National Debt Research Articles

MONETARY AND FISCAL COORDINATION IN UKRAINE AND ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF MARITAL STATE

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy instruments, to determine the level of influence of monetary and fiscal factors on economic growth, as well as to justify ways for improving the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Insufficient coordination of monetary and fiscal policies entails devastating economic consequences. The critical analysis of scientific publications proved that today the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies depends on the degree of balanced regulation of interest rates and inflation control. The research uses a NARDL model to capture mainstream trends in the influence of monetary and fiscal factors, as well as in the empirical study of their coordination. According to the estimations it was established that the weighted average rate of NBU instruments is absorbed to a greater extent in the monetary component of coordination, the system of managing the internal public debt – in the fiscal component. The participation of monetary authorities in the management of the national internal debt remains a debatable issue today. It is proved that the process of coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is influenced by the state of Ukraine’s economy during the war.Despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In particular, the significant contribution of the NBU in financing the state budget deficit due to their purchase of government bonds needs to be resolved. Strengthening the role of macroprudential policy in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, one of the goals of which is to counter the emergence of a systemic crisis; formation of a clearly developed coordination strategy, which would be based on clearly defined goals, set tasks on the basis of selected methods and instruments for their achievement.

State Financial Corruption and its Impact on Development

Purpose: This research aims to analyze the impact of corruption on individual and community development, economics and politics as well as public sector services. Methode: The type of research used is normative legal research using an analytical approach. Result and Conclusion: The impact of corruption on individual and community development, economics and politics as well as public sector services, namely the Impact of Corruption on Individual and Community Development can trigger people's distrust of the government. This triggers public apathy towards the programs being or will be planned by the government. Eliminating the nature of cooperation between the community and the government. The Impact of Corruption on Economic Development sluggish economic growth and investment, decreasing productivity, low quality of goods and services, decreasing state income from the tax sector, and rising national debt. The impact of corruption on political development hampers the government's function as the guardian of state policy because it hampers the government's role in regulating allocations, equalizing access and assets, and maintaining economic and political stability. The impact of corruption on public sector services causes bureaucracy to become inefficient and causes higher administrative costs.

EU Debt Instruments and Fiscal Transparency: The Case of the EU Recovery Fund

Abstract We study the transparency of debts incurred for the EU Recovery Fund. In our opinion, the Recovery Fund lacks transparency at various levels. We find that the Fund implements a hidden transfer scheme that splits member states into net contributors and net recipients. As a result, the national budgets of the EU member states will have to face uncertain future obligations. Finally, we hold that the Fund weakens the European fiscal rules because the debts of the Recovery Fund do not add to the national debt levels. The national debt levels therefore do not show the whole burden.

Impact of National Debt Burden on Indonesia's Economic Stability

This research asserts that national debt becomes burdensome when there is an increase in debt overhang, a lack of foreign reserves to pay for short-term external debt and a lack of revenue from the government to pay for debt service. The purpose of this study is to investigate the connection between Indonesia's economic stability and national burden debt. Data collected from 2000 to 2022, sourced from the World Development Indicators and the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Indonesia (2022 edition), were utilized. The factors used to quantify the obligation trouble are the all out obligation to-Gross domestic product proportion (obligation overhang), the momentary outer obligation to-saves proportion (hold sufficiency), and the obligation administration cost-to-government income proportion (income ampleness). The exchange rate is considered a control variable. The real growth rate of GDP is used to evaluate economic stability. The analysis is carried out using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which takes into account first differences and the stationary nature of the variables at both levels. The ARDL estimation demonstrates that revenue sufficiency has a significant and negative impact on economic stability over time, with the overall effect of the explanatory variables decreasing over time.

Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Greek Economy during the Pre- and Post-Euro Adoption Periods

This study examines the relationships between Greek macroeconomic variables, examining before and after the euro’s introduction as a currency. We conducted an extensive analysis from 1980 to 2019, examining various economic indicators such as government expenditure, unemployment rates, taxation, inflation, and national debt, employing causal and correlation analysis and econometric modeling with and without time-varying effects. The results revealed a significant correlation between the introduction of the euro and a tighter relationship between government spending and unemployment levels, while one more remarkable point was that higher government spending or debt reduction initiatives appeared to positively impact joblessness, particularly in the context of the euro. Our research underscored the correlation between national debt and government spending as increased debt led to reduced government expenditure and vice versa. Unemployment cited an increased impact on government spending right after the euro adoption, and on the other hand, the effect of unemployment on government spending decreased. The debt–government spending nexus was decreasing for many years before the euro adoption, while just before the euro adoption, the relationship between debt and government spending was rather stable. Finally, during the euro adoption, the effect of inflation on tax increased, while the corresponding inflation tax remained stable. Our findings have significant implications for policymakers shaping the economic strategies in Greece as they point out the necessity for stable and balanced approaches that manage government spending and debt to address unemployment effectively.

