Current Protected Area Network Research Articles

Prioritising areas for conservation within Tropical Important Plant Areas of the British Virgin Islands, Caribbean

Oceanic islands are particularly vulnerable to the global decline of biological diversity, suffering disproportionally large losses of endemic species. A primary tool for mitigating species loss is the establishment of protected area networks. The 2030 Global Biodiversity Framework target calls for the protection of 30% of Earth’s land surface by 2030. This study identifies areas within the Tropical Important Plant Areas network of the British Virgin Islands (BVI), to better inform the expansion of the current protected area network with the objective of conserving the BVI’s unique flora. We identified and applied conservation targets for five threatened habitats and 34 species of conservation concern, including four endemic to the BVI. A total of 5,248 georeferenced plant records for the 34 species collected through decades of collaborative work between the National Parks Trust of the Virgin Islands and the Royal Botanical Gardens, Kew, along with the distribution of five threatened habitats were used within the decision support system MARXAN to identify four spatial portfolios to guide the expansion of the BVI’s current protected area network. Highlighting the need to expand the current (2007–2017) Protected Areas System Plan in the BVI, we found that the current Plan only covers 15% of terrestrial land and does not meet the conservation targets for plants and habitats. The portfolios identified in our analysis efficiently expand the current Protected Areas System Plan to strategically expand coverage for all conservation features, with two main portfolios reaching all defined conservation targets for protection. Notably, to evaluate options not requiring land purchase, we extracted areas within state-owned Crown land from two main identified portfolios and found that the two Crown land-portfolios could protect 28% and 23% of the BVI, respectively, while meeting the targets for most plants of conservation concern. However, to reach 30% land protection and meet the conservation targets for all plant species, including endemics, private land would need to be considered for this inclusion within the protected area network. Our results provide science-based guidance for the selection of candidate protected area expansion sites that include threatened plants and habitats for reaching the 2030 Biodiversity Framework targets. While systematic conservation planning can provide guidance on protected area expansion, it is important to evaluate and prioritise conservation actions, based on multiple solutions and available resources. We recommend similar approaches are applied more broadly throughout the Caribbean and other archipelagos across the world.

Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas.

Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio-environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

On the rocks: Biogeography and floristic identity of rocky ecosystems in eastern South America

AbstractThe geodiversity of rocky ecosystems includes diverse plant communities with specific names, but their continental‐scale floristic identity and the knowledge on the role of macroclimate remain patchy. Here, we assessed the identity of plant communities in eastern Brazil across multiple types of rocky landscapes and evaluated the relative importance of climatic variables in constraining floristic differentiation. We provided lists of diagnostic species and an assessment of the conservation status of the identified floristic groups. We compiled a data set of 151 sites (4498 species) from rocky ecosystems, including campos rupestres, campos de altitude, granitic‐gneiss lowland inselbergs, and limestone outcrops. We used unsupervised clustering analysis followed by ANOSIM to assess floristic groups among sites. We performed a random forest variable selection to test whether the identified floristic groups occupy distinct climatic spaces. Six groups (lithobiomes) segregated floristically according to lithology and climate. Alongside campos de altitude and limestone outcrops, inselbergs were divided according to the biome in which they occur (Atlantic Forest or Caatinga), and campos rupestres were largely segregated according to their lithological matrix (ironstone or quartzitic). Plant communities of Caatinga inselbergs were more similar to limestone outcrops, while Atlantic Forest inselbergs communities resembled campos de altitude. The composition of plant communities on outcrops seems to be largely constrained by lithology, but climatic factors are also meaningful for sites with similar lithology. The current network of protected areas does not cover these unique ecosystems and their floristic heterogeneity, with Caatinga inselbergs and limestone outcrops being the least protected.

Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040–2060) and late (2061–2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.

