Data Deficient Research Articles

Determinants of data deficiency in the impacts of alien bird species

To identify the factors that influence the availability of data on the negative impacts of alien bird species, in order to understand why more than 70% are currently classified as Data Deficient (DD) by the Environmental Impact Classification of Alien Taxa (EICAT) protocol.Information on factors hypothesised to influence the availability of impact data were collated for 344 alien bird species (107 with impact data and 237 DD). These data were analysed using mixed effects models accounting for phylogenetic non‐independence of species (MCMCglmm).Data deficiency in the negative impacts of alien birds is not randomly distributed. Residence time, relative brain size and alien range size were found to be strongly related to the availability of data on impacts.The availability of data on the negative impacts of alien birds is mainly influenced by the spatial and temporal extents of their alien ranges. The results of this study suggest that the impacts of some DD alien birds are likely to be minor (e.g. species with comparatively long residence times as aliens, such as the common waxbill Estrilda astrild and the Java sparrow Padda oryzivora). However, the results also suggest that some DD alien birds may have damaging impacts (e.g. species from orders of alien birds known for their impacts to biodiversity but with comparatively small alien ranges, such as the New Caledonian crow Corvus moneduloides). This implies that at least some DD alien birds may have impacts that are being overlooked. Studies examining the traits that influence the severity of alien bird impacts are needed to help to predict which DD species are more likely to impact upon biodiversity.

Retrospective pathological survey of pulmonary disease in free-ranging Amazon river dolphin Inia geoffrensis and tucuxi Sotalia fluviatilis.

The Amazon river dolphin Inia geoffrensis and tucuxi Sotalia fluviatilis are classified as Data Deficient species. Despite very limited knowledge on health and disease aspects of these species, the main threats to their conservation include incidental mortality in fishing gear, population fragmentation, habitat loss and environmental pollution. It is also suggested that underlying diseases may contribute to their mortality rates. Herein, we retrospectively describe gross and microscopic pulmonary lesions in free-ranging I. geoffrensis (n = 24) and S. fluviatilis (n = 28) found dead. Nearly 85% of the examined animals presented some kind of primary lung disease, wherein the main etiological diagnoses were verminous pneumonia by Halocercus brasiliensis (25%), bacterial pneumonia (25%) and a single case of meconium aspiration syndrome (1.9%). An etiology was not determined in 36.5% (19/52) of animals. These results indicate a high incidence of pulmonary pathology in these species, raising concerns about population impacts and potential zoonotic implications in some instances. These data may provide a scientific basis for future medical and conservation efforts focused on Amazonian dolphins.

Ichthyofaunal Diversity and Conservation Status of Puthimari Beel of Barpeta, Assam, India

Assam is recognized as one of the hotspots of freshwater fish diversity. Biodiversity and its conservation are regarded as one of the major issues of enabling sustainable use of natural resources. A survey was conducted on the Puthimari beel of Barpeta district since June 2017 till Feb-2018. Its geographical location falls under latitude 26o20'11'' N and 90o45'19'' E. Situated on the North of Barpeta district lies the Puthimari beel, which falls under Barnagar revenue circle. The beel is almost 2 km far from Sorbhog town. Primary data were collected by visiting the studied area twice a month. The local people and fishermans have been questioned and interviewed. The total area of the wetland was recorded to be 300 ha. The present investigation reveals an ichthyofaunal diversity of 46 indigenous fish species belonging to 37 Genera, 8 Orders and 19 Families. Among these 5 species are nearly threatened (NT), 01 species vulnerable (VU), 39 species least concern (LC) and 2 Data deficient (DD). Conservation status is evaluated based on IUCN data (2017-2). Order Perciformes was highly dominant representing 07 families. The Cyprinidae family was most diversified family with 16 representative species. This wetland holds numbers of economically important fish species having high market value as live fish many of which have potential value as food and ornamental. Most of the fish species once dominant in the beel are now endangered. If properly managed in scientific lines, these water bodies can play a vital role in boosting rural economy in addition to ground water recharge and flood control. So in this study an attempt has been made to know the actual status of icthyofaunistic resources of the Puthimari beel and its conservation status.

