Prices Of Dairy Products Research Articles

APPLICABILITY OF MACHINE LEARNING MODELS USING A NEURAL NETWORK FOR PREDICTING THE PARAMETERS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOOD MARKETS

Forecasting the parameters of the food market is a difficult task due to the volatility of demand, which depends on many factors. In this study, the authors attempted to implement a machine learning model based on multiple data on the food market. A boxed recurrent neural network was chosen as a prediction technique. The information basis was made up of data from 3,200 US cities for 2010-2012, reflecting characteristics that may be directly or indirectly related to the price of dairy products. The following models were used for data preprocessing, anomaly search, dimensionality reduction: AdaBoost, LogisticRegression, SVM. As a result of analytical actions, a neural network architecture has been formed for use in market forecasting: two competitive neural networks. First: 2 layers with Bidirectional GRU+Dropout. Second: 3 layers of LSTM+Dropout + Attention with skip-layers. Its use makes it possible to obtain a prediction model of the desired parameters with qualitative indicators of the validation sample - R^= 0.86. The applicability of the constructed machine learning model is considered on the example of classical agricultural production with the presentation of the stages of deployment of such a model at the enterprise level.

Applicability of machine learning models using a neural network for predicting the parameters of the development of food markets

Forecasting the parameters of the food market is a difficult task due to the volatility of demand, which depends on many factors. In this study, the authors attempted to implement a machine learning model based on multiple data on the food market. A boxed recurrent neural network was chosen as a prediction technique. The information basis was made up of data from 3,200 US cities for 2010-2012, reflecting characteristics that may be directly or indirectly related to the price of dairy products. The following models were used for data preprocessing, anomaly search, dimensionality reduction: AdaBoost, LogisticRegression, SVM. As a result of analytical actions, a neural network architecture has been formed for use in market forecasting: two competitive neural networks. First: 2 layers with Bidirectional GRU+Dropout. Second: 3 layers of LSTM+Dropout + Attention with skip-layers. Its use makes it possible to obtain a prediction model of the desired parameters with qualitative indicators of the validation sample - R^= 0.86. The applicability of the constructed machine learning model is considered on the example of classical agricultural production with the presentation of the stages of deployment of such a model at the enterprise level.

Price changes of dairy products in the European Union

This article presents changes in the prices of milk and other dairy products in the European Union (EU). First, the descriptive statistics of the prices of milk and dairy products are presented, and then correlation and regression analyses were conducted to measure the relationships between the prices. We used the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to measure the stationarity and changes in dairy product prices in the EU. At the EU level, we checked the changes in prices of butter, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, Cheddar, Edam, Gouda, Emmental and whey powder. Our analysis confirmed that the butter, skim milk powder, whole milk powder, Cheddar, Edam and Gouda processes depend on previous values. The biggest price changes were observed in whey powder (34.12%), butter (24.46%) and skim milk powder (21.78%).

Assessing Livestock Sector Development of India in the Era of Global Trade Distortions

In the WTO regime, surging imports have not only affected farm incomes but also employment in many developing countries. Consequent upon cheap imports and absence of adequate protection measures, safeguarding income and livelihood of poor farmers have emerged issues that need to be addressed by policy makers. As rightly pointed out, the developing world have suddenly become the children of a lesser god and they are the neo-poor. Further, though producer milk prices in India stand significantly lower than US and Western Europe, dairy product prices are relatively higher than international market prices owing to domestic processing inefficiencies in India. An earlier study assessed the impact of GATT on dairy products and projected the world dairy product prices to rise by about 2.3 per cent in real terms by the year 2002. The study categorically emphasized on the fact that domestic product prices would remain higher than world market prices despite expected surge in world market prices. This necessitates improvement in production and processing efficiency of livestock sector in India to make it competitive with imports. India is already price competitive in the world market and when subsidies from competitive producers like USA and EU countries are removed, the situation will make India more price competitive. In case India is not able to capture the world market in the event of removal of subsidies from the modern bloc countries, the other competitors like Australia and New Zealand would capture this market and enter in a big way to flood markets with their dairy products, making us loosing our competitiveness and a great opportunity in the new trade regime.

