollution policy. In contrast, the isotope signature of CO intercepted at the large-footprint Mt. Kenya region suggests that at least 70 % is primary sourced, with a predominance likely from savanna fires in Africa. Taken together, this study provides quantitative constraints of primary vs. secondary CO in the eastern Africa region and in urban Nairobi, with implications for satellite-based emission inventories as well as for chemical transport and climate modeling.

Decadal scale trends in temperature, salinity, and sound speed in the Beaufort Sea since 1976

Profiles of conductivity and temperature as a function of depth (CTD) were collected in the Beaufort Sea during two U.S. Navy Ice Exercises in 2016, 2018, and 2020 (ICEXYY) in the month of March. The data show a significant departure from climatological values and significant variance at the interface between the Arctic Surface Layer (ASL) and the underlying Pacific Summer Water (PSW). Comparisons to older ICEX data collected over a 45 year period and to ice-tethered profiler (ITP) data since 2007 confirm both the subsurface warming trend and the variance at the ASL-PSW interface. Statistical analysis reveals a 0.4 degreeCelsius per decade increase in the near-surface temperature maximum (NSTM) near 75 m, which establishes two persistent acoustic propagation features beginning in the year 2000—a near-surface acoustic duct above 50 m and a subsurface acoustic duct, known as the Beaufort Lens, centered on 150 m water depth.

The Significant Contribution of Small-Sized and Spherical Aerosol Particles to the Decreasing Trend in Total Aerosol Optical Depth over Land from 2003 to 2018

The optical and microphysical properties of aerosols remain one of the greatest uncertainties associated with evaluating the climate forcing attributed to aerosols. Although the trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD) at global and regional scales have been widely examined, little attention has been paid to the trends in type-dependent AODs related to aerosol particle properties. Here, using the aerosol optical component dataset from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument, we investigate decadal-scale trends in total aerosol loading as well as AODs for five aerosol components by particle size and morphology during 2003–2018 over land. Relationships between the total AOD (TAOD) trends and type-dependent AOD changes were examined, and the relative contribution of each type-dependent AOD to the overall TAOD trends was quantified. By dividing the TAOD values into four different aerosol pollution levels (APLs) with splits at 0.15, 0.40, and 0.80, we further explored the relationships between TAOD changes and interannual variations in the frequency-of-occurrences (FoOs) of these APLs. Long-term trends in FoOs in the different APLs show that there was a significant improvement in air quality between 2003 and 2018 in most land areas, except South Asia, corresponding to a shift from lightly polluted to clean conditions. However, the effects of different APLs on TAOD changes are regionally dependent and their extent of correlation varied spatially. Moreover, we observed that the annual mean TAOD has decreased by 0.47%·a−1 over land since 2003 (P < 0.05). This significant reduction was mainly attributed to the continued reduction in small-sized (< 0.7 mm diameter) AOD (SAOD) (−0.74%·a−1) and spherical AOD (SPAOD) (−0.46%·a−1). Statistical analysis shows that SAOD and SPAOD respectively accounted for 57.5% and 89.6% of the TAOD, but contributed 82.6% and 90.4% of the trend in TAOD. Our study suggests that small-sized and spherical aerosols composed of sulfate, organic matter, and black carbon play a dominant role in determining interannual variability in land TAOD.

Urbanization drives geographically heterogeneous freshwater salinization in the northeastern United States.

Rising trends in freshwater salinity, collectively termed the Freshwater Salinization Syndrome (FSS), constitute a global environmental concern. Given that the FSS has been observed in diverse settings, key questions regarding the causes, trend magnitudes, and consequences remain. Prior work hypothesized that FSS is driven by state factors, such as human-centered land use change, geology, and climate. Here, we identify the fundamental overriding factors driving FSS within the northeastern United States and quantify the diversity of FSS severity within the region. Specifically, we analyzed decadal-scale trends in specific conductance (a salinity proxy) for 333 lotic sites over four decades. Next, we quantified potential variables driving the rising or falling trends, including impervious surface cover (ISC), winter temperature and precipitation, watershed size, and ambient conductance. Temperature and ISC were considered the most likely candidates for predicting FSS severity because road salts have previously emerged as the fundamental regional driver. Most (62.5%) sites exhibited patterns of significantly increasing conductance; thus, the overall regional state reflects advancing FSS. However, others exhibited an absence of change (28.8%) or decreasing values (8.7%), and slope magnitude did change with latitude. Linear modeling demonstrated that two variables-ISC and watershed size-constitute the best predictors of long-term conductance trends and that an intercept not significantly different than zero suggests that the FSS does not reign in the absence of urbanization. We also detected areas with consistently decreasing trends despite moderate ISC. Therefore, within the region, advancing urbanization causes the typical condition of advancing FSS, but heterogeneity also exists.