Estimating population parameters of longsnout seahorses, Hippocampus reidi (Teleostei: Syngnathidae) through mark-recapture

ABSTRACT Estimating population parameters is essential for understanding the ecology of species, which ultimately helps to assess their conservation status. The seahorse Hippocampus reidi is directly exposed to anthropogenic threats along the Brazilian coast, but the species still figures as Data Deficient (DD) at IUCN’s Red List. To provide better information on the ecology of this species, we studied how population parameters vary over time in a natural subtropical environment. By combing mark-recapture models for open and closed populations, we estimated abundance, survival rate, emigration probability, and capture probability. We marked 111 individuals, which showed a 1:1 sex ratio, and an average size of 10.5 cm. The population showed high survival rate, low temporary emigration probability and variable capture probability and abundance. Our models considering relevant biological criteria illuminate the relatively poorly known population ecology and life history of seahorses. It is our hope that this study inspires the use of mark-recapture methods in other populations of H. reidi in a collective effort to properly assess their conservation status.

Bat diversity along an altitudinal gradient in the Itabapoana drainage basin, Espírito Santo state, Brazil

Entre os mamíferos que ocorrem ao longo de todo gradiente altitudinal em montanhas no sudeste do Brasil (i.e. Mata Atlântica), os morcegos podem ser um excelente modelo de análise, porque são abundantes e apresentam todas as guildas. Nas cadeias de montanhas ao redor do mundo, a comunidade de morcegos pode apresentar dois padrões de riqueza e diversidade de espécies: 1) declínio progressivo na riqueza e diversidade de espécies à medida que a altitude aumenta; ou 2) um pico de riqueza e diversidade no nível altitudinal intermediário. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo realizar um levantamento das espécies de morcegos ocorrentes nos fragmentos localizados na bacia do rio Itabapoana verificando a influência do gradiente altitudinal nas taxas de capturas dos morcegos. Para a captura dos morcegos, utilizamos redes de neblina, armadas no nível do solo, totalizando um esforço amostral de 1.500 m2/ha para cada localidade. A região do rio Itabapoana apresentou uma elevada riqueza de espécies de morcegos (26 espécies), abrigando 44% das espécies já registradas no Espírito Santo. Nosso estudo mostrou que existe uma variação nas taxas de captura de morcegos e riqueza de espécies, com uma reposição de algumas espécies, ao longo do gradiente altitudinal na região do rio Itabapoana. As mudanças na heterogeneidade do habitat ao longo desse gradiente são provavelmente um dos fatores ecológicos fortes que afetam esses parâmetros. Além disso, os dados desse estudo permitem a expansão do conhecimento das espécies de morcegos que ocorrem na região do Itabapoana. A diversidade de espécies encontrada, juntamente com a ocorrência de espécies raras, destaca a importância da região para a conservação ajudando a entender os padrões de distribuição das espécies.

A synthesis of European seahorse taxonomy, population structure, and habitat use as a basis for assessment, monitoring and conservation

Accurate taxonomy, population demography, and habitat descriptors inform species threat assessments and the design of effective conservation measures. Here we combine published studies with new genetic, morphological and habitat data that were collected from seahorse populations located along the European and North African coastlines to help inform management decisions for European seahorses. This study confirms the presence of only two native seahorse species (Hippocampus guttulatus and H. hippocampus) across Europe, with sporadic occurrence of non-native seahorse species in European waters. For the two native species, our findings demonstrate that highly variable morphological characteristics, such as size and presence or number of cirri, are unreliable for distinguishing species. Both species exhibit sex dimorphism with females being significantly larger. Across its range, H. guttulatus were larger and found at higher densities in cooler waters, and individuals in the Black Sea were significantly smaller than in other populations. H. hippocampus were significantly larger in Senegal. Hippocampus guttulatus tends to have higher density populations than H. hippocampus when they occur sympatrically. Although these species are often associated with seagrass beds, data show both species inhabit a wide variety of shallow habitats and use a mixture of holdfasts. We suggest an international mosaic of protected areas focused on multiple habitat types as the first step to successful assessment, monitoring and conservation management of these Data Deficient species.

Shark Species on Export Products from East Java and Bali by Dna Barcoding Based on Internal Transcribed Spacer-2 (Its-2) Locus in Mitochondrial

