Cumulative Emissions Reduction Research Articles

The role of renewable energy in achieving Turkey's INDC

The aim of this study is to analyse impacts of renewable energy sources in achieving Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets of Turkey. INDCs as a part the Paris Agreement are based on national circumstances of countries on climate change. In order to reach the global goal of the Paris Agreement, countries shall monitor, update and upgrade their INDCs. The overall target of Turkish INDC is to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 21 per cent from the Business as Usual (BaU) level by 2030. In this study, three scenarios are developed namely Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC. These scenarios are used to analyse impacts of utilization of renewable energy on INDC target of Turkey. It is projected that Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC can reduce cumulative 566, 511 and 428 million tons of CO2 emissions respectively. These mitigation amounts could correspondingly provide 32, 29 and 24 per cent of the cumulative emission reduction targets in Turkey's INDC. Total additional costs of Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC scenarios are estimated as 12.52, 11.80 and 10.73 billion USD for the period of 2018–2030. Average unit costs of emissions reduction vary between 6.36 and 61.13 USD per reduced ton of CO2 emissions. In order to guarantee INDC target, Turkey should set new renewable energy targets for the INDC period.

Electricity system and emission impact of direct and indirect electrification of heavy-duty transportation

Widespread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in the heavy-duty transportation sector could significantly mitigate carbon emissions of this important sector. However, the extent of emission reductions and their feasibility will depend on the carbon intensity of the electricity system, alternative fuel vehicle technologies and vehicle charging profiles. Utilizing a capacity expansion and dispatch model, this study compares alternative pathways for decarbonizing the electricity and heavy duty transportation sector to 2060. Scenarios with battery electric vehicles, with three alternative charging profiles, and fuel cell vehicles are compared with 0 and 150 $/tCO2 carbon taxes. Results show that adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in the absence of carbon taxes leads to, in the best case, cumulative emission reductions of 3% relative to a reference scenario due to the reliance on natural gas generation. In scenarios with a tax of 150$/tCO2e, results show that adoption of fuel cell vehicles achieves the highest emission reduction of all studied scenarios with cumulative reductions of 43% from the reference scenario and the lowest carbon abatement cost, at 15.2 $/tCO2e. The flexibility of electrolysers allows low cost renewable energy to be stored as hydrogen thereby avoiding investment in higher cost and higher emitting technologies.

Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique

Mozambique is rapidly emerging as one of the leading energy producers in Africa. We develop a comprehensive scenario analysis to review the energy revolution in Mozambique. Like much of Africa, Mozambique features a competition between development of its vast reserves of renewable energy and fossil fuels. We assess the implied energy and emissions transitions as well as the potential impact of a range of sustainable policy options. Our analysis reveals an emerging ‘energy dichotomy’, where a spectacular expansion of energy production goes together with an only gradual energy consumption transition. We find that over time the share of modern renewable energy sources tends to marginalize in the energy production mix while remaining stable in the energy consumption mix. About one-third of the GHG emissions associated with energy production can be linked to energy export. Also, we find that sustainable energy policies at the supply side lead to far higher cumulative emission reductions than demand-side policies. Finally, we show that even in the long run, a complete ban on thermal electricity generation capacity in Mozambique would by no means lead to shortages in the domestic electricity market but only slightly limit potential electricity export.

Potential impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy

This paper examines the impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy. The GTAP-E model has been extended to allocate the subsidy directly to each eligible sector. The simulation of the subsidy policy has been supplemented by introducing an improvement of energy efficiency to non-agricultural sectors and of resource efficiency by using endowment factors in the agricultural sector. Results indicate that, with the current budget of A$2.55 billion, or US$1.86 billion (Scenario 1), Australia can only achieve the minimum cumulative emissions reduction target of 225 MtCO2-e during 2015–20. Australia needs a budget of US$2.08 billion (Scenario 2) to achieve the maximum cumulative emissions reduction target of 279 MtCO2-e. In both scenarios, the agricultural sector receives the highest payment from the Australian Federal Government under the subsidy programme, followed by the electricity generation sector. Under the scheme, Australia experiences only a mild contraction in the economy, with a reduction of real GDP by 0.37% and 0.55% in the two scenarios, respectively.

