Crystal Ball Software Research Articles

Investigating the concentration and health risk assessment of bioaerosols in the surgery centers and hospital operating rooms of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences

Introduction: Due to the special conditions in operating rooms, infection control is important to maintain health. So, the aim of this study was to survey of air exchange rate/changes per hour (ACH) and health risk assessment of bioaerosols in the surgery center or hospital operating rooms. Materials and Methods: The results of measuring of bioaerosols by pollution measurement companies were used, in 1401. In 1402, 10 operating rooms were randomly selected and the reliability of the results was examined for these two years. Sampling and analysis of the samples was provided based on the NIOSH 0800 method and ACH were measured by a anemometer. The relationship between the number of bioaerosols and ACH, and also, the reliability between results were calculated with the PCC and the ICC test, respectively, in SPSS-V22 software. The health risk assessment and the probability of risk were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, in Crystal Ball software. Results: Among 62 operating rooms, the average number of bacterial and fungal colonies was 69.73±14.59 CFU/m3 and 21.67±4.52 CFU/m3, respectively, which is less than the recommended limit of WHO. The average ACH was 19.67±2.18 per hour. No significant relationship was observed between ACH and the number of colonies (p-value ≥ 0.05). Risk assessment for bacteria and fungi were at an acceptable level and the concentration of bioaerosols was recognized as the most sensitive variable influencing the risk. Conclusion: Increasing ACH will not lead to a reduction in the load of bioaerosol pollution in operating rooms, which can be very important in the management of reducing energy consumption.

Health Risk Assessment of Nitrate, Nitrite, and Fluoride Ions in Water Reservoirs of Mehriz, Iran in 2023

Introduction: High concentrations of nitrate, nitrite, and fluoride in drinking water can cause adverse health effects. This study aims to investigate concentration and health risks assessment of nitrate, nitrite, and fluoride ions in water reservoirs of Mehriz city and Bahadoran district. Materials and Methods: Monthly sampling was done from water reservoirs of Mehriz city and Bahadoran district for 6 months. Nitrate, nitrite, and fluoride concentrations were measured in the samples using a spectrophotometer. Then, health risk assessment and sensitivity analysis were performed on the obtained data using Crystal Ball software and Monte Carlo simulation method. Results: Nitrate, nitrite, and fluoride concentrations were lower than the standard limitation in all of the studied areas. Risk assessment findings indicated that hazard quotient (HQ) values of nitrite in Miankoh-Movahedin, Bidok and Bahadoran water reservoirs were less than 1 for all age groups. HQ values of nitrate were also below 1 for all age groups except children. HQ values of fluoride in Bahadoran water reservoir were below 1 for all age groups except children. Conclusion: Health risk of consuming water containing nitrates and fluorides is high for children. Based on sensitivity analysis, the concentration of nitrate and fluoride in drinking water is the key factor in raising health risks. Reducing nitrate and fluoride concentrations in drinking water can reduce health risks in the population.

Can China avoid the energy trilemma in achieving carbon peak?: A dynamic scenario forecasting study based on energy transition

Harmonizing the cleanliness and economics of energy is an effective means of integrating economic growth with carbon peaking goals, and realizing sustainable development in China. However, due to the existence of the energy trilemma, a worthwhile research question is how to fulfill the carbon peaking commitment while guaranteeing China's stable national development. Based on this, this paper not only discusses the nonlinear relationship between clean energy consumption transition and economic growth through threshold regression, but also simulates several scenarios of energy transition dynamics with different growth rates by using Oracle Crystal Ball software to forecast the future trend of China's carbon emissions up to 2030, aiming to find a transition scenario that can make the peak of carbon emissions appear without significant economic burden, so as to put forward countermeasures and suggestions to avoid falling into the energy trilemma in the process of fulfilling the commitment of carbon peaking. This paper finds that: firstly, there is an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between clean energy consumption transition and economic growth, with the inflection point of the inverted U-shape being 0.595; and secondly, only when energy transition exceeds 0.535 in 2030, the peak of carbon emissions (about 12,922.28 Mt) will occur. In summary, this paper argues that China should steadily advance energy transition, avoiding either too fast or too slow a pace (bring clean energy consumption transition to within the 0.535–0.595 range by 2030), in order to secure economic growth while honoring its commitment to peak carbon. Therefore, China should prudently design a coal exit strategy to avoid falling into the energy trilemma when promoting energy transition. Moreover, if China wants to further fulfill its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060, it needs to continue to deepen the construction of green financial markets in order to better balance the relationship between energy cleanliness and economy.