Measuring Temperature in Coral Reef Environments: Experience, Lessons, and Results from Palau

Sea surface temperature, determined remotely by satellite (SSST), measures only the thin “skin” of the ocean but is widely used to quantify the thermal regimes on coral reefs across the globe. In situ measurements of temperature complements global satellite sea surface temperature with more accurate measurements at specific locations/depths on reefs and more detailed data. In 1999, an in situ temperature-monitoring network was started in the Republic of Palau after the 1998 coral bleaching event. Over two decades the network has grown to 70+ stations and 150+ instruments covering a 700 km wide geographic swath of the western Pacific dominated by multiple oceanic currents. The specific instruments used, depths, sampling intervals, precision, and accuracy are considered with two goals: to provide comprehensive general coverage to inform global considerations of temperature patterns/changes and to document the thermal dynamics of many specific habitats found within a highly diverse tropical marine location. Short-term in situ temperature monitoring may not capture broad patterns, particularly with regard to El Niño/La Niña cycles that produce extreme differences. Sampling over two decades has documented large T signals often invisible to SSST from (1) internal waves on time scales of minutes to hours, (2) El Niño on time scales of weeks to years, and (3) decadal-scale trends of +0.2 °C per decade. Network data have been used to create a regression model with SSST and sea surface height (SSH) capable of predicting depth-varying thermal stress. The large temporal, horizontal, and vertical variability noted by the network has further implications for thermal stress on the reef. There is a dearth of definitive thermal information for most coral reef habitats, which undermines the ability to interpret biological events from the most basic physical perspective.

Lake Sediments Reveal Large Variations in Flood Frequency Over the Last 6,500 Years in South-Western Norway

Lake sediments can retain imprints of past floods, enabling reconstructions that span well beyond instrumental time series. Time series covering thousands of years can document the natural range of flood variability, which is critical for understanding the potential causality between changing flood patterns and climate. Here, we analyzed sediments from Lake Sandvinvatnet in southwest Norway. Detailed environmental magnetic analyses of an 830cm-long sediment core covering the last 6,500 years captured decadal scale trends in local flood frequency. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) assessments were carried out both on split cores and individual samples to track variability in sedimentary influx; the ratios of MS measured at 77 K and 293 K (MS ratios) provided information on potential changes in source regions. The results suggested that sediments from the Buerdalen valley dominate the signal in the core, and the amount of ferromagnetic (high MS) carriers increases during flood events. These carriers were assumed to be transported from slope deposits in Buerdalen during rainstorm-triggered flood events. The reconstructed flood frequency, based on sediment layers with ferromagnetic carriers, showed high variability over the past 6,500 years, and the finding was validated by overlapping with known historical floods in the area. We observed periods with a high frequency of extreme floods (4100-3140 cal. yr BP) compared with intervals with a few or no extreme floods (6050-4100 cal. yr BP). Floods in this region are commonly a result of intense rain events during fall and snow and glacial melt during late spring and summer. The systematic frequency changes during the past 6,500 years suggest a certain persistency in the processes that cause floods, where mean trends in summer temperature and precipitation may have played a role.

Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Future Ocean Wave Power Potential: A Case Study from the Indian Ocean

This study investigates the impacts of global climate change on the future wave power potential, taking Sri Lanka as a case study from the northern Indian Ocean. The geographical location of Sri Lanka, which receives long-distance swell waves generated in the Southern Indian Ocean, favors wave energy-harvesting. Waves projected by a numerical wave model developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore Waves (SWAN) wave model, which is forced by atmospheric forcings generated by an Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) within two time slices that represent “present” and “future” (end of century) wave climates, are used to evaluate and compare present and future wave power potential around Sri Lanka. The results reveal that there will be a 12–20% reduction in average available wave power along the south-west and south-east coasts of Sri Lanka in future. This reduction is due mainly to changes to the tropical south-west monsoon system because of global climate change. The available wave power resource attributed to swell wave component remains largely unchanged. Although a detailed analysis of monthly and annual average wave power under both “present” and “future” climates reveals a strong seasonal and some degree of inter-annual variability of wave power, a notable decadal-scale trend of variability is not visible during the simulated 25-year periods. Finally, the results reveal that the wave power attributed to swell waves are very stable over the long term.