Low-carbon technology diffusion in the decarbonization of the power sector: Policy implications

The Chinese power sector faces a significant challenge in attempting to mitigate its CO2 emissions while meeting its fast-growing demand for electricity. To address this challenge, an analytical framework is proposed that incorporates technological learning curves in a technology optimization model. The framework is employed to evaluate the technology trajectories, resource utilization and economic impacts in the power sector of Tianjin in 2005–2050. Using multi-scenario analysis, this study reveals that CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced if relevant mitigation policies are introduced. The main technologies adopted are ultra-super-critical combustion, integrated gasification combined cycle, wind power, hydropower, biomass power, solar photovoltaic power and solar thermal power. Despite uncertainties, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage technology could be cost competitive in the future. The CO2 emissions cap policy has the advantage of realizing an explicit goal in the target year, while the renewable energy policy contributes to more cumulative CO2 emissions reduction and coal savings. A carbon tax of 320 CNY/ton CO2 would contribute to early renewable energy development and more CO2 reduction in the short run. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the impacts on the power system of learning rates, technology cost reductions and energy fuel price trajectories.

Modeling the carbon budget of the Australian electricity sector's transition to renewable energy

Abstract We report on the carbon footprint of 22 scenario pathways for the transition of the Australian electricity sector to predominantly renewable energy (RE). The analysis employs a dynamic and discrete numerical model that takes into account what we have termed renewable energy ‘breeding’, i.e. RE technologies are being made increasingly with renewable electricity as the transition progresses. Our results show that every scenario under investigation fails to achieve the sector's share of Australia's national carbon budget for a 1.5 °C global warming limit and around one-third fail the 2 °C target by 2050. In most of the scenarios considered, the reduction in annual life-cycle CO2e emissions in the year 2050, from taking into account the effect of RE breeding, was substantial, in some cases reducing annual emissions by more than 90%. But, the reduction in cumulative CO2e emissions resulting from RE breeding only became significant post-2040. Unless a very rapid transition is made to more than 80% renewable electricity in Australia well before mid-century, any positive ‘breeding’ effect is simply dwarfed by fossil-fuel derived emissions prior to and during the actual transition. Therefore, early, decisive, wide-scale deployment of a suitable mix of RE technologies is needed to reduce cumulative emissions.

Life‐cycle assessment of torrefied coppice willow co‐firing with lignite coal in an existing pulverized coal boiler

AbstractCoal‐fired electricity generation is a major emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Canada and the Federal Government has taken steps toward mandated reduction in GHG emissions. One pathway to reduced emissions is via co‐firing of coal with short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow grown on marginal land in Saskatchewan. This study uses a life‐cycle inventory model to investigate the GHG emissions from nine scenarios for electricity generation with willow pellets at a retrofitted generating station in Saskatchewan. Torrefied and non‐torrefied willow pellets from SRC plantations in the Prairie and Boreal Plains ecozones are considered. Direct co‐firing of pellets and indirect co‐firing via a circulating fluidized bed gasifier are modeled. The model output shows cumulative, levelized, and disaggregated GHG emissions. The scenarios account for the plantation establishment period required to reach a co‐firing ratio of 40% by energy input. Torrefied and non‐torrefied willow pellets grown in the Prairie ecozone indirectly co‐fired with lignite coal result in 43% and 47% net cumulative GHG emissions reduction compared to the existing coal fired pathway. Direct co‐firing of the same feedstocks results in a 34% and 31% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively. The biomass‐based portion of all scenarios was found to produce negative net cumulative GHG emissions on a life‐cycle basis with willow grown in the Prairies ecozone (i.e., GHG emissions from the willow plantation to the combustion of the pellet with coal). Co‐firing is therefore a viable option for reducing GHG emissions from electricity generation. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 with abatement potentials and costs

Abstract. This study uses the GAINS model framework to estimate current and future emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases), their abatement potentials, and costs for twenty source sectors and 162 countries and regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global F-gas (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) emissions are estimated at 0.7 Pg CO2 eq. in 2005 with an expected increase to 3.7 Pg CO2 eq. in 2050 if application of control technology remains at the current level. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions using existing technology and alternative substances with low global warming potential. Estimates show that it would be technically feasible to reduce cumulative F-gas emissions from 81 to 11 Pg CO2 eq. between 2018 and 2050. A reduction in cumulative emissions to 23 Pg CO2 eq. is estimated to be possible at a marginal abatement cost below 10 EUR t−1 CO2 eq. We also find that future F-gas abatement is expected to become relatively more costly for developing than developed countries due to differences in the sector contribution to emissions and abatement potentials.

