Customs Data Research Articles

Margins, concentration, and the performance of firms in international trade: Evidence from Japanese customs data

Margins, concentration, and the performance of firms in international trade: Evidence from Japanese customs data

Wall, Wall in the Mirror: Which Is the Sturdiest of Them All?

This research examines the comparative effectiveness of physical versus virtual border walls in managing illegal border crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border, focusing on Yuma, Arizona, and Laredo, Texas. It addresses the question of which type of infrastructure is more efficient in reducing migration and how these approaches influence crossing patterns. Previous studies have largely concentrated on other factors of migration such as economic conditions, overlooking the role of evolving border security systems. This gap in the literature calls for a deeper analysis of these evolving strategies. Utilizing U.S. Customs and Border Protection data from 2020 to 2024, the study analyzes border encounters in these regions, employing time series analysis to investigate shifts in crossing rates and demographic trends. Our findings reveal that physical barriers are effective when properly maintained but lose deterrence power when consistent maintenance and construction is absent. Conversely, virtual walls provide consistent monitoring but are less effective in significantly deterring crossings. Both methods present significant ethical concerns, as physical walls drive migrants to more dangerous routes, while virtual walls amplify surveillance and privacy issues. We conclude that a hybrid approach, integrating physical and technological solutions, could better balance migration management with ethical border enforcement.

Export Spells and the Position of Global Value Chain: Evidence from China’s Industrial Firms

The international division of labor has entered the era of the global value chain (GVC) due to the continuous influence of the scientific and technological revolution. At the same time, sustainable development has taken center stage in the evolution of international trade, and the export spell is an important indicator to measure the sustainable development of export trade. Based on the China customs data, the Chinese industrial enterprises database and the Chinese input-output table from 2000 to 2012, this paper uses the survival analysis method to estimate the enterprises’ export spells and calculate their positions in the GVC through upstreamness. It then investigates the impact of export spells on the position changes of the GVC enterprises. According to the paper, export enterprises near the bottom of the GVC are more vulnerable to extinction. And the duration of enterprises’ export spells has a U-shaped relationship with their positions in the GVC, which means that enterprises will continue to move downstream of the GVC as duration increases, but positions will shift upstream if duration reaches the inflection point. The mechanism test shows that the quality of export products is an important channel through which the duration of enterprises’ export spells influences their GVC positions.

Digital trade liberalization and quality upgrading: evidence from Chinese intermediate imports

ABSTRACT This article investigates how the import quality of intermediate products responds to digital trade liberalization using Chinese Customs data and the composite index of digital trade liberalization obtained from OECD database for 2014–2019. The results reveal that digital trade liberalization has significantly improved the quality of Chinese manufacturing intermediate imports. Further mechanism tests show that digital trade liberalization will boost the improvements through trade cost reduction effects. For the influence path, digital trade liberalization will promote the quality upgrading through both intensive and extensive margins. The heterogeneity analyses find that imports from countries with high economic developments experienced larger quality promotion than those from lower economic area. Meanwhile, the quality upgrading effects of digital trade liberalization are mainly reflected in Chinese non-comparative industries, such as downstream, digital-intensive, R&D-intensive and technology-intensive industries. Moreover, compared to homogeneous products and those by processing trade mode, the quality of intermediate imports for differentiated products by general trade are more responsive to the liberalization of digital trade barriers.

Heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Thailand: Evidence from micro data

We use transaction-level customs data and show that there is significant the Thai border. Our findings uncover several structural determinants of ERPT, where we document lower ERPT for (i) prices of differentiated goods, (ii) firms with a higher degree of market power, (iii) prices of goods controlled by the government and (iv) goods invoiced in the local currency. We also find that for the large majority of Thai imports that are invoiced in the US dollar under the dominant currency pricing (DCP) paradigm, price responses to the US dollar are much stronger than those associated with the bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis the exporters' currency, but only in the short run. Finally, by investigating state-dependent properties of ERPT, we find that small exchange rate changes are associated with higher ERPT, while the degree of pass-through is stronger during episodes of depreciations rather than appreciations, particularly for goods that practice DCP.

Distribution margins and distribution-oriented FDI: Evidence from China

This paper constructs a new measure of distribution margins that covers more countries than that in the World Input–Output Database. Based on this measure, we develop a set of stylized facts and examine the effect of distribution margins on exporters' distribution-oriented foreign direct investment decision using customs data and foreign direct investment decision data from China. We find that higher distribution margins in destination countries drive exporters to conduct distribution-oriented foreign direct investment. Compared with specialized export intermediaries, manufacturers have a greater incentive to invest in distribution sectors abroad when faced with higher distribution margins.