Debt, credit and obligation in Kenya’s 2022 elections

ABSTRACT Asked why they intended to vote for William Ruto in Kenya’s 2022 presidential election, many people in central Kenya had a simple answer: ‘we owe Ruto a debt’. This was not the only kind of debt, nor the only idea of obligation, to feature in the election campaigns: the extent of personal and national debt in Kenya were both frequently discussed. At the same time, voters were being offered more debt – through national and local schemes to provide credit to entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, even though the distribution of cash was an absolutely expected feature of campaign events, politicians and the public were consistently scathing in their denunciation of ‘handouts’: to simply give away money was widely viewed as deeply immoral. Drawing on traditional and digital media as well as interviews, this paper brings the literature on money debt in Africa into dialogue with work on electoral clientelism to explore how questions about the morality of obligations ran through the elections – in ways that suggest a degree of change but also point to deeper continuities.

REINVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF GROSS DOMESTIC SAVINGS, EXCHANGE RATES, AND NATIONAL DEBT ON MILITARY EXPENDITURE IN MALAYSIA

This study uses the ARDL method to explore how national debt relates to military expenditure, considering both short and long timeframes. In the short term, the research finds that changes in national debt don't strongly impact military expenditure right away. Interestingly, a stronger national currency is associated with lower short-term military expenditure. Additionally, higher domestic savings positively affect military expenditure in the short term, highlighting the role of local resources. In the long term, the study shows that all considered factors such as national debt, exchange rates, and domestic savings are positively contributed to military expenditure. This suggests that over time, increases in these factors are linked to higher military expenditure. Overall, the study highlights the complex connections between national debt, economic factors, and military expenditure, offering insights into both immediate and long-term influences on defense budget choices.

Evaluating the Impact of Energy Price Shocks on Emerging Countries from the Non-Euro Area: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Abstract Exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian conflict affected the global economy, but mostly emerging economies. Even though the critical moments have passed, the negative effects on the economy are still present in the current economic environment, characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Exogenous events, which have an uncertain likelihood of occurring, harm economies regardless of their development. In fact, a framework for unanticipated events is vital, as are steps to achieve low levels of national debt and increased authority stability. In this context, the objective of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationships between energy prices and certain macroeconomic variables, which were affected by the fact that the energy crisis triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict overlapped with the accelerated transition to a green economy and the decarbonization process. The CEE countries are more vulnerable to the energy crisis, and their proximity to the front lines of military conflict can be an important fact to take into account. The research focuses on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly frequency data and in order to present an effective method of modeling interactions between macroeconomic variables, the Bayesian technique was employed.

Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria with or without Domestic Investment

The paper examines the effect of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria with or without domestic investment between 1981 and 2020 using a technique of Dynamic Least Square (DOLS). The findings of the study reveal that public debt in Nigeria retards economic growth through reduction in the level of investment. This indicates the possibility that the current levels of public debt in the Nigeria might not have been reducing the volume of growth but have the tendency to create a poorer macroeconomic and uncertain climate for investment. The implication is that the nonlinear relationship between debt and economic growth is a reality. It is suggested that there should be big push investment into all sectors of the economy that serve as engine of growth to the nation and whenever public debt is acquired, domestic investment must be given priority. Keywords: Effect, Public Debt, Economic Growth, Domestic Investment, Nigeria

A Time Series Analysis of the Total Program Expenditures to Support the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the United States

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, also known as food stamps) offers tens of millions of American beneficiaries a crucial lifeline. This welfare benefit has been associated with better nutritional outcomes and has been linked to an efficient tool to fight hunger, improve labour market outcomes for the beneficiaries, achieve higher birth weight for children born to the beneficiary mothers, improve height and health outcomes for the beneficiaries. SNAP has been found to be an essential tool to ensure the availability of vital resources during times of need, etc. Despite the program’s numerous advantages, serious doubts exist about its viability and stability of the program especially, given the steep rise in program costs over the years. Over the past 50 years, SNAP has experienced tremendous growth both in terms of the number of beneficiaries and amount of spending. From over $1.82 billion in 1969 to over $113 billion in 2022, the total cost of the SNAP initiative has increased over 62 times in 53 years. This research uses data from the US Department of Agriculture to investigate the time series properties in the rise in the total expenditure devoted to the SNAP between 1969 and 2022. With and without trends, Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests are run with carefully chosen lag lengths. The existence of a unit root cannot be rejected in all specifications pointing to the possibility that the program might have grown in an unstable manner over time. An overwhelming amount of evidence points to an unstable and unstable growth in the overall amount spent on SNAP recipients. This unchecked growth may present substantial difficulties for policymakers especially since the program competes with other welfare programs in an environment of rapidly rising national debt and persistent budget deficits. The report does not attempt to estimate program fraud or abuse which may partially contribute to higher expenditures.

