Current Risk Research Articles

Bayesian Network Analysis for Shoreline Dynamics, Coastal Water Quality, and Their Related Risks in the Venice Littoral Zone, Italy

The coastal environment is vulnerable to natural hazards and human-induced stressors. The assessment and management of coastal risks have become a challenging task, due to many environmental and socio-economic risk factors together with the complex interactions that might arise through natural and human-induced pressures. This work evaluates the combined effect of climate-related stressors on low-lying coastal areas by applying a multi-risk scenario analysis through a Bayesian Network (BN) approach for the Venice coast. Based on the available open-source and remote sensing data for detecting shoreline changes, the developed BN model was trained and validated with oceanographic variables for the 2015–2019 timeframe, allowing us to understand the dynamics of local-scale shoreline erosion and related water quality parameters. Three “what-if” scenarios were carried out to analyze the relationships between oceanographic boundary conditions, shoreline evolution, and water quality parameters. The results demonstrate that changes in sea surface height and significant wave height may significantly increase the probability of high-erosion and high-accretion states. Moreover, by altering the wave direction, the water quality variables show significant changes in the higher-risk class. The outcome of this study allowed us to identify current and future coastal risk scenarios, supporting local authorities in developing adaptation plans.

Risk factors and current state of therapy for anemia after kidney transplantation.

Post-transplant anemia is one of the most common complications in kidney transplant recipients, severely affecting patient prognosis and quality of life, and is an independent predictor of graft kidney loss and patient mortality. However, our clinical understanding and the attention given to post-transplant anemia are currently insufficient. This paper reviews the current status, risk factors, and therapeutic progress in anemia after transplantation in kidney transplant recipients. We recommend that clinical staff pay attention to anemia and its complications in kidney transplant recipients and intervene early for anemia.

Anisotropic electro‐driven phase change materials inspired by biological structure

AbstractElectro‐driven phase change materials (PCMs) can effectively realize electrothermal conversion and storage and have attracted much attention in the fields of electrothermal therapy and thermal management of electronic devices. How to effectively reduce the leakage current risk of it is a core problem in the application process. In this work, we used carbon fibers and boron nitride to mimic the microstructure of Greta oto butterfly's wing, and composite it with a form‐stable PCM‐PPEGMA to obtain a thermally conductive enhanced anisotropic electro‐driven PCM. The material exhibits high electrothermal conversion and storage efficiency (86.76%, 5 V), high thermal conductivity, excellent electrical anisotropy, and thermal stability because of the well‐designed spatial arrangement. The unique bionic structure effectively inhibits the conductive isotropy phenomenon of traditional electro‐driven PCMs and significantly reduces the risk of leakage current. On the basis of this situation, the system shows great application potential in the field of electrothermal therapy.

Plasma levels of autophagy regulator Rubicon are inversely associated with acute coronary syndrome.

The discovery of novel biomarkers that improve current cardiovascular risk prediction models of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is needed for the identification of very high-risk patients and therapeutic decision-making. Autophagy is a highly conserved catabolic mechanism for intracellular degradation of cellular components through lysosomes. The autophagy process helps maintain cardiac homeostasis and dysregulated autophagy has been described in cardiovascular conditions. Rubicon (Run domain Beclin-1-interacting and cysteine-rich domain-containing protein) is a key regulator of autophagy with a potential role in cardiac stress. The aims of the present study were to assess whether changes in circulating Rubicon levels are associated with ACS and to evaluate the added value of Rubicon to a clinical predictive risk model. The study population included ACS patients (n = 100) and control subjects (n = 99) at high to very high cardiovascular risk but without known coronary event. Plasma Rubicon levels were measured in the whole study population by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Multivariate logistic regression analyses established that Rubicon levels were inversely associated with ACS. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the addition of Rubicon improved the predictive performance of the model with an increased area under the curve from 0.868 to 0.896 (p = 0.038). Plasma levels of the autophagy regulator Rubicon are associated with ACS and provide added value to classical risk markers for ACS.

Picking a thorny rose: Optimal trading with spread‐based return predictability

AbstractSmall stocks' time‐varying spreads predict future return gap between small and large stocks. To optimally exploit such predictability, the investor captures current risk premium by purchasing at large spreads with substantially reduced turnover; uses an aim‐in‐front‐of‐the‐target approach to trade‐off between future risk premium and current transaction costs; and meets hedging demand at low costs. Strong interaction between transaction costs and return predictability leads to large losses from myopic trading. Greater variability of the spread is advantageous for investors who trade optimally but detrimental for investors who trade myopically. The spread‐based return predictability significantly increases the investment value of small stocks.