DNA barcoding method is the mitochondrial marker for all animal species, and it is claimed as distinguishing feature from one species to another Species identification in shark products is often difficult to perform as they have morphological similarities with many other species and it is even more difficult as they are parts separated from the body for the storage. This research is aimed to know which species of sharks identified in the export products from East Java and Bali by DNA barcoding method. The samples of sharks (meat, fins, skin and bones) used were 90 samples acquired in Surabaya from the export products of East Java and Bali from 2015 to 2017. The DNA barcoding method uses universal primer through nested PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) process which is able to amplify the DNA until around 1,340 bp based on Internal Transcribed Spacer-2 (ITS-2) locus of mitochondria. Based on the result of phylogenetic analysis and the classification list by IUCN, from 90 samples of sharks acquired from export products in East Java and Bali, species identified were: 1.11% Daenia sp categorized as NE (not evaluated); 4.44% Sphyrna zygaena categorized as NT (not Threatened); 3.33% Sphyrna lewini categorized as NT (not Threatened); 10% Rhizoprionodon taylori categorized as LC (least concern); 24% Charcarhinus brevipinna categorized as NT (not Threatened); 2.22% Charcarhinus obscurus categorized as NT (not Threatened); 3.33% Charcarhinus falciformis categorized as LC (least concern); 1.11% Charcarhinus plumbeus categorized as NT (not Threatened); 27.78% Charcarhinus longimanus categorized as VU (vulnerable); 1.11% Neutrygon kuhlii categorized as NE (not evaluated); 1.11% Charcarhinus Taurus categorized as VU (vulnerable); 3.33% Rhizoprionodon longurio categorized as DD (data deficient); 1.11% Rhizoprionodon porosus categorized as DD (data deficient); 1.11% Eusphyra blochii categorized as NT (not Threatened); 4.44% Chiloscyllium griseum categorized as DD (data deficient); 5.56% Rhizoprionodon oligolinx categorized as LC (least concern); 1.11% Prionace glauca categorized as NT (not Threatened); 1.11% Rhizoprionodon lalandii categorized as DD (data deficient). Generally all species found in this research were special fish from Indo-Australian archipelago and included in IUCN red list. The government policy to prohibit export of these species was the right decision to prevent the species extinction. Keywords : ITS-2; Shark; Export Products; Java and Bali

Catch Composition of Bottom Trawl Fisheries in Düzce Coast, southwestern Black Sea

This study was performed to identify the catch composition of Düzce coast (southwestern
 Black Sea) at depths of 30-110 meters by bottom trawl between September 2014 and August
 2015. In the catch compositions of the Düzce coast, the abundance of the first, second and third
 species were Merlangius merlangus with 73.12% (1290.29 kg / km2
 ), Gobius spp. with 9.30%
 (164.04 kg/km2
 ) and Mullus barbatus with 9.05% (159.61 kg / km2), respectively. The other 33
 species make up 8.53% of total fish biomass. When seasonal distribution was examined, the total
 catch of fish were 1038.54, 2552.37, 1068.72, 5132.96 kg/km2
 , of which economic (target) fish
 species (Merlangius merlangus) constitute 745.72, 1726.14, 724.58, 4910.15 kg/km2
 in autumn,
 winter, spring and summer respectively. In this study, fishing a very high rate of discard whiting
 in little sizes draws the attention. Whiting constitutes 56% of discard. Single or sporadic captures
 were also recorded for Acipenser stellatus, Trachurus trachurus, Spicara smaris, Lophius
 piscatorius, Serranus hepatus and Hippocampus hippocampus. Moreover, in this study, red list
 status for 36 fish species belonging to 27 family in Düzce coasts were considered with the Red List
 published by the International Union for conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN).
 As a result of this comparison, it was determined that 2 species Critically Endangered (CR), 5
 species Vulnerable (VU), 22 species Least Concern (LC), 4 species Not Evaluated (NE), 2 species
 Data Deficient (DD).

Science responses to IUCN Red Listing.

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is often advocated as a tool to assist decision-making in conservation investment and research focus. It is frequently suggested that research efforts should prioritize species in higher threat categories and those that are Data Deficient (DD). We assessed the linkage between IUCN listing and research effort in DD and Critically Endangered (CR) species, two groups generally advocated as research priorities. The analysis of the change in the research output following species classification indicated a listing effect in DD species, while such effect was observed in only a minority of CR species groups. DD species, while chronically understudied, seem to be recognized as research priorities, while research effort for endangered species appears to be driven by various factors other than the IUCN listing. Optimized conservation research focus would require international science planning efforts, harmonized through international mechanisms and promoted by financial and other incentives.

Rediscovery of Atelopus subornatus Werner, 1899 (Anura: Bufonidae), with a redescription of the tadpole.

