Cumulative Incidence Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

Hepatitis D virus infection markedly increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with viral B cirrhosis

The specific causative role of HDV infection in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains debated and was not specifically demonstrated in cirrhotic patients. Here we compared HCC incidence in HBV-HDV co-infected and HBV mono-infected cirrhotic patients. A total of 142 HBV-HDV and 271 HBV-infected cirrhotic patients from the French ANRSCO12 CirVir and DeltaVir cohorts, with histologically proven cirrhosis and no history of decompensation, were included in the study. HBV-HDV patients were younger than HBV patients (37.2 vs. 53.8 years), they were more often immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa, and displayed less co-morbidities and more altered liver tests. After adjustment for age, cumulative incidences of HCC in co-infected and mono-infected patients at 1, 3 and 5 years were 5.2%, 11.8% and 20.2% vs. 1.1%, 2.5% and 4.4%, respectively (P< .001). In multivariate analysis, HDV infection was an independent factor associated with the development of HCC (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.19-7.25; P= .019). Other independent factors were age (HR 1.08, 1.05-1.11; P< .001), overweight (HR 0.45, 0.22-0.93; P= .031), smoking (HR 2.26, 1.23-4.16; P= .009), increased GGT (HR 2.73, 1.24-6.00; P= .013), total bilirubin >17 μmol/L (HR 2.68, 1.33-5.42; P= .006) and platelet count <150.000/mm3 (HR 3.11, 1.51-6.41; P= .002). HDV co-infection was not an independent factor of liver decompensation, transplantation or death. The incidence of HCC appears significantly higher in HBV-HDV than in HBV-infected cirrhotic patients. HDV infection emerges as an independent risk factor for HCC, indicating that in cirrhotic patients, HDV plays a causative role for HCC independently of HBV.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-related Events in Anti-hepatitis D Virus-positive Individuals

Chronic hepatitis D (CHD) is the most severe form of chronic viral hepatitis, with a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality. Risk stratification is needed to guide HCC surveillance strategies and to prioritize treatment with antiviral agents. We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort of anti-hepatitis D virus (HDV)-positive individuals managed at sites in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. We studied the 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC and liver-related events (first of HCC, liver transplantation, and liver-related mortality), in the overall cohort and among relevant subgroups. We analyzed 269 anti-HDV-positive individuals with a median follow-up of 4.3 years in which 47 first events occurred. The 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC and liver-related events were 3.8% and 15.6% in the overall cohort. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC and liver-related events for individuals without cirrhosis was 0% and 0.9% compared with 12% and 41.3% for individuals with cirrhosis (P < .001). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC and liver-related events was 0% and 2.1% among individuals with low PAGE-B scores, compared to 3.2% and 21.1% with intermediate and 25.4% and 45.5% with high-risk scores (P < .001). We found comparable results for the Fibrosis-4 score. Findings were consistent regardless of cirrhosis or detectable HDV RNA (P < .001). Anti-HDV-positive individuals are at high risk of adverse liver-related outcomes. The incidence of HCC was negligible among individuals without cirrhosis and among individuals with low baseline PAGE-B and/or Fibrosis-4 scores. Therefore, these scores can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies and potentially also for treatment prioritization.

High serum growth differentiation factor 15 is a risk factor for the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitisB patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs.

Patients with chronic hepatitisB (CHB) remain at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even with nucleos(t)ide analog therapy. We evaluated risk factors for HCC development, including serum hepatitisB virus (HBV) RNA, hepatitis B core-related antigen level, and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) level, a predictor of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitisC. We collected clinical data and stored serum from CHB patients without a history of HCC who were receiving nucleos(t)ide analog treatment for more than 1year and whose HBV DNA level was less than 3.0 log IU/mL. We measured the serum levels of HBV RNA and GDF15. Among 242 CHB patients, 57 had detectable HBV RNA, and GDF15 was quantified in all patients. The median GDF15 level was 0.86ng/mL. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that male sex and higher GDF15, FIB-4 index, alpha-fetoprotein and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase were independent risk factors for HCC. The presence of HBV RNA above the lower limit of quantification was not a risk factor. When we set cutoff values based on the Youden index, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in the male, AFP ≥3.0ng/mL, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase ≥22U/L, FIB-4 index≥1.93, and GDF-15≥1.17ng/mL groups. In patients with no or more than three of these five risk factors, the 10-year HCC cumulative incidence rates were 0% and 41.0%, respectively. High serum GDF15 is an independent risk factor for the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs.