Effect of urban symbiosis development in China on GHG emissions reduction

This paper analyzes current urban symbiosis development and application in China, and then conducts a statistical analysis of the emissions reduction of CO2 and CH4 in relation to recovery of iron and steel scraps, waste paper, and waste plastics from 2011 to 2014 using the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory calculation method provided by the IPCC. Results indicate that the cumulative recovery of renewable resources during China's main urban symbiosis development in 2011–2014 was 803.275 Mt, and the amount of iron and steel scraps, waste paper, and waste plastic recovery was the largest, respectively accounting for 62.2%, 18.0%, and 8.2% of total recovery in 2014. In addition, the cumulative emissions reduction of GHGs in relation to recovery of iron and steel scraps, waste paper, and waste plastics in 2011–2014 was 27.962 Mt CO2-eq, 954.695 Mt CO2-eq, and 22.502 Mt CO2-eq, respectively, thereby totaling 1005.159 Mt CO2-eq. Results show a remarkable GHG emissions reduction during 2011–2014.

Inventory and Policy Reduction Potential of Greenhouse Gas and Pollutant Emissions of Road Transportation Industry in China

In recent years, emissions from the road transportation industry in China have been increasing rapidly. To evaluate the reduction potential of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions of the industry in China, its emission inventory was calculated and scenario analysis was created for the period between 2012 and 2030 in this paper. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, the development of China’s road transportation industry in two scenarios (the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the comprehensive-mitigation (CM) scenario) was simulated. In the Comprehensive Mitigation scenario, there are nine various measures which include Fuel Economy Standards, Auto Emission Standards, Energy-saving Technology, Tax Policy, Eco-driving, Logistics Informatization, Vehicle Liquidation, Electric Vehicles, and Alternative Fuels. The cumulative energy and emission reductions of these specific measures were evaluated. Our results demonstrate that China’s road transportation produced 881 million metric tons of CO2 and emitted 1420 thousand tons of CO, 2150 thousand tons of NOx, 148 thousand tons of PM10, and 745 thousand tons of HC in 2012. The reduction potential is quite large, and road freight transportation is the key mitigation subsector, accounting for 85%–92% of the total emission. For energy conservation and carbon emission mitigation, logistics informatization is the most effective method, potentially reducing 1.80 billion tons of coal equivalent and 3.83 billion tons of CO2 from 2012 to 2030. In terms of air pollutant emission mitigation, the auto emission standards measure performs best with respect to NOx, PM10, and HC emission mitigation, and logistic informatization measure is the best in CO emission reduction. In order to maximize the mitigation potential of China’s road transportation industry, the government needs to implement various measures in a timely and strict fashion.

Key factors influencing the global passenger transport dynamics using the AIM/transport model

A bottom-up passenger transport model named AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model)/Transport model is developed by incorporating behavioral parameters and transportation technological details. This model is based on discrete based choice modelling covering 17 global regions soft-linked with the AIM/CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In this paper, the model is used to assess the impact of various factors like travel time, energy efficiency improvement, load factor, mode preference along with environmental awareness factors on transport demand, energy and emissions. The modelling assessment results show that travel speed and land-use patterns have significant impact on the travel demand. High occupancy rate and shift towards the mass-transit system result in energy and emissions reduction. Implementation of carbon tax aligned with the two-degree target results in a 22% cumulative emission reduction from 2005 to 2100 relative to the baseline case. However, the reduction potential can be increased to 42% by combining behavioral and technology related mitigation options like mass-transit system speed improvement, transit oriented development, efficiency improvement, preference towards eco-friendly technologies and high vehicle occupancy.

Greenhouse gas emission effect of suspending slash pile burning in Ontario's managed forests

Ontario has made a commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15, 37, and 80% below 1990 levels by 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. Ontario's forest managers can contribute to meeting these targets by implementing changes to forestry practices that either reduce emissions from operations or increase carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems and harvested wood products. We present an analysis of the effects on GHG emissions resulting from suspending the current management practice of slash pile burning (burning harvest residue in the forest without energy recovery). The analysis was performed for each of Ontario's forest management units (FMU) with assumed suspension of slash pile burning for four different periods: 2016–2025, 2016–2050, 2016–2075, and 2016–2100. Annual and cumulative avoided emissions from suspending slash pile burning that would have occurred with current practices were estimated from planned harvest volume and area adjusted to reflect harvesting levels from 1990 to 2009, data on slash pile burning from 2008 to 2013, and emission factors for combustion and decay of wood estimated from the literature. Suspending slash pile burning was estimated to reduce GHG emissions by year 2100 in all four no-burn scenarios, with cumulative GHG emission reductions estimated at -0.7, -4.5, -14.1, and -33.4 Mt CO2eq (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent), respectively. At the same time, suspending slash pile burning for the above-listed four periods resulted in losses of forest area by 2100 estimated at 7200, 24000, 40800, and 57800, respectively. The accuracy of these projections is affected by uncertainty in estimates of several components of the analysis, of which the primary one is the historical rate of slash pile burning. Improvement in measuring and reporting procedures is needed to obtain more reliable estimates of the amount of slash burned.