Generative Language Models and Open Notes: Exploring the Promise and Limitations.

Patients' online record access (ORA) is growing worldwide. In some countries, including the United States and Sweden, access is advanced with patients obtaining rapid access to their full records on the web including laboratory and test results, lists of prescribed medications, vaccinations, and even the very narrative reports written by clinicians (the latter, commonly referred to as "open notes"). In the United States, patient's ORA is also available in a downloadable form for use with other apps. While survey studies have shown that some patients report many benefits from ORA, there remain challenges with implementation around writing clinical documentation that patients may now read. With ORA, the functionality of the record is evolving; it is no longer only an aide memoire for doctors but also a communication tool for patients. Studies suggest that clinicians are changing how they write documentation, inviting worries about accuracy and completeness. Other concerns include work burdens; while few objective studies have examined the impact of ORA on workload, some research suggests that clinicians are spending more time writing notes and answering queries related to patients' records. Aimed at addressing some of these concerns, clinician and patient education strategies have been proposed. In this viewpoint paper, we explore these approaches and suggest another longer-term strategy: the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) to support clinicians in documenting narrative summaries that patients will find easier to understand. Applied to narrative clinical documentation, we suggest that such approaches may significantly help preserve the accuracy of notes, strengthen writing clarity and signals of empathy and patient-centered care, and serve as a buffer against documentation work burdens. However, we also consider the current risks associated with existing generative AI. We emphasize that for this innovation to play a key role in ORA, the cocreation of clinical notes will be imperative. We also caution that clinicians will need to be supported in how to work alongside generative AI to optimize its considerable potential.

Development and validation of a promising 5-gene prognostic model for pediatric acute myeloid leukemia

Risk classification in pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (P-AML) is crucial for personalizing treatments. Thus, we aimed to establish a risk-stratification tool for P-AML patients and eventually guide individual treatment. A total of 256 P-AML patients with accredited mRNA-seq data from the TARGET database were divided into training and internal validation datasets. A gene-expression-based prognostic score was constructed for overall survival (OS), by using univariate Cox analysis, LASSO regression analysis, Kaplan–Meier (K-M) survival, and multivariate Cox analysis. A P-AML-5G prognostic score bioinformatically derived from expression levels of 5 genes (ZNF775, RNFT1, CRNDE, COL23A1, and TTC38), clustered P-AML patients in training dataset into high-risk group (above optimal cut-off) with shorter OS, and low-risk group (below optimal cut-off) with longer OS (p < 0.0001). Meanwhile, similar results were obtained in internal validation dataset (p = 0.005), combination dataset (p < 0.001), two treatment sub-groups (p < 0.05), intermediate-risk group defined with the Children's Oncology Group (COG) (p < 0.05) and an external Japanese P-AML dataset (p = 0.005). The model was further validated in the COG study AAML1031(p = 0.001), and based on transcriptomic analysis of 943 pediatric patients and 70 normal bone marrow samples from this dataset, two genes in the model demonstrated significant differential expression between the groups [all log2(foldchange) > 3, p < 0.001]. Independent of other prognostic factors, the P-AML-5G groups presented the highest concordance-index values in training dataset, chemo-therapy only treatment subgroups of the training and internal validation datasets, and whole genome-sequencing subgroup of the combined dataset, outperforming two Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk stratification systems, 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) risk classification tool and two leukemic stem cell expression-based models. The 5-gene prognostic model generated by a single assay can further refine the current COG risk stratification system that relies on numerous tests and may have the potential for the risk judgment and identification of the high-risk pediatric AML patients receiving chemo-therapy only treatment.

Factors associated with suicide risk in young women with premenstrual dysphoric disorder: A population-based study.

