In the Tohoku district, the cooler region in Japan, the cultivatable period of rice plants is shorter, and moreover, the extremely cool weathers have often occured during the important growth periods. Therefore, these periods are necessary to fit climatically in safe time. Such agro-climatological studies for estimating the rice cultivation period have recently developed in Japan and the methods which set the heading to a center of the plan have been established. In earlier studies the earliest and the latest dates of the safe cultivation period were established on the basis of seasonal variation curve of air temperature or of accumulated air temperature usually by the critical temperature free from cool damage, but they have not discussed the products from the quantitative point of view. Therefore, it was difficult to estimate physiologically of economically the most suitable cultivation period considering the management of a farm. For the purpose of settling this difficulties, it is necessary to elucidate the relationships between the changes of climatic conditions and of yield, corresponding to the movement of the important growth periods.The Authors have found the method for estimating the course of yield index corresponding to the heading by the application of such assumptive decreasing scales of rice yield based on low air temperature at the important periods as Fig. 1. These scales were proposed by Abe et al. (1964) in connection with the study (1960-1961) for estimating the damage by cool weather conditions on rice production.If the decreasing rates of yields by low temperature at three important periods of rice plants such as the reduction division period, the heading and ripening periods in case of heading on the date i in the year j, are designated by (R1)ij, (R2)ij and (R3)ij respectively, the yield index Yij will be as follows.Yij=100(1-(R1)ij)(1-(R2)ij)(1-(R3)ij)(1)The mean yield index for n years on a specific date i, Yi will be writtenYi=∑nj=1Yij/n (2)From Eqs. (1) and (2), yield index in case of heading on a spontaneous date can be calculated and consequently, the course of yield indexes is drawn in Fig. 2. For instance, the yield indexes and their course calculated from daily air temperature from 1937 to 1963 at the Fujisaka Farm are shown in Fig. 2 and Table 1.Taking the scale of a farm and working efficiency into consideration, if Yp is the planned level of yield index per unit area, the heading period obtaining products more than Yp is the term between Hc and Hl, the crossings of the curve of yield index to Yp-line, as shown in Fig. 3. But the heading time is apt to delay by the low temperature before them. Therefore, when the number of days of probable lateness, Ll is calculated by the other method, the date Hp, Ll days before Hl is obtained as the planning latest heading date, and the period from Hc to Hp, Lp is obtained as the planning safe heading period.
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