Chronic hepatitis B and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: Metabolic risk factors are key drivers of hepatocellular carcinoma

ObjectiveChronic hepatitis B (CHB) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to explore the impact of baseline MASLD on the risk of HCC development in patients with CHB receiving antiviral treatment. MethodsWe consecutively recruited 535 patients with CHB who initiated antiviral treatment between January 2007 and January 2023. The exclusion criteria included coexisting HDV, HCV, or HIV infection; other chronic liver diseases; extrahepatic malignancies; prior HCC; and HCC development within one year. A baseline liver biopsy was performed in 467 patients (87 %). MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis diagnosed histologically or by imaging, combined with one cardiometabolic risk factor. The cumulative incidence of HCC and its associated factors was analyzed in patients with CHB, with and without MASLD. ResultsIn total, 535 treatment-naïve patients with CHB were included, with a median follow-up of 6.05 years. MASLD was not associated with an increased incidence of HCC in patients with CHB (HR: 1.17; 95 % CI: 0.77–1.79; p = 0.466). The cumulative incidence of HCC increased with the number of fulfilled cardiometabolic criteria (0–2 criteria vs. ≥ 3 criteria) (HR: 3.93; 95 % CI: 1.89–8.19; p < 0.001).Age (HR: 1.03, 95 % CI 1.01–1.06, p = 0.010), male sex (HR: 3.17; 95 % CI 1.34–7.53, p = 0.009), diabetes (HR: 2.81; 95 % CI 1.54–5.12, p < 0.001), and cirrhosis (HR:3.03; 95 % CI 1.57–5.5.86, p < 0.001) were independently associated with HCC development. ConclusionsIt was not MASLD, but rather the presence of multiple cardiometabolic risk factors in patients with CHB that was associated with the risk of HCC in those receiving antiviral treatment. Furthermore, older age, male sex, diabetes, and cirrhosis aggravated the risk of HCC in patients with CHB.

Benefits of Hepatitis C Viral Eradication: A Real-World Nationwide Cohort Study in Taiwan.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) increases the risk of liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This nationwide cohort study assessed the effectiveness of viral eradication of CHC. The Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort and Taiwan hepatitis C virus (HCV) registry are nationwide HCV registry cohorts incorporating data from 23 and 53 hospitals in Taiwan, respectively. This study included 27,577 individuals from these cohorts that were given a diagnosis of CHC and with data linked to the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients received either pegylated interferon and ribavirin or direct-acting antiviral agent therapy for > 4weeks for new-onset LC and liver-related events. Among the 27,577 analyzed patients, 25,461 (92.3%) achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The mean follow-up duration was 51.2 ± 48.4months, totaling 118,567 person-years. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) for incident HCC was 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.95, p = 0.052) among noncirrhotic patients without SVR compared with those with SVR and 1.82 (95% CI 1.34-2.48) among cirrhotic patients without SVR. The HR for liver-related events, including HCC and decompensated LC, was 1.70 (95% CI 1.30-2.24) among cirrhotic patients without SVR. Patients with SVR had a lower 10-year cumulative incidence of new-onset HCC than those without SVR did (21.7 vs. 38.7% in patients with LC, p < 0.001; 6.0 vs. 18.4% in patients without LC, p < 0.001). HCV eradication reduced the incidence of HCC in patients with and without LC and reduced the incidence of liver-related events in patients with LC.