ECONOMIC CONCEPTS OF PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT

In the conditions of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, our state faces the question of attracting funds from both residents and non-residents to solve military and social problems, as a result of which the national debt is formed and its constant growth occurs. The receipt of macro-financial assistance (soft loans) from the EU had the greatest impact on the growth of public debt. The growth of Ukraine’s public debt was influenced by the receipt of loans under the programs of the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD, and the government of Canada. The growth of the national debt determines the need to choose an effective method of managing the national debt, because the country’s debt security depends on the management of the national debt. The article analyzes the management of public debt from a theoretical and scientific point of view. The purpose of the work is to conduct an analysis of the economic category of «public debt management», its principles and stages. The main areas of activity of the concept of «public debt» are determined both from a regulatory and legal point of view, and from a scientific point of view; its classification by criteria is given. Public debt is an important economic category that reflects a set of economic relations in the field of attracting positional financial resources with the involvement of the financial deficit of the national sector of the economy on the basis of repayment, payment and maturity.

재정건전성의 법적 함의와 규율

Ensuring fiscal sustainability for future generations and responding to structural fiscal burdens such as low birth rates and aging population are crucial national capabilities to address economic crises. Fiscal soundness generally refers to a state where there are no problems with the government's ability to pay for services, and there are no obstacles to fiscal sustainability. This can be understood as maintaining a national debt-to-GDP ratio within a limit specified by fiscal rules, ensuring that the rate of increase in national debt is lower than the interest rate, and being able to adjust current debt to future fiscal balances. Fiscal soundness, in essence, may be viewed as maintaining the principle of balanced budgets, emphasizing fiscal equilibrium. However, commonly cited criteria for assessing fiscal soundness are national debt, fiscal balance, and expenditure levels, with the national debt-to-GDP ratio being a prominent indicator. In the 2000s, various factors threatening fiscal sustainability in the Korean economy, such as rapid aging, unprecedentedly low birth rates, global economic downturns, and intensifying trade disputes between the US and China, have been raised. In particular, the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has made it difficult to predict the future in fiscal and economic policy. Against the backdrop of high global economic uncertainty, the growth rate of the Korean economy is forecasted to decline to an average of 2.0% during the period of 2020-2024, a 0.8%p decrease compared to the previous five years, with economic growth in 2023 at 1.4%. The “Integrated Fiscal Balance” recorded a deficit of 72.2 trillion won in 2020, and the “Management Fiscal Balance” recorded a deficit of 112 trillion won, the highest deficit since statistics were compiled in 2001. In 2023, the “Management Fiscal Balance” recorded a deficit of 117 trillion won, the highest ever. Various indicators are warning of “red lights” across the country, sparking heated debates about fiscal soundness or the sustainability of fiscal policy. The upcoming 22nd National Assembly, soon to begin its session, faces significant challenges in overcoming economic difficulties and adapting flexibly to changes in the global economy to find new drivers of growth and seize opportunities for a new leap forward. This paper examines the meaning of fiscal soundness, what criteria should be considered, and explores the legal implications of the principle of balanced budgets(principe d’équilibre budgétaire) in French fiscal law. Furthermore, it reviews institutional challenges for ensuring fiscal sustainability, such as fiscal rules, budgetary legalism, and the Paygo Rule.

DEBT SECURITY OF UKRAINE

DEBT SECURITY OF UKRAINE

Impact of fiscal policies on the labor market with search friction: An estimated DSGE model for Japan

This study investigates the effects of heterogenous fiscal policies on Japan's labor market amidst increasing national debt and economic downturns. We develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model incorporating labor market search friction, staggered wage negotiation, price stickiness and productive government employment. This model is used to compare the impacts of multiple fiscal policies—including government employment spendings, direct government expenditures, and tax cuts—on employment. The model, estimated with macroeconomic data of Japan spanning 1985 to 2019, offers a detailed look at how fiscal policies influence employment dynamics.Our analysis shows that increasing employment within the government sector significantly lowers unemployment rates, with a long-term unemployment reduction effect (multiplier) of −0.4. Collectively, all fiscal policies contribute to 23.96 % of the employment rate fluctuations, with government employment policies playing a dominant role, accounting for 8.55 % of these variations. This underscores the significant stabilizing effect of government employment policies in the labor market and their capacity to boost private sector employment through enhanced household income and increased private sector productivity. This research not only sheds light on the critical role of public sector interventions during economic downturns but also enhances our understanding of the effectiveness of Japan's fiscal policies.