Estimating The Effects Of COVID-19 On Globalized Markets For Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients.

Global supply chains for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are highly centralized in certain countries and are susceptible to supply-chain shocks. However, there is no systematic monitoring or global coordination to manage risk and ensure equitable supply continuity during public health emergencies. In this study, we applied quasi-experimental methods on shipment-level customs data to determine how prices and export volume for APIs exported from India were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that API prices for key essential medicines not used for COVID-19 did not change significantly in the year after the World Health Organization pandemic declaration, but volume decreased by 80percent. Prices for medicines speculatively repurposed for COVID-19, such as hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin, increased by as much as 250percent compared with prices for nonrepurposed medicines, but only ivermectin saw a decrease in volume. Systematic monitoring of API markets, investments to promote supply diversification, and legal and political reforms to disincentivize price speculation could support supply-chain resilience and safeguard access to medicines.

Distribution of export size, Pareto exponent and financial crisis

This paper studies the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the distribution of firms’ export sizes. Using Chinese customs data from 2003 to 2013, we first show that firms’ export sizes follow a Pareto distribution. By applying a difference-in-differences method, we find that the 2008 financial crisis induced significant changes in the values of the Pareto exponents. We argue that variations in the distribution of export size signal resource reallocations in the export sector at the macro level and are associated with exporters’ adjustments to their exporting behavior at the micro level. The findings suggest that the Pareto exponent is an informative indicator and offers policymakers a better understanding of firm-level adjustments to exporting behavior in the presence of external negative shocks.

Supply Shocks in Global Value Chains and Export Performance: Evidence from Bangladesh Using Triple Difference-in-Differences

In this paper, we evaluate how supply shocks in global value chains, such as the lockdown in China during the coronavirus pandemic, affected firm-product-level export performance in Bangladesh, which is a least-developed country where domestic inputs are inadequate due to capacity constraints. Transaction-level customs data on the universe of Bangladeshi apparel manufacturing firms are used in the analysis. We apply a triple difference-in-differences approach to compare the woven apparel exports of the firms that relied on China for inputs before and after the lockdown with those of knit apparel and firms that depended on the rest of the world as a comparison group. The results show that firms exposed to the Chinese input supply shock experienced a 36.5% decline in woven apparel exports after the lockdown. A plausible explanation for the decline in exports is the reduced shipment size driven by the constrained production capacity due to the shortage of inputs from China. We also find that exposed firms whose exports were highly concentrated in the European Union and the United States incurred an additional 18% decline compared to other firms.

Taxation with information: Impacts of customs data exchange on tax evasion in Pakistan

A key challenge for developing countries is improving border taxes enforcement. This study examines whether the Electronic Data Exchange project between Pakistan and China can reduce tax evasion at the Pakistan border. This data exchange significantly reduced the trade gap in consumer goods between China’s reported exports to Pakistan and Pakistan’s reported imports from China, compared to non-consumer goods. These results are consistent with the weak self-enforcing incentives of value-added tax at the consumer stage. Moreover, the data exchange primarily reduced the trade gap by limiting the underreporting of prices rather than reducing the underreporting of quantities, partly fulfilling the project’s original intention. Further exploratory analysis reveals that the data exchange contributed to a reduction in export prices, indicating that Chinese exporters might have been absorbing a portion of the tax burden. This study suggests that using export declarations to improve tax enforcement might not increase tax revenue, as importers and exporters could alter their behavior strategically.

EU Customs Data Hub: Data-Driven Approach to Customs in an Ever-Growing Digitalised Custom Landscape

EU Customs Data Hub: Data-Driven Approach to Customs in an Ever-Growing Digitalised Custom Landscape

The Impact of Access to Intermediate Inputs on Export Margins: Firm-Level Evidence from the Regression Decomposition Approach

