Opinion Poll Data Research Articles

Navigating New Waters: Russian Military Aggression on Ukraine and Effects on the Visegrad Group

In this article, the author examines the dynamic evolution of the Visegrad Group (V4) countries in response to Russia's war on Ukraine. Although V4 cooperation is deeply rooted in shared historical experiences, recent geopolitical challenges have revealed significant differences among member countries. Poland and the Czech Republic are strongly supportive of Ukraine and oriented towards NATO, while Hungary and Slovakia are more ambivalent, creating internal tensions. The author examines the factors that shape national identities and their influence on these divergent responses, highlighting that these factors have implications for the future of the V4 countries. The researcher used mixed methods to analyse official documents, political speeches and opinion poll data from the V4 countries, to examine the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on V4 unity and solidarity, and to consider the implications for the future of the V4 countries. The findings point to a fragile unity and growing concerns about the V4's ability to respond coherently to external threats.

Pathway to Power: Shifts in Electoral Support for the Australian Labor Party Between the 1966 and 1969 Federal Elections

The House of Representatives election of 2 December, 1972, was a watershed in Australian political history. That election saw the Australian Labor Party terminate the Liberal–Country Party (LCP) Coalition's twenty‐three‐year hegemony and bring to office not only a different type of Labor government but a different prime ministerial style in leader Gough Whitlam. Yet, just six years before, Labor at the 1966 election had suffered a 4.30 per cent two‐party preferred (2PP) swing and the loss of nine seats following Labor's lowest primary vote since 1934. Labor's dramatic reversal of fortunes in just six years therefore remains of enormous historical interest. But, given the 1972 election saw a modest 2.5 per cent 2PP swing to Labor, with the party seizing twelve seats from the Coalition and losing four back to the LCP, the 1969–72 triennium offers little insight into Labor's recovery. In that context, this article, via analyses of House of Representatives election results and public opinion poll data, explores the chronology, demography, and geography of Labor's electoral recovery to argue the 1966–69 triennium remains of far greater value when identifying exactly when, among whom, and where Labor began its pathway to power.

US and Chinese Aid to Africa: A Relational Approach to Impact on Soft Power

Abstract Over the last two decades, China has become increasingly influential in Africa, and the US policy pivoting to confront domestic challenges and withdrawing from its role in international fora has raised many concerns. Based on this global context, this paper examines the US-China soft power competition through foreign aid. It takes a relational lens to analyze their aid to the African countries. It first looks at how foreign aid could be transformed into soft power assets, and then innovatively puts the two countries side by side and examines the relational powers of their foreign aid and the impacts on the other’s national image. The paper uses ordered (Ordinary Least Squares) OLS, ordered logit, and IV regression to analyze aid data and opinion poll data. The results show that foreign aid can promote the African perceptions of both countries. It also finds that Chinese aid has a negative impact on the image of the US in Africa, while American aid has no significant effect on African perception of China. This conclusion aligns with the competitive nature of the US–China relationship. China’s model of aid may be preferred by Africans, while the US may need to revisit its approaches in Africa in order to turn this situation around.

The legislative cost of ruling: Voter punishment of governing parties fuels legislator party dissent

AbstractPolitical parties in office generally incur a cost of ruling among the electorate. This article considers the broader implications of this phenomenon for democratic governance. We argue that the electoral cost a party incurs in office entails that its individual legislators become more inclined to vote against the party line as a way to distance themselves from the deteriorating party brand. We test and support several observable implications of this argument using time series data including all members of parliament in the British parliament between 1992 and 2015 coupled with monthly opinion poll data. The well‐established electoral cost of ruling thus translates into a legislative cost of ruling by reducing incumbent party legislators’ loyalty to the party line. We discuss how the legislative cost of ruling complicates effective governance but may also strengthen democratic accountability by reducing legislative capacity of governing parties that have lost their electoral mandate.