Women with premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) are more likely to report suicide ideation and behavior when compared to women without PMDD. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the risk factors for suicide risk in women with PMDD. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the factors associated with suicide risk in young women with PMDD. This is a cross-sectional study including 128 young women with PMDD who were recruited from the community. PMDD and suicide risk were assessed by trained psychologists using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI-PLUS). Suicide risk evaluation includes six questions that assess suicidal intention, planning and previous attempts. Subjects who answer yes to any of the six questions are classified as having current suicide risk. The prevalence of current suicide risk in women with PMDD was 28.1%. The factors associated with suicide risk in this population were: presenting current panic disorder (OR: 18.71 [95% CI: 1.02 - 343.27], p=0.048), a non-white skin color (OR: 4.18 [CI 95%: 1.28 - 13.61], p=0.018), greater severity of depressive symptoms (OR: 1.22 [95% CI: 1.12 - 1.32], < 0.001), and history of childhood trauma (OR: 1.04 [95% CI: 1.01 - 1.08], 0.010). Our findings indicate that there are key sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with suicide risk in young women with PMDD, enabling clinicians to identify at-risk individuals who could benefit from further screening and interventions.

The Role of Corruption on Liberia’s Peace and Stability

This essay addresses the role of corruption in Liberia’s peace, security, and stability. This essay argues that corruption led to the Liberian Civil War and remains the present and future security risk to Liberia. It further argues that the election of the newly elected Liberian Government under H.E Joseph Nyuma Boakia, and Vice President Jeremiah Koung was timely and could help to remove this binding constraint to Liberia’s growth and development. Former President Charles Taylor left power on 11 August 2003 thereby ending the fourteen-year civil conflict in the country; however, Mr. Taylor was prosecuted and convicted for war crimes committed only in Sierra Leone rather than those in Liberia leaving the peace and stability of Liberia fragile. It is hoped that this new government will bring an end to impunity in Liberia by establishing a War and Economic Crimes Court to prosecute such crimes in the Republic of Liberia. The essay reviews the history of corruption in Liberia, the causes, and effects of a weak anti-corruption system, it discusses the challenges militating against the speedy and successful prosecution of corruption cases in Liberia. This research is important because the researcher argues that corruption was the cause of the Liberian Civil Crises. Hence, the Liberian Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC) was created to curb the endemic corruption in both the Liberian public and private sectors (LACC Act 2008). However, this anti-graft agency has not done much to curb the menace. Because of this, the international community, including the Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS), United Nations, and other bodies intervened in the Liberia Civil Crisis to help the country transition towards peace and stability. Nevertheless, corruption in Liberia persists and hampers sustainable socio-political progress and retards economic growth and development (UNCAC 2003; LACC Act 2008). Here fore, it constitutes the outstanding main current and future security risk to Liberia. Simply put, corruption is Liberia’s binding constraint to national development, which if not adequately addressed could remain a wicked problem for the state and its future generations.

The Current Pathogenicity and Potential Risk Evaluation of Marburg Virus to Cause Mysterious "Disease X"-An Update on Recent Evidences.

The World Health Organization (WHO) defined Disease X as an upcoming disease with the potential to cause a pandemic. Pathogen X is responsible for Disease X. Marburg virus disease (MVD) is one of the diseases from the priority disease list published by WHO. Marburg virus is a filamentous, negative-sense RNA virus that belongs to the same filovirus family as the lethal Ebola virus. Since the first discovery of this virus in 1967, 17 outbreaks occurred sporadically till 2023. Rousettus aegyptiacus acts as the natural reservoir of the virus. With an average incubation period of 5 to 10 days, its first target is the mononuclear phagocytic system cells. It is highly contagious and can be easily transmitted from animal to human and human to human via direct contact with blood or body fluid, feces, and semen of the infected host. Although Marburg disease has a high case fatality rate of close to 90%, unfortunately, there is no approved vaccines or treatments are available. The most recent outbreak of Marburg virus in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania in 2023 caused an alert for global health. However, based on the last global pandemic of COVID-19 and the sudden re-emerging of monkeypox around the world, we can assume that the Marburg virus has the potential to cause a global pandemic. Our modern world depends on globalization, which helps the virus transmission among countries. The Marburg virus can easily be transmitted to humans by fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family. This virus causes severe hemorrhagic disease, and there are no specific vaccines and treatments available to combat it. Therefore, community engagement and early supportive care for patients are keys to successfully controlling MVD.