Price volatility of milk and dairy products in Poland after accession to the EU

Milk and dairy products help meet the nutritional needs of the population. The main goal of this research was to analyse price volatility of milk and dairy products in Poland after accession to the European Union (EU). Price is the main economic influencer. We used 161 monthly observations from 01. 2007 to 05. 2020 to analyse the price changes. To measure the volatility, we have used Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF test), Autoregressive-Moving-Average model (ARMA model), and Granger test. Our research confirmed high volatility of milk and dairy products prices. The ARMA model confirmed that the dairy product prices are stationary. Milk, butter and Gouda cheese are also useful for forecasting.

Time Series Model to Forecast the Pricing of Dairy Products

Seasonal patterns and patterns of food production are linked with each other, which contributes to have a significant impact on the economy of a country. Seasons and food production patterns are linked with each other. Because of this, it is of the utmost importance to establish projections about the production of food patterns that are sensitive to variations in the climate, which will ultimately result in satisfied customers and successful production. Because of this, it is vital to establish trustworthy techniques of dairy production forecasting in order to prevent a shortage of dairy production in an industry. As a result, the purpose of this study is to construct a model that is capable of reliably predicting the price of dairy products in relation to changes in the climate. In the course of the research for the thesis, Ireland will serve as the case study, and a mix of time series and machine learning models will be utilized in order to make price predictions. A time series of data relating to dairy production from the year 1990 to 2019 is extracted and utilized as a data source for dairy products. This data source will be used until the year 2019. The work that was actually done for the proposed paper makes use of the entire dataset for training purposes and makes use of the pricing list for the previous year for the testing phase. These are then utilized as variables in order to assess product yields as well as product losses. The implementation, on the other hand, is based on the principles of time series as well as four machine learning algorithms, specifically ARIMA, ARIMA Garch, SEM, and SARIMA. In compared to the results of other models, it was shown that the SARIMA model produced superior results. In addition, the findings were computed on the basis of an assessment matrix that took into account the root mean square error.

Quality and Price Variation in the Dairy Value Chian: A Case Study in <em>Monaragala</em> District, Sri Lanka

Low value addition, quality and price variations have been recognized as common problems of value chains in developing countries. Objective of the present study was to examine the quality and price variations throughout the dairy value chain in a less developed region in Sri Lanka. Wellawaya divisional secretariat of Monaragala district was purposively selected as the study area. Primary data were collected by using pre-tested, structured questionnaires. Laboratory tests of milk and curd samples were carried out to check the quality variation using standard methods. Milk samples were collected from three levels including farmer (10), processor (10 from each, milk and curd) and retailer (10) to determine the quality variation. According to the results, price of curd and yoghurt at consumer level was increased by 36% and 77% compared to the farm gate price. Farmer received the highest profit per liter of milk (68.00 LKR) in the shortest value chain (D) out of four main chains identified. The markets’ margin was estimated at 36%. Farmer had the largest share of 64% followed by processor (20%), retailer (8%), collector (4%), and wholesaler (4%). It was evident that farmers received fair profit through all four dairy value chains. However, solid non-fat percentage, specific gravity and pH of analyzed samples through the value chain were not comply with the standards. In conclusion, the prices of dairy products have increased while deteriorating the quality along the chain. It is therefore important to educate and train actors throughout the dairy value chain on quality management.

The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on retail dairy prices

AbstractThis article focuses on the immediate impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on retail prices of dairy products in the United States. Using weekly data from the US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, we analyze a change in dairy prices coinciding with COVID‐19 restrictions. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that prices of all dairy products decreased by 8% at the time that stay at home orders and changes in retail activities took place. When focusing on specific dairy categories, we find a varying degree of price declines, but also many prices that did not change. We also analyze store promotional advertisements for dairy products and find the expected decline in the number of store ads. This study has implications for policymakers concerned about the impact of COVID‐19 on retail food prices in the United States. [EconLit citations: Q11; Q18]