The Charge of the Light Cy-près

Abstract The cy-près doctrine empowers courts to rescue funds held on a frustrated charitable trust by applying them to a different purpose. In Zedra Fiduciary Services (UK) Ltd v HM Attorney General [2023] EWCA Civ 133, the Court of Appeal upheld a decision applying the funds of a substantial and unusual charitable trust towards relieving the UK’s national debt. In this article, we offer a brief history of the trust before considering the Court of Appeal’s judgment. We argue that the decision is justified, but reveals flaws in legislative reforms, which have sought to create more flexibility in the doctrine.

Analysing the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Credit Risk in the UK Banking Sector

Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different predictive models (traditional statistical and machine learning algorithms), this study aims to examine the macroeconomic determinants’ impact on the UK banking credit risk and assess the most accurate credit risk estimate using predictive analytics. This study found that the variance-based multi-split decision tree algorithm is the most precise predictive model with interpretable, reliable, and robust results. Our model performance achieved 95% accuracy and evidenced that unemployment and inflation rate are significant credit risk predictors in the UK banking context. Our findings provided valuable insights such as a positive association between credit risk and inflation, the unemployment rate, and national savings, as well as a negative relationship between credit risk and national debt, total trade deficit, and national income. In addition, we empirically showed the relationship between national savings and non-performing loans, thus proving the “paradox of thrift”. These findings benefit the credit risk management team in monitoring the macroeconomic factors’ thresholds and implementing critical reforms to mitigate credit risk.

홍와 이두훈의 현실인식과 사유세계

The aim of this study is to investigate, from multiple perspectives the life and contemplative world of HongWa(弘窩) Li Doo-hun(李斗勳, 1856~1918) who was born in Seongju, Gyeongbuk, Korea and active mainly in Goryeong, Seongju, Geochang, and Hapcheon during the late period of the 19th century and the early period of the 20th century. The man, a scholar out of government office, dedicated his whole life to studying and writing literary works, carrying out independence activities, during the turbulent times of the intervention in domestic affairs from foreign powers and the deprivation of national sovereignty by the Japanese imperialism.
 After having joined Hanju academic circles, at the age of 20 years, he held Ganghoe(講會), Hayangeumjur(鄕飮酒禮), Gyeolgye(結契) and others, together with his colleagues, to create the academic atmosphere. Also, he actively confronted the deprivation of national sovereignty and domestic affairs from foreign powers. In February 1896, Li stated ｢Pogocheonhamun(布告天下文)｣ which requested western powers to strictly judge the atrocities of the Japanese imperialism, based on the international law of Mangukgongbeop(萬國公法). He prepared and completed its draft, before sending it to the American, British, and Russian legations in Seoul. With Eulsaneukyak(乙巳勒約) (Japan-Korea Treaty) signed in 1905, he and his colleagues made a written appeal of Cheongjujeoksinpaneukyakso(請誅賊臣罷勒約疏)｣ led by Lee Seung-hui to the king to repeal the treaty. As Gukchaebosang- undong(National Debt Redemption Movement) was proposed on January 29, 1907, he undertook the role as the leader of Goryeong area.
 Hong Wa Li Doo-hun was active, cultivating the acquaintance of his colleagues from Jumunpalhyeon School to publish Ganghoe(講會), Gangron(講論), Gyeolgye(結契), scripts that his mentors had recorded during his life, and travel essay. The purpose of these activities can be examined according to three aspects as follows. The first purpose is to build up solidarity between colleagues, for Hanju academic circles that faced crisis. The second and third purposes are to secure the framework the academic work of the mentor and to expand the extension of Hanju-Hakpa

