Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 with abatement potentials and costs

Pallav Purohit,Lena Höglund-Isaksson

doi:10.5194/acp-17-2795-2017

Pallav Purohit, Lena Höglund-Isaksson

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2795-2017

Copy DOI

Abstract

Abstract. This study uses the GAINS model framework to estimate current and future emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases), their abatement potentials, and costs for twenty source sectors and 162 countries and regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global F-gas (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) emissions are estimated at 0.7 Pg CO2 eq. in 2005 with an expected increase to 3.7 Pg CO2 eq. in 2050 if application of control technology remains at the current level. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions using existing technology and alternative substances with low global warming potential. Estimates show that it would be technically feasible to reduce cumulative F-gas emissions from 81 to 11 Pg CO2 eq. between 2018 and 2050. A reduction in cumulative emissions to 23 Pg CO2 eq. is estimated to be possible at a marginal abatement cost below 10 EUR t−1 CO2 eq. We also find that future F-gas abatement is expected to become relatively more costly for developing than developed countries due to differences in the sector contribution to emissions and abatement potentials.

Highlights

Fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) contribute approximately 2 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2014)
Using the framework of the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we estimate in 5-year intervals for 2005 to 2050 global emissions and abatement potentials of the F-gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)), which are addressed under the Kyoto Protocol (KP) (UNFCCC, 2014)
To account for the full global warming effect of the combined use of HFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants, and considering that they are close substitutes with strong global warming potentials (GWPs), we keep track of and display baseline HCFC emissions in parallel to HFC emissions, even though HCFCs are not a target for future abatement efforts since they are addressed as ozonedepleting substances (ODSs) that are subject to phase-out under the Montreal Protocol (MP) (UNEP, 2007)

Summary

Introduction

Fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) contribute approximately 2 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2014). Using the framework of the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at), we estimate in 5-year intervals for 2005 to 2050 global emissions and abatement potentials of the F-gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)), which are addressed under the Kyoto Protocol (KP) (UNFCCC, 2014). To account for the full global warming effect of the combined use of HFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants, and considering that they are close substitutes with strong GWPs, we keep track of and display baseline HCFC emissions in parallel to HFC emissions, even though HCFCs are not a target for future abatement efforts since they are addressed as ozonedepleting substances (ODSs) that are subject to phase-out under the Montreal Protocol (MP) (UNEP, 2007). We point out major sources of uncertainty and highlight critical gaps in knowledge

Methods

Results

Conclusion