A novel model for predicting the productivity index of horizontal/vertical wells based on Darcy's law, drainage radius, and flow convergence

The Productivity Index (PI) of oil wells is essential to developing a field's production plan, and previous studies report different models for predicting the PI of horizontal or vertical wells. However, predicting the PI of horizontal and vertical wells using a single cost-effective model remains unaccomplished. The models only predict results for either box-shaped or circular reservoirs. Thus, this study reports a new model for predicting the PI of horizontal and vertical wells in any reservoir type. The model incorporates the length of the horizontal section and formation thickness to Darcy's equation, and forms empirically the external drainage radius using vertical and horizontal radii. It includes both geometric pseudoskin (accounting for fluid convergence) and empirically determined correction parameters. The derived PI is validated using data from box-shaped and circular reservoirs, and the results showed that changes in permeability, well length, or well radius affect the PI for both reservoir types. In addition, the drainage radius of the horizontal well increased non-linearly with the PI. Sensitivity analyses of 20,000 runs and 20,000 trials, carried out with the Crystal Ball software, showed that the viscosity and formation volume factor were the most important variables that affected the PI, for both reservoir types.

Simulation of excess lifetime cancer risk due to the presence of radon in groundwater in Wamba town of Wamba local government area, Nasarawa state, Nigeria

The measurements of Radon concentration in ten groundwater (4-wells and 6-boreholes) from Wamba town of Wamba Local Government Area of Nigeria had been carried out. The annual effective dose (AED) and the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) due to ingestion of the groundwater was established to ascertain the risk outcome from the samples. Radon concentration was detected using RAD7. The minimum Radon concentration was 0.146 Bql-1 while the maximum was 0.474 Bql-1 with mean average of 0.3134 Bql-1 which are within the United States Environmental Protection Agencies (USEPA) 11.1 Bq/L recommendation. Moreso, the maximum and minimum Annual Effective Dose (AEDing) was 3.5×10^(-6) and 1.10×10^(-6) Sv/yr which are also within the 0.1 mSv/yr World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation, while the maximum and minimum Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) was 1.44×10^(-5) and 4.50×10^(-6) respectively. Cumulative probability simulation of the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) was carried out using Oracle Crystal Ball software validated by 10 and 90% percentiles. Comparison of all the results with the European Union (EU)/World Health Organization (WHO) value of 500 Bq/L recommendation revealed that all the samples analyzed have Radon concentration below the recommended limit. The average mean Radon concentration in the ten locations from Wamba Town are within the recommended levels as confirmed by the simulation results. At 10% Probability, the highest risk was found in Event center (1.26×10^(-5)) while the lowest was found in the water sample collected from Angwan dalatu (1.05×10^(-6)) while at 90% probability the highest (1.62×10^(-5)) and lowest (1.37×10^(-6)) risk was found in the same Events center and Angwan dalatu. Though there is variation in the results based on locations which means that the concentration of Radon gas depends on the geological nature of the bedrock and generally increases with the uranium concentration in the local geology. The Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) dose results are far lower than the UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiations) recommended maximum contamination level of 0.003875. Therefore, no indication of any likelihood of cancer incidence as a result of waterborne radon within the studied community that may demand urgent intervention from radiological point of view.

