An integrative climate and land cover change detection unveils extensive range contraction in mountain newts

Abstract

The global decline of amphibian populations, driven by anthropogenic activities, is a pressing conservation issue, with salamanders being of particular concern, as these species serve as ecological indicators vulnerable to environmental change. Mountain newts of the Neurergus genus, which are endemic to the Zagros Mountain chain from southeastern Turkey to northern Iraq and southwestern Iran, face a multitude of threats. Among these threats, climate change and land use alterations have been identified as major contributors to the decline of these species. Given the varying spatiotemporal scales at which these factors operate, in this study we aimed to assess the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes (LULCC) on the distribution of the Neurergus genus. We employed MaxEnt model to predict their habitat suitability under current climatic conditions. We projected the predicted model to the future, i.e., 2050, under two climate change scenarios. We then proceeded to map the LULC patterns of the identified suitable habitats for each species using Landsat satellite images, and conducted a hindcast of LULCC within these habitats for three time-slices 1988, 2005, and 2020. Finally, we evaluated the efficiency of current network of protected areas (PAs) and key biodiversity areas (KBAs) in Iran, Iraq, and Turkey to cover suitable habitats of the species. Our results revealed that climate changes would negatively influence all Neurergus species, with southern species in Iran and Iraq, i.e., N. derjugini, N. kaiseri, and N. crocatus exhibiting the greatest range loss. Conversely, LULC change detection indicated that northern species in Turkey, i.e., N. strauchii and N. barani, are more exposed to cropland developments and have experienced greatest habitat changes over the past 30 years. Ultimately, our findings underscore the insufficiency of extant conservation areas in protecting Neurergus habitats and urge the need for comprehensive conservation measures. We recommend promoting less strictly conserved areas, e.g., KBAs, implementing trans-boundary conservation plans, and designating new reserves to ensure long-term preservation of amphibians in the regions.