Conceptual analysis of the narrative strategy of the text of the propaganda speech from the position of the post-Romanov psychoanalytic approach

The article presents the author's version of narrative analysis based on the methodology of post-Romanov political psychoanalysis and discourse analysis of the text of a propaganda speech. The concepts of the master signifier, the points of attachment, the double movement of signifiers in the structure of the narrative as the basis for the internalization of the ideas and values of the narrative by the addressee of communication are actualized. The matrix of the university's discourse is considered as a constructive basis that ensures the promotion and functioning of the narrative. The analysis of the case of the speech of the US Secretary of State Colin Powell at the UN Security Council on February 5, 2003 is given. The initial theoretical positions and conclusions are correlated with the data of public opinion polls conducted by the Gallup Institute.The author's main contribution to the theory of narrative analysis is the approbation of the conceptual apparatus of political psychoanalysis to propaganda texts. The study of the phenomenon of internalization of the narrative of war in the mass consciousness requires a deep understanding of the driving forces underlying the processes under study. For the first time, the media text is analyzed from the perspective of a psychoanalytic approach, with the possibility of defining and describing specific reference points of a speech that determine its structure and final result. The proposed study lays the prerequisites for the further development of the concept of the narrative life cycle and the formulation of the concept of the counter-narrative, the definition of the inherent limitations and opportunities of this life cycle.

The Coup Capital of the Democratic World? Voters and Prime Ministerial Change in Australia

Between 2010 and 2018, Australia saw four sitting prime ministers deposed by their own parties, giving the country the title “the coup capital of the democratic world”. In this paper, we use Australian Election Study surveys and commercial opinion poll data to analyse what voters thought of these changes and whether they lifted the electoral fortunes of their respective parties. The results suggest that voters' views of the changes depended on the popularity of the leader in question, but that a desire to see better economic performance reinforced support for a change in prime minister. There is little evidence that opinion polls played a role in any of the changes, at least for voters. There is also no evidence that the changes improved the subsequent vote for each of the parties that changed a prime minister; indeed, in three of the four cases the party vote declined significantly following the change.

Margaret Thatcher, British public opinion and German reunification, 1989–90

ABSTRACT Using opinion poll data collected for the United States Information Agency, the European Commission and various media organisations, this article analyses British public opinion towards German reunification in 1989 and 1990. Contrasting the public’s views with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s hostile approach towards German unity, it demonstrates that the British public were largely supportive of the principle of German reunification. Nevertheless, there was uncertainty about reunification’s consequences. Furthermore, significant generational differences existed, with Britons who experienced life during periods of war in the first half of the twentieth century expressing greater concern about the prospect of a united Germany.

Attitudes Towards Russia and the USA in the Public Opinion of Modern China

The acute Russian-American confrontation made it important to reveal the attitude of international public opinion towards Russia the United States, especially in countries such as China. But the specifics of the attitudes of the population towards foreign states makes it necessary to analyze many aspects of these attitudes, preferably over a long period of time. Since public opinion poll data is usually severely limited both in the number of indicators and in temporal coverage, there is a need to summarize as many polls conducted by different organizations as possible. In this article, such a generalization is made on the basis of eight large-scale public opinion surveys covering the period from 2004 to 2022, including the time shortly before and after the start of the SMO (special military operation). An analysis of survey data reveals that public opinion in the PRC from 2004 to 2021 consistently treated Russia much more favorably: a large majority systematically expressed positive attitudes, the gap of which from attitudes towards the United States frequently exceeded 50%. With the onset of SMO, this positive attitude worsened in some aspects, improved in others, everywhere by an insignificant amount. Attitudes towards the United States also slightly worsened. Thus, we can confidently say that the public opinion of modern China has a very positive attitude towards Russia, rather negatively towards the United States, the beginning of the SMO, in general, did not change this situation, and the current events are not perceived by the Chinese public as extraordinary, requiring revision of views on international relations.