Flood risk assessment of Kemang Area as a central business in South Jakarta

This paper presents a flood risk assessment of Kemang area which around 80 Ha as central business at South Jakarta, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia. It is crucial to asses this area as it well-known as central business that has high damaged due to affected by flooding. The objective of this study to know the current level flood risk in the area and then how structural interventions through improving drainage pumps capacity with 2 m3/s contribute to the its level. The rational method, HEC-RAS 2D, and GIS have applied for methods flood risk analysis in two years return period of rainfall (138 mm/day). Flood risks calculated based on hazard index, vulnerability index and capacity index in scale of 20 RT (neighbourhood associations). As the result, flood risk map show that the Kemang area has 65 % highly risk of flooding, 10 % in moderate level and the rest is low level risk of flooding. The current planning of structural intervention not significant to reduce risk level. Therefore, it needs more actions to reduce the flood risk level through both structural and non-structural measures such as normalization of drainage system, policy, social and private engagement.

ВПЛИВ КРИЗ НА ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ СВІТОВОГО РИНКУ АВІАЦІЙНИХ ПЕРЕВЕЗЕНЬ

Taking into account the cyclical nature of the world economy development, the identification and analysis of crisis phenomena that arise in the world economic system acquires special importance. At the same time, taking into account that air transport is one of the drivers of social and economic growth, it is necessary to determine the interrelationships and factors of the impact of crises on various aspects of the world air transportation market functioning. The analysis of modern risks and threats is a step towards understanding and developing strategies aimed at maintaining a high level of safety and stability of the air transport sector in conditions of constant change. The purpose of the article is to study the impact of global economic crises on the air transport sector, to identify and substantiate modern risks and threats to the functioning of the global air transport market. The interdependence of the development of the world economy and the air transport system is explored in the article; it was established that the biggest crisis shocks in world aviation are cyclical in nature. The largest economic crises and their consequences for the air transport sector are analyzed. Current key risks and threats to the global air transport market are substantiated: the return of the coronavirus or its mutation, geopolitical instability, reformatting of supply chains, a slowdown in demand for air travel as a result of the global recession, a change in society's eco-consciousness, and others. Scientific theories of economic cycles and crises form the methodological basis of the research; both general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge were used – historical-logical, descriptive-analytical, analysis and synthesis, methods of quantitative and qualitative comparisons. The informational basis of the article is monographic studies and periodical publications of domestic and foreign economists, analytical reports of international organizations, international consulting companies and analytical centers. Research results can be used for scientific justification and further creation of proper conditions for effective management of the global air transport system, while developing new strategies that will allow the aviation sector to remain stable and competitive in conditions of uncertainty and growing threats.

Decoding 22q11.2: prenatal profiling and first-trimester risk assessment in Danish nationwide cohort.

