Current Protected Area Network Research Articles

Anticipating the effects of climate warming and natural habitat conversion on waterbird communities to address protection gaps

Thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to climate warming is crucial but hampered by natural habitat conversion, increasing their climatic debt. As it is, in contrast, facilitated in protected areas, assessing the adequacy of the current protected areas network with respect to future climate and land-use changes and identifying priority sites to protect is of major importance. In this study, we assess the thermal adjustment limitations that non-breeding waterbird communities might experience by the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean region to highlight priorities for wetland protection. Priorities were set by combining the exposure of waterbird communities to natural habitat conversion and climate warming with their thermal specialization. The latter was calculated using winter abundance data of 151 species from 2932 sites of the International Waterbird Census in 21 Mediterranean countries. Exposure was assessed using future projections of temperature and land-use under four CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). We found that strictly protected areas are located in wetlands whose waterbird communities, without protection, would likely experience high limitations in thermal adjustment in the coming decades. This highlights that the location of existing protected areas may effectively support the thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to future climate warming. However, 490 sites considered at risk lack protection, including 32 sites of international importance for waterbirds, stressing the need to strengthen the protected areas network in these sites in priority. Our study provides important guidance for conservation planning in the Mediterranean region to support waterbird responses to climate change.

A bolder conservation future for Indonesia by prioritising biodiversity, carbon and unique ecosystems in Sulawesi

As more ambitious protected area (PA) targets for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework are set beyond Aichi Target 11, renew thinking into spatial prioritisation is required to enable PA expansion that maximises environmental values. Our study focuses on the biodiverse and forest-rich Indonesian island of Sulawesi, which has a terrestrial PA network that covers 10% of the island. We used Marxan to investigate trade-offs in the design of an expanded PA network that prioritised different conservation features (biodiversity, forest cover, carbon stock, karst and valuable metal-rich areas) under varying island-wide coverage targets (17%, 30%, and 50%). Our first scenario, which required existing PAs to be selected, required larger areas to meet these coverage targets, in contrast to our second scenario, which allowed for any part of the island to be chosen, irrespective of PA status. The vast Mekongga and Bangkiriang Landscapes, and Gorontalo corridor were consistently identified as a high priority for protection under all scenarios. To meet our conservation targets through expanding current PAs, creating new PAs, and creating corridors that connect existing PAs, we used a spatially explicit three-phase approach. Our findings identified 26,508 km2 of priority areas to be included in the current PA network, potentially assisting Indonesia in meeting its post-2020 GBF target, if our approach is replicated across Indonesia as a national or sub-national analysis. We discuss various land management options through other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) and the costs to deliver this strategy.

Expanded distribution and predicted suitable habitat for the critically endangered yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Perú.

The Tropical Andes Biodiversity Hotspot holds a remarkable number of species at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic habitat loss, hunting, and climate change. One of these species, the critically endangered yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda), was recently observed in the region Junín, 206 kmsouth of its previously known distribution. This range extension, combined with continued habitat loss, calls for a reevaluation of the species distribution, and available suitable habitat. Here, we present novel data from surveys at 53 sites in the regions of Junín, Cerro de Pasco, Ayacucho, and Cusco. We encountered L. flavicauda at 9 sites, all in Junín, and the congeneric Lagothrix lagotricha tschudii at 20 sites, but never in sympatry. Using these new localities along with all previous geographic localities for the species, we made predictive species distribution models based on ecological niche modeling using a generalized linear model and maximum entropy. Each model incorporated bioclimatic variables, forest cover, vegetation measurements, and elevation as predictor variables. The model evaluation showed >80% accuracy for all measures. Precipitation was the strongest predictor of species presence. Habitat suitability maps illustrate potential corridors for gene flow between the southern and northern populations, although much of this area is inhabited by L. l. tschudii whereas L. flavicauda has yet to be officially confirmed in these areas, by these or any other scientific surveys. An analysis of the current protected area (PA) network showed that ~75% of remaining suitable habitat is unprotected. With this, we suggest priority areas for new PAs or expansions to existing reserves that would conserve potential corridors between L. flavicauda populations. Further surveys and characterization of the distribution in intermediate areas, combined with studies on gene flow through these areas, are still needed to protect this species.

