Current Distribution Area Research Articles

Effects of climate change on the distribution of Pinus chihuahuana and Pinus leiophylla: a proposal for the conservation of both species in Mexico

The use of distribution models is a tool used to solve biological and environmental problems. Geographic data andenvironmental variables were analyzed to test the hypothesis that the distribution of Pinus chihuahuana and Pinus leiophyllawill be maintained by 2050 and 2080 in Mexico. Records of both species and environmental variables for the period 1910-2009 and Global Circulation Models (GFDL-CM3 and CNRM-CM5) were used under two RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenariosprojected to 2050 and 2080. The MaxEnt algorithm was used. The results were evaluated and validated using AUC, partialRoc and Z-statistic tests. The contribution of each variable in the models was determined using the Jackknife test. Themodels estimated a current potential distribution area for P. chihuahuana of 81,614.8 km² and 15,105.3 km² for P. leiophylla.The relevant variables in the current period for P. chihuahuana were Bio1, Bio6, Bio13 and Bio19, while in P. leiophylla theywere Bio1, Veget and Edaf. However, for the future period they were Bio1, Bio19 and Bio13 for P. chihuahuana, and Bio1,Bio14 and Bio4 for P. leiophylla. The CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3 GCM projections estimated a reduction in the rangesof both species from 2080 onwards. Conservation areas of 79,078.12 km² for P. chihuahuana and 10,517.8 km² for P.leiophylla were estimated at the end of the century. Areas suitable for the conservation of P. chihuahuana (Chihuahua andDurango) and P. leiophylla (Michoacán) in Mexico were identified and proposed.

Geographical distribution and potential distribution prediction of thirteen species of Citrus L. in China.

Using DIVA-GIS software to study the spatial accumulation of Citrus species, an important economic crop in China. Draw the distribution maps of Citrus to concerning altitude and vegetation, and use DIVA-GIS' Bioclim ecological model and maximum information entropy model Maxent software to estimate the potential distribution areas of various Citrus species. The results show that the Citrus genus is located in the south of Qinling Mountains, mainly in the southwest of China and the coast of southeastern China. Sichuan and Chongqing are the most densely distributed regions of Citrus. The distribution of Citrus is closely related to the vegetation type and altitude. The vegetation types in the distribution area is evergreen broad-leaved forest, evergreen shrub, deciduous broad-leaved forest, mixed-leaf forest coverage area, deciduous coniferous forest, farmland, trees, other vegetation coverage, and evergreen coniferous forest. The current potential distribution area of Citrus is mainly in Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan,Sichuan, Chongqing, and other provinces and municipalities and their borders, while the potential distribution area in the future moves northward and enter Henan and southern Gansu. At the same time, climate warming changes the distribution of suitable areas of Citrus, which makes the suitable areas of C. sinensis Osbeck, C. reticulata Blanco, and other crops greatly increased. Planning the planting area will effectively improve the yield and quality in the future. Planning presents new challenges.

An Endemic Vascular Plant Species for Türkiye, Ferulago Humilis Boiss., and Its Potential Distribution Areas

Turkey is expected to be affected considerably in future adverse climatic conditions. Plant species are one of the most vulnerable to these climatic changes. In this study, we aimed to investigate current and future potential distribution areas of Ferulago humilis Boiss., which is an endemic vascular plant species for Turkey, using CMIP5 projected to year 2070. For this purpose, we obtained occurence data (presence-only) from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Regarding bioclimatic data we used WorldClim dataset with 10 km2 resolution. Using both plant occurrence and bioclimatic data, we performed species distribution modelling analysis. We used two methods namely Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Random Forest (RF). Additionally, we used bootstrapping method as partitioning resampling for all analysis. Our analysis has showed that potential distribution areas of the species has slightly changed for the future projection. The species movement is towards slightly upwards as higher latitudes. We believe that our study shows the importance and relevance of the endemic species in the scope of species distribution models for plant conservation topics.

The Eucalyptus snout beetle in Colombia: Selection and evaluation of entomopathogenic fungi as bioinsecticides against Gonipterus platensis

The Eucalyptus snout beetles, which belong to the Gonipterus scutellatus species complex, cause heavy damage to Eucalyptus spp. worldwide. The species was reported in Antioquia, Colombia for the first time in 2016, threatening more than 115,000 ha of planted Eucalyptus spp. Elsewhere, its damage has been controlled using Anaphes spp. as classical biological control, but Anaphes spp. are not available in Colombia, where there are no documented control methods for this species to date. We identified the Gonipterus species using molecular methods and isolated entomopathogenic fungi from naturally infected beetles collected from the current distribution area in Colombia. We characterised the fungal isolates, selecting the best to develop a biological control agent. We considered insecticidal activity, UV-B radiation tolerance, yield, germination, and enzyme activity of conidia in making our selection. We confirmed the presence of G. platensis in Colombia, with adults naturally infected by Beauveria spp. and Metarhizium spp. From the isolated native fungi, M. brunneum (CA-3), M. robertsii (RI-1), B. bassiana (CA-1) and (CA-2), B. pseudobassiana (SP-1) were identified. We found remarkable differences in response to different variables between the selected isolates and SP-1 and CA-3 were the most virulent. The SP-1 isolate stood out from the rest for being the most tolerant to UV-B radiation, alkaline media, and low temperatures, germinating faster and producing elevated levels of lipases, chitinases, and proteases. The identified promising native fungus isolate, naturally occurring on field individuals, could be used to develop a biopesticide for controlling G. platensis in Eucalyptus spp. plantations in Colombia.

Estimation of current and future potential distribution areas of Pistacia terebinthus L. by random forest regression algorithm

Anacardiaceae familyası üyelerinden biri olan Pistacia terebinthus (Menengiç) L. ülkemizde şifalı bitkiler arasında yer almakta kahve, sabun vb. kullanım şekilleri bulunmaktadır. Değişik amaçlardaki kullanımı ile ülkede ekonomik değere sahip olan bu türün iklim değişikliği ile birlikte ülkemizde nasıl bir dağılım göstereceği merak konusudur. Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin Pistacia terebinthus L.’nin Türkiye’deki yayılış alanları üzerine etkisini belirlemek için Random Forest regresyon algoritmasından yararlanılmıştır. Model için, Menengiç’e ait varlık verileri ve günümüz ve gelecek biyo-iklimsel değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Gelecek yayılış alanlarını belirlemek için HadGEM3-GC31-LL iklim değişikliği modeli ve SSP2 4.5 SSP5 8.5 senaryolarına ait 2041-2060 (~2050) ve 2081-2100 (~2090) periyotları tercih edilmiştir. Menengiç’in günümüz ve iki farklı senaryoya göre gelecek yayılış alanları karşılaştırıldığında, türe ait yayılış alanlarında daralmalar olacağı ve günümüzde 118245 km2 olarak hesaplanmış çok uygun olarak değerlendirilen yayılış alanlarının gelecek koşullarda olmayacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Günümüzde uygun ve çok uygun yayılış alanları toplamda 288896.243 km2 iken bu sayının, SSP2 4.5 senaryosu ~2050 ve ~2090 periyotlarında sırası ile yaklaşık %50 ve %40’lara kadar gerileyeceği ve SSP5 8.5 senaryosu ~2050 ve ~2090 periyotlarında yine sırasıyla yaklaşık %45 ve %15’ine kadar gerileceği görülmektedir.

Potential Global Distribution of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes koreicus under a Changing Climate.

Invasive alien species are a growing threat to natural systems, the economy, and human health. Active surveillance and responses that readily suppress newly established colonies are effective actions to mitigate the noxious consequences of biological invasions. Aedes (Hulecoeteomyia) koreicus (Edwards), a mosquito species native to East Asia, has spread to parts of Europe and Central Asia since 2008. In the last decade, Ae. koreicus has been shown to be a competent vector for chikungunya virus and Dirofilaria immitis. However, information about the current and potential distribution of Ae. koreicus is limited. Therefore, to understand the changes in their global distribution and to contribute to the monitoring and control of Ae. koreicus, in this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict and analyze the current suitable distribution area of Ae. koreicus in the world to provide effective information.

Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China

Cultivating cotton and sustaining its productivity are challenging in temperate arid regions around the globe. Exploring suitable cotton cultivation areas to improve productivity in such climatic regions is essential. Thus, this study explores the ecologically suitable areas for cotton cultivation using the MaxEnt model, having 375 distribution points of long-staple cotton and various factors, including 19 climatic factors, 2 terrain factors, and 6 soil factors in Xinjiang. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predicted results was greater than 0.9, indicating that the model’s predictions had fairly high accuracy. However, the main environmental factors that affected the cotton’s growth were the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the hottest month, the precipitation in the driest season, and the monthly average temperature difference. Further, the temperature factors contributed 71%, while the contribution ratio of terrain and soil factors was only 22%. The research indicated that the current planting area was consistent with the predicted area in many areas of the study. Still, some areas, such as the Turpan region northwest of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, are supposed to be suitable for planting cotton, but it is not planted. The current potential distribution area of long-staple cotton is mainly located in Aksu Prefecture and the northern part of the Kashgar Prefecture region. The climatic prediction shows that the growing area of long-staple cotton may expand to southern Altay, central Aksu, and Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. This study will be helpful for cotton cultivation suitability areas in Xinjiang and other regions with similar environments.

Predicting Suitable Habitats for China’s Endangered Plant Handeliodendron bodinieri (H. Lév.) Rehder

Demarcating a plant species’ actual and potential biogeographical distribution is crucial for understanding the key environmental variables shaping its habitat conditions. We used MaxEnt and species distribution modeling to predict the likely range of China’s endangered species, Handeliodendron bodinieri (H. Lév.) Rehder, based on forty-four validated distribution records and eight selected environmental variables. Combined with percentage contribution and permutation importance, the jackknife statistical method was applied to test and evaluate pertinent factors restricting the potential distribution of H. bodinieri. The response curves of critical bioclimatic factors were employed to determine the potential species range. The generated MaxEnt model was confirmed to have excellent simulation accuracy. The current core potential distribution areas are concentrated in the Guangxi and Guizhou provinces of Southwest China, with a significant inter-regional difference. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) had the greatest impact on the distribution area of H. bodinieri. The findings could provide useful information and a reasonable reference for managers to enhance the protection of this declining species.

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model.

Monochamus carolinensis is an important vector of pinewood nematodes in North America that is under quarantine in several countries worldwide. The distribution of M. carolinensis was previously thought to be limited to North America; however, we discovered it during trapping in China in 2022. Using this discovery and information regarding the area of origin, we applied a machine-learning algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle to predict the current and future (2050s, 2070s) potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis using bioclimatic variables. The biological suitability of M. carolinensis was mainly driven by precipitation factors (BIO18, BIO15, BIO19), with 87.18% of the potential distribution areas located in South America, Asia, North America and Africa. Future potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis are predicted to expand to high latitudes, with an average increase of 10 245 874.88 km2 , and only 6.89% of the current suitable areas will become unsuitable. The potential distribution areas in 2070 are largest under the SSP585 scenario, with a 41.40% predicted increase (52 309 803.61 km2 ) above the current distribution, mainly reflecting an increase of the marginally and highly suitable areas. The determination of dominant climatic factors and potential distribution areas will help provide an early warning for an M. carolinensis invasion, as well as provide a scientific basis for the spread and outbreak, facilitating development of effective governmental prevention and control measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicting the current and future suitable habitats, species distribution, and conservation assessment of Fritillaria dagana (Liliaceae)

Fritillaria dagana Turcz. has a restricted global distribution, occurring only in southern Siberia and northern Mongolia. Concerning its restricted distribution and endangered conservation status, we aimed to forecast its current and future suitable habitats as well as distribution shifts for 2050 and 2080. The Maxent model with different scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5) was used to analyze 113 georeferenced records of F. dagana using 19 bioclimatic factors from the WorldClim database. As a result, the amount and variance of precipitation and temperature, together with elevation, were shown to be the most significant factors affecting the species' distribution. In particular, precipitation during the plant growing season had the greatest impact (55.2% variability) on the species distribution. Climate change was expected to cause a minor shift in the distribution of suitable habitats toward the north and an increase in habitat continuity, indicating that the climate will become more favorable for the growth of species and in the future. The species' highly suitable area will remain primarily concentrated in its current potential distribution area in central Siberia (around Lake Baikal). The species' conservation status was determined to be near threatened, emphasizing the great relevance of facilitating proper conservation measures for F. dagana.

The predicted potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in China under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1–2.6

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is one of the 100 most invasive species in the world and represents a significant threat to public health. The distribution of Ae. albopictus has been expanding rapidly due to increased international trade, population movement, global warming and accelerated urbanization. Consequently, it is very important to know the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in advance for early warning and control of its spread and invasion. We randomly selected 282 distribution sites from 27 provincial-level administrative regions in China, and used the GARP and MaxEnt models to analyze and predict the current and future distribution areas of Ae. albopictus in China. The results showed that the current range of Ae. albopictus in China covers most provinces such as Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces, and the distribution of Ae. albopictus in border provinces such as Tibet, Gansu and Jilin Provinces tend to expand westwards. In addition, the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in China will continue to expand westwards due to future climate change under the SSP126 climate scenario. Furthermore, the results of environmental factor filtering showed that temperature and precipitation had a large effect on the distribution probability of Ae. albopictus.

Characterisation and Dynamics of an Emerging Seagrass Meadow

Seagrasses are habitat-forming species that support biodiversity and a wide range of associated ecosystem services, from blue carbon capture to providing nursery areas for a variety of organisms. Their decline has been documented worldwide and is attributed to human impacts ranging from habitat loss and eutrophication to the effects of climate change. However, recent recovery trends have also been documented due to reductions in stressors, passive and active restoration, and even changes in environmental conditions owing to local management. In this study, we document for the first time the occurrence of Zostera noltei in the downstream area of the River Minho Estuary. This occurrence was unexpected given the hydrological conditions of the estuary, characterised by dredging and siltation. We reconstructed the occurrence and historical distribution of seagrass beds, and showed that they have existed in the region for more than a decade. The current distribution area was mapped using high-resolution multispectral remote sensing techniques, and in situ photoquadrats to complement the remote sensing information with an evaluation of the seagrass cover. A current seagrass area of 0.81 ha was found with an average cover of 70%. However, the Minho Estuary continues to be strongly affected by sediment deposition, which may affect the seagrass population in the long term. Continued surveys are recommended to confirm the long-term trend of colonisation of this important habitat, which ultimately provides so many benefits to coastal ecosystems and humankind.

Predictions based on phylogeography and climatic niche modelling depict an uncertain future scenario for giant blister beetles (Berberomeloe, Meloidae) facing intensive greenhouse expansion and global warming

Abstract Large‐scale agricultural and tourism development are the main threats to biodiversity in south‐eastern Spain. Species with low dispersal abilities, such as some endemic insects from this region, are particularly vulnerable to fragmentation and loss of genetic and morphological diversity. Here, we studied the current and future threat of climate and land‐use change on the intraspecific diversity of one such group of endemics, the giant blister beetles of the Berberomeloe insignis species group. Using a phylogeographic approach and morphometrics, we identified intraspecific variation within the B. insignis species group. These data were coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM) to determine the effect of agricultural and climate change on the connectivity across phylogroups. We identified a marked geographic structure within B. insignis, with the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the two main mtDNA clades dating back to 2.1 Ma. Cyto‐nuclear discordances found across parapatric populations suggest past events of genetic introgression. B. insignis presents a head pattern that is geographically structured and mostly congruent with the four mitochondrial lineages. In contrast, diversification within Berberomeloe tenebrosus is more recent, dating back to less than 1 Ma. Future ENMs highlight the role of mountains as potential refugia under a climate warming scenario but predict extinctions in the lowlands. Based on our analyses, two lineages of B. insignis are threatened and should be urgently considered as independent conservation units, and their current geographic distribution areas protected to conserve, at the very least, a portion of the species' evolutionary heritage.

Phenological observation of Leucojum aestivum L. and determination to some morphological features and current and future potential distribution areas depending on climate change

Leucojum aestivum is a perennial bulbous plant belonging to the Amaryllidaceae family. Climate change causes an increase in the danger of plant species extinction by producing negative effects on biodiversity and geographical distribution of species. In this study, phenological observations were obtained from L. aestivum populations, which are naturally distributed in Bursa Karacabey, then the morphological characteristics were determined. Also, MaxEnt programme was used to determine the current and future potential distribution areas of the L. aestivum populations in terms of climate change. The plant height of L. aestivum was determined to be an average of 60.92 ​± ​10.38 ​cm. The width of the bulbs was 31.30 ​± ​6.77 ​mm on average, and also the mean length was 34.67 ​± ​6.22 ​mm. The mean weight was 21.35 ​± ​11.74 ​g. The mean width of the broad linear leaves is 12.61 ​± ​3.50 ​mm and also 51.53 ​± ​15.38 ​cm for their mean length. The mean width of the white flowers was 22.97 ​± ​4.01 ​mm and mean length was 20.56 ​± ​1.80 ​mm. The mean flower stalk length was found to be 36.62 ​± ​17.33 ​mm. The number of flowers was an average of 5.54 ​± ​1.21. The mean anther length was 8.98 ​± ​1.01 ​mm. The mean length of the pistil was found to be 11.93 ​± ​0.84 ​mm. The mean width of the fruits was 20.86 ​± ​3.62 ​mm. The number of fruits was found to be a minimum of 1 and maximum of 7 with an average of 2.12 ​± ​1.61. The mean width of the seeds was 6.58 ​± ​0.50 ​mm; and also the number of seeds was found to be at least 1 and at most 26 with an average of 8.16 ​± ​4.90. According to the outputs of the two scenarios, which we evaluated as mild or strict, while no situation was present that would endanger the extinction of the species in Turkey over the next 80 years based on the SSP1-2.6 scenario; however serious reductions in the distribution areas of the species based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario. For this reason, in-situ and ex-situ conservation measures should be taken according to the species and their habitat requirements, and it is suggested to impose various conservation based sanctions and restrictions apart from these measures.

Southern Europe is becoming climatically favourable for African birds: anticipating the establishment of a new species

BackgroundThe current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables.ResultsThe results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa.ConclusionsWe cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.

Gypsophila dumanii, Caryophyllaceae, a new species from Eastern Turkey

Gypsophila dumanii, a new species belonging to the section Capituliformes, is here described and compared with the most similar G. olympica. A detailed description, original photographs, the current distribution area, and the conservation status of G. dumanii are given.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models.

Climate change increases the extinction risk of species, and studying the impact of climate change on endangered species is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. In this study, the endangered plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim (M. punicea) was selected as the research object. Four species distribution models (SDMs): the generalized linear model, the generalized boosted regression tree model, random forest and flexible discriminant analysis were applied to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climates scenarios. Among them, two emission scenarios of sharing socio-economic pathways (SSPs; i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two global circulation models (GCMs) were considered for future climate conditions. Our results showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the potential distribution of M. punicea. The prediction of the four SDMs consistently indicated that the current potential distribution area of M. punicea is concentrated between 29.02° N-39.06° N and 91.40° E-105.89° E. Under future climate change, the potential distribution of M. punicea will expand from the southeast to the northwest, and the expansion area under SSP5-8.5 would be wider than that under SSP2-4.5. In addition, there were significant differences in the potential distribution of M. punicea predicted by different SDMs, with slight differences caused by GCMs and emission scenarios. Our study suggests using agreement results from different SDMs as the basis for developing conservation strategies to improve reliability.

Future Trends in Obolodiplosis robiniae Distribution across Eurasian Continent under Global Climate Change

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34' and 65°39' N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

Determination of distribution areas and reserves for state accounting of Tajik Kavrak (Ferula Tadshikorum Pimenov) resources in the flora of Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya provinces, Uzbekistan

During the 1970s and 1980s, the chemical composition of more than 50 species found in Central Asia was studied, and about 250 terpenoid substances were isolated from them. Due to the growth of the species in various ecological conditions, about 40 species are also of great importance as fodder plants. This article presents the results of our research aimed at accounting for the natural resources of tajik kavrak (Ferula tadshikorum Pimenov) in Surxondary and Kashkadarya, the southern regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan. By reading the article, you can find out the distribution of tajik kavrak. During the last 20 years in Uzbekistan, the process of collecting Tajik kavrak sap by people has been intensively carried out in the southern regions of the republic, namely Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya provinces, which are the main distribution area of the plant. Unwise use of the plant's natural resources led to the threat of complete extinction of its current natural distribution areas, which, in turn, led to the inclusion of Ferula tadshikorum Pimenov species in the next edition of the "Red Book" of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2019) with the 3rd status.

Effects of climate-change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi.

Castanea henryi, with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate-change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate-change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi, assisted by a proposed three-domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor-made strategies.