To examine the distribution of nuchal translucency thickness (NT), free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in pregnancies with a fetal 22q11.2 aberration. Furthermore, the performance of combined first-trimester screening (cFTS) and a new risk algorithm targeting 22q11.2 deletions in detecting affected pregnancies was evaluated. Finally, prenatal malformations and pregnancy outcome were assessed. This was a nationwide registry-based cohort study of all pregnancies that underwent prenatal screening with a due date between January 2008 and December 2018 in Denmark. All cases with a fetal 22q11.2 deletion or duplication (hg19 chr22:18.9mio-25.0mio) diagnosed pre- or postnatally or following pregnancy loss or termination of pregnancy were retrieved from the Danish Cytogenetic Central Register and linked with pregnancy data from the Danish Fetal Medicine Database. Fetal and maternal characteristics, including cFTS results and pregnancy outcome, of pregnancies with any 22q11.2 deletion or duplication (LCR22-A to -H) and pregnancies with a classic deletion or duplication (LCR22-A to -D) diagnosed by chromosomal microarray were compared with those of a chromosomally normal reference group. A risk algorithm was developed for assessing patient-specific risks for classic 22q11.2 deletions based on NT, PAPP-A and β-hCG. Detection rates and false-positive rates at different risk cut-offs were calculated. We included data on 143 pregnancies with a fetal 22q11.2 aberration, of which 97 were deletions (54 classic) and 46 were duplications (32 classic). NT was significantly increased in fetuses with a classic deletion (mean, 1.89 mm), those with any deletion (mean, 1.78 mm) and those with any duplication (mean, 1.86 mm) compared to the reference group (mean, 1.65 mm). β-hCG multiples of the median (MoM) was decreased in all 22q11.2 subgroups compared with the reference group (mean, 1.02) and reached significance in pregnancies with a classic deletion and those with any deletion (mean, 0.77 and 0.71, respectively). PAPP-A MoM was significantly decreased in pregnancies with a classic duplication and those with any duplication (mean, 0.57 and 0.63, respectively), and was significantly increased in pregnancies with a classic deletion and those with any deletion (mean, 1.34 and 1.16, respectively), compared to reference pregnancies (mean, 1.01). The screen-positive rate by cFTS was significantly increased in pregnancies with a classic deletion (13.7%), any deletion (12.5%), a classic duplication (46.9%) or any duplication (37.8%) compared to the reference group (4.5%). A risk algorithm targeting classic 22q11.2 deletions more than doubled the prenatal detection rate of classic 22q11.2 deletions, but with a substantial increase in the false-positive rate. Structural malformations were detected in 41%, 35%, 17% and 25% of the pregnancies with a classic deletion, any deletion, classic duplication or any duplication, respectively. Pregnancy loss occurred in 40% of pregnancies with a classic deletion and 5% of those with a classic duplication diagnosed prenatally or following pregnancy loss. The distribution of cFTS markers in pregnancies with a classic 22q11.2 duplication resembles that of the common trisomies, with decreased levels of PAPP-A. However, classic 22q11.2 deletions are associated with increased levels of PAPP-A, which likely limits early prenatal detection using the current cFTS risk algorithm. The scope for improving early detection of classic 22q11.2 deletions using targeted risk algorithms based on NT, PAPP-A and β-hCG is limited. This demonstrates the capability, but also the limitations, of cFTS markers in detecting atypical chromosomal anomalies, which is important knowledge when designing new prenatal screening programs. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Dark future for a black salamander: effects of climate change and conservation implications for an endemic alpine amphibian

Climate change is threatening several montane species across the world, including a large number of endemics, needing the development of forward-looking conservation strategies to foster their future survival. In this context, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) represent a useful method to forecast changes in species’ habitat suitability under different scenarios of global warming, often advising conservation frameworks with credible, defensible and repeatable information. In this paper, we estimate the environmental and bioclimatic suitability for an endemic mountain amphibian (Salamandra lanzai) in the western European Alps through an SDM approach, considering both current and future scenarios, to address short- and long-term management and conservation actions, and to update the current IUCN extinction risk assessment. The ensemble model forecasts predict a dramatic decline of the climatically suitable area for the Lanza’s alpine salamander in the next 20–40 years, even considering an optimistic CO2 emissions scenario, leading to a theoretical extinction of this species in 2100 in case the worst global warming prediction will be actualised. This underlines the urgent need for up-to-date conservation and management strategies to ensure the successful mitigation of climate change effects on S. lanzai, especially by adapting and improving the network of protected areas, immediately removing additional threats and identifying possible management actions able to increase fine-scale habitat suitability and connectivity among populations. In addition, a significant range contraction in the future has to be considered when assessing the extinction risk for this species, possibly exacerbating the effect of other threatening factors, such as the spread of lethal pathogens. Keywords: Salamandra lanzai, ensemble models, environmental suitability, bioclimatic suitability, future projections

COL6A1 expression as a potential prognostic biomarker for risk stratification of T1 high grade bladder cancer: Unveiling the aggressive nature of a distinct non-muscle invasive subtype.

T1 high grade (T1HG) bladder cancer (BC) is a type of non-muscle invasive BC (NMIBC) that is recognized as an aggressive subtype with a heightened propensity for progression. Current risk stratification methods for NMIBC rely on clinicopathological indicators; however, these approaches do not adequately capture the aggressive nature of T1HG BC. Thus, new, more accurate biomarkers for T1HG risk stratification are needed. Here, we enrolled three different patient cohorts and investigated expression of collagen type VI alpha 1 (COL6A1), a key component of the extracellular matrix, at different stages and grades of BC, with a specific focus on T1HG BC. Samples from 298 BC patients were subjected to RNA sequencing and real-time polymerase chain reaction. We found that T1HG BC and muscle invasive BC (MIBC) exhibited comparable expression of COL6A1, which was significantly higher than that by other NMIBC subtypes. In particular, T1HG patients who later progressed to MIBC had considerably higher expression of COL6A1 than Ta, T1 low grade patients, and patients that did not progress, highlighting the aggressive nature and higher risk of progression associated with T1HG BC. Moreover, Cox and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses revealed a significant association between elevated expression of COL6A1 and poor progression-free survival of T1HG BC patients (multivariate Cox hazard ratio, 16.812; 95% confidence interval, 3.283-86.095; p=0.001 and p=0.0002 [log-rank test]). These findings suggest that COL6A1 may be a promising biomarker for risk stratification of T1HG BC, offering valuable insight into disease prognosis and guidance of personalized treatment decisions.

Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change

AbstractClimate changes influence lake hydrodynamics and radiation levels and thus may affect the fate and transport of waterborne pathogens in lakes. This study examines the impact of climate change on the fate, transport, and associated risks of four waterborne viruses in Lake Geneva. We used a coupled water quality‐microbial risk assessment model to estimate virus concentrations and associated risks to recreational water users for each month in 2019 and 2060. Long‐term hydrodynamic simulations suggested that although the annual hydrodynamic transport pattern of Lake Geneva will remain relatively stable, a 1.9°C increase of lake surface water temperature can be expected, while a slight decrease in lake current velocity may occur. The subsequent effect on the fate and transport of the four enteric viruses was found to vary by time of year. During warmer periods, the increase of virus inactivation due to higher water temperature and stronger solar radiation at the earth's surface will compensate for the additional virus discharge brought about by population growth over the time period considered, whereas during winter the virus concentration near the lake shore and the associated infection probabilities risks are likely to increase due to population growth. Additionally, the current estimation of virus inactivation rate shows significant variability, which has a more substantial effect on enteric virus concentrations in the lake compared with changing climate parameters. Overall, the study suggests that future risks posed by enteric viruses with recreational water users near popular beaches around Lake Geneva will likely remain similar to current risks and accurate estimation of the environmental inactivation of viruses is crucial for predicting the fate of enteric viruses in the aquatic system.

Development and Validation of a Protein Risk Score for Mortality in Heart Failure : A Community Cohort Study.

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality. Current risk stratification approaches lack precision. High-throughput proteomics could improve risk prediction. Its use in clinical practice to guide the management of patients with HF depends on validation and evidence of clinical benefit. To develop and validate a protein risk score for mortality in patients with HF. Community-based cohort. Southeast Minnesota. Patients with HF enrolled between 2003 and 2012 and followed through 2021. A total of 7289 plasma proteins in 1351 patients with HF were measured using the SomaScan Assay (SomaLogic). A protein risk score was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and temporal validation in patients enrolled between 2003 and 2007 (development cohort) and 2008 and 2012 (validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between the protein risk score and mortality. The performance of the protein risk score to predict 5-year mortality risk was assessed using calibration plots, decision curves, and relative utility analyses and compared with a clinical model, including the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure mortality risk score and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. The development (n = 855; median age, 78 years; 50% women; 29% with ejection fraction <40%) and validation cohorts (n = 496; median age, 76 years; 45% women; 33% with ejection fraction <40%) were mostly similar. In the development cohort, 38 unique proteins were selected for the protein risk score. Independent of ejection fraction, the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration, reclassified mortality risk particularly at the extremes of the risk distribution, and showed greater clinical utility compared with the clinical model. Participants were predominantly of European ancestry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to different patient populations. Validation of the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration and evidence of predicted benefits to stratify the risk for death in HF superior to that of clinical methods. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the score's performance in diverse populations and determine risk thresholds for interventions. Division of Intramural Research at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

창원시 지방소멸에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

This study aims to identify the factors that reduce the risk of rural depopulation in Changwon through the factors that affect the rural depopulation risk index in Changwon. The data used for the analysis of the study is a cross-sectional data for the distinguished areas of Changwon City in terms of geography, and a time series of 128 monthly data from January 2012 to August 2022. To conduct the empirical analysis, a balanced panel data combining cross-sectional and time series data was used to examine the factors affecting rural depopulation and population decline in Changwon City. The current rural depopulation risk index of Changwon City allowed us to identify the rural depopulation status of different districts of Changwon City, and it is expected to be used to provide direction for the establishment of real estate policies and future plans for each district. In the case of Changwon City, it was possible to identify that the population was rapidly declining as of 2016, and the population decline was caused by the decline of manufacturing, heavy industry, and shipbuilding, which are the core industries of Changwon City. Therefore, it is necessary for local governments to establish policies to attract the population of young people, the productive population, through deregulation and policy support centered on the Changwon National Industrial Complex, which is currently stagnating. It is judged that appropriate real estate development is necessary to attract consumers through the increase of apartment sales prices, and that supportive policies and deregulation policies for development can have a positive impact on the increase of the local extinction risk index in Changwon City. Based on these results, it is necessary for Changwon City to prepare policies in advance to ease the burden of renters due to population influx as a way to prevent population outflow to other areas, and to cope with sustainable population influx through housing stability support policies and relaxation of development regulations for housing supply.