Evaluation of health risk of glyphosate pesticide intake via surface and subsurface water consumption: A deterministic and probabilistic approach

As the usage of pesticides for both agricultural and non-agricultural uses increases, it is more important than ever to employ probabilistic methods rather than deterministic ones to calculate the danger to human health. The current work demonstrates the application of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to assess the human health risk related to glyphosate during the consumption of surface and groundwater by different population groups. To that aim, the concentration of glyphosate pesticide in the surface and groundwater was measured and human health risk for three population groups including children, teens, and adults was evaluated. Overall, the probabilistic approach via Monte Carlo simulation showed a valid result for the estimation of human health risk and determination of dominant input parameters.•The health risk of glyphosate exposure during water consumption for various population groups were evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic methods.•The modeling is performed by Crystal Ball (11.1.2.4) software, as open access software, and requires a limited number of inputs.•The probabilistic method could reliably assess the risks of glyphosate by considering the variability and uncertainty in input variables.

An integrated decision support framework for selecting envelope and AC systems in hot-humid climate

This paper aims to introduce a framework that applies life cycle cost (LCC)-based optimization, life cycle assessment (LCA) and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods for the selection of optimum envelope materials and AC systems for housing projects. A total of 37 selection criteria and 28 material alternatives were first identified through a comprehensive literature review and interviews with local experts. “DesignBuilder”, a computer simulation software, was used to conduct the LCC-based optimization and LCA for the identified alternatives. Furthermore, uncertainties and risk associated with the selected alternatives were computed using Monte Carlo simulation via the Crystal Ball software and Efficient Frontier analysis via the Excel Spreadsheets. The identified selection criteria were then prioritized and assigned with utility scores based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) methods. Seven scenarios with different objectives were set for an existing case study. The implementation of the framework showed that when taken into account the application of multi-criteria methods, the highest saving combination of materials is selected by the framework. The validation process was carried out through conducting interviews with local experts based on the results obtained from real case project. The experts agreed that the proposed framework can be beneficial to the industry as it takes into consideration not only quantitative criteria, but also qualitative criteria that are important to owners and designers.

Arsenic level in drinking water, its correlation with water quality parameters, and associated health risks.

This study aimed to evaluate the occurrence and likelihood of health risks related to arsenic in drinking water of all counties of the Hamadan province in the northwest of Iran. In this work, 370 samples were collected from all of the water resources of urban and rural regions, during 5years (2017 to 2021). Oracle Crystal Ball software was used to perform the Monte Carlo simulation and investigate the potential health risks. According to the results, the average values of arsenic in the nine counties were in the order Kabudarahang (40.1ppb), Malayer (13.1ppb), Nahavand (6.1ppb), Bahar (2.05ppb), Famenin (0.41ppb), Asadabad (0.36ppb), Tuyserkan (0.28ppb), Razan (0.14ppb), and Hamadan (< 0.1ppb). The highest concentration of arsenic occurred in Kabudarahang with a maximum value of 185ppb. In the spring season, the average concentration of the cations, including calcium, magnesium, sodium, lead, cadmium, and chromium, obtained 109.51mg/l, 44.67mg/l, 20.50mg/l, 88.76ppb, 0.31ppb, and 0.02ppb, respectively. Based on the Delphi classification, the P 90% of oral lifetime cancer risk, in Hamadan province, were within level II (low risk) to VII (extremely high risk). The risk analysis revealed there was a possible carcinogenic risk to humans from oral exposure to As-contaminated groundwater, especially in Kabudarahang county. Therefore, there is an urgent need for management and precise measures in contaminated areas to reduce and prevent the adverse health effects of arsenic.

Multi-objective optimization model of cutting parameters for a sustainable multi-pass turning process

The turning process involves the linear removal of material from the work-piece and requires a relatively high amount of energy. The high energy consumption of the machining process increases carbon emissions, which affects the environment. Moreover, production costs will rise as the cost of energy rises. Energy savings during the machining process are crucial for achieving sustainable manufacturing. In order to determine and optimize the cutting parameters, this study creates a multi-pass turning processes optimi¬zation model. It considers cutting speeds, feed rates, and depth of cut. In this study, the model uses multi-objective optimization by incorporating three objective functions: processing time, energy consumption and product¬ion costs. OptQuest completed the proposed model in Oracle Crystal Ball software, then normalized and weighted the sum. Ordering preferences, the Multi-Objective Optimization based on Ratio Analysis (MOORA) approach is utilized. It ranks items based on their higher priority values. This paper provides a numerical example to demonstrate the application of an optimi¬zation model. Based on the preference order ranking results, the optimal values for three objective functions are as follows: total processing time of 4.953 min, the total energy consumption of 5.434 MJ, and total production cost of 395.21$.

