Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Future Ocean Wave Power Potential: A Case Study from the Indian Ocean

Harshinie Karunarathna,Pravin Maduwantha,Harsha Rathnasooriya,Bahareh Kamranzad,Kasun De Silva

doi:10.3390/en13113028

Harshinie Karunarathna, Pravin Maduwantha + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en13113028

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Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of global climate change on the future wave power potential, taking Sri Lanka as a case study from the northern Indian Ocean. The geographical location of Sri Lanka, which receives long-distance swell waves generated in the Southern Indian Ocean, favors wave energy-harvesting. Waves projected by a numerical wave model developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore Waves (SWAN) wave model, which is forced by atmospheric forcings generated by an Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) within two time slices that represent “present” and “future” (end of century) wave climates, are used to evaluate and compare present and future wave power potential around Sri Lanka. The results reveal that there will be a 12–20% reduction in average available wave power along the south-west and south-east coasts of Sri Lanka in future. This reduction is due mainly to changes to the tropical south-west monsoon system because of global climate change. The available wave power resource attributed to swell wave component remains largely unchanged. Although a detailed analysis of monthly and annual average wave power under both “present” and “future” climates reveals a strong seasonal and some degree of inter-annual variability of wave power, a notable decadal-scale trend of variability is not visible during the simulated 25-year periods. Finally, the results reveal that the wave power attributed to swell waves are very stable over the long term.

Highlights

Marine energy is recognized as a reliable alternative to energy generated by burning fossil fuels in countries surrounded by the seas and oceans
Short- to medium-term future variabilities of wave power potential may be evaluated by extrapolating historic trends of variations determined by observed, hindcast, or simulated historic wind and wave data, long-term future changes associated with global climate change can only be assessed using future wave projections using atmospheric outputs from Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) or high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Present and future wave data used in this study are derived from the spectral wave model Simulating Waves Nearshore Waves (SWAN), using climate information provided by the GCM MRI-AGCM3.2S [28]

Summary

Introduction

Marine energy is recognized as a reliable alternative to energy generated by burning fossil fuels in countries surrounded by the seas and oceans. Short- to medium-term future variabilities of wave power potential may be evaluated by extrapolating historic trends of variations determined by observed, hindcast, or simulated historic wind and wave data, long-term future changes associated with global climate change can only be assessed using future wave projections using atmospheric outputs from AGCMs or high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Kamranzad et al [25] investigated the climate change impacts on wave energy resource in the Persian Gulf, using future wave projections derived based on atmospheric wind outputs from a global climate model, covering a 30-year period from 2071 to. Kamranzad et al [27] assessed climate change impacts on the available wave energy resource in the Indian Ocean using numerically simulated wave data over a period 25 years at the end of the. Present and future wave data used in this study are derived from the spectral wave model SWAN, using climate information provided by the GCM MRI-AGCM3.2S [28]

The Study Area and Its Characteristics

Present and Future Ocean Wave Projections for Sri Lanka Region

Climate Change Impacts on the Ocean Wave Energy Resource

Future Stability of the Wave Power Resource

Findings

Conclusions