Comparative analysis of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes in Asian populations with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis liver disease (MASLD): A five-year retrospective study.

78 Background: Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis Liver Disease (MASLD) represents the most up-to-date definition of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) for Asian populations, acknowledging that manifestations may differ across racial/ethnic groups. Due to metabolic and anthropometric differences, adapted criteria for MASLD have been proposed for Asian adults. This analysis aims to compare clinical outcomes between Asian patients diagnosed with MASLD and those with NAFLD. Methods: In this retrospective analysis, 48,189 Asian adults suspected of having MASLD were identified from the TriNetX global research network between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2023. An equal number of patients (48,189) diagnosed with NAFLD were matched on a 1:1 basis with MASLD patients through propensity score matching. MASLD criteria were adapted to be Asia-specific, requiring a Body Mass Index (BMI) of ≥23 along with the presence of four aspects of metabolic dysfunction. Over a 5-year follow-up period, primary outcomes of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidences were determined using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cumulative incidence curves depicted the rates of these events over time. Hazard ratios (HR) for the outcomes were calculated using Cox regression models to estimate the risk associated with MASLD. Results: Over 5 years, the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis (3.0% vs 3.0%, p=0.800) and HCC (1.3% vs 1.4%, p=0.695) were numerically lower in MASLD compared to NAFLD patients, respectively. Adjusted HRs for MASLD were: cirrhosis 1.00 (0.87-1.14) and HCC 0.86 (0.68-1.10). Conclusions: This study compared the clinical outcomes of MASLD and NAFLD in Asian populations and found no significant differences in identifying the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma between the two diagnostic criteria. However, introducing the new term and diagnostic criteria of MASLD helps reduce the stigmatization associated with NAFLD, emphasizing the central role of metabolic dysfunction in disease occurrence. Although this study did not find significant differences between MASLD and NAFLD in predicting cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, the concept of Asian-specific diagnostic criteria remains important, highlighting that disease manifestations and risk factors may vary across different races and populations, necessitating personalized prevention and treatment strategies for specific populations. Future research should further explore the similarities and differences between MASLD and NAFLD in different Asian subgroups to optimize diagnostic criteria, improve the accuracy of risk prediction, and develop targeted interventions.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Survival in Patients With Cirrhosis After Hepatitis C Virus Cure

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) declines over time after hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure by direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. Liver society guidelines recommend continuing HCC screening for these patients, but data on screening outcomes are lacking. To evaluate the association of HCC screening after HCV cure with overall survival. This cohort study evaluated patients with HCV cirrhosis who achieved DAA-induced HCV cure in the Veterans Affairs health care system between January 2014 and December 2022. Data analysis occurred from October 2023 to January 2024. The percentage of time spent up to date with recommended HCC screening was calculated by year of follow-up and during the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis (the detectable asymptomatic phase). The primary outcome was overall survival after HCC diagnosis and was compared by percentage of time spent up to date with screening using Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazards regression. Early-stage HCC at diagnosis and curative treatment were secondary outcomes assessed using logistic regression. A total of 16 902 individuals were included (median [IQR] age, 64.0 [60.5-67.4] years; 16 426 male [97.2%]), of whom 1622 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC declined from 2.4% (409 of 16 902 individuals) to 1.0% (27 of 2833 individuals) from year 1 to year 7 of follow-up. Being up to date with screening for at least 50% of time during the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis was associated with improved overall survival (log-rank test of equality over strata P = .002). In multivariate analysis, each 10% increase in follow-up spent up to date with screening was associated with a 3.2% decrease in the hazard of death (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99). There was a statistically significant interaction between time since HCV cure and screening, with no association observed among those who received a diagnosis of HCC more than 5 years after HCV cure. Each 10% of time spent up to date with screening was associated with a 10.1% increased likelihood of diagnosis with early-stage HCC (95% CI, 6.3%-14.0%) and a 6.8% increased likelihood of curative treatment (95% CI, 2.8%-11.0%). In this cohort study of persons with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved HCV cure and subsequently developed HCC, remaining up to date with screening was associated with improved overall survival, supporting the screening of eligible individuals.