The Neotropical toads of the genus Atelopus are among the most imperiled of all amphibians (La Marca et al. 2005; Gonzalez-Maya et al. 2013; McCaffery et al. 2015). Nowadays, at least 90% of the 93 listed species are threatened and more than 77% are Critically Endangered (McCaffery et al. 2015; IUCN 2016). Colombia has 44 described species of Atelopus (Frost 2017), two of these are categorized as extinct (EX) by the IUCN (2016): A. ignescens and A. longirostris, although they were recently re-discovered in Ecuador (Tapia et al. 2017), 34 as critical endangered (CR), four as endangered (EN), two as vulnerable (VU), one species has data deficient (DD) and another one has not been evaluated. Atelopus subornatus Werner, 1899, is an endemic Colombian harlequin toad described from 2300 to 2800 m.a.s.l in the municipalities of Sibaté (Alto de Sibaté and Agua Bonita) and Fusagasuga (above Fusagasuga and Tierra Negra), in Cundinamarca (Fig. 1A), on the western flank from Cordillera Oriental of Colombia (Werner 1899; Lynch 1986; Lötters 1989, 1992). The last record of this species was in 1993 (Lötters 2005), and it currently is listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN (2016). Herein, we report the rediscovery of A. subornatus at a new locality from Tolima, Colombia (Fig. 1A), and redescribe its tadpole. The determination of the species was based on comparisons with material deposited in the amphibian collection of the Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia (ICN-UNAL) for all species of Atelopus reported from the same general area in Cundinamarca and relatively similar to A. subornatus. The specimens are housed in the Herpetological collection of the Tolima University (CZUT-A) and amphibian collection of ICN-UNAL.

Isoetes nana, a new species from the coastal mountains of southeastern Brazil.

Isoetes nana, a new species from the coastal mountains of southeastern Brazil (Serra de Itatiaia), is described, illustrated and compared to similar species. This species can be distinguished from similar species by a set of characters that include 5–15 small erect leaves reaching only up to 3.5cm long, megaspores rugulate (rarely laevigate or obscurely cristate) and microspores sparsely echinate. We include a key to identify this new species and spore images for all species that are discussed in this study. Isoetes nana is known only from the type locality, where it was reported to occur in small ponds on rocky outcrops at high elevations. We suggest it should be classified as a data deficient species based on the IUCN criteria.

Sustainability of threatened species displayed in public aquaria, with a case study of Australian sharks and rays

Zoos and public aquaria exhibit numerous threatened species globally, and in the modern context of these institutions as conservation hubs, it is crucial that displays are ecologically sustainable. Elasmobranchs (sharks and rays) are of particular conservation concern and a higher proportion of threatened species are exhibited than any other assessed vertebrate group. Many of these lack sustainable captive populations, so comprehensive assessments of sustainability may be needed to support the management of future harvests and safeguard wild populations. We propose an approach to identify species that require an assessment of sustainability. Species at risk of extinction in the wild were considered to be those assessed as threatened (CR, EN or VU) on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, or data deficient species that may be at an elevated risk of extinction due to life history traits and habitat associations. We defined sustainable captive populations as self-maintaining, or from a source population that can sustain harvest levels without risk of population declines below sustainable levels. The captive breeding and wild harvest records of at risk species displayed by Australian aquaria were examined as a case study. Two species, largetooth sawfish Pristis pristis and grey nurse shark Carcharias taurus, were found to have unsustainable captive populations and were identified as high priorities for comprehensive sustainability assessments. This review highlights the need for changes in permitting practices and zoo and aquarium record management systems to improve conservation outcomes for captive elasmobranchs.

Identification of Aves, Herpetofauna and Arthropods in Miangas Island (Indonesia), the borderline of Wallacea ecoregion

Suryawan A, Yuliantoro I, Mayasari A, Christita M. 2016. Identification of Aves, Herpetofauna and Arthropods in Miangas Island (Indonesia), the borderline of Wallacea ecoregion. Biodiversitas 18: 1528-1537. Miangas Island is located on the northeast of Wallacea and bordered by the Philippines and it belongs to Talaud archipelago. This study aims to identify the species of terrestrial wildlife in Miangas Island. Observations used the direct encounter method starting at 7:00 to 17:00 pm and they were conducted through four times visits in October and December 2015, April and May 2016. Some species were found, such as 15 species of birds, 3 species of lizards, 1 snake and 1 species of Arthropods. Hirundapus caudacutus and Butastur indicus are migrant bird species. Lamprolepis smaragdina is green and classified as tree climber type. It is included to hybrid lizard type of the Pacific and the Philippines. Based on IUCN database, Eos histrio is classified as endangered group (E), Ducula pickeringii as vulnerable (V) Todirhamphus enigma enigma is classified as near threatened group (NT), Birgus latro is classified as Data deficient (DD), while Butastur indicus, Lanius Schach, Nectarinia jugular plateni, Todirhamphus chloris, Hirundo tahitica, Hirundapus caudacutus, Egretta sacra, Ardea alba, Anthus cervinus, Motacilla cinerea, Cuculus saturatus, Passer Montanus, Ducula pickeringii, Eutropis multicarinata multicarinata, Lamprolepis smaragdina, Emoia caeruleocauda and Laticauda laticauda are classified as low risk (LC).