Are fairness perceptions shaped by income inequality? evidence from Latin America

A common assumption in the literature is that the level of income inequality shapes individuals' beliefs about whether the income distribution is fair (``fairness views,'' for short). However, individuals do not directly observe income inequality (which often leads to large misperceptions), nor do they consider all inequities to be unfair. In this paper, we empirically assess the link between objective measures of income inequality and fairness views in a context of high but decreasing income inequality. We combine opinion poll data with harmonized data from household surveys of 18 Latin American countries from 1997--2015. We report three main findings. First, we find a strong and statistically significant relationship between income inequality and unfairness views across countries and over time. Unfairness views evolved in the same direction as income inequality for 17 out of the 18 countries in our sample. Second, individuals who are older, unemployed, and left-wing are, on average, more likely to perceive the income distribution as very unfair. Third, fairness views and income inequality have predictive power for individuals' self-reported propensity to mobilize and protest independent of each other, suggesting that these two variables capture different channels through which changes in the income distribution can affect social unrest.

Income and Wealth Inequality in Hong Kong, 1981–2020: The Rise of Pluto-Communism?

Abstract The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution and institutional roots of Hong Kong's growing economic inequality and political cleavages. By combining multiple sources of data (household surveys, fiscal data, wealth rankings, national accounts) and methodological innovations, two main findings are obtained. First, he evidence suggests a very large rise in income and wealth inequality in Hong Kong over the last four decades. Second, based on the latest opinion poll data, business elites, who carry disproportionate weight in Hong Kong's Legislative Council, are found to be more likely to vote for the pro-establishment camp (presumably to ensure that policies are passed that protect their political and economic interests). This paper argues that the unique alliance of government and business elites in a partially democratic political system is the plausible institutional root of Hong Kong's rising inequality and political cleavages.

PHENOMENOLOGY OF LACUNARITY IN DIFFERENT LANGUAGES

The paper deals with the problem of lacunarity, that is, the allomorphism of languages of different structures on heterogeneous material: translations of different times, lexicographic sources and opinion poll data of native speakers of the same language who study Russian, ways of eliminating lacunae at various historical stages in the development of the lexical system of different languages and the mismatch of signs of nomination, and also describes vector lacunarity in the speech etiquette of the Russian language from the point of view of translation into Arabic. The main approaches to the study of the phenomenon of lacunarity in modern linguistics are considered. A typology of lacunarity is proposed based on the material of languages with different structures.

Tabloid Tales: How the British Tabloid Press Shaped the Brexit Vote

AbstractThis article focuses on the role of the British tabloid press (BTP), and specifically the eurosceptic press, as a ‘supply‐side’ influence on the 2016 EU referendum. First, we focus on the BTP and its role as an ‘agenda‐setter’ in shaping eurosceptic discourse regarding the UK's relationship with the EU. Second, we use content analysis of five tabloid newspapers – The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Daily Mirror, The Daily Express and The Daily Star to demonstrate the disproportionate pro‐Brexit discourse prior to, and during, the EU referendum campaign. Third, drawing on opinion poll data, we show how this ‘bombardment’ approach influenced the electorate in the referendum campaign. Given the ‘knowledge deficit’ about the EU in the UK, we conclude that the BTP had a significant bearing on tipping the referendum vote towards Brexit.

Increasing the prestige of local self-government bodies and the effectiveness of activities should begin in the process of studying at the university