Stable but fragile: long-term dynamics of arctic benthic macrofauna in Baydaratskaya Bay (the Kara Sea)

Climate change and direct impacts of human activity are often considered among the main drivers of ecosystem dynamics; however, their relative importance for high-Arctic marine systems is not clearly understood. The Baydaratskaya Bay (southwestern part of the Kara Sea) was not subject to any human activity until 2011, when the construction of the underwater portion of a gas pipeline began; thus, it is a good place to investigate this issue. We used data on the macrobenthos from 1945 to 2013 to assess temporal variability and reveal either decadal-scale trends or construction impacts on the ecosystem. Until 2013, no evidence of long-term changes was detected in biomass, diversity, species composition, functional structure, and biogeographic attributes of the fauna. The ecological status was permanently evaluated as undisturbed. In 2013, however, an extensive shift occurred in the deep-sea area close to the pipeline trench. Benthic biomass and diversity decreased abruptly; while total abundance increased. The functional structure changed. Large bivalves almost completely disappeared, abundance of gastropods and amphipods dropped sharply, while the abundance of small opportunistic polychaetes increased abruptly. Benthic quality assessment indices indicated the deterioration of the community. The most likely reason for such catastrophic changes was the direct impact of dredging and dumping of sediments during pipeline burial from 2012 to 2013. We conclude that the benthic macrofauna in Baydaratskaya Bay has remained relatively stable over the last several decades without any signs of climate-driven borealization. Recent human activity, however, caused local but rapid and strong response, indicating the high sensitivity and vulnerability of this ecosystem.

Decadal-Scale Acidification Trends in Adjacent North Carolina Estuaries: Competing Role of Anthropogenic CO2 and Riverine Alkalinity Loads

Decadal-scale pH trends for the open ocean are largely monotonic and controlled by anthropogenic CO2 invasion. In estuaries, though, such long-term pH trends are often obscured by a variety of other factors, including changes in net metabolism, temperature, estuarine mixing, and riverine hydrogeochemistry. In this study, we mine an extensive biogeochemical database in two North Carolina estuaries, the Neuse River estuary (NeuseRE) and New River estuary (NewRE), in an effort to deconvolute decadal-scale trends in pH and associated processes. By applying a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), we show that temporal changes in NewRE pH were insignificant, while pH decreased significantly throughout much of the NeuseRE. In both estuaries, variations in pH were accompanied by increasing river discharge, and were independent of rising temperature. Decreases in bottom-water pH in the NeuseRE coincided with elevated primary production in surface waters, highlighting the importance of eutrophication on long-term acidification trends. Next, we used a simple mixing model to illustrate the impact of changing river discharge on estuarine carbonate chemistry. We found that increased riverine alkalinity loads to the NewRE likely buffered the impact of CO2-intrusion-induced acidification. In the NeuseRE, however, elevated dissolved inorganic carbon loads further decreased the buffering capacity, exacerbating the effects of CO2-intrusion-driven acidification. Taken together, the findings of this study show that future trajectories in estuarine pH will be shaped by complex interactions among global-scale changes in climate, regional-scale changes in precipitation patterns, and local-scale changes in estuarine biogeochemistry.

Fluctuations in Arctic sea-ice extent: comparing observations and climate models.

The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea-ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multifractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to biannual time scales the ice extent exhibits white noise structure, and there is a decadal scale trend associated with the decay of the ice cover. It is shown that (i) there is a large inter-model variability in the time scales extracted from the models, (ii) none of the models exhibits the decadal time scales found in the satellite observations, (iii) five of the 21 models examined exhibit the observed white noise structure, and (iv) the multi-model ensemble mean exhibits neither the observed white noise structure nor the observed decadal trend. It is proposed that the observed fluctuation statistics produced by this method serve as an appropriate test bed for modelling studies.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling of sea-ice phenomena’.