Integrating climate‐change refugia into 30 by 30 conservation planning in North America

Countries have set targets for conserving natural areas to mitigate biodiversity loss, such as the protection of 30% of lands by 2030, commonly referred to as “30 by 30”. Yet strategic conservation planning to align those targets with climate‐change refugia is lacking. We investigated the feasibility of achieving 30 by 30 in North America by assessing the proportions of state/provincial/territorial land projected to provide refugia for terrestrial biodiversity and the proportions of those refugia that are currently protected. We also conducted a reserve selection prioritization to identify priority areas that complement the current protected area network and capture refugia for seven taxonomic groups. In North America, <15% of refugia are protected, but ample opportunity exists to expand protection if warming is limited to 2°C. Beyond 2°C, however, the majority of refugia will occur only at high latitudes and elevations. Incorporation of refugia into 30 by 30 efforts will facilitate species persistence under climate change.

Expanding protected areas in a Neotropical hotspot

ABSTRACT The region of central Veracruz is considered a biodiversity hotspot due to its high species richness and environmental heterogeneity, but only 2% of this region is currently protected. This study aimed to assess the current protected area system’s effectiveness and to identify priority conservation areas for expanding the existing protected area system. We used the distribution models of 1186 species from three kingdoms (Animalia, Plantae, and Fungi) together with ZONATION software, a conservation planning tool, to determine areas that could help expand the current network of protected areas. We applied three different parametrizations (including only species, using the boundary quality penalty, and using corridor connectivity). We found that protecting an additional 15% of the area would increase, between 16.2% and 19.3%, the protection of the distribution area of all species. We propose that the regions with a consensus of the three parametrizations should be declared as new protected areas to expand 374 km2 to the 216 km2 already protected. Doing so would double the protected surface in central Veracruz. The priority areas identified in this study have more species richness, carbon stock values, natural vegetation cover, and less human impact index than the existing protected areas. If our identified priority areas are declared protected, we could expect a future recovery of endangered species populations for Veracruz. The proposed new protected areas are planned and designed as corridors connecting currently isolated protected areas to promote biodiversity protection.

Extensive protected area coverage and an updated global population estimate for the Endangered Madagascar Serpent-eagleEutriorchis astur

SummaryKnowledge gaps regarding distribution, habitat associations, and population size for rare and threatened range-restricted taxa lead to uncertainty in directing conservation action. Quantifying range metrics and species–habitat associations using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with remote-sensing habitat data can overcome these setbacks by establishing baseline estimates for biological parameters critical for conservation assessments. Area of Habitat (AOH) is a new range metric recently developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. AOH seeks to quantify inferred habitat within a species’ range to inform extinction risk assessments. Here, we used SDMs correlating occurrences with remote-sensing covariates to calculate a first estimate of AOH for the Endangered Madagascar Serpent-eagleEutriorchis astur, and then updated additional IUCN range metrics and the current global population estimate. From these baselines we then conducted a gap analysis assessing protected area coverage. Our continuous SDM had robust predictive performance (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.835) and when reclassified to a binary model estimated an AOH = 30,121 km2, 13% less than the current IUCN range map. We estimated a global population of 533 mature individuals derived from the Madagascar Serpent-eagle AOH metric, which was within current IUCN population estimates. The current protected area network covered 95% of AOH, with the binary model identifying three additional key habitat areas as new protected area designations to fully protect Madagascar Serpent-eagle habitat. Our results demonstrated that correlating presence-only occurrences with remote-sensing habitat covariates can fill knowledge gaps useful for informing conservation action. Applying this spatial information to conservation planning would ensure almost full protected area coverage for this endangered raptor. For tropical forest habitat specialists, we recommend that potential predictors derived from remote sensing, such as vegetation indices and biophysical measures, are considered as covariates, along with other variables including climate and topography.