Evaluation of 23rd November 2022 Düzce Earthquake with Current European Seismic Hazard and Risk Model

Sismik aktivitesi yüksek olan Kuzey Anadolu Fayı Zonu (KAFZ) üzerinde yer alan Düzce ili, deprem tehlikesi yüksek bir bölge durumundadır. Bu bölgede yaşanan 17 Ağustos 1999 MW 7.6 Kocaeli depremi sonrasında Bolu-Düzce arasındaki Düzce fayı üzerindeki gerilme enerjisi 12 Kasım 1999 tarihinde açığa çıkarak MW 7.2 Düzce depremini meydana getirmiştir. 23 yıl sonra, bu bölgede KAFZ–Karadere Segmenti’nde, 23 Kasım 2022 günü Mw=5.9 büyüklüğünde ve merkez üssü Düzce-Gölyaka olan bir deprem meydana gelmiştir. 6.81 kilometre derinlikte kaydedilen bu deprem başta İstanbul ve Ankara olmak üzere Bolu, Sakarya, Kocaeli, Kütahya, Bilecik, Bursa ve İzmir'e kadar geniş bir alanda hissedilmiştir. Gölyaka ve Cumayeri ilçelerinde ve faya yakın yerlerdeki bazı köylerde hafif, orta ve yer yer ağır yapısal hasar meydana gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Düzce ilinin depremselliği, Güncel Avrupa Sismik Tehlike Modeli (ESHM20) kullanılarak olasılıksal sismik tehlike analizleriyle değerlendirilmiştir. 23 Kasım 2022 Mw 5.9 Gölyaka’da gerçekleşen deprem, AFAD istasyonlarına ait kayıtlar, güncel deprem tehlike modeli ve tasarım spektrumlarıyla birlikte değerlendirilmiştir. Olasılıksal sismik tehlike analizine bağlı sismik risk analizinde, Güncel Avrupa Sismik Risk Modelinde (ESRM20) Düzce ili için tanımlanan eski yönetmelik ve yeni yönetmelik uyumlu az ve orta katlı betonarme yapı sınıfları dikkate alınmıştır. Sismik tehlike analizine bağlı olarak Düzce ili için sismik risk değerlendirmesi kayıp eğrileri aracılığıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir.

Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) practices in the LNG industry: A review

This study thoroughly examines Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) practices in the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry, a sector pivotal to the global energy landscape. The paper delves into the complexities and evolving nature of HSE practices, underscoring the industry's critical role in energy transition and its impact on environmental sustainability. The aim is to synthesize current challenges, assess risk management strategies, evaluate regulatory compliance and explore the influence of technological advancements and human factors on HSE practices. Through a systematic review and meta-analysis approach, the study meticulously analyzes peer-reviewed literature, focusing on the LNG industry's HSE practices since the year 2000. This comprehensive methodological framework ensures an unbiased synthesis of existing research, providing insights into trends, gaps and future research directions. Key findings reveal significant HSE challenges, including operational risks, environmental impacts and safety concerns. The study highlights the efficacy of current risk management strategies, emphasizing the need for comprehensive methodological approaches. It also sheds light on the multifaceted nature of regulatory compliance within the industry, stressing the importance of a compliance-oriented organizational culture and technological adaptation. The study concludes with recommendations for continuous improvement in HSE practices, leveraging technological innovations, fostering a compliance-oriented culture and adopting a multifaceted approach to manage complex HSE challenges. It advocates for balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility and safety, ensuring the LNG industry's sustainable development. This paper contributes significantly to the body of knowledge on HSE practices in the LNG industry and serves as a foundation for future research and policy development in this critical energy sector.