This paper analyzes how export margins responded to an intermediate input supply shock caused by the 2020 lockdown in China. We use regression decomposition with triple and quadruple difference-in-differences models to identify causal impacts and mitigate potential heterogeneity in transaction-level customs data from the Bangladesh apparel manufacturing industry. The triple difference estimate shows that the average export value per firm–product–destination combination declined by approximately 65%, leading to a decrease in overall exports of woven apparel from Bangladesh. The input supply shock also adversely affected the subgroups of firms across various firm-level characteristics along the intensive margin. Moreover, the export market share decomposition reveals that the shock significantly affected intensive margins by decreasing incumbents’ market allocation by 9%. An equivalent increase in extensive margins led to a readjustment in the market allocation, leading to fewer market leavers and slightly more new market entrants. Our results indicate that Bangladesh’s exports mostly decreased due to the smaller quantities of products exported rather than there being fewer firms, destinations, or products involved in export trade. There were significant market share reallocations that occurred after the Chinese input supply shock. An appropriate policy stance is required for sustainable export sector growth strategies, which will enhance the country’s defense against potential future shocks and foster the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Bangladesh.

Import of digital products and production fragmentation

Empowering traditional manufacturing through the digital economy can not only enhance the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing enterprises, but also enhance the degree of specialization of enterprises by optimizing the industrial structure, thus enhancing the embeddedness of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain. Based on this background, on the one hand, this paper extracts and integrates digital product information from China Customs data. On the other hand, this paper constructs the number of production processes of enterprises as a proxy variable for production fragmentation. Finally, by matching these two databases, we get the production segmentation data of Chinese enterprises' digital product import from 2000 to 2014. We found that improving the penetration degree of digital technology by importing digital products can effectively promote the production fragmentation. In order to further clarify the mechanism, we divided the digital products into final and intermediate kinds and found that firms importing digital final goods have a larger marginal impact on their production fragmentation.

It's a match! Linking foreign counterparts in Italian customs data to their balance sheets

This paper describes the methodology underlying the matching between extra-EU counterparts in the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency data with firms in the Bureau van Dijk Orbis database. Through different validation exercises, we show that the matches stemming from our proposed procedure are largely correct regarding both records and transaction values. The resulting corresponding tables can serve as a useful tool to shed light on the features of the counterparts of Italian firms active in international trade.

The Path Innovation of Regional Economic Growth: Data Analysis Based on China

AbstractInnovative development to some extent overcomes the path-dependent characteristics of knowledge proximity, and the diversity and complexity of regional knowledge and technology foster regional economic growth. This study constructs a dynamic mechanism for maximizing the enterprise profit to explore the conditions enabling regions that can achieve knowledge accumulation and technological leapfrogging. Utilizing the fitness landscape methodology based on customs data from 30 provinces in China and employing genetic algorithms, we analyze two modes of enterprises with similar and different initial conditions under varying leapfrogging scenarios. By applying profit maximization rules within the fitness landscape of the product space, we examine how to promote regional industrial transformation and upgrade. The results indicate that a larger leap range in the production of products by enterprises, reflecting stronger innovative capabilities, significantly enhances the region’s ability for industrial transformation and upgrade. There is a strong positive relationship between the initial industrial foundation and regional economic development. When regions share a similar industrial base, the complexity of regional knowledge becomes more critical. Therefore, an increase in the foundational development of industries and technology-intensive products can enhance the potential for regional path innovation. Past research has primarily been based on the path dependence theory, emphasizing that the most crucial aspect for underdeveloped economies is the accumulation and development of foundational capabilities. However, our study contends that, for emerging economies, it is crucial to enhance the diversity and complexity of knowledge and technology. Particularly, it is essential to, based on a comprehensive understanding of their own strengths, open up new areas and new arenas in development, continually shaping new growth drivers and new strengths. This emerges as a significant factor in regional growth and leapfrog development.

Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains

We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these long-term relationships--which the literature has termed "Japanese" due to their introduction by Japanese firms--from spot-market relationships in customs data. We show that the use of "Japanese" relationships varies intuitively across trading partners and products and find that the use of such relationships increases after a reduction in the possibility of a trade war. Extending the standard general equilibrium trade model to encompass potential trade wars and relational contracts, we estimate that eliminating "Japanese" procurement reduces welfare about a third as much as moving to autarky.