Ecological niche modeling applied to the conservation of the East Asian relict endemism Glyptostrobus pensilis (Cupressaceae)

Glyptostrobus pensilis (Cupressaceae) is the only surviving species of the genus Glyptostrobus. Although the species is widely cultivated throughout China, in the wild it only occurs as small stands in southeastern China, central Laos, and southern Vietnam. However, its low genetic variability, lack of recruitment, and the progressive destruction of its habitat caused by humans, have meant that the populations are showing a clear declining trend and the species as a whole is threatened. Ecological niche modeling is used here to study the present potential distribution, as well as in the future (2061–2080) using several global circulation models under two of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 126 and SSP 585) that are being used to produce the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The current potential area of G. pensilis is of 1,452,481 km2 with the areas of greatest probability of presence located in southeastern China. This potential area is reduced for the future according to most models, with greater losses for the SSP 585 scenario. Between 6.9 and 31.3% of all wild populations of G. pensilis would be outside potential areas (including the Lao populations, which harbor the highest levels of genetic variability). Conservation measures include the expansion of the current network of protected areas (since over 90% of wild populations do not occur within them), the development of propagation techniques, and the carrying out of translocation activities that should require international collaboration among the countries in which the species is found. With the current knowledge, we have reassessed the threat status of the species under the IUCN criteria, downgrading it from CR to EN both for China and at global level.

Benefits of protected area networks for breeding bird populations and communities

AbstractProtected areas are a cornerstone of international conservation. The EU Natura 2000 network is the largest coordinated network of protected areas in the world, but its impact on biodiversity at the landscape scale is largely unknown. Here, we use data from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) survey squares across Britain to test whether species abundance and population trends and levels of bird community specialisation are correlated with protected area coverage of BBS survey squares or 5‐km buffers around BBS squares. We compared area coverage by Natura 2000 protection and by the less strict protection of Sites of Special Scientific Interest protection alone. The abundance of birds of higher conservation concern and an index of community specialisation were positively correlated with coverage by protected area within survey squares and in a 5‐km buffer around squares. Population trends of species of higher conservation concern were positively correlated with the coverage of squares by Sites of Special Scientific Interest and the coverage of Natura 2000 within a 5‐km buffer around squares. The results suggest that Natura 2000 protection, in particular has positive conservation benefits for birds of higher conservation concern and community specialisation. This highlights the importance of protected areas, especially those with strictest protection, for maintaining biodiversity. Post‐Brexit, the UK should adopt legislation that results in the maintenance and strengthening of the current protected area network, as enforcing protection at a level of that provided by the Nature Directives is essential. As currently around half of Natura 2000 sites are not in favourable condition, even greater conservation benefits might be accrued if protected area management were improved.

Using Tracking Data to Identify Gaps in Knowledge and Conservation of the Critically Endangered Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus)

The critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) is the world’s third most endangered species of crane. Despite the enhanced conservation actions in recent years, there are pieces of evidence that suggest that its population is continuously decreasing. To gain insights into the possible causes of the population decline, we tracked nine Siberian cranes in Russia and Mongolia using GPS transmitters. We obtained migration episodes based on over 0.31 million subsequent locations from 3283 bird days between June 1995 and December 2021. Siberian cranes migrated an average of 5604 ± 362 km in spring from wintering to breeding areas and a mean of 5265 ± 454 km from breeding to wintering areas. We identified 35 staging sites along the migration corridor, including 17 critical staging sites at which birds staged for >14 days and 18 stopover sites that supported individuals for more than two days within a ca. 200 km-wide migratory corridor. Of the areas used by the tagged cranes, 77% of the breeding areas in Russia, 55% of the staging areas, 99% of the non-breeding summering area in Mongolia, and 50% of the wintering areas in Poyang Lake in China lay outside the current protected area network. Although we should be prudent about interpreting the conservation gaps of the entire population from only a few tracked birds, these results strongly suggest that the current protection network for this numerically rare species is inadequate, requiring urgent review.