ECONOMIC AND NON-ECONOMIC PREMISES AFFECTING CONSUMER PURCHASING BEHAVIOUR OF FERMENTED MILK PRODUCTS

The study aims to identify the factors that influence consumer behaviour on the dairy market, with particular emphasis on the yogurt market. Based on the available data and statistical studies, the main directions of changes in production and consumption as well as directions of changes in prices of dairy products in Poland were presented. The changes taking place on the yogurt market are also presented in more detail. The practical part of the study presents results of the survey conducted on the above-mentioned issues in a group of 465 intentionally selected respondents. According to the respondents, yogurt, milk and other dairy products are commonly consumed and purchase decisions are usually made routinely. According to the respondents, their consumption is influenced, among other things, by the possibility of direct consumption and their habits. The main determinants of purchasing these products included sensory impressions and expiry date, as well as brand loyalty. The main barriers related to the purchase were the high price of branded products as well as the lack of knowledge of different brands.

Analysis of Dairy Product Price Transmission in Hungary: A Nonlinear ARDL Model

This paper addresses the assessment of the price transmission of dairy products in Hungary. Monthly prices are used in testing the hypothesis of asymmetric price transmission between farmers and retailers. The magnitude of short- and long-run asymmetric transmission between price levels is measured through a nonlinear autoregressive distributed model (NARDL). The cointegration of variables is validated through bounds test of the NARDL model. The estimated NARDL model proves the existence of long- and short-run asymmetric relationships between producer milk price and most retailer dairy product prices. Furthermore, the model confirms the presence of a significantly positive long-run price asymmetry for butter, buttercream, sour cream, and Trappista cheese. The positive long-run price transmission asymmetry results could be explained by the strong market power of milk processors, which are granted through their concentrations and the absence of competitiveness in the market. The short-run asymmetry of price transmission could be explained by implementing some policy interventions, such as the milk quotas, which limit milk production. Analyzing the asymmetric relationship between the producer milk price and the retailer dairy product prices could give a clear vision of the dairy sector and how prices move between market actors, highlighting the retailers’ purchasing power feature, and its role in determining the market price interaction.

Lessons from Working of Dairy Co-operatives under WTO Regime in India

Though dairy industry is the single largest contributor to India’s GDP and involves over 80 million small farming households with its profound social impact, the opening up of the Indian market to an influx of foreign goods has raised much concern about the status of the Indian dairy industry in the era of WTO regime where it has to face significant competition from foreign players. The subsidies provided by the developed countries to their dairy farmers has helped them to lower their price of dairy products and consequently influencing the world prices, affecting, in turn, the farming community in developing world as this provides good opportunities for the traders to import cheaper milk products and thereby earn high profits at the expense of farmers belonging to developing world like India.

Gender differences in consumer preferences when buying dairy products in Slovakia and Russia

In spite of geographical and culture differences between examined countries, there can be found similarities in consumer behavior of men and woman and also the similar tendencies on the dairy product market. In the last decade different fields of science concerns with the topic of gender differences more frequently. The article is based on a research of consumers' overall attitude to dairy products in Slovakia and Russia. The important role of gender differences underlines the outcomes of the questionnaire survey. Kruskal-Wallis test and Bonferroni correction was applied to verify the hypothesis whether there is a dependency between gender of the respondents and their attitude while choosing the dairy products in both countries. Analysis showed that in both countries women tend to buy dairy products more often than men. Also consumers prefer more domestic products, but Russian not as significantly as Slovakian. In both countries consumers consider the price of dairy products as high, but they don”™t outline the price as the most important factor when choosing dairy products. At the same time, both genders consider quality as the most important factor. These results indicate the existence of a niche at the Russian market, which could be used by Slovak dairy producers who can possibly penetrate Russian market. In addition, the similar marketing strategy for both, Slovak and Russian market can be used if the advertisement will be sensitively focused on the gender.

