Dark Scenario Research Articles

Robotisering: het kan, maar moet het ook?

Computerization and employment Computerization and employment In this debate section of the journal, the editorial board asked informed researchers to reflect on the current debates on the way in which computerization substitutes human labour. Similar to the study by Frey and Osborne (2013), some Dutch journalists predicted that many jobs in the near future are susceptible to being replaced by technology, due to continuing computerization. The researchers in this section argue, from different perspectives, that the relation between computerization and employment is far more complex, as past studies on technology already indicate. In order to get better insight into this relationship it is not sufficient to only study whether some tasks or jobs can be computerized. Next to this technical perspective, it is also important to include economic, social and ethical perspectives and study how new technology is being used, what choices can be made and how desirable it is to develop policies to deal with the possible effects. Asking different questions from different perspectives is a promising way to strengthen the debate and move away from the unilateral and dark scenarios as presented by Frey and Osborne, because there are many opportunities for decision makers to influence the effects of new technology on employment.

HDR imaging for feature tracking in challenging visibility scenes

Purpose – In visual-based applications, lighting conditions have a considerable impact on quality of the acquired images. Extremely low or high illuminated environments are a real issue for a majority of cameras due to limitations in their dynamic range. Indeed, over or under exposure might result in loss of essential information because of pixel saturation or noise. This can be critical in computer vision applications. High dynamic range (HDR) imaging technology is known to improve image rendering in such conditions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the level of performance that can be achieved for feature detection and tracking operations in images acquired with a HDR image sensor. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, four different feature detection techniques are selected and tracking algorithm is based on the pyramidal implementation of Kanade-Lucas-Tomasi (KLT) feature tracker. Tracking algorithm is run over image sequences acquired with a HDR image sensor and with a high resolution 5 Megapixel image sensor to comparatively assess them. Findings – The authors demonstrate that tracking performance is greatly improved on image sequences acquired with HDR sensor. Number and percentage of finally tracked features are several times higher than what can be achieved with a 5 Megapixel image sensor. Originality/value – The specific interest of this work focuses on the evaluation of tracking persistence of a set of initial detected features over image sequences taken in different scenes. This includes extreme illumination indoor and outdoor environments subject to direct sunlight exposure, backlighting, as well as dim light and dark scenarios.

Impact of Work Zone Lighting on Driver's Detection of Objects

Researchers conducted a closed-course study to evaluate the impact of work zone lighting on the ability of drivers to detect low-contrast objects and workers wearing high-visibility vests. Three lighting conditions were set up: no lights (dark or base condition); a portable, trailer-mounted light tower; and a portable balloon light. The dark scenario treatments confirmed that a worker wearing a retroreflective vest could be detected at significantly longer distances than a low-contrast object (a box, a target, and a tire). Researchers also confirmed that drivers tended to overdrive their headlights, especially in rural, dark scenarios. Compared with the results for the dark scenarios, the results for the illuminated roadway section showed that properly installed temporary work zone lighting could increase the distance at which workers and low-contrast objects could be detected. The results also confirmed that improper positioning of portable light towers had a negative impact on the distance at which workers and low-contrast objects could be detected and supported the theory that direct illumination by portable light towers could visually wash out workers and thus could make them more difficult to detect.

Health care for people with dementia in 2030 – Results of a multidisciplinary scenario process

BackgroundDespite extensive research funding in the field of dementia, deficits in the quality of dementia care still exist. In order to project different alternative futures of health care for people with dementia (PwD) in Germany, we have initiated a multidisciplinary scenario process (Sce-Dem). MethodsFor the scenario process we used a 6-step approach: (1) identification of relevant areas of influences via literature review and internet search, (2) systematic collection of relevant influence factors and their future projections via literature review, brainstorming and consensus workshops, (3) discussion and validation of the identified key factors in a workshop with 52 multidisciplinary, experts, to clarify their characteristics and future projections, (4) combining the relevant key factors with alternative projections in a so-called consistency matrix to estimate the consistency between the selected projections, (5) generating consistent combinations of projections using software, and (6) writing scenario stories and descriptions based on the most consistent and different combinations. ResultsAs a result of the scenario process, five consistent scenarios were developed. Two of these could be described as dark scenarios with very poor prospects. A third one has been referred to as “well-meant, but badly done”. Two scenarios entail mostly positive aspects but one of them has a tendency towards, a “health control” state. ConclusionThe more positive scenarios provide a framework for determining relevant actions in research, society, and politics.