The subject of the research are the materials of judicial practice (texts of court decisions and information sources, the content of information about the results of court hearings), data from sociological surveys.The purpose of the article is to identify the relationship between the knowledge of municipal law, local self-government or urbanism obtained during training at a university and subsequent professional activities related to local self-government carried out at different levels of public authority.The methodology. A comprehensive methodology was used, including legal and sociological research methods. Formal legal, legal technical and comparative legal were used among the legal methods. The sociological methods include the method of expert survey and the method of content analysis, which makes it possible to reveal the real position of the respondent, if he wants to disguise it not only the positions expressed, but also the words actually used were analyzed. The most repeatable ones were identified with the help of special software products.The main results, scope of application. Quite significant amendments were made to the Russian Constitution in 2020. One of the novels concerns a unified system of public power, the inclusion of a new term in the text of the constitution. The implementation of these novels in the legislation on local self-government is expected after the completion of the formation of the updated composition of the Federal Assembly. For this, it is necessary not only to reveal the term itself and list the levels of public authority, but also to establish new principles of their relationship, incl. in a sense, uniform standards, rules and requirements for state and local authorities. One of the possible consequences of this may be an increase in the prestige of work in local self-government bodies, a change in attitudes towards work in local self-government bodies.Conclusions. The analysis of the materials of law enforcement practice, the data of opinion polls on trust in local self-government bodies, attitude to the results of the work of local self-government bodies and their officials show that of all levels of government the municipal level is least trusted. Unfortunately, such an attitude begins to form in the process of training future employees of public authorities at different levels.

МОБІЛЬНІСТЬ ПРАВОСЛАВ'Я В СУЧАСНІЙ УКРАЇНІ

This article is about modern Orthodoxy in Ukraine. First of all, it shows the way of Orthodoxy in the process of globalization and makes an attempt to describe a position of church in modern conditions. The article appeals to the data of opinion polls which have been carried out within the last 15 years. These data help to understand how opinions of Ukrainian people were changing regarding an idea of a local Orthodox church. At the same time, an attempt of explanation of Ukrainian religious complications is being done. The article attempts to summarize the role of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, to describe its activities in recent years: from the beginning of an independence and opening a free path to other religions – and to modern multi-religious Ukraine, where Orthodoxy still holds the position of the guide of spiritual life. Also the article examines researches of some Ukrainian scientists in different fields and shows future possibilities of the Orthodox church in Ukraine.

The Anatomy of Loyalty: Mechanisms for the Formation of an Electoral Super-Majority in the Ethnic Republics of Contemporary Russia

An invariable characteristic of Russian elections in the post-Soviet period is the relatively-high turnout and electoral support of incumbents demonstrated by many of the ethnic republics. The article is devoted to the study of the reasons for the relationship between the ethnic factor and the reproduction of political loyalty. Unlike most previous studies, the authors test existing theories on the basis of opinion polls data rather than official electoral statistics. This makes it possible to include the ethnic characteristics of voters at the individual level in the analysis, rather than regional or local levels. The statistical analysis is complemented by the study of qualitative data in the form of expert interviews and materials from three focus groups conducted in the villages of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. The results obtained make it possible to assert that the political loyalty of the Russian republics is determined not by cultural specifics, but by the nature of the settlement structure. Ethnic republics include a relatively-high proportion of the agrarian population, a significant part of which is represented by ethnic minorities. This overlap of ethnic and rural segments determines the reproduction of the electoral super-majority. However, the nature of this phenomenon is explained not by the “patriarchal culture” of non-Russian ethnic groups, but by the institutional capabilities of the local administration to monitor and control the political behavior of rural voters. The study also made it possible to clarify the role of the ethnic factor in contemporary electoral processes, which also affects the reproduction of political loyalty not only to the heads of the republics, but also to non-ethnic federal political actors. However, its influence is also conditioned by the political and institutional characteristics of the ethnic republics, and not by the cultural characteristics of the titular ethnic groups.

Who is to blame for the terrorist attack? Comparison of content analysis and survey data as sources of responsibility ascriptions