New Approaches to Project Risk Assessment Utilizing the Monte Carlo Method

An environment of turbulence in the market in recent years and increasing inflation, mainly as a result of the post-COVID period and the ongoing military operation in Ukraine, represents a significant financial risk factor for many companies, which has a negative impact on managerial decisions. A lot of enterprises are forced to look for ways to effectively assess the riskiness of the projects that they would like to implement in the future. The aim of the article is to present a new approach for companies with which to assess the riskiness of projects. The basis of this is the use of the new Crystal Ball software tool and the effective application of the Monte Carlo method. The article deals with the current issues of investment and financial planning, which are the basic pillars for effective management decisions with the goal of sustainability. The article has verified a methodology that allows companies to make effective investment decisions based on assessing the level of risk. For practical application, the Monte Carlo method was chosen, as it uses sensitivity analysis and simulations, which were evaluated for two types of projects. Both simulations were primarily carried out based on a deterministic approach through traditional mathematical models. Subsequently, stochastic modeling was performed using the Crystal Ball software tool. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, two tornado graphs were created, which display risk factors according to the degree of their influence on the criterion value. The output of this article is the presentation of these new approaches for financial decision-making within companies.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis of high‐dose tigecycline, by Monte Carlo simulation, in plasma and sputum of patients with hospital‐acquired pneumonia

To Investigate the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters of high-dose tigecycline in plasma and sputum of patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP), and provide a therapeutic regimen of multidrug-resistant bacteria (MDRB) infections. Blood/sputum samples were collected at intervals after tigecycline had reached a steady-state. Tigecycline concentrations in specimens were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HLPC), PK parameters were evaluated by WinNonlin software using a non-compartment model. The probability of target attainments (PTAs) at different minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were calculated for achieving the PK/PD index with Crystal Ball software by 10,000-patient Monte Carlo Simulation. In plasma, the maximum concentration (Cmax ) and area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 12 h (AUC0-12h ) were 2.21 ± 0.17 mg/L and 15.29 ± 1.13 hmg/L, respectively. In sputum, they were 2.48 ± 0.21 mg/L and 19.46 ± 1.82 hmg/L, respectively. The mean lung penetration rate was 127.27%. At the MIC ≤4mg/L, the PTAs in plasma and sputum were 100.00%. When the MIC increased to 8mg/L, the PTAs in plasma and sputum mostly were < 90.00% according to two criteria. In this study, we explored PK/PD of high-dose tigecycline in plasma and sputum. From a PK/PD perspective, high-dose tigecycline had greater therapeutic outcomes in HAP treatment caused by MDRB. Antimicrobial-drug concentrations should be determined to optimize their clinical use.

Groundwater Health Risk Assessment Based on Monte Carlo Model Sensitivity Analysis of Cr and As—A Case Study of Yinchuan City

Groundwater is an important resource for domestic use and irrigation in the Yinchuan region of northwest China. However, the quality of groundwater in this region is declining due to human activities, with adverse effects on human health. In order to study the effects of chemical elements in groundwater on human health, the human health risk of drinking groundwater was calculated based on the actual situation in China and on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) model. Moreover, the sensitivity of contaminant exposure in drinking water wells was quantified using Monte Carlo simulation to minimize uncertainty in conjunction with USEPA risk assessment techniques, with the aim to identify the major carcinogenic factors. In addition, Visual Minteq was used to analyze the possible ionic forms of the major factors in the hydrogeological environment of the study area. The results showed that the mean CR values for As were 2.94 × 10−0.5 and 5.93 × 10−0.5 for the dry and rainy seasons, respectively, while for 2018 they were 5.48 × 10−0.5 and 3.59 × 10−0.5, respectively. In parallel, the CR values for children for 2017 were 6.28 × 10−0.5 and 1.27 × 10−0.4, respectively, and 1.17 × 10−0.4 and 7.67 × 10−0.5, respectively, indicating a considerably higher carcinogenic risk for children than for adults. results of the sensitivity analysis of Cr6+ and As using Crystal Ball software showed association values of 0.9958 and 1 for As and 0.0948 and 0 for Cr in the dry and rainy seasons in 2017, and 0.7424 and 0.5759 for As and 0.6237 and 0.8128 for Cr in the dry and rainy seasons in 2018, respectively. Only in the rainy season of 2018, the association values for As were lower than those for Cr, indicating that As is more sensitive to total carcinogenic risk. The results of the visual coinage model analysis showed that among all the possible ionic forms of As, the activity of HAsO42− had the largest logarithmic value and that of H3AsO4 had the smallest value, regardless of pH changes. This indicates that HAsO42− is the ionic form of As with the main carcinogenic factor in the hydrogeological environment of the study area. Therefore, corresponding environmental control measures need to be taken in time to strengthen the monitoring and control of As, especially HAsO42−, in the groundwater of the study area. This study is of great significance for Yinchuan city to formulate groundwater pollution risk management and recovery.