생체인식기술의 지속사용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구 : 다크 시나리오와 브라이트 시나리오의 비교

The purpose of this study is to verify the relationship between expectancy confirmation and continuance usage intention in biometric technology. We extend the continuance usage intention model, TAM and expectation confirmation theory by adding perceived privacy, perceived security and trust. Results was analyzed by using structural equations model. The results show that satisfaction and perceived usefulness have positive effect on continuance usage intention in the bright scenario. Perceived privacy and perceived security are positive factors on perceived usefulness, and perceived privacy is positive effect on perceived security. On the other hand, the respondents who are exposed to the dark scenario have negative effects on the perceived privacy, perceived security and trust. And finally, trust has no significant effect on the perceived usefulness.

Legal safeguards for privacy and data protection in ambient intelligence

To get the maximum benefit from ambient intelligence (AmI), we need to anticipate and react to possible drawbacks and threats emerging from the new technologies in order to devise appropriate safeguards. The SWAMI project took a precautionary approach in its exploration of the privacy risks in AmI and sought ways to reduce them. It constructed four “dark scenarios” showing possible negative implications of AmI, notably for privacy protection. Legal analysis of the depicted futures showed the shortcomings of the current legal framework in being able to provide adequate privacy protection in the AmI environment. In this paper, the authors, building upon their involvement in SWAMI research as well as the further advancement of EU privacy analysis, identify various outstanding issues regarding the legal framework that still need to be resolved in order to deal with AmI in an equitable and efficacious way. This article points out some of the lacunae in the legal framework and postulates several privacy-specific safeguards aimed at overcoming them.

Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Report

In the last few decades, scenarios have provided a way of analysing the implications of alternative futures, especially as they might be impacted by new technologies. This has been no less true of ambient intelligence (AmI), which may be embedded everywhere in the not so distant future. Most of the scenarios developed by AmI enthusiasts have been rather ‘sunny’, showing how the new technologies promise to make our lives more efficient, enjoyable, productive, enriching. A European project, called Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI), deliberately developed ‘dark scenarios’ to highlight the threats to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by the new technologies. The SWAMI consortium also developed a methodological structure for deconstructing and analysing the dark scenarios. This paper takes that approach a step further by applying it to a cultural artefact, partly to test the validity, utility, applicability of the SWAMI methodology to a scenario not constructed by the consortium and partly to show how some cultural artefacts can be regarded as scenarios in their own right as well as warnings about future technologies. The cultural artefact chosen here was the Steven Spielberg film Minority Report, because it features so many AmI technologies and draws attention to the issues that have been the focus of the SWAMI project.

Gesellschaftliche Herausforderungen durch "intelligente Umgebungen" - Dunkle Szenarien als TA-Werkzeug

Intelligent interconnected devices embedded nearly everywhere will enable new services and applications but will also entail numerous threats and vulnerabilities. This article underlines the need to develop adequate safeguards in order to protect valuable assets such as privacy, identity, security, and trust if society at large is to benefit from Ambient Intelligence (AmI). As the challenge is to identify safeguards for threats and vulnerabilities that are yet to unfold, the dark scenario method developed by the SWAMI project (Safeguards in a World of AMbient Intelligence) is presented as a useful foresight tool to assist in highlighting risks that need to be addressed if AmI is to be successful. The article discusses the conceptual approach and design of the dark scenarios, provides brief examples from the scenario scripts and the systematic scenario analysis, and touches upon the major outcomes of the scenario exercise in terms of the proposed safeguards.

COULD TIGHTER PRUDENTIAL REGULATION HAVE SAVED THAILAND'S BANKS?

MANY causes have led to the onset and severity of the Asian crisis and thus also to Thailand’s economic crisis. It is, however, a conspicuous characteristic of most analyses that financial sector weaknesses and fragilities play a dominant role (e.g., IMF 1997; 1998, p. 73; BIS 1998; World Bank 1998). It is often precisely these financial sector problems that are identified as the core element of the new type of crisis to be seen in Asia, which would differentiate it from many earlier crises (Dooley 2000; Krugman 1998; Corsetti, Pesenti, and Roubini 1999; Furman and Stiglitz 1998). There can therefore be no question that financial institutions in the crisis countries did indeed exhibit severe shortcomings. Three areas of concern can be mentioned: first, the internal evaluation mechanism for loan extensions was inefficient, if not nonexistent. Second, the management of risky portfolios displayed a severe lack of experience. Third, prudential regulation was often lacking or not enforced (Kane 2000; Dekle and Kletzer 2001). These three aspects led in combination to a dark scenario as the institutions neither had the experience to address credit and market risks appropriately, nor did they feel strong incentives to improve (see also Menkhoff 2000). To cure the central problem of financial sector weakness, an obvious solution would seem to be to implement established prudential standards. These had been harmonized for industrialized countries by the 1988 Basel Accord, named after the location of the consultations which were held under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). In some respect, however, this accord is rather a framework than a set of detailed regulations. So one needs more precisely defined information, which we take from the established German case. The question is