Metformin and statins reduce hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis C patients with failed antiviral therapy.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who failed antiviral therapy are at increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the potential role of metformin and statins, medications for diabetes mellitus (DM) and hyperlipidemia (HLP), in reducing HCC risk among these patients. We included CHC patients from the T-COACH study who failed antiviral therapy. We tracked the onset of HCC 1.5 years post-therapy by linking to Taiwan's cancer registry data from 2003 to 2019. We accounted for death and liver transplantation as competing risks and employed Gray's cumulative incidence and Cox subdistribution hazards models to analyze HCC development. Out of 2,779 patients, 480 (17.3%) developed HCC post-therapy. DM patients not using metformin had a 51% increased risk of HCC compared to non-DM patients, while HLP patients on statins had a 50% reduced risk compared to those without HLP. The 5-year HCC incidence was significantly higher for metformin non-users (16.5%) versus non-DM patients (11.3%; adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio [aSHR]=1.51; P=0.007) and metformin users (3.1%; aSHR=1.59; P=0.022). Statin use in HLP patients correlated with a lower HCC risk (3.8%) compared to non-HLP patients (12.5%; aSHR=0.50; P<0.001). Notably, the increased HCC risk associated with non-use of metformin was primarily seen in non-cirrhotic patients, whereas statins decreased HCC risk in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients. Metformin and statins may have a chemopreventive effect against HCC in CHC patients who failed antiviral therapy. These results support the need for personalized preventive strategies in managing HCC risk.

Clinical Utility of the aMAP Score for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the aMAP score and compare it with other risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We retrospectively analyzed patients with CHB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019. Data on demographics, clinical parameters, cirrhosis status, HCC imaging, and alpha fetoprotein surveillance were collected to calculate the aMAP score (0-100) based on age, sex, albumin-bilirubin level, and platelet count. Of the 1060 patients analyzed, 789 were eligible, of whom 51 developed HCC. The cumulative HCC incidences in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups at 3, 5, and 10 years were significantly different (log-rank, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the aMAP scores for predicting HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.748, 0.777, and 0.784, respectively. Among the risk scores, the CU-HCC score had the highest AUROCs (0.823) for predicting 5-year HCC development. The aMAP score is a valuable tool for predicting HCC risk in Thai patients with CHB and can enhance surveillance strategies. However, its performance is inferior to that of the CU-HCC score, suggesting the need for new predictive tools for HCC surveillance.

A Meta-Analysis of Cumulative Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After the Fontan Operation.

Hepatic complications are increasingly recognized after the Fontan operation. The development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with high mortality when diagnosed, but its incidence and risk factors are poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the cumulative incidence of HCC after Fontan and associated risk factors. We searched PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE databases for articles reporting the cumulative incidence of HCC after Fontan operation on March 21, 2023. A single-arm random effects meta-analysis was conducted to assess cumulative incidence at 10, 20, and 30 years after Fontan. Meta-analysis of the difference of the medians was used to assess the influence of risk factors on the development of HCC. Four studies including a total of 1320 patients reported cumulative incidence. The cumulative incidence of HCC at 10, 20, and 30 years after Fontan was 0% (95% CI 0.00-0.01), 2% (0.01-0.06), and 7% (0.03-0.17) respectively. Seven studies including 6,250 patients reported overall incidence of HCC and associated risk factors. At a median 18.4 (IQR 11.9-24.9) years of follow-up, incidence of HCC was 2% (0.01-0.04). Only use of anticoagulation was associated with a lower risk of HCC (RR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.88). By 30years after Fontan, cumulative incidence of HCC is high (7%). Risk of HCC development prior to 10 years post-Fontan is low (0%), though the decision to defer HCC surveillance in this period may require future investigation based on larger studies. Screening with ultrasound every 6 months starting 20 years post-Fontan is reasonable, however, further research regarding timing, cost-effectiveness, additional risk factors associated with HCC risk, and different screening modalities is required.

The hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis: a competing risk nomogram based on a 4-year retrospective cohort study.

The study aimed to build and validate a competitive risk nomogram to predict the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis. A total of 1401 HBV-related cirrhosis patients were retrospectively enrolled from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014. Application of 20 times imputation dealt with missing data using multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE). The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1017) and a validation set (n = 384) at a ratio of 3:1. A prediction study was carried out using a competing risk model, where the event of interest was HCC and the competing events were death and liver transplantation, and subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) with 95% CIs were reported. The multivariate competing risk model was constructed and validated. There was a negligible difference between the original database and the 20 imputed datasets. At the end of follow-up, the median follow-up time was 69.9 months (interquartile range: 43.8-86.6). There were 31.5% (442/1401) of the patients who developed HCC, with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 22.9 (95%CI, 20.8%-25.2%). The univariate and multivariate competing risk regression and construction of the nomogram were performed in 20 imputed training datasets. Age, sex, antiviral therapy history, hepatitis B e antigen, alcohol drinking history, and alpha-fetoprotein levels were included in the nomogram. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve values at 12, 24, 36, 60, and 96 months were 0.68, 0.69, 0.70, 0.68, and 0.80, and the Brier scores were 0.30, 0.25, 0.23, 0.21, and 0.20 in the validation set. According to the cumulative incidence function, the nomogram effectively screened out high-risk HCC patients from low-risk patients in the presence of competing events (Fine-Gray test p < 0.001). The competitive risk nomogram was allowed to be used for predicting HCC risk in individual patients with liver cirrhosis, taking into account both the association between risk factors and HCC and the modifying effect of competition events on this association.

Interim analysis of the PARADISE study: Benefits of add-on peginterferon-α in NA-treated patients with CHB

This study aimed to investigate whether peginterferon-α (IFN) add-on nucleos(t)ide analogs(NAs) can further reduce hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) risk compared with NAs monotherapy in NA-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB). In this multi-center randomized controlled trial “PARADISE study” (NCT05671315), CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC after more than 24-week NAs pretreatment were recruited, randomized to two groups at a ratio of 1:2 and followed up for 240 weeks. NAs group maintained NAs monotherapy, while IFN + NAs group received IFN add-on NAs therapy for 48 weeks, then switched to NAs monotherapy. Totally, 196 patients were included in interim analysis (NAs group 68, IFN + NAs group 128). The 96-week cumulative HCC incidence was lower in IFN + NAs group than NAs group (0% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.05). Compared with NAs group, IFN + NAs group had significantly higher rates of HBsAg loss at week 48 and 96 (22.7% vs. 0%; 16.7% vs. 0%, both p < 0.05). A new scoring system was established to predict HBsAg decline >2log10 IU/ml, HBsAg <10 IU/ml or HBsAg loss at the end of 48-week IFN treatment. The area under ROC curve was 0.914, 0.922 or 0.905 in the original cohort (n = 128) and 0.896, 0.896 or 0.864 in the external validation cohort (n = 162) for the aforementioned three outcomes, respectively. IFN add-on NAs therapy may suggest the dual benefits of reducing HCC development and facilitating HBsAg loss among NA-treated CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC. The new scoring system helps to make the most of IFN treatment for a higher cost-effectiveness in healthcare.

Magnetic resonance elastography for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B.