Global conservation priorities for wetlands and setting post-2025 targets

Wetland conservation is becoming increasingly important as wetland areas decline globally. However, no comprehensive global-scale mapping of wetland conservation priorities and targets has been published. This information is needed to extend the current protected area network and improve the conservation efficiency for wetlands. Here, we propose a cost-effective assessment model for wetland conservation by integrating wetland conservation value- and human impact-related indicators to identify global wetland conservation priorities. These priorities cover 28% of the potential global wetland distribution, and of that, only 44% is currently protected by existing protected areas. To protect more wetland conservation priorities, we propose three target-setting scenarios for protected area expansion that offer additional contributions of 9.40%, 42.40%, and 55.97%, respectively. These three global targets can be downscaled to the national level and used to update national wetland biodiversity conservation strategies and action plans under a harmonized legal and regulatory regime at different scales and jurisdictions.

The Protected Areas network may be insufficient to protect bird diversity in a fragmented tropical hotspot under different climate scenarios

We identified the 30% most-important forest remnants for conservation in the Atlantic Forest domain in South America based on three bird diversity components: (1) overall species potential distribution, (2) potential distribution of threatened species, and (3) diversity of functional traits. We evaluated the extent of overlap among priority areas using the different approaches and analysed the efficiency of the current Protected Areas network at protecting biodiversity in current and potential future (2040 and 2080) climate scenarios. The overlap among the most important areas is low among the different bird diversity components in all climate scenarios, and few changes were found in priority areas between the current and future scenario. The proportion of species that reached the minimum amount of their distribution areas protected varied from zero to 4% depending on the climate scenario and the species conservation status (threatened or not). Priority areas based on the potential distribution of threatened species were less correlated to areas based on the overall species potential distribution than to functional traits in all climate scenarios, suggesting that there might be considerable differences between species composition and their functionalities. Our analyses point out the main regions where resources should be allocated to conservation of birds in a mega-biodiversity region.

Zoogeographic regionalisation of terrestrial vertebrates of Mozambique

AbstractDuring the formative years of science‐based biodiversity conservation and planning, Mozambique was undergoing a prolonged post‐colonial liberation struggle (1964–1974) and subsequent civil war (1976–1992), resulting in a profound gap in biodiversity knowledge and conservation planning relative to other countries in the region. This study represents Mozambique's first post‐war (1992 to the present) zoogeographic regionalisation at a fine scale, using 20 years of terrestrial vertebrate data comprising 54 species and 27,199 records that cover 53% of the 0.5° grid cells of the country, with 35% of cells having sufficient data for subsequent quantitative analysis. Cluster and Indicator species (IndVal) analysis were used to delimit zooregions and to identify their characteristic species, respectively, while Redundancy analysis was used to relate environmental variables to vertebrate groups. These analyses divided Mozambique into six zooregions (Niassa, Tete, Gilé, Marromeu‐Gorongosa, Limpopo‐Zinave‐Banhine and Maputo). Our study reveals that the zooregions identified are not adequately protected by the current network of protected areas. An expanded network of protected areas is needed to ensure biodiversity conservation in Mozambique.

Prioritizing conservation of terrestrial orchids: A gap analysis for Italy

Protected areas (PAs) are a strategic tool for biodiversity conservation, and conservation planning approaches are used to optimize PAs capacity to preserve specific target groups. Orchidaceae is one of the most threatened plant families, as most species are vulnerable to habitat changes because of their strong ecological specialization. Italy plays a key role in biogeography as a result of its geographical position and hosts one of the most diverse orchid floras in the Mediterranean Basin. The aim of this work is to depict the degree of protection granted to orchids by the current network of PAs across the entire Italian country, testing whether distributional and ecological features affect species' conservation representativeness, and identifying a priority list of species to be further protected. We compiled a dataset comprising 71,693 occurrence records, the spatial conservation representativeness was calculated as the percent of occurrences falling within the borders of PAs. Generalized Linear Models were run to assess differences in the spatial conservation representativeness among species according to the preferred habitat, endemicity, chorology, and protection by the Habitats Directive. We produced a list of species to be used for prioritizing conservation planning. Our findings show that emphasis is needed on adopting orchid species linked to primary or well mature habitats to select additional PAs with high conservation significance. Our findings reiterate the urgency of targeted conservation actions that can protect orchids and prevent their decline.