Global value chain embeddedness, technology spillover and enterprise innovation

Innovation is the first driving force for high-quality economic development, and the global value chain (GVC) with intermediate goods as the carrier is an essential channel for international technology spillovers. This paper conducts a comprehensive examination of the impact of GVC embeddedness on enterprise innovation from the perspective of two-way embedding. An empirical test using the UIBE GVC Indicators data, Chinese Industrial Enterprise data, China Customs data, and enterprise patent data shows that GVC embeddedness significantly promotes enterprise innovation. The effect of backward embeddedness is greater than that of forward embeddedness. However, the innovation effect of GVC embeddedness is heterogeneous due to different innovation types, embeddedness depths, ownership, trade patterns, and locations of enterprises. Meanwhile, the technology spillovers are an essential channel for GVC embeddedness to promote enterprise innovation. By uncovering the role mechanism of GVC embeddedness in influencing enterprise innovation from the perspective of technology spillovers, this paper offers a new way of thinking to fully unleash the innovation effect of GVC embeddedness.

The U-shaped impact of export quality on firms' innovation output: Empirical evidence from China.

Ensuring product quality plays a pivotal role in the successful execution of new product development and serves as a cornerstone for fostering innovation within enterprises. In this study, we investigate the impact of export quality at the firm level on innovation outcomes, utilizing data from Chinese publicly listed companies and customs data spanning the period from 2010 to 2015. Our analysis uncovers a notable U-shaped relationship between export quality and innovation output in Chinese manufacturing enterprises, particularly with respect to invention patents and utility model patents. Subsequent exploration of heterogeneity reveals that this U-shaped relationship is consistent for non-state-owned enterprises, firms operating in high-technology sectors, young firms, firms exporting to high-income countries, firms situated in the eastern region, and firms engaged in processing trade. Additionally, we find a positively significant effect of Chinese manufacturing export quality on the innovation output of firms exclusively involved in general trade. This paper's key contribution lies in identifying the U-shaped influence of export quality on firms' innovation output and its applicability. The findings suggest that Chinese manufacturing enterprises need to improve the quality of their export products on a long-term and sustained basis. A series of quality standards for the dynamic development of different industries should be formulated, and actively safeguard the innovation needs of these enterprises, thereby enhancing the value chain position of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.

Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China's mechanical and electrical product exports.

Economic policy uncertainty has had an important impact on trade and sustainable economic development. Especially in some specific industries, uncertainty has increased dramatically. The extant related literature mainly analyzes the nexus between uncertainty and trade across different industries and focuses less on a specific industry. Using Chinese customs data on HS 8-digit products over the period of 2000-2013, this paper first investigates the impact of both foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and domestic intra-industry trade on China's mechanical and electrical product exports to 23 trading partners and applies pooled OLS regressions to conduct an empirical study. This paper finds that EPU has a significant inhibition effect on mechanical and electrical product exports; conversely, intra-industry trade can both significantly promote exports and alleviate the inhibition effect of EPU. In addition, the export impact of EPU varied with different trade patterns. It can significantly inhibit processing exports, while it has no effect on ordinary exports. The results of this paper indicate that in the context of increasing uncertainty, our findings could have far-reaching policy implications for China to build a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation.

Moving Towards Digital Trade Transformation in Bangladesh Prospects and Challenges for Implementing Digital Trade

Bangladesh is currently making preparations to transform its entire trade onto a digital platform. Bangladesh is prepared to initiate this transformation through the implementation of logistics, legal, technological, and knowledge-based support mechanisms. This study examines the ways by which the implementation of these supports can be compelled within the structure of international frameworks. To find that possible ways the article seeks to evaluate the evidence that supports including updated laws and regulation, customs house etc., the notion that digital trade is predominantly a tradeable and compatible platform, aligning with the established framework of traditional paper-based transactions. This study employs digital technology to investigate the transformative impact it has had on international trade procedures. This research also investigates the effects of digitization in trade transactions on the global competitiveness of Bangladesh. This research also identifies and analyze the challenges and opportunities associated with the implementation of digital trade in comparison to traditional trade operations, which is associated with the implementation of the Bangladesh Single Window (BSW) system within the entire transformation of trade in ASYCODA (The Automated System for Customs Data) World Systems. The BSW & ASYCODA systems are designed to enhance the interchange of information and promote connectivity between public and commercial trade-related bodies in Bangladesh. To understand the perceptions of the stakeholders’ primary data has collected through a descriptive research where a survey questionnaire has used for this purpose, along with that secondary data sources are also used to achieve the desired outcome. This study finding will enhance our comprehension of the effects of digitization on global trade and offer vital insights that will assist stakeholders in attaining sustainable growth and fostering innovation. The digital trade transition represents a new and promising possibility in the context of Bangladesh in the area of trade transactions. This study identified how a nation undergoes a steady transition from traditional trade practices to digital transformation.