Crop Choice Research Articles

O3 and Drought Effects on Steady State Conductance and Kinetics in Pima Cotton

The degree to which ozone (O3) exposure and drought affect stomatal control of water loss and respond to environmental stimuli such as varying light is poorly characterized. To that end, we exposed Pima cotton to chronic O3 exposure (month-long daytime exposures) with and without sufficient water, as well as short term acute O3 exposure and varying light levels to understand stomatal kinetics. Chronic, month-long exposure to moderately high O3 (~114 ppb) reduced daytime steady state stomatal conductance (gs), as did water deficit. Both stomatal opening and closing displayed dose specific, “sluggish” responses to step-changes in illumination with acute, 1-day, O3 exposures of 0, 50, 100, and 125 ppb. At higher concentration (150 ppb), stomatal control of both opening and closing was degraded. Altered steady state and dynamic stomatal function suggest that elevated ambient O3, expected to increase in the future, may increasingly influence field water management and appropriate crop choices.

Enrichment of Crop Yield Prophecy Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Strong associations exist between the crop productivity and the seasonal, biological, economical causes in natural ecosystems. The linkages like climatic conditions, health of a soil, growth of crop, irrigation, fertilizers, temperature, rainwater, pesticides desired to be preserved in comprehensively managed crop lands which impacts the crop potency. Crop yield prognosis plays a vibrant part in agricultural planning, administration and environs sustainability. Advancements in the field of Machine Learning have perceived novel expectations to improve the prediction performance in Agriculture. Highly gratifying prediction of crop yield helps the majority of agronomists for their rapid decision-making in the choice of crop to be cultivated. This paper makes an attempt to suggest which crop can be sown at a particular district in Tamil Nadu, depending on the factors required for the growth of the crop based on the research outcomes. This is achieved by applying clustering on the attributes in the dataset using E-DBSCAN and is compared with three different algorithms such as DBSCAN, CLARA and K-means. The best suitable factor for the growth of a crop for a location is predicted using clustering techniques. The accuracy of crop yield prediction is calculated for three crops, namely, rice, wheat and maize. The proposed method outperforms in terms of Bias, F1 Score, MAPE, MDAE, MSE, RAE, RMSE and MAE with existing algorithms in the literature.

Terms of Trade for Selected Crops in Rajasthan: Insights on Farmers’ Complex Crop Choice Behaviour

This study estimated the Terms of Trade (TOT) between the input and output prices for pearl millet, wheat, paddy and gram crops cultivated in Jaipur, Sri Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Ajmer districts respectively in Rajasthan state for the period 1996-97 to 2018-19. It was found that the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Procurement Price Index (PPI) and Farm Harvest Price Index (FHPI) have increased consistently for all crops with a CAGR ranging from 5-8 per cent p.a. The CAGR of Composite Input Price Index (CIPI) was always higher (ranging from 6-8% p.a.) than the PPI and FHPI indicating that the input prices have increased at a much higher rate than the output prices during the study period. Analysis revealed that TOT (ratio of PPI to CIPI and ratio of FHPI to CIPI) for all crops for most of the years was unfavourable (<100) as evident from negative CAGR (ranging from -0.15 to -2.40% p.a.). The selection of the base year in which output prices are around 150% (i.e. 1.5 times the cost of cultivation) of the composite input prices for estimating TOT is recommended. The study further explored as to why farmers cultivated these crops despite declining and negative TOT.

Volatility and the Gains From Trade

Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second‐moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro‐data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted their production toward crops with less volatile yields, especially so for those with poor access to risk mitigating technologies such as banks. We then characterize how volatility affects farmers' crop allocation using a portfolio choice framework where returns are determined in general equilibrium by a many‐location, many‐good Ricardian trade model with flexible trade costs. Finally, we structurally estimate the model—recovering farmers' risk‐return preferences from the gradient of the mean‐variance frontier at their observed crop choices—to quantify the second‐moment effects of trade. The simultaneous expansion of both the highway and rural bank networks increased the mean and the variance of farmer real income, with the first‐moment effect dominating such that expected welfare rose 4.4%. But had rural bank access remained unchanged, welfare gains would have been only half as great, as risk mitigating technologies allowed farmers to take advantage of higher‐risk higher‐return allocations.