Trends of the Dairy Enterprises Development in the Context of Accounting Support Improvement

The article deals with the essence of the accounting process at dairy processing enterprises. It is determined that the development of Ukrainian agriculture should be carried out on an innovative basis. Innovation in agriculture comprises the improvement of technologies, changes in technology, ecology, economics, etc. It is proved that the accounting and the calculation process at the milk processing enterprises are complex and multifaceted. It was mentioned that in a market-oriented economy, the existing system of inventories accounting cannot meet the information needs of managers, since it has a number of shortcomings, namely: there is no integration of all types of accounting to provide managers with the necessary information; data on deviations of actual indicators from normative ones are not daily displayed, therefore, they are not used in production management; the control of the use of inventories is limited by the retrospective control of the actual cost price, when losses and overexpenditure cannot be changed; the system of accounting and assessment of return waste does not contribute to their rational use and distorts data on the cost of production. It has been found out that the initial internal documentation at the enterprises of the industry needs to be improved in order to ensure the accuracy of expenses accounting and calculation of the cost price of dairy products of own production. Changes to the forms of the Journal of the Milk Yield Accounting have been introduced, which will facilitate the establishment of document circulation and speeding up the movement of dairy products between producers and purveying enterprises The main directions of improvement of the competitiveness of products are defined: creation of environmentally friendly products, improvement of taste qualities of dairy products, production of dietary goods and goods for patients with diabetes, increase of the share of non-fat and skimmed products, reduction of food preservative content, introduction of non-traditional types of dairy products with new consumer properties. It is concluded that the issue of accounting development and ways of its improvement at dairy processing enterprises is multifaceted and remains unsolved

Światowe i krajowe ceny żywności w latach 2016-2017

Otwarcie polskiej gospodarki w wyniku transformacji systemowej i integracji europejskiej zwiększyło jej zależność od zjawisk o charakterze globalnym. W ostatniej dekadzie światowe ceny i podaż żywności doświadczały poważnych szoków, co miało istotne konsekwencje dla polskiego rynku żywnościowego. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie zmian cen żywności w Polsce w latach 2016-2017 na tle tendencji występujących na rynkach światowych, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem rynku unijnego, określenie siły ich wzajemnych powiązań oraz wskazanie czynników warunkujących te procesy. W wyniku przeprowadzonych analiz stwierdzono, że w Polsce w badanym okresie ceny żywności rosły szybciej niż w UE, ale wolniej niż na rynkach światowych, wykazywały mniejszą wahliwość niż na rynkach zewnętrznych oraz bardzo wysoką korelację ze zmianami cen w UE. Powiązanie z rynkiem unijnym było szczególnie widoczne w przypadku cen produktów mlecznych, zbóż, mięsa wieprzowego, roślin oleistych i cukru.

Postgenomics Characterization of an Essential Genetic Determinant of Mammary Pathogenic Escherichia coli.

ABSTRACTEscherichia coli are major bacterial pathogens causing bovine mastitis, a disease of great economic impact on dairy production worldwide. This work aimed to study the virulence determinants of mammary pathogenic E. coli (MPEC). By whole-genome sequencing analysis of 40 MPEC and 22 environmental (“dairy-farm” E. coli [DFEC]) strains, we found that only the fec locus (fecIRABCDE) for ferric dicitrate uptake was present in the core genome of MPEC and that it was absent in DFEC genomes (P < 0.05). Expression of the FecA receptor in the outer membrane was shown to be citrate dependent by mass spectrometry. FecA was overexpressed when bacteria were grown in milk. Transcription of the fecA gene and of the inner membrane transport component fecB gene was upregulated in bacteria recovered from experimental intramammary infection. The presence of the fec system was shown to affect the ability of E. coli to grow in milk. While the rate of growth in milk of fec-positive (fec+) DFEC was similar to that of MPEC, it was significantly lower in DFEC lacking fec. Furthermore, deletion of fec reduced the rate of growth in milk of MPEC strain P4, whereas fec-transformed non-mammary gland-pathogenic DFEC strain K71 gained the phenotype of the level of growth in milk observed in MPEC. The role of fec in E. coli intramammary pathogenicity was investigated in vivo in cows, with results showing that an MPEC P4 mutant lacking fec lost its ability to induce mastitis, whereas the fec+ DFEC K71 mutant was able to trigger intramammary inflammation. For the first time, a single molecular locus was shown to be crucial in MPEC pathogenicity.