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is used for the evaluation of liver fibrosis; however, it remains unclear whether MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, particularly in patients with chronic hepatitis B. A total of 504 patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving MRE were enrolled. The primary endpoint was the association between MRE-based liver stiffness and HCC. In a cross-sectional analysis at the time of MRE measurement, the median (interquartile range) liver stiffness values in patients with presence or history of HCC and those without HCC were 3.68 (2.89-4.96) and 2.60 (2.22-3.45) kPa, respectively, and liver stiffness was significantly higher in patients with presence or history of HCC than in those without HCC (P < 0.001). In a longitudinal analysis of patients without HCC, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa and those with liver stiffness <3.6 kPa were 3.8%, 7.0%, and 22.9%, and 0%, 0.9%, and 1.5%, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, MRE-based liver stiffness (per 1 kPa) or liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa was an independent factor for HCC development with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.0) or aHR of 8.22 (95% CI, 2.1-31). MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B and may be used for the early prediction of HCC development and determination of indications for treatment.

Beneficial Effects of Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu on the Occurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Compensated Chronic Hepatitis B Cirrhosis Receiving Entecavir: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.

The application of antifibrotic drugs to treat patients with chronic liver diseases who are receiving antiviral therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been established. Here, we aimed to assess the impact of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu (FZHY) on the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B virus-related compensated cirrhosis receiving the antiviral drug entecavir (ETV). A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed. Compensated liver cirrhosis patients were divided into the ETV+FZHY group or the ETV group according to treatment. The cumulative incidence of HCC was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Propensity score matching was used for confounding factors. Stratified analysis and Cox regression were used to determine the effects of FZHY on the occurrence of HCC and liver function decompensation. Out of 910 chronic hepatitis B patients, 458 were in the ETV+FZHY group and 452 were in the ETV group. After propensity score matching, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 9.8% in the ETV+FZHY group and 21.8% in the ETV group (p<0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio for HCC was 0.216 (0.108, 0.432) when FZHY treatment was >36 months. Age, diabetes, alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, hepatitis B e-antigen, and fibrosis 4 score were associated with the occurrence of HCC. FZHY decreased the risk of HCC in patients aged >45 years with a hepatitis B virus DNA level of ≥2,000 IU/l. Adjunctive FZHY treatment reduced HCC occurrence in patients with hepatitis B virus cirrhosis who were treated with ETV, possibly due to the antifibrotic properties of FZHY.

Chinese herbal medicine decreases incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in diabetes mellitus patients with regular insulin management.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), while insulin is a potent mitogen. Identifying a new therapeutic modality for preventing insulin users from developing HCC is a critical goal for researchers. To investigate whether regular herbal medicine use can decrease HCC risk in DM patients with regular insulin control. We used data acquired from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance research database between 2000 and 2017. We identified patients with DM who were prescribed insulin for > 3 months. The herb user group was further defined as patients prescribed herbal medication for DM for > 3 months per annum during follow-up. We matched the herb users to nonusers at a 1:3 ratio according to age, sex, comorbidities and index year by propensity score matching. We analyzed HCC incidence, HCC survival rates, and the herbal prescriptions involved. We initially enrolled 657144 DM patients with regular insulin use from 2000 to 2017. Among these, 46849 patients had used a herbal treatment for DM, and 140547 patients were included as the matched control group. The baseline variables were similar between the herb users and nonusers. DM patients with regular herb use had a 12% decreased risk of HCC compared with the control group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.80-0.97]. The cumulative incidence of HCC in the herb users was significantly lower than that of the nonusers. Patients with a herb use of > 5 years cumulatively exhibited a protective effect against development of HCC (aHR = 0.82, P < 0.05). Of patients who developed HCC, herb users exhibited a longer survival time than nonusers (aHR = 0.78, P = 0.0001). Additionally, we report the top 10 herbs and formulas in prescriptions and summarize the potential pharmacological effects of the constituents. Our analysis indicated that Astragalus propinquus (Huang Qi) plus Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge (Dan Shen), and Astragalus propinquus (Huang Qi) plus Trichosanthes kirilowii Maxim. (Tian Hua Fen) were the most frequent combination of single herbs. Meanwhile, Ji Sheng Shen Qi Wan plus Dan Shen was the most frequent combination of herbs and formulas. This large-scale retrospective cohort study reveals that herbal medicine may decrease HCC risk by 12% in DM patients with regular insulin use.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease increases hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: The combined effect of hepatitis B virus infection and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains unclear. The current study sought to elucidate the impact of MASLD on HCC progression in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Method: This retrospective cohort study included CHB patients who had undergone liver biopsy and abdominal imaging at the Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine between 2013 and 2019. We investigated the correlation between MASLD and HCC risk, and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for patient characteristics. Results: A total of 1,613 patients were included, and 483 (29.9%) were diagnosed with MASLD. Over a median follow-up period of 5.02 years, 36 (2.2%) developed HCC, comprising 4.8% (23/483) of those with MASLD and 1.2% (13/1,130) of those without. Those with MASLD had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of HCC than those without (p < 0.001). The presence of MASLD was associated with a higher risk of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 3.996; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.007-7.959; p < 0.001). After adjustment using IPTW, the patients with MASLD retained a higher cumulative incidence of HCC (p < 0.001). Moreover, MASLD was found to be an independent risk factor for the development of HCC (adjusted HR, 10.191; 95% CI, 4.327-24.002; p < 0.001). However, among patients with MASLD, there were no significant differences in the cumulative risk of HCC between patients with and without overweight, between those with <2 and ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs), between those with <3 and ≥3 CMRFs, or between those with <4 and ≥4 CMRFs (p = 0.110, p = 0.087, p = 0.066, and p = 0.490, respectively). Conclusion: The presence of MASLD is associated with a higher risk of HCC in patients with CHB. Notably, this higher risk is present in patients with MASLD, irrespective of the presence or absence of overweight or the number of CMRFs they have.