The fate of giant panda and its sympatric mammals under future climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of biodiversity under global climate change is one of the major tasks in ecology and conservation biology. Although species' vulnerability to climate change depends on habitat exposure, species sensitivity and adaptability, multifaceted studies on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are still lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this gap by assessing the vulnerability of giant panda with its sympatric mammal species in Sichuan province of China, through the climate niche factor analysis. We found that species sensitivity plays a greater role than habitat exposure in determining the vulnerability of these species under future climate change, which doesn't closely match their current conservation status. Besides, these mammals were predicted to be more vulnerable at lower altitudes or latitudes. In particular, Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains emerge as the most vulnerable places to climate change. The conservation gap analysis demonstrated that the current protected area network covers no more than 5 % of the most vulnerable areas. Together, these results highlight the importance of using multifaceted analyses by integrating species sensitivity and habitat exposure to assess climate-related risks to better inform biodiversity conservation and management.

Predicting the effects of climate change on deep-water coral distribution around New Zealand-Will there be suitable refuges for protection at the end of the 21st century?

Deep-water corals are protected in the seas around New Zealand by legislation that prohibits intentional damage and removal, and by marine protected areas where bottom trawling is prohibited. However, these measures do not protect them from the impacts of a changing climate and ocean acidification. To enable adequate future protection from these threats we require knowledge of the present distribution of corals and the environmental conditions that determine their preferred habitat, as well as the likely future changes in these conditions, so that we can identify areas for potential refugia. In this study, we built habitat suitability models for 12 taxa of deep-water corals using a comprehensive set of sample data and predicted present and future seafloor environmental conditions from an earth system model specifically tailored for the South Pacific. These models predicted that for most taxa there will be substantial shifts in the location of the most suitable habitat and decreases in the area of such habitat by the end of the 21st century, driven primarily by decreases in seafloor oxygen concentrations, shoaling of aragonite and calcite saturation horizons, and increases in nitrogen concentrations. The current network of protected areas in the region appear to provide little protection for most coral taxa, as there is little overlap with areas of highest habitat suitability, either in the present or the future. We recommend an urgent re-examination of the spatial distribution of protected areas for deep-water corals in the region, utilising spatial planning software that can balance protection requirements against value from fishing and mineral resources, take into account the current status of the coral habitats after decades of bottom trawling, and consider connectivity pathways for colonisation of corals into potential refugia.

Protection gaps in Amazon floodplains will increase with climate change: Insight from the world's largest scaled freshwater fish

Abstract The Amazon floodplains represent important surfaces of highly valuable ecosystems, yet they remain neglected from protected areas. Although the efficiency of the protected area network of the Amazon basin may be jeopardized by climate change, floodplains are exposed to important consequences of climate change but are omitted from species distribution models and protection gap analyses. The present and future (2070) distribution of the giant bony‐tongue fish Arapaima spp. (Arapaimidae) was modelled accounting for climate and habitat requirements, and with a consideration of dam presence (already existing and planned constructions) and hydroperiod (high‐ and low‐water stages). The amount of suitable environment that falls inside and outside the current network of protected areas was quantified to identify spatial conservation gaps. We predict that climate change will cause a decline in environmental suitability by 16.6% during the high‐water stage, and by 19.4% during the low‐water stage. About 70% of the suitable environments of Arapaima spp. remain currently unprotected. The gap is higher by 0.7% during the low‐water stage. The lack of protection is likely to increase by 5% with future climate change effects. Both existing and projected dam constructions may hamper population flows between the central, Bolivian and Peruvian parts of the basin. We highlight protection gaps mostly in the south‐western part of the basin and recommend the extension of the current network of protected areas in the floodplains of the upper Ucayali, Juruà and Purus rivers and their tributaries. This study has shown the importance of integrating hydroperiod and dispersal barriers in forecasting the distribution of freshwater fish species, and stresses the urgent need to integrate floodplains within the protected area networks.

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered tree Firmiana kwangsiensis using the Maxent modeling.