Cost for implementation of grape crop in the north catarinens plane and return prospects: comparing espaldeira and manger system

The present study analyzes the production costs and the expectations of return on investment and the risks associated with the cultivation of grapes comparing two driving systems, cultivated in the region of the North Plateau of Santa Catarina, the espalier system with an approximate production of 800 boxes of 10 kg per hectare of Niagara Branca or Niagara Rosada grapes, and the manger system with an approximate production of 2000 boxes of 10 kg per hectare of the same type of grape. Both with five-year production cycles. This is an applied research in terms of its nature, descriptive in terms of its objective and a case study in terms of the strategy for approaching the problem. The information and data collected through documental research and semi-structured interviews were systematized in a cash flow projected in the respective terms, from an AMR of 6% pa. The Multi-Index Methodology was used to analyze the return and risks involved. From the results found, Monte Carlo simulation was used, through the Crystal Ball software, which point out that the average NPV of the 700m³/ st / ha option for 14 years exceeds the 420 m³ / st / option by R$16,869.00. for 7 years, the same occurring with IRR/average at 4.76% and ROIA/average at 3.46%. Although the results of the two varieties studied can be considered satisfactory, showing that the choice of one option over the other will depend on the opportunity presented in relation to reapplication of the gain, the values found show that the grape cultivation strategy by the manger driving presents a higher return to the investor.

Population Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Vancomycin in Pediatric Patients With Various Degrees of Renal Function.

Although vancomycin dosage recommendations in the pediatric setting for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection indicate that ≥60 mg/kg/day is correlated to a desired area under the vancomycin concentration time curve from 0 to 24 hours to minimum inhibitory concentration ratio (AUC0-24 hr/MIC) ≥400, for some patients this dosage is inadequate or relates to toxicity. This study purposed to explore vancomycin dosing for pediatrics with various degrees of renal function. Routine monitoring data were retrospectively collected from patients, aged 1 month to 18 years. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed by using non-linear mixed-effect model with NONMEM software, and Monte Carlo simulation was conducted by using Crystal Ball software. Two hundred twelve patients with 348 vancomycin serum concentrations were included. Median age was 3.5 years (IQR, 0.9-10.9), median weight was 14.0 kg (IQR, 7.2-30.4), with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ranging from 15.5 to 359.3 mL/min/1.73 m2. A 1-compartment model with first-order elimination sufficiently described vancomycin PK. The dosing targeting AUC0-24hr/MIC ≥400 and AUC0-24hr <800 mg•h/L for pediatric patients with eGFRs of 15 to 29, 30 to 59, 60 to 89, 90 to 129, and 130 to 160 mL/min/1.73 m2 was 12.5, 25, 40, 60, and 70 mg/kg/day, respectively. All vancomycin dosing obtained >85% of the cumulative fraction of response across the MIC distribution of MRSA. Vancomycin dosing of 12.5, 25, 40, 60, and 70 mg/kg/day is suggested for pediatric patients with eGFRs of 15 to 29, 30 to 59, 60 to 89, 90 to 129, and 130 to 160 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively.

Life Cycle Assessment of Construction and Demolition Waste from Railway Engineering Projects.