An integrative climate and land cover change detection unveils extensive range contraction in mountain newts

The global decline of amphibian populations, driven by anthropogenic activities, is a pressing conservation issue, with salamanders being of particular concern, as these species serve as ecological indicators vulnerable to environmental change. Mountain newts of the Neurergus genus, which are endemic to the Zagros Mountain chain from southeastern Turkey to northern Iraq and southwestern Iran, face a multitude of threats. Among these threats, climate change and land use alterations have been identified as major contributors to the decline of these species. Given the varying spatiotemporal scales at which these factors operate, in this study we aimed to assess the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes (LULCC) on the distribution of the Neurergus genus. We employed MaxEnt model to predict their habitat suitability under current climatic conditions. We projected the predicted model to the future, i.e., 2050, under two climate change scenarios. We then proceeded to map the LULC patterns of the identified suitable habitats for each species using Landsat satellite images, and conducted a hindcast of LULCC within these habitats for three time-slices 1988, 2005, and 2020. Finally, we evaluated the efficiency of current network of protected areas (PAs) and key biodiversity areas (KBAs) in Iran, Iraq, and Turkey to cover suitable habitats of the species. Our results revealed that climate changes would negatively influence all Neurergus species, with southern species in Iran and Iraq, i.e., N. derjugini, N. kaiseri, and N. crocatus exhibiting the greatest range loss. Conversely, LULC change detection indicated that northern species in Turkey, i.e., N. strauchii and N. barani, are more exposed to cropland developments and have experienced greatest habitat changes over the past 30 years. Ultimately, our findings underscore the insufficiency of extant conservation areas in protecting Neurergus habitats and urge the need for comprehensive conservation measures. We recommend promoting less strictly conserved areas, e.g., KBAs, implementing trans-boundary conservation plans, and designating new reserves to ensure long-term preservation of amphibians in the regions.

Utilizing a top predator to prioritize site protection for biodiversity conservation

Ongoing global change makes it ever more urgent to find creative solutions for biodiversity preservation, but prioritizing sites for protection can be challenging. One shortcut lies in mapping the habitat requirements of well-established biodiversity indicators, such as top predators, to identify high-biodiversity sites. Here, we planned site protection for biodiversity conservation by developing a multi-scale species distribution model (SDM) for the raptorial Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; goshawk) breeding in an extensive megacity region of Japan. Specifically, we: (1) examined the determinants of top predator occurrence and thus of high-biodiversity value in this megacity setting, (2) identified the biodiversity hotspots, (3) validated whether they actually held higher biodiversity through an independent dataset, and (4) evaluated their current protection by environmental laws. The SDM revealed that goshawks preferred secluded sites far from roads, with abundant forest within a 100 m radius and extensive forest ecotones suitable for hunting within a 900 m radius. This multi-scale landscape configuration was independently confirmed to hold higher biodiversity, yet covered only 3.2% of the study area, with only 44.0% of these sites legally protected. Thus, a rapid biodiversity assessment mediated by a top predator quickly highlighted: (1) the poor development of biodiversity-friendly urban planning in this megacity complex, an aspect overlooked for decades of rapid urban sprawl, and (2) the extreme urgency of extending legal protection to the sites missed by the current protected area network. Exigent biodiversity indicators, such as top predators, could be employed in the early or late stages of anthropogenic impacts in order to proactively incorporate biodiversity protection into planning or flag key biodiversity relics. Our results confirm and validate the applied reliability of top predatory species as biodiversity conservation tools.

Mixed effects of a national protected area network on terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

Protected areas are considered fundamental to counter biodiversity loss. However, evidence for their effectiveness in averting local extinctions remains scarce and taxonomically biased. We employ a robust counterfactual multi-taxon approach to compare occupancy patterns of 638 species, including birds (150), mammals (23), plants (39) and phytoplankton (426) between protected and unprotected sites across four decades in Finland. We find mixed impacts of protected areas, with only a small proportion of species explicitly benefiting from protection—mainly through slower rates of decline inside protected areas. The benefits of protection are enhanced for larger protected areas and are traceable to when the sites were protected, but are mostly unrelated to species conservation status or traits (size, climatic niche and threat status). Our results suggest that the current protected area network can partly contribute to slow down declines in occupancy rates, but alone will not suffice to halt the biodiversity crisis. Efforts aimed at improving coverage, connectivity and management will be key to enhance the effectiveness of protected areas towards bending the curve of biodiversity loss.