The upsurge in anthropogenic climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wild animals and plants. The rare and endangered plants are important biodiversity elements. However, the lack of comprehensive and reliable information on the spatial distribution of these organisms has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We explored the consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of Firmiana kwangsiensis (Malvaceae), an endangered species, to provide a reference for conservation, introduction, and cultivation of this species in new ecological zones. Modeling of the potential distribution of F. kwangsiensis under the current and two future climate scenarios in maximum entropy was performed based on 30 occurrence records and 27 environmental variables of the plant. We found that precipitation‐associated and temperature‐associated variables limited the potentially suitable habitats for F. kwangsiensis. Our model predicted 259,504 km2 of F. kwangsiensis habitat based on 25 percentile thresholds. However, the high suitable habitat for F. kwangsiensis is only about 41,027 km2. F. kwangsiensis is most distributed in Guangxi's protected areas. However, the existing reserves are only 2.7% of the total suitable habitat and 4.2% of the high suitable habitat for the plant, lower than the average protection area in Guangxi (7.2%). This means the current protected areas network is insufficient, underlining the need for alternative conservation mechanisms to protect the plant habitat. Our findings will help identify additional F. kwangsiensis localities and potential habitats and inform the development and implementation of conservation, management, and cultivation practices of such rare tree species.

Modelling habitat suitability of the Himalayan monal (Lophophorus impejanus) and its connectivity in the Himalayas

The Himalayan monal Lophophorus impejanus is a montane bird exhibiting a seasonal migration to avoid harsh winter. However, the knowledge of the suitable habitat and level of connectivity across the range for the species is not available. To close this knowledge gap relevant for the species' conservation, species distribution modelling with presence-only data and relevant environmental variables was used to determine the range-wide distribution of the species. The distribution of the species is mainly constrained by habitat and climatic variables. The connectivity of the species was modeled using the distribution model output. The study presented a currently contiguous area of suitable habitat available for the species that are well connected with evidence of metapopulation in the range edges. The study also found that the current network of protected areas is not sufficient to ensure the connectivity of the species. Conservation of the currently suitable habitat is necessary to ensure the species is conserved.

Shifted to the South, Shifted to the North, but No Expansion: Potential Suitable Habitat Distribution Shift and Conservation Gap of the Critically Endangered Baer’s Pochard (Aythya baeri)

There are many challenges in biodiversity conservation, especially for migratory waterbirds because their survival depends on the availability of a suite of interconnected sites at different stages of their annual cycle. Due to habitat loss and degradation, the population of Baer’s Pochard (Aythya baeri), a migratory diving-duck, has declined to an extent that it has been listed as a critically endangered species by the IUCN Red List. To better understand the habitat requirements of this threatened waterbird for its effective conservation, we conducted seven years of field surveys within its historical distribution range in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway including China and neighbouring countries, covering 563 observation sites at 185 locations. Twelve new locations were identified as habitats for this species. By combining our surveys with literature and citizen science birding records, 171 Baer’s Pochard’s presence sites have classified as migratory stopovers, wintering grounds and breeding and potential breeding habitats. We then used Maxent model to estimate the potential distribution range and updated and refined the current IUCN distribution map. Finally, we identified the key conservation gaps by overlaying the distribution with a recent remotely acquired global landcover map. Our results show that: (1) The southernmost breeding site is about 1400 km south of its current IUCN breeding range; (2) the northern most wintering site is 800 km north of the IUCN wintering range; (3) Six newly discovered sites in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangxi and Hubei provinces, China are confirmed to be used all year round; (4) Most sites (81.8%) are not located in protected areas (PAs), and the majority of the suitable habitats (90%) are not protected by the current PA network. Our findings reveal that great changes have taken place in the distribution of Baer’s Pochard and that there are many distribution overlaps throughout its annual migration circle (e.g., many historical stopover sites become breeding habitats). Moreover, the key habitats have retreated into eastern Asia, and most of the habitats overlap with urban developed areas and are outside of current PA network. Our study suggests that the existing PA network may be less effective for the conservation of this critically endangered species under predicted global climate change, and other effective area-based conservation measures should be part of the conservation strategy. More importantly, as the distribution of Baer’s Pochard covers at least 15 countries, closely coordinated cross-border cooperation would be critical for its future survival.

Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts

Abstract The freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera has been suffering major population declines in Europe. This endangered species is a host specialist and exclusively requires salmonid species (Salmo trutta and Salmo salar) to complete its life cycle. In theory, obligatory biotic interactions should deserve special conservation attention, because the loss or massive decline of fish hosts may elicit the extirpation of their affiliated species. While many threats disturbing M. margaritifera are similarly affecting salmonids, climate change is particularly alarming, with the potential to significantly change the fish‐mussel dynamics. To evaluate the importance of including the occurrence of fish hosts for predicting the distribution of M. margaritifera in Europe, three datasets were used to build species distribution models (SDMs) with a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach: (1) environmental variables (ENV); (2) probability of fish hosts occurrence (FH); and (3) environmental variables and probability of fish hosts occurrence (ENV + FH). We identified the environmental variables that better explain M. margaritifera distribution and modelled its current and future distribution under a suite of climate change scenarios. Furthermore, projections were used to evaluate the adequacy of current networks of European protected areas in covering the suitable habitats for M. margaritifera. Results showed that incorporating data about fish hosts into M. margaritifera SDMs avoided the overprediction of geographical projections and, to a minor extent, improved model performance (area under the curve: ENV = 0.851; FH = 0.848; ENV + FH = 0.867). The distribution range of M. margaritifera in Europe is expected to contract in all future timeframes and emission scenarios considered. Forecasts point to large contractions particularly in central and southern Europe and lowland regions. The European network of protected areas fails to protect 69% of the current and 66%–67% of the future predicted M. margaritifera distribution. This study clearly illustrates the importance of including mussel–fish hosts interactions for accurately predicting M. margaritifera's distribution. The response of M. margaritifera to environmental variables highlights its vulnerability to the higher temperatures, particularly in southern Europe. While predictions indicate large contractions in M. margaritifera's distribution as a result of future climate change, the current European network of protected areas fails to safeguard M. margaritifera. This work provides strong evidence for proposing the generalised use of biotic information about hosts in addition to purely environmental variables to model the distribution of freshwater mussels, as well as for other species with obligatory biotic interactions. Building SDMs such as those discussed here can inform political decision‐making about the likely scenarios for species occurrence in future decades, the requirements needed for an effective conservation strategy, and the regions where conservation should be a priority.

Applying a systematic conservation planning tool and ecological risk index for spatial prioritization and optimization of protected area networks in Iran

One of the key purposes of conservation selection strategies is to design a network of sites to support relevant biodiversity components and, therefore, decrease the risk of populations becoming isolated. To this end, it is important to be aware of the habitat locations of the target species and the threats of human activities, in order to identify areas of a high conservation priority. This paper takes the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province (Iran) as a case study, to highlight a network optimization for six target species of conservation concern, including the Persian leopard, Panthera pardus Pocock, wild sheep, Ovis orientalis Gmelin and wild goat, Capra aegagrus Erxleben. To run the optimization, we first generated the following input data: we modelled suitable habitats, using the InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) and simulated the ecological impact of road networks (Spatial Road Disturbance Index (SPROADI), Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and the Landscape Ecological Risk Index (ERI)). A visual inspection of the input data revealed that a large percentage of the study area constitutes a suitable habitat for the target species, however, the disturbances caused by the road demonstrate that the central and north-eastern regions of the study area are significantly affected. Indeed, approximately 10% and 25% of the study area are in the high and medium risk categories, respectively. Optimization using Marxan, shows that the north-western and southern regions of the study area should be given high conservation priority, necessary for an efficient conservation network. Habitats located in the north-central region should act as stepping-stone areas or corridors between the isolated regions in the north-east and the well-connected areas in the north-west and south. Overall, the findings of the present study show that the current network of protected areas is not contradictory to that suggested by Marxan, but has deficiencies in terms of size and stepping-stones.