Railway engineering generates large amounts of construction and demolition waste (CDW). To quantify the amount of CDW generated from railway engineering projects throughout the whole life cycle, a process-based life cycle assessment model is proposed in this paper. The life-cycle CDW is divided into four parts: CDW from off-site transportation of construction materials (OSTCM), CDW from site operation wastage of construction materials (SOWCM), discard ballast from roadbeds, stationyard, bridges and tunnels (DB), and CDW from reparation and renewal of aging components (RRAC). Yun-Gui Railway is selected as a case study to validate the developed model, and an uncertainty analysis is conducted with Oracle Crystal Ball software. The results show that between 175 and 311 million tons of CDW is generated throughout the whole life cycle of Yun-Gui Railway. DB is the largest component of the life-cycle CDW from railway engineering projects. This indicates the negative environmental impacts of railway construction can be significantly mitigated by optimizing the location of ballast disposal sites and developing suitable landfill proposals. Also, the CDW generated by wastage of construction materials during off-site construction and site operation is important in waste management in railway engineering projects, in which rubble, sand, and cement have the high potential for waste reduction. Findings from this study can contribute to the knowledge body as well as the engineering practice in green railways.

Process optimization, scale-up studies, economic analysis and risk assessment of phenolic rich bioactive extracts production from Carica papaya L. leaves via heat-assisted extraction technology

This work investigated the influence of process variables of extraction temperature (35–55 °C), solid to liquid ratio (1:20–1:50 g/mL) and time (100–200 min) on the total phenolic content (TPC) and yield (EY) of Carica papaya leaves (CPL) extracts using Box-Behnken experimental design available in Design Expert software. Bi-objective process optimization was also carried out using the desirability function algorithm. The optimum process variables were later used to design an integrated process for the production of CPL extracts with the assistance of SuperPro Designer software. Scale-up studies and economic analysis for CPL extracts production were investigated in the range of 0.638–20.431 × 103 kg CPL extracts/y to determine the most economically feasible production capacity based on the minimum unit production cost (UPC) of CPL extracts. The risk and sensitivity analyses of the most economically feasible production scale were carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation in Oracle Crystal Ball software. Process variables had notable influences on the TPC and EY of CPL extracts. The extraction temperature of 35 °C, solid to liquid ratio of 40.25 g/mL and time of 100 min gave the optimum TPC of 74.65 mg GAE/g d.b and EY of 18.76 % (w/w). HPLC results indicated that CPL extracts were rich in gallic, betulinic, chlorogenic, ellagic, ferulic and caffeic acids. The designed integrated process showed similar behavior with the laboratory scale of 0.18758 g CPL extracts/batch. The preliminary techno-economic analysis indicated that plant capacity has a strong dependence on the material & energy demands and process economics. Plant capacity of 19.857 × 103 kg CPL extracts/y possessed the least UPC and was selected as the most economically feasible scale. The certainty of obtaining base case UPC value of 525.21 US$/kg CPL extracts was 75.20%. Sensitivity analysis showed that extracts recovery, CPL/water, centrifuge purchase cost, extraction time, extractor purchase cost and extraction temperature contributed -5.3 %, +42.8%, +4.0%, +47.1%, +0.1%, and +0.5%, respectively to the variance in UPC of CPL extracts.

Evaluation of Dosages Regimen of Fluconazole in Patients of Candidemia with Gender by PK/PD and Mote Carlo Simulation