Where do we manage? Uncovering the hidden impact of human presence on mammal conservation in northern Myanmar

Species spatiotemporal responses to human presence and prioritizing conservation areas are essential for effective management and conservation planning. To address this information, we conducted a long-term large mammal survey in both protected areas (PAs) and outside of PAs (non-PA) in Northern Mountain Forest Complex (NMFC), Myanmar by using 174 camera traps from 2015 to 2019. We selected 14 common species for the single species occupancy model and activity pattern analysis to evaluate their spatiotemporal responses to different anthropogenic and environmental variables. Results showed that human presence did not have a significant impact on mammal occupancy, whereas at the community level, it had a significant influence on mammal abundance. Some variables, including distance to settlements, proximity to water sources and forest cover, shaped the habitat occupancy of mammals in NMFC. Regarding the temporal axis, only three out of 14 species had higher temporal activity overlap with humans, while the remaining species showed lower to medium overlap in both PAs and non-PA, confirming that most mammals avoided human presence through temporal rather than spatial scale. Moreover, our priority analysis revealed that non-PA supported a significant proportion of medium- to high-priority areas, particularly in the south-eastern part of NMFC. We concluded that preserving both PAs and non-PA are crucial and human activities have an implicit influence on large mammal conservation in NMFC. The government should prioritize the south-eastern region of outside of the current PAs network and adopt community-based conservation strategies to ensure the efficacy of PA networks and biodiversity conservation in NMFC.

The effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on the relative abundance and conservation of Ludwig’s Bustard Neotis ludwigii in South Africa

Ludwig’s Bustard Neotis ludwigii is near-endemic to the semi-arid shrublands of southwestern southern Africa and is listed as Endangered. The primary threat to this species is collisions with overhead powerlines; however, loss and fragmentation of its habitat may contribute to its population decline. The 1990 and 2020 land-use land-cover (LULC) maps prepared for South Africa were used to determine the LULC categories that best describe suitable habitat for Ludwig’s Bustard using beta regressions and data on exact localities, as recorded in the real-time BirdLasser logging app. Optimized Hot Spot Analysis was used to determine the priority areas for conserving Ludwig’s Bustard and its habitat. Beta regression models were compiled using the reporting rate for this bird and the total surface area of suitable habitat, and three other landscape metrics, calculated using the per pentad LULC categories considered suitable habitat for the bird. These analyses revealed that, between the first and second Southern African Bird Atlas Projects, the distribution range of Ludwig’s Bustard increased by 153 quarter-degree grid cells, whereas the reporting rate for the species declined by 5.6%, along with a small net decline in its quarterdegree-grid-cell-based area of occupancy, its pentad-based area of occupancy and habitat. The habitat of Ludwig’s Bustard is dominated by shrubland with limited grassland, in primarily the Nama Karoo and Succulent Karoo biomes, and the Grassy Karoo Biome in the eastern part of its distribution. In the relative abundance hot spot of Ludwig’s Bustard, there does not currently appear to be any significant loss or fragmentation (distance between patches) of its habitat. A landscape-based approach to conserving Ludwig’s Bustard can be achieved by expanding the current network of protected areas and conserving critical biodiversity areas and ecosystem support areas, especially in the bird’s relative abundance hot spots in the Nama Karoo and Succulent Karoo biomes.

National high-resolution conservation prioritisation of boreal forests

The continuous decline of forest biodiversity highlights the importance of the development of cost-effective and ecologically sustainable land-use planning approaches. Spatial conservation prioritisation (SCP) can be regarded as a useful tool for this challenge. We produced high-resolution, national scale SCP analyses to identify unprotected forest areas that host valuable forest biodiversity. We used stand-based modelled dead wood potential (DWP) data as a primary surrogate for conservation value. In addition, data on forestry operations that have negative impacts on biodiversity, connectivity between forest areas, the observations of red-listed forest species, connectivity to forest habitats of special importance for biodiversity, and connectivity to permanent protected areas were included in the analyses. Analyses addressed the estimation of present value and that of future potential following increases in connectivity. The results show that there are high conservation priority forest areas all over Finland although their distribution is highly fragmented. Depending on the version of the analyses, the best 10% of the landscape contains from 49% to 88% of the conservation values, a significant portion of which lie outside the current protected area network. Consequently, as biodiversity continues to decline in Finland and as most of the Finnish forest area is under commercial management, the current protected area network cannot be expected to halt the ongoing decline of forest biodiversity. Therefore, these analyses provide much-needed information for decision-making. They are a pragmatic tool for the planning of forest conservation networks and commercial management of forests at regional and national scales.