Direct-acting antivirals failed to reduce the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus associated cirrhosis: A real-world study.

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) revolutionized the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated disease achieving high rates of sustained virological response (SVR). However, whether DAAs can reduce the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis who are at high risk have not been concluded. To investigate the effect of DAAs on the occurrence of HCC in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis after achieving SVR. Of 427 inpatients with HCV-associated cirrhosis were enrolled in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from January 2014 to April 2020. 118 patients weren't received antiviral treatment with any reasons named non-antiviral treatment group, and 236 patients obtained from the 309 DAAs treatment patients according to the propensity score matching named DAAs treatment group. Demographic information and laboratory data were collected from baseline and the following up. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-Rank test were used to compare the incidence and cumulative incidence of HCC between the two groups. Cox proportional risk regression was used to re-evaluate the risk factors for HCC. HCC incidence was 4.68/100PY (95%CI, 3.09-6.81) in the DAAs treatment group, while it was 3.00/100PY (95%CI, 1.50-5.37) in the non-antiviral treatment group, and the relative risk was 1.82 (95%CI, 0.93-3.53, P > 0.05). The incidence of HCC at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 3.39%, 6.36%, 8.47% and 10.17% in the DAAs treatment group, and it was 0%, 0%, 3.39% and 9.32% in the non-antiviral treatment group, respectively. Age > 58 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.089; 95%CI, 1.033-1.147; P = 0.002] and liver stiffness measurement > 27.85 kPa (HR = 1.043; 95%CI, 1.022-1.065; P = 0.000) were risk factors for HCC in all patients (n = 427), and DAAs treatment didn't show protective efficacy. DAAs treatment seems failed to reduce the incidence of HCC occurrence in HCV-associated cirrhosis in 48 months, and even increased the incidence of HCC in 36 months.