Enhanced response of global wetland methane emissions to the 2015–2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event

Wetlands are thought to be the major contributor to interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric methane (CH4) with anomalies driven by the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Yet it remains unclear whether (i) the increase in total global CH4 emissions during El Niño versus La Niña events is from wetlands and (ii) how large the contribution of wetland CH4 emissions is to the interannual variability of atmospheric CH4. We used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost and wetland dynamics to estimate CH4 emissions, forced by three separate meteorological reanalyses and one gridded observational climate dataset, to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetland CH4 emissions from 1980–2016. The simulations show that while wetland CH4 responds with negative annual anomalies during the El Niño events, the instantaneous growth rate of wetland CH4 emissions exhibits complex phase dynamics. We find that wetland CH4 instantaneous growth rates were declined at the onset of the 2015–2016 El Niño event but then increased to a record-high at later stages of the El Niño event (January through May 2016). We also find evidence for a step increase of CH4 emissions by 7.8±1.6 Tg CH4 yr−1 during 2007–2014 compared to the average of 2000–2006 from simulations using meteorological reanalyses, which is equivalent to a ~3.5 ppb yr−1 rise in CH4 concentrations. The step increase is mainly caused by the expansion of wetland area in the tropics (30°S–30°N) due to an enhancement of tropical precipitation as indicated by the suite of the meteorological reanalyses. Our study highlights the role of wetlands, and the complex temporal phasing with ENSO, in driving the variability and trends of atmospheric CH4 concentrations. In addition, the need to account for uncertainty in meteorological forcings is highlighted in addressing the interannual variability and decadal-scale trends of wetland CH4 fluxes.

Signal Processing Enhancements to Improve Instantaneous Accuracy of a Scanning Bolometer: Application to MERBE

Cloud radiative forcing climate signals cannot be detected and proved sufficiently by the existing space-based Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) measurements due to the insufficient instrument calibration accuracy, relative to the sizes of mere decadal-scale trends. This paper, therefore, introduces a new project called the Moon and ERB Experiment (MERBE). Its methodology is for all earth observations using broadband thermal detectors, such as bolometers, to adhere toward more traceable calibration standards based on scans of our moon. This traceability limits instrument-dependent biases and spurious drifts for the past decades of existing earth data measurements as well as future measurements. The goal of the MERBE project is to substantially increase existing satellite climate data accuracy; therefore, a reexamination of all aspects of space-based ERB device calibration was also warranted. This paper concentrates on the improvement of ERB data quality from the level of detector voltages and onward. A component model of bolometer thermal and electronic time response and offset effects is used to design an improved inversion filter, which deconvolves path direction dependence of a scanning thermal detector. For every ERB instrument on the TRMM, Terra, Aqua, and SNPP satellites, instantaneous error reductions are achieved in all recovered MERBE radiance measurements. This also will allow for more accurate results from ERB device lunar scans based on improved telescope field-of-view mapping, as presented in other MERBE work.

Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

Lake levels in a discontinuous permafrost landscape: Late Holocene variations inferred from sediment oxygen isotopes, Yukon Flats, Alaska

ABSTRACT During recent decades, lake levels in the Yukon Flats region of interior Alaska have fluctuated dramatically. However, prior to recorded observations, no data are available to indicate if similar or more extreme variations occurred during past centuries and millennia. This study explores the history of Yukon Flats lake origins and lake levels for the past approximately 5,500 years from sediment analyses guided by previous work on permafrost extent, thermokarst, and modern isotope hydrology. Sediments dated by 210Pb and AMS radiocarbon indicate stable chronologies following initial lake initiation. Subsequent lithology is autochthonous, and oxygen isotope ratios of endogenic carbonate reflect lake level change at multiple time scales. Sediment results indicate high lake levels between approximately 4000 and 1850 cal yr BP, which is interpreted to reflect wetter-than-modern conditions. Lower lake levels with short-lived high stands during the past approximately 800 years reflect generally arid conditions with brief wet intervals similar to the region’s moisture regime today. The millennial trend is one of increasing aridity and corresponds closely with fire reconstructions and regional paleoclimatic trends. We conclude that high-magnitude lake-level fluctuations and decadal scale trends occurred before the observational period and are persistent hydroclimatic features of the Yukon Flats region.

