Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China's mechanical and electrical product exports.

Abstract

Economic policy uncertainty has had an important impact on trade and sustainable economic development. Especially in some specific industries, uncertainty has increased dramatically. The extant related literature mainly analyzes the nexus between uncertainty and trade across different industries and focuses less on a specific industry. Using Chinese customs data on HS 8-digit products over the period of 2000-2013, this paper first investigates the impact of both foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and domestic intra-industry trade on China's mechanical and electrical product exports to 23 trading partners and applies pooled OLS regressions to conduct an empirical study. This paper finds that EPU has a significant inhibition effect on mechanical and electrical product exports; conversely, intra-industry trade can both significantly promote exports and alleviate the inhibition effect of EPU. In addition, the export impact of EPU varied with different trade patterns. It can significantly inhibit processing exports, while it has no effect on ordinary exports. The results of this paper indicate that in the context of increasing uncertainty, our findings could have far-reaching policy implications for China to build a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation.