Predicting the current and future suitable habitats, species distribution, and conservation assessment of Fritillaria dagana (Liliaceae)

Abstract

Fritillaria dagana Turcz. has a restricted global distribution, occurring only in southern Siberia and northern Mongolia. Concerning its restricted distribution and endangered conservation status, we aimed to forecast its current and future suitable habitats as well as distribution shifts for 2050 and 2080. The Maxent model with different scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5) was used to analyze 113 georeferenced records of F. dagana using 19 bioclimatic factors from the WorldClim database. As a result, the amount and variance of precipitation and temperature, together with elevation, were shown to be the most significant factors affecting the species' distribution. In particular, precipitation during the plant growing season had the greatest impact (55.2% variability) on the species distribution. Climate change was expected to cause a minor shift in the distribution of suitable habitats toward the north and an increase in habitat continuity, indicating that the climate will become more favorable for the growth of species and in the future. The species' highly suitable area will remain primarily concentrated in its current potential distribution area in central Siberia (around Lake Baikal). The species' conservation status was determined to be near threatened, emphasizing the great relevance of facilitating proper conservation measures for F. dagana.