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

AbstractAimClimate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.LocationChina.MethodsHere, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.ResultsOur results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.Main ConclusionsOur findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.

Threat patterns for endemic plants of Argentina reveal disparity of vulnerability and protection among spatially associated species groups

Given the accelerated rate of environmental degradation and climate change, there is an urgent need to protect biodiversity, especially endemic species with restricted ranges. However, which areas should be prioritized for protection remains a critical issue. A common approach to prioritizing conservation is to rank areas using species-level metrics. Nevertheless, biodiversity and threat patterns can become complex when the amounts of data increase. Here, we analyzed the distribution of 1570 Argentinean endemic plants using clustering of spatially associated species to disentangle distribution and threat patterns. We explored vulnerability levels in each cluster using mean values of species-level metrics of vulnerability, relating values obtained to the regions and environments they occupy. For each cluster we also identified its hotspots and evaluated the effectiveness of the current protected area network for their conservation. Results yielded nine main clusters, mostly differentiated by their geographic distribution and by the ecoregions they occupy. Metrics revealed disparity in vulnerability levels among clusters, with the highest values recorded for clusters related to the Central Puna in northwestern Argentina, to the Espinal, Humid Pampas, and Low Monte in the east of the country, and to the Patagonian steppe in the south. Likewise, coverage by protected areas was low for most hotspots, with the lowest values recorded for the Patagonian cluster. In particular, for hotspot of this cluster, located along the Patagonian steppe in southern Chubut and northeastern Santa Cruz provinces, analyses showed that it has both high levels of vulnerability and low levels of protection, giving it the highest conservation priority of the entire pool analyzed. Our findings identify gaps in the current protected area network and highlight key areas in need of conservation policies and strategies, both in situ and ex situ, to protect the endemic plants of Argentina.

Conservation challenges to the useful neotropical palm Babaçu (Attalea pindobassu Bondar) in the face of climate change

Babaçu (Attalea pindobassu Bondar) is a native palm of Brazil's Caatinga Domain. The species has significant socioeconomic value to local communities in the Chapada Diamantina, Northeast Brazil, who employ it for cosmetic, food, and handicraft purposes. We investigated the suitability of habitats of babaçu using Ecological Niche Modeling under current and future climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic), to understand the effects of land use and climate change on the potential distribution of A. pindobassu, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) in long-term conservation of the species. The current distribution model predicted climate suitability of 68,754 km², consisting of 8.04% of the Caatinga area. Our results demonstrate a recent suppression of vegetation cover in the areas of climatic suitability. According to the models designed for SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the suitability areas are being reduced over the years when compared to the current model: (i) 2040 reduction of 23.94%; (ii) 2060 reduction of 50.7%; (iii) 2080 reduction of 64.73%; (iv) 2100 reduction of 75.21%. For SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the generated models showed a more accentuated reduction in all evaluated periods: (i) 2040 reduction of 37.27%; (ii) 2060 reduction of 60.46%; (iii) 2080 and 2100 reduction of 100%, indicating probable extinction of the species. A low percentage of climate suitability areas was observed within the PAs, in the current scenario and in the future scenarios. The creation of germplasm banks for ex situ conservation, creation and expansion of PAs, and monitoring of natural populations is crucial to ensure the sustainability of this palm's resources for local communities into the future.