충청 지역 여성독립운동의 성격과 공적

The history of the Korean women’s independence movement was not only an anti-Japanese independence movement that sought national independence, but also a human liberation movement that sought to break away from feudalism within the nation. Ironically, it was only during the independence movement when the country was taken away that awareness of Gender Equality began to take root in society. In the course of Korea’s modern history, women’s activities have achieved remarkable growth compared to the previous era, but research results are still insufficient to give meaning.
 In modern times, the Christian gospel brought about an awakening that women had not experienced in the pre-modern feudal era. Since the Bible women educated by Christian missionaries had a greater ability to spread the gospel than any other missionaries, the Bible women can be evaluated as the leading figures who achieved great results in the Christian gospel and women's liberation in the Chungcheong Province.
 Women in Chungcheong Province were able to learn the Korean alphabet and overcome illiteracy by studying the Bible with female missionaries and Bible women from the Southern Methodist Church. Memories of learning and strong faith brought awareness and strengthened women’s inner self, giving them the strength to overcome any adversity.
 Feudalism persisted in the Chungcheong Province for a long time compared to other regions, and women were dismissed as socially inferior and in need of education. It can be said that the process of enlightenment and modernization for women in Chungcheong was more painful than any other region due to the dominance of the patriarchal idea that women are subordinate to men. This is because the long tradition of Confucianism, which was built as a moral system, and the wall of conservatism were that thick. Modern enlightened women had the dual task of reforming feudal society internally and opposing the Japanese imperialist invasion force externally, but women who did not enjoy the benefits of education remained stuck in medieval thinking even into modern times. Nevertheless, in the colonial system, women fought for the value of national liberation above their own liberation, and entered the independence movement with the determination that women's liberation could never be achieved without national liberation.
 Rather than staying in the Chungcheong province, women in Chungcheong left traces of an active independence movement by moving to other regions or abroad. Therefore, the Chungcheong region could not create an ecosystem for the independence movement where the women's movement could develop. At the time of the National Debt Compensation Movement in 1907, national debt compensation organizations were created by women in various regions, but they were not found in any of them in the Chungcheong Province. In addition, although the Geunwoohoe(근우회), which was founded in 1927 as the women’s only unified cooperative front organization, developed into a national organization, the fact that no branches were established in the South Chungcheong rigion speaks for this phenomenon.
 Although the proportion of women who participated in the March 1st Movement and the student movement is significantly lower than in other regions, we can see that awareness of women in gender and class discrimination is changing significantly as we witness the dedication and sacrifice of Chungcheong women who led the March 1st Movement. Along with these changes of the times, women’s worldview and historical awareness also changed significantly, leading to the realization that an intact community could not be maintained without women’s participation. In this way, the vision of building an independent nation-state without gender discrimination could finally be unified.

Childcare Support Policies, Endogenous Fertility, Human Capital Accumulation, and Dynamics of National Debt

This paper analyzes the interaction among childcare support policies, endogenous fertility, and human capital accumulation using an overlapping-generations model, which is mainly based on Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) and Cardak (2004). Although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider endogenous fertility and child allowances financed by tax or foreign debt in a model of a small open economy, they ignore educational expenditures and do not analyze human capital accumulation and national debt. Although Cardak (2004) considers human capital accumulation and assumes it is determined by governmental or parental expenditures on education and by parent’s human capital endowments, he ignores child allowances and assumes population size is constant in each period. This study considers human capital accumulation in a model introduced childcare time with endogenous fertility and assumes that child allowances and childcare services are financed by income tax and national debt. We then consider two childcare support policies―raise child allowances or expand childcare services―and compare the effects of both policies on endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation. Moreover, we analyze dynamics of national debt.

Does public debt disrupt economic growth in Nigeria? A two-stage least squares approach

The impact of Nigeria's public debt on economic growth was investigated in this study. Additionally, it confirmed the validity of Nigeria's debt burden and crowding-out hypotheses. The time series data used ranged from 1981 to 2021. For analysis, the Two-Stage Least Squares and Toda Yamamoto Causality tests were employed. The findings contradicted the debt overhang effect hypothesis by showing that public debt had a positive and significant influence on economic growth. This proves that Nigeria's public debt has no adverse effects on the economic growth of the nation. Additionally, debt service has a detrimental effect on economic growth. This demonstrated that the crowding-out effect, often known as the crowding-out hypothesis, existed in Nigeria. Thus, servicing the national debt has a negative impact on Nigeria's economic expansion. The results of the public debt model, however, showed that trade openness and real gross domestic product had a favourable effect on public debt. A bidirectional relationship between public debt and economic growth was revealed by the findings of the causality test. The results also showed a one-way relationship between debt service and economic growth. As a result, the study implies that the government can simultaneously pursue its two policy goals of economic growth and public debt. Furthermore, decisions about debt repayment in Nigeria should be made in a way that promotes the growth of the economy. Nigeria should also improve institutional performance and boost its macroeconomic policy in the areas of inflation, foreign direct investment, trade, and exchange rates.