In Pursuit of New Spaces for Threatened Mammals: Assessing Habitat Suitability for Kashmir Markhor (Capra falconeri cashmeriensis) in the Hindukush Range

Natural wild habitats are either destroyed or shrunk due to human interventions. Therefore, habitat evaluation is crucial for managing wildlife populations and designing robust conservation strategies. Species presence data and geographic information system (GIS) coupled with ground-breaking powerful statistical techniques have made such assessments possible. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to identify suitable habitats for Kashmir markhor (Capra falconeri cashmeriensis) in Malakand Division, Pakistan. MaxEnt was applied to 169 markhor sighting points and topographical and current bioclimatic variables. Results showed that the accuracy of the MaxEnt model was good (AUC = 0.889). Of the total area studied (8407.09 km2), 22.35% (1878.75 km2) was highly suitable and 32.63% (2743.53 km2) was moderately suitable for markhor. Protected areas including Chitral Gol National Park (CGNP), Tooshi-Sasha Conservancy (TSC), and Gehrait-Golain Conservancy (GGC) and their buffers were included in highly suitable habitats. MaxEnt also predicted highly suitable habitats in Kumrat and Kalam valleys. We believe that moderately suitable habitats identified in Jinjeret, Ursoon, Birir valley, and Bumborait valley have the potential to host markhor populations. Based on the results obtained in the current study, we strongly recommend expanding the current protected areas (PAs) network in the study area and strengthening it by inclusive conservation management with local communities.

Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe.

Climate plays a major role in shaping biodiversity patterns over time and space, with ongoing changes leading to the reorganization of ecosystems, which challenges conservation initiatives. Identifying areas that could serve as possible climate change refugia for future biodiversity is, thus, critical for both conservation and management. Here, we identify potential future climatic refugia within the Euro-Mediterranean biome, which is a global biodiversity hotspot, while accounting for multiple emission climate change projections over the next 50years. We developed two metrics of climatic variability: temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity. We then used a systematic conservation planning approach to identify climate-based priority areas. While we used a climate-based, species-neutral methodology, we deliberately implemented low climatic velocity thresholds, so that the identified climatic refugia would even be compatible with the needs of species with low dispersal capacity, such as plants. Our projections showed that future climatic refugia would be more frequently observed in mid-altitudes, for gradients with steep elevations, and mainly in the eastern part of the Euro-Mediterranean biome, with possible conflicts with existing land uses and future conservation implications. Climatic, land use, and topography results indicated that only a limited number of refugia would be hosted by high elevation habitats (>1500m), raising possible concerns about the biodiversity of Mediterranean mountain regions. Our analyses show that the current network of protected areas captures future climatic refugia disproportionally, despite their importance for safeguarding present and future biodiversity in the Mediterranean. Key climatic refugia could limit the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity in mid-altitude and mountainous regions, and should be included in management guidelines for a climate-ready conservation design in the Mediterranean biome.

Multi-taxa spatial conservation planning reveals similar priorities between taxa and improved protected area representation with climate change

Protected area (PA) networks have in the past been constructed to include all major habitats, but have often been developed through consideration of only a few indicator taxa or across restricted areas, and rarely account for global climate change. Systematic conservation planning (SCP) aims to improve the efficiency of biodiversity conservation, particularly when addressing internationally agreed protection targets. We apply SCP in Great Britain (GB) using the widest taxonomic coverage to date (4,447 species), compare spatial prioritisation results across 18 taxa and use projected future (2080) distributions to assess the potential impact of climate change on PA network effectiveness. Priority conservation areas were similar among multiple taxa, despite considerable differences in spatial species richness patterns; thus systematic prioritisations based on indicator taxa for which data are widely available are still useful for conservation planning. We found that increasing the number of protected hectads by 2% (to reach the 2020 17% Aichi target) could have a disproportionate positive effect on species protected, with an increase of up to 17% for some taxa. The PA network in GB currently under-represents priority species but, if the potential future distributions under climate change are realised, the proportion of species distributions protected by the current PA network may increase, because many PAs are in northern and higher altitude areas. Optimal locations for new PAs are particularly concentrated in southern and upland areas of GB. This application of SCP shows how a small addition to an existing PA network could have disproportionate benefits for species conservation.