창원시 지방소멸에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study aims to identify the factors that reduce the risk of rural depopulation in Changwon through the factors that affect the rural depopulation risk index in Changwon. The data used for the analysis of the study is a cross-sectional data for the distinguished areas of Changwon City in terms of geography, and a time series of 128 monthly data from January 2012 to August 2022. To conduct the empirical analysis, a balanced panel data combining cross-sectional and time series data was used to examine the factors affecting rural depopulation and population decline in Changwon City. The current rural depopulation risk index of Changwon City allowed us to identify the rural depopulation status of different districts of Changwon City, and it is expected to be used to provide direction for the establishment of real estate policies and future plans for each district. In the case of Changwon City, it was possible to identify that the population was rapidly declining as of 2016, and the population decline was caused by the decline of manufacturing, heavy industry, and shipbuilding, which are the core industries of Changwon City. Therefore, it is necessary for local governments to establish policies to attract the population of young people, the productive population, through deregulation and policy support centered on the Changwon National Industrial Complex, which is currently stagnating. It is judged that appropriate real estate development is necessary to attract consumers through the increase of apartment sales prices, and that supportive policies and deregulation policies for development can have a positive impact on the increase of the local extinction risk index in Changwon City. Based on these results, it is necessary for Changwon City to prepare policies in advance to ease the burden of renters due to population influx as a way to prevent population outflow to other areas, and to cope with sustainable population influx through housing stability support policies and relaxation of development regulations for housing supply.