Ability of split urea applications to reduce nitrous oxide emissions: A laboratory incubation experiment

Although split fertilizer applications have been suggested as a logical strategy to reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by decreasing soil nitrate concentrations, their efficacy remains unclear. A laboratory incubation experiment was performed to determine the effect of split fertilization vs. single fertilization on N2O emissions. The split urea application reduced the peak N2O emissions during the incubation period, and the cumulative N2O emissions were significantly reduced by 28% compared with the single fertilization, although these emissions were influenced by the N fertilizer rate and soil moisture. A higher percentage reduction in cumulative N2O emissions under the split fertilization occurred at the low (45%) compared with the high fertilizer rate (15%). At the low fertilizer rate (200N), the split fertilization resulted in a significantly greater reduction in N2O emissions under the dry soil moisture regime (53%) compared with the wet soil moisture condition (37%). In addition, the split fertilization reduced the cumulative CO2 emissions by 9% compared with the single fertilization. Therefore, our laboratory results suggest that the split fertilization strategy appears to be a useful method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an irrigated agriculture ecosystem.

One Man's Meat … 2050? Ruminations on Future Meat Demand in the Context of Global Warming

AbstractThis Address considers a range of issues relating to the contribution of meat consumption and livestock production to global warming, given the need highlighted by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to reduce global GHG emissions by over 50% by 2050. The IPCC Climate Change 2014 report recognised that demand oriented measures may also contribute to GHG mitigation. The paper reviews a number of studies which examine demand‐led mitigation potentials, and concludes that such estimates ignore the market effects of changes in meat consumption habits or demand oriented policies. A simple partial equilibrium model of beef, poultry, pig and ovine meats is developed for the major regions of the world to explore the impact of a range of scenarios which might reduce meat consumption and GHG emissions. These include emissions taxation, long‐term trends in reduction of red meat consumption in developed economy regions, and supply side improvements in livestock emissions intensities. The paper discusses problems associated with many published demand elasticities suitable for incorporation into a market model, problems of selection from widely varying published estimates and their appropriateness for longer‐run projections. The dearth of published supply elasticity estimates is also highlighted. The modelling concludes that economic and population growth to 2050 without any mitigation measures will lead to a 21% increase in per capita meat consumption and a 63% increase in total consumption and GHG emissions by 2050. However, the mitigation projections from the scenarios explored only generate a 14% reduction in cumulative emissions from the baseline 2050 projections, insufficient to meet the CCC target.

Energy and emissions saving potential of additive manufacturing: the case of lightweight aircraft components

Additive manufacturing (AM) holds great potential for improving materials efficiency, reducing life-cycle impacts, and enabling greater engineering functionality compared to conventional manufacturing (CM), and AM has been increasingly adopted by aircraft component manufacturers for lightweight, cost-effective designs. This study estimates the net changes in life-cycle primary energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with AM technologies for lightweight metallic aircraft components through the year 2050, to shed light on the environmental benefits of a shift from CM to AM processes in the U.S. aircraft industry. A systems modeling framework is presented, with integrates engineering criteria, life-cycle environmental data, aircraft fleet stock and fuel use models under different AM adoption scenarios. Estimated fleet-wide life-cycle primary energy savings at most reach 70-173 million GJ/year in 2050, with cumulative savings of 1.2–2.8 billion GJ. Associated cumulative GHG emission reductions were estimated at 92.1–215.0 million metric tons. In addition, thousands of tons of aluminum, titanium and nickel alloys could be potentially saved per year in 2050. The results indicate a significant role of AM technologies in helping society meet its long-term energy use and GHG emissions reduction goals, and highlight barriers and opportunities for AM adoption for the aircraft industry.