Decadal-scale trends in regional aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes

Understanding long-term trends in aerosol loading and properties is essential for evaluating the health and climatic effects of these airborne particulates as well as the effectiveness of pollution control policies. While many studies have used satellite data to examine the trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD), very few have investigated the trends in aerosol properties associated with particle size, morphology, and light absorption. In this study, we investigate decadal-scale (13–15 year) trends in aerosol loading and properties during 2001–2015 over three populous regions: the Eastern United States (EUS), Western Europe (WEU), and Eastern and Central China (ECC). We use observations from MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Relationships between aerosol property trends and air pollutant emission changes are examined. We find that annual mean AOD shows pronounced decreasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, as a result of considerable emission reductions in all major pollutants except for mineral dust and ammonia (NH3). Over the ECC region, AOD increases before 2006 due to emission increases induced by rapid economic development, fluctuates between 2006 and 2011, and subsequently decreases after 2011 in conjunction with effective emission reduction in anthropogenic primary aerosols, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The fraction of small-size AOD (<0.7 μm diameter), Ångstrom exponent and single-scattering albedo have generally decreased, while the fractions of large-size (>1.4 μm diameter), nonspherical and absorbing AOD have generally shown increasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, indicating that fine and light-scattering aerosol constituents have been more effectively reduced than coarse and light-absorbing constituents. These trends are consistent with the larger reduction ratios in SO2 and NOx emissions than in primary aerosols, including mineral dust and black carbon (BC). Over the ECC region, no significant trends are observed with respect to size distribution, morphology, or light absorption, which we attribute to a simultaneous increase in emissions of SO2, NOx, and primary aerosols including BC before 2006, and a simultaneous decrease after 2011. This study demonstrates the importance and usefulness of satellite-borne sensors, particularly MISR, in association with evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control policies.

Sighting demographics of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in the north-central Gulf of Mexico supported by citizen-sourced data

ESR Endangered Species Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials ESR 32:321-332 (2017) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00817 Sighting demographics of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in the north-central Gulf of Mexico supported by citizen-sourced data Elizabeth E. Hieb1,*, Ruth H. Carmichael1,2, Allen Aven1,2, Courtney Nelson-Seely1, Nicole Taylor1 1Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, Alabama 36528, USA 2University of South Alabama, Mobile, Alabama 36688, USA *Corresponding author: ehieb@disl.org ABSTRACT: Traditional research methods are often limited in their ability to capture broad spatial and temporal changes in species distribution that affect global patterns of biodiversity. To provide range-wide demographic data needed to quantify and evaluate changes in habitat use and support ongoing recovery efforts for the endangered West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus, we analyzed data from a formal manatee sighting network that uses citizen-sourced data for the understudied north-central Gulf of Mexico region. Although historically considered to be outside manatees’ typical US range, more than 1700 opportunistic, publicly reported manatee sightings and 23 mortalities have been documented in Alabama and Mississippi since the early 1900s. Live manatee sightings have occurred primarily during warmer months in rivers and subembayments. Manatee mortalities have significantly increased since the mid-1980s and have most often been attributed to cold stress, with 2 known mortalities due to vessel strikes in recent years. Sightings of individual manatees were most common, but group sizes of up to 17 were reported, typically in late summer. Decadal-scale trends in opportunistic sighting records demonstrate persistent spatial and temporal patterns of manatee occurrence in the north-central Gulf of Mexico and suggest greater use and importance of the region as seasonal manatee habitat than previously documented. If applied appropriately, citizen-sourced data have the potential to enhance targeted research efforts, significantly contribute to ecological datasets for a number of species, and provide a useful tool to enhance conservation and management. KEY WORDS: Manatee · Gulf of Mexico · Distribution · Citizen science · Opportunistic data Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Hieb EE, Carmichael RH, Aven A, Nelson‑Seely C, Taylor N (2017) Sighting demographics of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in the north-central Gulf of Mexico supported by citizen-sourced data. Endang Species Res 32:321-332. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00817 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in ESR Vol. 32. Online publication date: April 07, 2017 Print ISSN: 1863-5407; Online ISSN: 1613-4796 Copyright © 2017 Inter-Research.