Evaluation of patients treated with direct-acting anti-viral therapy for chronic hepatitis C and their risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hong Kong

Background & aimTo evaluate the risk of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Hong Kong, as it has not been studied before in this locality.MethodsThree hundred thirty-three consecutive chronic hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs from two hospitals over the past 6 years were identified. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate cumulative HCC incidence. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with HCC development.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 23.4 months after DAA started, 15 (5.4%, 95% CI 3.3–8.7%) out of 279 total included patients developed HCC. The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 98.9%. The 1-year cumulative incidence for de-novo HCC and HCC recurrence were 0.8 and 30.9%, respectively (log-rank test p < 0.001). The 1-year cumulative HCC incidence for patients without and with cirrhosis were 0.7 and 5.1%, respectively (log-rank test p = 0.036). Univariate analysis showed that significant factors associated with HCC after DAA were: history of treated HCC, cirrhosis, evidence of portal hypertension, higher AFP at the start or end of DAA therapy, higher bilirubin, lower platelets, lower albumin, and older age. From receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off level of AFP for predicting HCC was 10.5 ng/mL at the start and 5.6 ng/mL at the end of DAA therapy.ConclusionsThe risk of early HCC recurrence remains high despite achieving SVR following DAA therapy, whereas the risk of early de-novo HCC occurence is low. AFP levels, both at the start and end of DAA therapy, can be useful in stratifying risks of HCC development.

Serum Angiopoietin-2 Levels Predict the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma following Hepatitis C Virus Eradication Using Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents

Plain Language SummaryOur previous studies showed that serum angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) and C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) levels predicted improvement in liver fibrosis following sustained virological response (SVR) of hepatitis C virus (HCV) obtained with administration of with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). These levels were evaluated retrospectively as predictive indicators of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development following SVR. We enrolled individuals from a historical cohort of 89 chronic HCV patients without history of HCC at baseline with SVR following DAA therapy and had baseline serum levels of Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer ≥2.0 C.O.I. Multivariate analyses of patients revealed that only the Ang-2 level at 24 weeks following the end of treatment (EOT24W) was significantly related to HCC development (hazard ratio 2.27; p = 0.003). This result was reproduced in individuals with advanced liver fibrosis (M2BPGi level ≥3.3 C.O.I. at baseline). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analyses for the future risk of developing HCC within 5 years of follow-up (5y-HCC) showed the best cut-off Ang-2 level at EOT24W was 2,780 pg/mL, and significantly stratified the cumulative incidence of HCC (≥2,780 vs. < 2,780 pg/mL, 5y-HCC: 45.5 vs. 8.2%, p < 0.001). The serum Ang-2 level at EOT24W is a feasible predictor of HCC development after achieving SVR to DAAs therapy.

Comparing the Risk of Poor Outcomes Among Hepatitis C–Infected, Cured, and Never-Infected Controls

Studies show decreased rates of poor outcomes after hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure. However, there are no data comparing risk of poor outcomes to that of HCV never infected; results that could have implications for those who may not need ongoing specialty follow-up after cure. Retrospective cohort study conducted among Kaiser Permanente Northern California adults ages 18 and up between 2002 and 2019. Three cohorts were identified: 1) chronic HCV, 2) HCV cured, and 3) every chronic HCV and HCV-cured individual was matched by age, sex and race-ethnicity to 3 HCV negative controls. Outcomes of interest were cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and all-cause mortality. A low-risk group of HCV cured individuals without significant liver disease and/or concomitant liver disease cofactor(s) were identified. We identified 21,184 chronic HCV, 11,950 HCV cure, and 99,402 control individuals. Five-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC and all-cause mortality was 10% vs 3.6% vs 0.8%, 12% vs 2.6% vs 0.6%, 3.9% vs 1.6% vs 0.07%, and 14% vs 2.8% vs 2.2% for chronic HCV, HCV cure, and control individuals, respectively (log-rank P < .01 for all). Compared to controls, HCV cured low-risk individuals had numerically similar 5-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC and all-cause mortality (1.2% vs 0.8%, P < .01; 0.9% vs 0.6%, P < .01; 0.5% vs 0.1%, P < .01; 1.7% vs 2.2%, P < .01). HCV cure provides significant health benefits but does not universally return risk of poor outcomes to that of the general population. A simple stratification at the time of HCV cure could identify low-risk individuals who can potentially be discharged from specialty clinics/HCC surveillance.