There is a growing body of research that uses different content analysis techniques to study risk and related issues. In this article, we focused on the question of how analysis of textual data relates to individual judgments, specifically responsibility ascriptions after the case of a terrorist attack. Our methodological goal was to assess the agreement between the results obtained via unobtrusive methods and evaluations extracted from survey data. Our substantive goal was to examine the specificity of responsibility attributions in the situation of a terrorist attack based on manual content analyses of blog posts. We addressed these questions in three empirical studies. The first focused on the 2011 Domodedovo Airport bombing. A content analysis of a random sample of 1050 posts showed that individual terrorists are rarely blamed in contrast to other actors. This unexpected finding inspired the subsequent studies. In the second study, a content analysis of essays written by students about terrorist attacks in Volgograd in 2013 (n = 26) was used in conjunction with an online survey of these students. The result was that almost all the actors had high blame ratings, even actors not mentioned in the essays. A third study examined the 2015 Charlie Hebdo shooting. Apart from essays and an online survey of students (n = 80), we also conducted a manual content analysis of blog posts (n = 300). We found weak, but important evidence for concurrence of content analysis and survey data: students who mentioned French authorities in essays indeed blamed this actor higher in the survey. In conclusion, content analysis proved to be a suitable tool for inferring responsibility ascriptions from textual data, but reconstructed evaluations from texts do not always correspond to the opinion poll data.

The Effect of “Brexit” Uncertainty on The FTSE 100 Index and The UK Pound

We investigate the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s proposed departure from the European Community (“Brexit”) on financial assets. We conduct an event study around the November 14th 2018 draft withdrawal agreement. Our motivation was that the economic impact of the various political permutations that persisted throughout the negotiation period were both measurable and distinct. The probability of each Brexit scenario that was discussed varied over the political discourse. Using opinion poll data we investigate the event impact on both the FTSE 100 and the UK Pound. We found that, in accordance with existing academic evidence, asset prices discounted the weighted probabilistic economic impact of likely outcomes. We observe, however, that this impact was not as immediate as theory suggests. Interestingly, currency markets had the greater sensitivity. Our conclusions have important implications for the pricing of country risk premia in general and the European Union in particular. Key takeaways: 1) Asset prices were slow to discount the weighted probabilistic economic impact of Brexit risk. 2) Currency markets had the greater sensitivity to changes in Brexit risk. 3) Country risk premia can be impacted by perceived changes in custom union.

Using Opinion Polling Data to Replicate Non-Experimental Quantitative Results Across Time and Space: An Exploration of Attitudes Surrounding School Desegregation and Resegregation Policies

A renewed call for replications has emerged in social science research. An important form of replication involves exploring the extent to which findings from a given study hold in other contexts. This study draws on opinion polling data to replicate key findings across time and space based on an original study in one location analyzing attitudes toward public school assignment policies. The replication finds that many of the original findings hold, though one important exception reflects the changing context. We note that the increasing availability of relatively inexpensive methods of quantitative data production facilitates replication and comment on how the temporal interval between the original study and the replication may influence the extent to which findings replicate. We argue that largely successful replications help to clarify the conditions under which findings replicate, and that sociologists are in the early stages of determining which strategies work best for replicating which findings.

Образ многодетной матери в социальных сетях

The scientific article was prepared using empirical sociological data of the All-Russian public opinion polls of VTSIOM-Sputnik. The essential characteristics and mechanisms of forming the image of having many children in social networks are investigated. It is established that having many children is gradually returning to a number of values of modern Russian society. The Internet image of a mother with many children remains open, taking into account the fact that on the Internet these images are formed only by content creators, who in most cases deliberately seek to distort reality. The image of a large family, and therefore a mother with many children, on the Internet does not tend to negatize and remains stable. In conclusion, the characteristics of the positive and negative image of a mother with many children in social networks are presented, the modern criteria for the success of a mother with many children that are being promoted in the virtual world are indicated.

Inclusive Education in Today’s Russia: Room for Manoeuvre

The development of regulatory frameworks has accelerated in Russia after the ratification of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in 2012. Using public opinion poll data and interviews with school administrators, teachers, assistants and parents, the authors show the challenges of moving towards inclusive education in contemporary Russia. The development of an inclusive school culture is analysed at the levels of artefacts, values and assumptions. Attempts to forge an inclusive culture do not always go smoothly; unexpected consequences occur, including open and hidden resistance and conflicts between children, parents and teachers. Meanwhile, the external context threatens the sustainability of inclusion.