Candidemia is one of the four most common nosocomial blood infections and is the most common hospital-acquired fungemia in a recent multi-institutional study from the US. The mortality of Candidemia can be up to 50%. Fluconazole is a triazole derivative widely used for the treatment of invasive candidiasis. It was recommended as first-line drugs for the treatment and prevention of mycoses. In our study, we aimed to optimise the dosage of fluconazole with gender against Candida spp. based on pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) analysis. We collected the published data about pharmacokinetic parameters of fluconazole and the MIC distribution of Candida spp. on fluconazole. We decided to evaluate the gender between males and females with the pharmacokinetics of fluconazole. Using probability of target attainment (PTA) and cumulative fraction of response (CFR) as indexes, crystal ball software 11.1.2.4 was used for Monte Carlo simulation of different dosage regimens of different males and females. For C. albicans, C. tropicalis and C. lusitaniae, when doses of regimen are 100 mg IV, 200 mg IV and MIC was lower than 1 g/ml, PTA was higher than 90%. For C. tropicalis, each dosing regimen and MIC was less than 2 g/ml. PTA was higher than 90%. As C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis, C. krusei, C. guilliermondii for PTA with more than 90%, MIC of fluconazole 200 mg were less than 32 g/ml, 64 g/ml and 64 g/ml, respectively. For the different dosage regimens 100 mg IV and 200 mg IV of fluconazole for Candida spp., it is desirable that fluconazole dosage regimens take into account both the gender of the patient.

Study on Excavation Period Estimation of Deep Hole Presplitting Blasting Based on Monte Carlo

In order to improve the tunneling efficiency of hard rock roadway, its construction process is better controlled. The deep hole presplitting blasting excavation process of 1605 roadway in Guhanshan Mine is taken as the object. The Oracle Crystal Ball software is used to simulate the process of roadway excavation by Monte Carlo simulation. The possible construction period time and distribution law of single cycle of roadway excavation are predicted. The sensitivity of each process is analyzed, and the bottleneck process that has a great influence on the process is found. Then, the process that needs to be controlled is further analyzed and studied. The drilling depth of the drilling process is changed, and the tunneling speed and the change of sensitivity of each process under different drilling depths are analyzed. The results show that the Monte Carlo simulation method can calculate the duration of roadway excavation, find the bottleneck process of roadway excavation process, and find the optimal parameters of its process.

Monte Carlo Simulation in a Peruvian Highway

Highways and roads are important for nations' development and life quality. This is not different for Peru. A highway project called Daniel Alcides Carrión is expected to provide a solution to the over-employed Carretera Central road. This is a multimillionaire and important infrastructure project. Hence, it is important to evaluate the possible sustainability risks. In consequence, this study employed the Monte Carlo simulation for such a purpose. First, variables have been chosen and segregated into input and output. Variables like the initial investment, recurrent maintenance, periodical maintenance, savings in the operative cost of vehicles, and time savings employed the triangular distribution. Traffic growth and inflation rate employed the Pert distribution. The project's Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return have been selected as output variables. Crystal Ball software has been employed to perform the Monte Carlo analysis. Consequently, this research found a high probability that the highway can become a profitable project due to its Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. Moreover, savings in operative costs of vehicles and traffic growth rate had positive impacts on the project's Net Present Value. However, the initial investment had a negative relationship with the output variable. Hence, the new highway should take prevision policies to maintain traffic flux. Thus, avoid closures that can have both human and natural sources. This study is the first in the Peruvian academic literature regarding highways risk analysis. Moreover, this study provides researchers, state officials, future highway managers, and users' valuable information to elaborate preventive measures to maintain the highway's social sustainability and increase its benefits.

Viability analysis for use of methane obtained from green hydrogen as a reducing agent in copper smelters

This study explores the use of green hydrogen as a flexible and environmentally-friendly energy vector in copper mining. The refining of copper sulphide ores involves several stages, such as comminution, froth flotation and smelting. The latter produces a higher concentration of copper through chemical transformations of copper sulphide ores. Reducing agents such as coal, coke, ferrosilicon and diesel are typically used in this step, but these reagents unfortunately have a considerable environmental footprint. The main goal of this work was therefore to perform a techno-economic analysis for methane production from the use of green hydrogen as a reducing agent for the smelting stage. The methodology involved the evaluation of the project based on a Net Present Value calculation and a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which were performed using Oracle Crystal Ball software. The main results show a Net Present Value of 5.459 M USD and an 11.8-year pay-back. Multiparametric analysis shows that NPV is positive with 97.32% of confidence and that the main variable affecting the NPV is the methane price (contribution to variance of 97,8%). We conclude that the use of green hydrogen in copper smelting is a technically viable solution with economic and environmental benefits. The economic evaluation could be further improved with the incorporation of the heat and oxygen by-product, further reducing the CO2 emission.