Breaking out from a restricted range: Alternative habitat models to assess population perspectives

Habitat conservation for restricted-range species should also consider adjacent areas, but the analytical approaches for such assessments (particularly for a future perspective) are constrained by currently observed habitat relationships. We used two conceptually different habitat modelling approaches for analysing habitat distribution for the isolated Estonian population of a species of European conservation concern, the Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans (Linnaeus, 1758)). We expected that the correlative (statistical) approaches based on current location data will increasingly deviate along with the distance from the current range, compared with a mechanistic approach based on limiting factors for the species. For conservation planning, we also investigated how the current protected area network covers quality habitats around the current range. We constructed three alternative correlative models (MaxEnt; Random forest; Generalized Boosted Regression) utilizing remote-sensing (Sentinel-2; LiDAR) and forest inventory data for 1299 occurrences in the currently occupied ca. 1400 km2 range. A mechanistic model was constructed as a decision tree that distinguished 11 quality classes of forest land based on the ecological prioritization of limiting factors: site type; forest cover; abundance of key tree species; stand age; patch size; and layer structure. Supporting our expectation, an overall good accordance of habitat predictions of all the correlative models and the mechanistic model (at 30 × 30 m pixel size) declined with the distance from the current range. The MaxEnt model most closely followed the full range of habitat quality classes of the mechanistic model, while the other correlative models emphasized the highest habitat-quality class. Within the current range, both MaxEnt and the mechanistic model similarly revealed habitat quality differences between occupied and unoccupied species protection areas. Delineation of habitat aggregations all over the country based on the mechanistic model revealed habitat loss both within and adjacent to the current range, which sets limits to local population recovery. For analysing wider options, we recommend complementing statistical spatial modelling of current conditions with ecologically sound mechanistic approaches. Based on our specific case, we outline how such model predictions can be assessed for management planning beyond current range.

Climate Change May Pose Additional Threats to the Endangered Endemic Species Encalypta buxbaumioidea in China

Rare and endangered plant species (REPs) are important in biodiversity conservation, and some REPs with narrow habitats are facing serious challenges from climate change. Encalypta buxbaumioidea T. Cao, C, Gao & X, L. Bai is an endangered bryophyte species that is endemic to China. To explore the consequences of climate change on the geographic distribution of this endangered species, we used maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of this species in China under current and three future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) of two time periods (2050 and 2070) in China and assessed its conservation gaps. Twelve species occurrence sites and nine environmental variables were used in the modeling process. The results show that E. buxbaumioidea distribution is affected mainly by the annual mean temperature, isothermality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and NDVI. According to species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual mean temperature from −3 to 6 °C, precipitation of the coldest quarter from 14 to 77 mm, isothermality of more than 70%, and NDVI in the second quarter from 0.15 to 0.68. Currently, the most suitable habitat for this species is mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau, which is about 1.97 × 105 km2. The range would sharply reduce to 0.13–0.56% under future climate change. Nature reserves overlap with only 7.32% of the current distribution and would cover a much less portion of the area occupied by the species in the future scenarios, which means the current protected areas network is insufficient. Our results show that endangered bryophyte species are susceptible to environmental stress, especially climate change; therefore, the habitats of bryophytes should be taken into account when it comes to setting up protected areas.

Anticipating the effects of climate warming and natural habitat conversion on waterbird communities to address protection gaps

Thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to climate warming is crucial but hampered by natural habitat conversion, increasing their climatic debt. As it is, in contrast, facilitated in protected areas, assessing the adequacy of the current protected areas network with respect to future climate and land-use changes and identifying priority sites to protect is of major importance. In this study, we assess the thermal adjustment limitations that non-breeding waterbird communities might experience by the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean region to highlight priorities for wetland protection. Priorities were set by combining the exposure of waterbird communities to natural habitat conversion and climate warming with their thermal specialization. The latter was calculated using winter abundance data of 151 species from 2932 sites of the International Waterbird Census in 21 Mediterranean countries. Exposure was assessed using future projections of temperature and land-use under four CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). We found that strictly protected areas are located in wetlands whose waterbird communities, without protection, would likely experience high limitations in thermal adjustment in the coming decades. This highlights that the location of existing protected areas may effectively support the thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to future climate warming. However, 490 sites considered at risk lack protection, including 32 sites of international importance for waterbirds, stressing the need to strengthen the protected areas network in these sites in priority. Our study provides important guidance for conservation planning in the Mediterranean region to support waterbird responses to climate change.