Comparison of large scale solar PV (photovoltaic) and nuclear power plant investments in an emerging market

We examine and compare economic feasibilities and environmental effects of two energy investments options in Turkey: a NE-PP (nuclear power plant) in Mersin province on the Mediterranean coast and a large scale photovoltaic solar energy power plant (PV-PP) to be built in a governmentally reserved land area in mid-south Anatolia, namely Karapinar Energy Specialized Industrial Zone (Karapinar-ESIZ). Total installed power of both plants is taken to be 4800 MW, which is the contracted value for the four units of NE-PP. In terms of investments and energy outputs, both options have their respective advantages and disadvantages over the other. While PV-PP is cheaper without land cost, NE-PP produces quite more electricity throughout its lifetime. Applying a tool to calculate the emission factor for an electricity system (taken from UNFCCC), although NE-PP has more cumulative CO2 emission reduction potential than PV-PP, PV-PP seems slightly more advantageous in terms of CO2 reduction per unit of produced electricity. PV-PP needs more land area than NE-PP; however, it requires considerably less time for commissioning and decommissioning. The outcomes of the study notably reveal that the NE-PP has a payback only if inflation rate is taken into consideration in the unit electricity price, while PV-PP pays back with and without inflation rate.

Sectoral co-control of air pollutants: case of a chlor-alkali/polyvinyl chloride sector in China

Taking coordinated control measures is widely considered as a way to reduce multiple emissions simultaneously. In China, the chlor-alkali/polyvinyl chloride sector is facing great pressure to mitigate air emissions including greenhouse gases. This work presents a set of assessment methods to assess the co-control effects of optional reduction measures on SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions systematically. These methods include co-control effect coordination system, pollutant reduction cross-elasticity, and unit pollutant abatement cost. A marginal abatement cost curve of single pollutant is constructed to determine technological alternatives that can reduce emission. Results of co-control effect coordination system and pollutant reduction cross-elasticity show that most renewable energy sources, process retrofitting, chemical recovery, as well as energy system optimization measures have good co-control effect. Unit pollutant abatement cost analysis further showed that process retrofitting, chemical recovery, as well as energy-saving measures are superior to renewable energy sources and end-of-pipe measures. Reduction potential analysis of measures is presented using marginal abatement cost curves. The cumulative emission reductions of SO2, NOx, and CO2 are 87,926.0 tons/yr, 49,998.4 tons/yr, and 11.9 × 106 tons/yr, respectively.

Energy-led domestic retrofit: impact of the intervention sequence

Interviews conducted with householders reveal that energy efficiency is often a lesser motivation than other factors for undertaking home improvement work. Homeowners’ approach to refurbishment is typically staged over several years, not as a whole-house retrofit. As the operational performance of an individual emission-reducing technology typically depends on what other measures are already in place, the retrofit intervention sequence can potentially affect the overall performance of the dwelling. The impact of the intervention sequence on a semi-detached 1930s' house is investigated with dynamic thermal modelling, using five sequences based on different homeowner personas developed from qualitative interviews. The results show that whilst a whole-house retrofit would reduce cumulative CO2 emissions over 25 years by 54%, the sequences actually implemented by the individual households result in significantly smaller reductions of between 42% and 24%. This variation in operational performance due to the intervention sequence means that there is a variable return on the investment for a particular technology and, significantly, that different sequences will yield different cumulative emission reductions. This has significant consequences for policies providing financial incentives for energy-led retrofit, particularly to include the intervention sequence and timing.

2050년 저탄소 사회로의 전환을 위한 경제성장, 산업구조, 효율개선, 전력 탈탄소화와 연료 대체의 효과

This paper analyzed transition pathways toward a low carbon society in Korea to meet global climate target. Lower economic growth, industrial structure change, enhance of energy demand management, decarbonization of power sector, and replacement of low carbon fuel could reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from fuel combustion in 2050 by 67% against in 2011, or by 74% against in BAU (Business-As-Usual). Lower economic growth contributes to 13% of cumulative emission reduction relative to BAU, industrial structure change 9%, enhance of energy demand management 72%, decarbonization of power sector 5% and replacement of low carbon fuel 1% respectively. Final energy consumption in 2050 needs to be reduced to 50% relative to 2011, or to 41% relative to BAU. Nuclear, coal and renewable energy represent 31%, 40%, 2% respectively among electricity generation in 2011, but 38%, 2%, 32% in 2050. CCS represents 23% of total generation in 2050. Emission intensity of electricity in 2050 was decreased to 19% relative to 2011, or to 24% relative to BAU. Primary energy in 2050 was decreased to 64% compared to 2011, or to 44% compared to BAU. Final energy consumption, primary energy supply and GHG emission from fuel combustion from 1990 to 2011 increased by 176%, 197%, 146%. Radical change from historical trend is required to transit toward a low carbon society by 2050. Appropriate economic growth, structural change to non-energy intensive industries, energy technology research, development and deployment (RD&D) in terms of enhancement of energy efficiency and low carbon energy supply technologies, and fuel change to electricity and renewable energy are key instruments.

Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.