Trends of surface solar radiation in unforced CMIP5 simulations

AbstractWe consider decadal scale trends of annual mean all‐sky surface solar radiation (SSR) that occur solely because of internal variability of the climate system. We give statistical estimates of their magnitude and probability of occurrence. The estimates are based on 43 preindustrial control (piControl) experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Trends are found to depend strongly on geographical region and on whether they are quantified in absolute units or relative to the long‐term mean SSR. We find it to be sufficient to provide one map for absolute and one for relative trends, as approximate analytical relations are shown to hold between trends of different length and likelihood and the standard deviation of the underlying SSR time series. We estimate that a positive trend over 30 years and with 25% chance of occurrence (75th percentile of all possible trends) has a magnitude between 0.15 and 1.7 W/m2/decade or 0.11 and 1.4% of long‐term mean SSR per decade, depending on geographical location. Comparison with present‐day observations and intermodel spread suggests an average uncertainty of these estimates of about 30%. Intermodel spread suggests that regional uncertainties can be up to about 3 times larger or smaller. We give examples of how these results may be used to obtain statistical estimates of how (un)likely it is that observed SSR trends or part thereof are due to internal variability alone.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends over 1979–2015 Derived from Combined SSU, MLS, and SABER Satellite Observations

Abstract Temperature trends in the middle and upper stratosphere are evaluated using measurements from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), combined with data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. Data from MLS and SABER are vertically integrated to approximate the SSU weighting functions and combined with SSU to provide a data record spanning 1979–2015. Vertical integrals are calculated using empirically derived Gaussian weighting functions, which provide improved agreement with high-latitude SSU measurements compared to previously derived weighting functions. These merged SSU data are used to evaluate decadal-scale trends, solar cycle variations, and volcanic effects from the lower to the upper stratosphere. Episodic warming is observed following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (1991), focused in the tropics in the lower stratosphere and in high latitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere. Solar cycle variations are centered in the tropics, increasing in amplitude from the lower to the upper stratosphere. Linear trends over 1979–2015 show that cooling increases with altitude from the lower stratosphere (from ~−0.1 to −0.2 K decade−1) to the middle and upper stratosphere (from ~−0.5 to −0.6 K decade−1). Cooling in the middle and upper stratosphere is relatively uniform in latitudes north of about 30°S, but trends decrease to near zero over the Antarctic. Mid- and upper-stratospheric temperatures show larger cooling over the first half of the data record (1979–97) compared to the second half (1998–2015), reflecting differences in upper-stratospheric ozone trends between these periods.

Sources of bias and variability in long-term Landsat time series over Canadian boreal forests

Abstract A variety of evidence suggests that the boreal forests of Canada are responding to climate change. Specifically, several studies have inferred that widespread browning trends detected in time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) reflect the response of boreal forests to longer growing seasons, increased summer drought stress, and higher frequency of fires. Data from the Thematic Mapper (TM5) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensors onboard Landsat 5 and 7, respectively, span essentially the same time period as the AVHRR record, but provide data with substantially higher radiometric and spatial fidelity, and by extension, a much improved basis for evaluating decadal-scale trends in spectral vegetation indices such as the NDVI. However, detection of trends, which are often subtle, requires careful attention to ensure that artifacts associated with the quality and stability of inter- and intra-sensor calibration do not lead to spurious conclusions in results from time series analyses. In this paper, we use time series of TM5 and ETM+ images for fifteen sites distributed across the Canadian boreal forest zone to explore if and how sensor geometry and inter- and intra-sensor calibration affect trends in spectral vegetation indices derived from multi-decadal Landsat time series. To do this, we created annual cloud-free composites for each Landsat spectral band based on peak summer NDVI at each site from 1984 to 2011 using all available TM5 and ETM+ data. To distinguish trends arising from long term climate change from those related to disturbance, we isolated areas within each site that were undisturbed during the Landsat record, and used these locations to analyze sources of variance in time series of red reflectance, near-infrared (NIR) reflectance, the NDVI, and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Our results highlight the challenges involved in distinguishing trends in surface properties from data artifacts caused by undetected atmospheric effects, changes in sensor view angles, and subtle radiometric differences between the TM5 and ETM+ sensors. In particular, differences in sensor view geometry across adjacent overlapping Landsat scenes cause vegetated pixels in the eastern portion of Landsat scenes to have higher reflectances in the red and NIR bands (by 5 and 6 percent, respectively) than pixels in the western portion of scenes. While this effect does not significantly change NDVI values, it does affect EVI values. We also found modest, but potentially significant, differences between the red band reflectance of each sensor, with TM5 data having 14 percent higher red reflectance on average for vegetated pixels, which can introduce spurious trends in time series that combine TM5 and ETM+ data. More generally, the results from this work demonstrate that while the 30 + year Landsat archive provides unprecedented opportunities for studying changes to the Earth's terrestrial biosphere over the last three decades, care must be taken when inferring trends in these data without considering how sources of variance unrelated to surface processes affect the integrity of Landsat time series.