Ward Thomas and Sons, Inc

An MBA student attempts to use linear programming to help his family reduce feeding costs on their dairy farm. The objectives of the case include practice at formulating linear-programming problems (in particular, deciding what level of detail is appropriate) and recognizing that insights gained from building linear-programming models often exceed the original intent. Excerpt UVA-QA-0378 Rev. Feb., 4, 2013 WARD THOMAS AND SONS, INC. Another beautiful August day in 1987 was drawing to a close as Brian Thomas reviewed the data he had collected on milk production at Ward Thomas and Sons, Inc. (WT&S). Caught in the profitability squeeze affecting the dairy industry nationwide, WT&S had suffered through several years of minimal or negative profit from its milking operations. Thomas, an MBA student, was anxious to see if he could help his family by using his recently acquired knowledge of linear programming to reduce the cost of feeding the dairy herd, thereby improving the farm's competitive position. The Dairy Industry The decade of the 1980s had not been kind to the dairy industry as it struggled through a period of declining profitability. Although farmers had become more productive (average annual milk production per cow had increased from 7,761 lb. in 1940 to 15,528 lb. in 1987), people had become more health conscious. As a result, per capita consumption of milk and milk-related products had remained constant or, in some cases, declined. In addition, the price of dairy products had not kept pace with inflation, and farm profit margins had narrowed considerably. Federal milk-subsidy programs had been cut back, lowering the level of payments to farmers. In the mid-1980s, the Department of Agriculture had even implemented a temporary program that paid farmers to sell entire herds and discontinue dairy farming in an effort to lower the total supply of milk. . . .

The effects of retail concentration on retail dairy product prices in the United States

This study provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between grocery retail concentration and retail dairy product prices in the United States. The analysis was performed based on a unique data set on store-level retail prices provided by the Information Resources Inc. Further, alternative measures of retail concentration were considered, which included revenue and store selling space-based Herfindahl-Hirschman Index that were computed based on a Nielsen TDLinx data set on store characteristics. Results from a reduced-form empirical framework estimated via panel data techniques indicated that grocery retail concentration had a positive statistically significant effect on retail dairy product prices in the analyzed locations during the analyzed period of time. Specifically, a 10% increase in concentration was found to lead to a 0.46% rise in retail dairy product prices. This central result was robust to the way in which retail concentration was measured and was consistent with broader empirical evidence in the literature on retail market power.

Efficiency of Hedging Against Fluctuating Prices of Dairy Products

This paper investigates hedging and cross-hedging internationally traded milk derivative products with internationally traded commodities, recently launched New Zealand dairy futures, New Zealand agricultural products, and mature United States dairy market futures. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we show that international dairy commodities are a distinct commodities subgroup, as changes in prices of dairy products are uncorrelated with other worldwide traded commodities. Second, we show that New Zealand Stock Exchange dairy futures are an effective tool for hedging exposure to smaller size trades and may not necessarily be of large positions as required by cooperatives and multinationals

Cross-Hedging on the Milk-Derived Product Market

This paper investigates hedging and cross-hedging internationally traded milk derivative products with internationally traded commodities, recently launched New Zealand dairy futures, New Zealand agricultural products, and mature United States dairy market futures. The contribution of the paper is threefold. First, we show that international dairy commodities are a distinct commodities subgroup, as changes in prices of dairy products are uncorrelated with other worldwide traded commodities. Second, New Zealand Stock Exchange dairy futures are an effective tool for hedging exposure to international dairy commodities. Third, Chicago Mercantile Exchange dairy futures are inefficient both for hedging international dairy commodities and for hedging US dairy commodities. Our findings have important implications for understanding efficient methods of hedging with futures contracts on highly regulated markets with government agency interventions.

Imperfect competition, border protection and consumer boycott: The future of the dairy industry in Israel

Recent increases in prices of dairy products in Israel led to consumer unrest and boycotts against dairy producers during the summer of 2011. The Israeli dairy industry is highly distorted with production quotas and administered prices for raw milk, tariff rate quotas and an oligopoly in dairy processing. Since the issue of self-sufficiency and food security is at the top of Israel's national priorities, the future of the dairy industry is generating heated debate. Thus, we use a general equilibrium model to estimate the effects associated with particular alternative policies actually discussed to liberalize the Israeli dairy industry.