Population genetics and distribution data reveal conservation concerns to the sky island endemic Pithecopus megacephalus (Anura, Phyllomedusidae)

Pithecopus megacephalus is a reticulated monkey–frog species endemic to the highlands of the Espinhaco Mountain Range in southeastern Brazil, an important centre of endemism in South America. This species has a discontinuous distribution and is considered “data-deficient” by the IUCN Red List, raising concerns about its conservation. Understanding the historical dynamics and connectivity of P. megacephalus populations can provide guidelines for preservation of this species in the wild. To investigate the population dynamics of P. megacephalus, we obtained multilocus DNA data for 55 individuals from different locations along the species’ known distribution. Spatial population structure, genetic diversity and demographic parameters were evaluated using population genetic and phylogeographical tools. We also evaluated its extent of occurrence and area of occupancy to investigate extinction risk of this species. We found genetic structure along P. megacephalus’ spatial distribution in the South Espinhaco Mountain Range corresponding to three population groups: northern, central and southern. Our results could provide important data on geographic distribution and population dynamics for a Data Deficient species. Therefore, we suggest these population data, together with the species’ limited occurrence in sky island environments could be used for a more accurate classification of P. megacephalus in the IUCN list, and conservation strategies for the species should be planned accordingly.

Protected area coverage of threatened vertebrates and ecoregions in Peru: Comparison of communal, private and state reserves

Protected areas (PAs) are a conservation mainstay and arguably the most effective conservation strategy for species protection. As a ‘megadiverse’ country, Peru is a priority for conservation actions. Peruvian legislation allows for the creation of state PAs and private/communal PAs. Using publicly available species distribution and protected area data sets we evaluated the coverage of Threatened terrestrial vertebrate species distributions and ecoregions provided by both kinds of PA in Peru. Peru's state PA system covers 217,879 km2 and private/communal PAs cover 16,588 km2. Of the 462 species of Threatened and Data Deficient species we evaluated, 75% had distributions that overlapped with at least one PA but only 53% had ≥10% of their distributions within PAs, with inclusion much reduced at higher coverage targets. Of the species we evaluated, 118 species are only found in national PAs and 29 species only found in private/communal PAs. Of the 17 terrestrial ecoregions found in Peru all are represented in PAs; the national PA system included coverage of 16 and private/communal PAs protect 13. One ecoregion is only protected in private/communal PAs, whereas four are only covered in national PAs. Our results show the important role private/communal PAs can play in the protection of ecological diversity.

The complete mitochondrial genome of Anderson’s shrew mole, Uropsilus andersoni (Talpidae)

Anderson’s shrew mole (Uropsilus andersoni) is an endemic species of China and only occurs in the province of Sichuan where it is only known from Emei Mountains and adjacent small area. This species has been listed as data deficient (DD) by the IUCN red list of threatened animals and vulnerable (VU) by the red list of China’s vertebrates. The complete mitochondrial genome of the U. andersoni was determined in this study. The mitogenome is a circular molecule of 16,528 bp in length, containing 13 protein-coding genes, two ribosome RNA genes, 22 transfer RNA genes, one origin of replication on the light-strand (OL) and one control region. The new sequenced complete mitogenome of U. andersoni would provide useful information for application in conservation genetics and evolution for this species.

Notes on yellow-spotted moray eel, Echidna xanthospilos (Actinopterygii: Anguilliformes: Muraenidae), from Great Nicobar Island, India

A single specimen of Echidna xanthospilos (Bleeker, 1859) was captured off Great Nicobar Island. This finding represents a new addition to the muraenid fauna of India. This is one of the data-deficient species hitherto known only from five countries in the Indo–Pacific. The specimen is described and illustrated.

Thermal Performance Curves and the Metabolic Theory of Ecology—A Practical Guide to Models and Experiments for Parasitologists

Climate change will affect host-parasite dynamics in complex ways. The development of forecast models is necessary for proactive disease management, but past studies have frequently reported thermal performance data in idiosyncratic ways that have limited use for parameterizing thermal host-parasite models. Development of improved forecast models will require strong collaborations between experimental parasitologists and disease modelers. The purpose of this article is to facilitate such collaborations by reviewing practical considerations for describing thermal performance curves of parasite and host performance traits, and using them to predict climate change impacts on host-parasite systems. In the first section, we provide an overview of how thermal performance curves can be embedded in life-cycle-based dynamical models of parasitism, and we outline how such models can capture the net effect of multiple nonlinear temperature dependencies affecting the host-parasite dynamics. We also discuss how macroecological generalities based on the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) can be used to determine a priori parameter estimates for thermal performance curves to derive null models for data-deficient species, but we note that most of the generalities suggested by MTE remain to be tested for parasites. In the second section, we discuss empirical knowledge gaps for the temperature dependence of parasite and host performance traits, and we outline the types of data that need to be collected to inform MTE-based models for data-deficient species. We specifically emphasize the importance of (1) capturing the entire thermal response of performance traits, including lower and upper temperature thresholds, and (2) experimentally or statistically separating out the thermal responses of different performance traits (e.g., development and mortality) rather than only reporting composite measures (e.g., apparent development). Not adhering to these principles can lead to biased climate change impact predictions. In the third section, we provide a practical guide outlining how experimentalists can contribute to fill data gaps by measuring the temperature dependence of host and parasite performance traits in ways that are systematic, statistically rigorous, and consistent with the requirements of life cycle-based host-parasite models. This guide includes recommendations and practical examples illustrating (1) the use of perturbation analyses to determine experimental priorities, (2) experimental design tips for quantifying thermal response curves, and (3) statistical methods for estimating the parameters of thermal performance curves. Our hope is that this article helps researchers to maximize the value and use of future data collections for both empirical and modelling studies investigating the way in which temperature influences parasitism.

Habitat selection by the endangered Red-billed Curassow (Crax blumenbachii) in an Atlantic forest remnant

ABSTRACTUnderstanding habitat selection is important for informing conservation management actions. However, many endangered species are data deficient, especially in tropical forests. Wild populations of the endangered Red-billed Curassow are one such data-deficient species. We investigated habitat selection by Red-billed Curassows in an important Atlantic forest remnant in Espírito Santo state, Brazil. We sampled vegetation plots to test fine-scale habitat associations and used GIS tools to identify landscape-scale variables that may influence curassow habitat use. We modelled the occurrence of Red-billed Curassows to test the contribution of these variables using hierarchical partitioning analysis in R. Abundance of standing dead trees, decaying log and leaf litter depth had a negative effect on the occurrence of Red-billed Curassows. The species preferred tall forests and abundant trees with diameter at breast height of 11–30 cm. Our results indicated that the Red-billed Curassow can utilise some secondary forest habitats, and suggest a preference for more open forest habitats that may facilitate terrestrial foraging. This is the first scientific examination of habitat requirements of Red-billed Curassows and our results will aid conservation activities by improving site selection for reintroduction efforts.

Factors driving the global decline of cycad diversity.

Mounting evidence indicates that we are witnessing the sixth mass extinction period. Given the important goods and services biodiversity delivers to humans, there is a need for a continued commitment to investigate what pre-disposes some taxa to greater risk of extinction. Here, we investigate this question using a phylogenetic comparative method and fitting a cumulative link mixed effect model on biological, ecological and evolutionary data of cycads, the most threatened lineage in the plant kingdom. We identified nine groups of threats to cycads, with habitat loss, over-collection, fire and reproduction failure being the most prominent, but only four of these threats (habitat loss, over-collection, medicinal uses and reproduction failure) clustered on the cycad tree of life. This clustering suggests that closely related species may be exposed to similar threats, perhaps because of geographic regionalization of cycad genera. Nonetheless, the diversity of threats and several variables linked to the biology and ecology of cycads correlate with extinction risk (e.g. altitude, height, diameter, geographic range), and different variables seem to be linked to different IUCN status of cycads. Although their predictive power is generally < 50 %, geographic range and maximum diameter stood out as the best predictors particularly for the Vulnerable (VU) category, with a predictive power of 87 % and 69 %, respectively. Using our best model for VU, we predicted all five Data Deficient (DD) species of cycads to be in the VU category. Collectively, our results elucidate the pattern of extinction risk in cycads and, since most threats that we identified as drivers of extinction risk of cycads are anthropogenically mediated, we recommend stronger legislation to regulate human-cycad interactions and the commitment of all governments globally to implement this regulation.