Identifying drivers of change and predicting future land-use impacts in established farmlands

ABSTRACT There is growing consensus that global food systems will need to undergo substantial transformations to ensure continued food security and to halt environmental degradation. Such efforts will have to include more sustainable management of existing farmscapes. Here, we examine drivers of cropland transitions between 13 crop commodities cultivated in Kern County, California. We parameterized multinomial logistic regression models of crop choices, using observed data from 2002 to 2018. We then simulated future crop choices under three scenarios exploring the consequences of climate change, water shortages and policy response, and projected impacts on three agroecosystem pressures (water-use, soil erosion, pesticide-use), and three agroecosystem services (profits, nutrition, and carbon sequestration). Agricultural land-use transitions were especially sensitive to biophysical factors, profits and neighborhood effects. Our results illustrate how climate change may lead to landscape-level crop replacement by 2050, with likely significant socio-ecological consequences.

The impact of mineral nutrition on winter barley yields while using mustard as a precursor crop

The impact of mineral nutrition on winter barley yields while using mustard as a precursor crop

Evaluating the adaptability of an irrigation district to seasonal water availability using a decade of remotely sensed evapotranspiration estimates

Competition for fresh water is increasing in highly populated areas especially those regions located in arid and semi-arid climates. Water uses are under scrutiny to determine the potential for water savings. Particularly, the agricultural sector is identified because it is the largest consumer of water. However, information is limited on the year-to-year variability of agricultural irrigation management, specifically the variability related to seasonal water availability. Remote sensing is a useful input into models to estimate actual evapotranspiration (ETa) for large irrigation districts and provides an archive of historical data. In this paper, a decade of remote sensing data are used applying the METRIC algorithm and linear interpolation to achieve ETa estimates. Inter-annual variations in seasonal ETa are related to snowpack, weather, irrigation diversions and crop data to understand the factors having an impact. It was found that consecutive (second) years of dry or wet events impacted the seasonal ETa, indicating limitations in the buffer capacity of the irrigation district. This study shows that the irrigation district is capable of buffering dry or wet events during the first year, but need to adapt during a consecutive year of extreme dry or wet weather. Additionally, cropping patterns indicate that the crop choices in the irrigation district do not change during extreme events. In contrast, irrigation diversions are influenced by prolonged dry events. The depleted fraction indicated good performance of the irrigation system, with potential for improvements in dry years. This study demonstrates the dynamic consumptive water use of an irrigation district, thereby indicating the importance for considering multiple years of data for an assessment of the agricultural sectors’ water use. Additionally, the impact of seasonal water availability gives insight on the adaptability of an irrigation district and its’ capability to cope with current and future variability in weather conditions and extreme events.

Soil properties after one year of interseeded cover cropping in topographically diverse agricultural landscape

Planting cover crops within or following a cash crop may improve soil-based ecosystem services due to increased plant diversity and a longer duration of live vegetation coverage. We examined the effect of three different cover cropping systems on soil properties after one year of a three-year organic transition rotation at four agricultural field sites with contrasting topographical positions, namely depressions, slopes, and summits. The four studied systems were (1) cereal rye (Secale cereal L.) planted after corn (Zea mays L.) harvest (Rye); (2) a mixture of cold susceptible cover crop species, namely, oat (Avena sativa), winter pea (Pisum sativum), and radish (Raphanus sativus), interseeded into corn (WK); (3) a mixture of cold tolerant cover crop species, namely, annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum), Dwarf Essex rapeseed (Brassica napus), and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum), interseeded into corn (WH); and (4) a no-cover control (NC). While soil moisture was affected by topography, interseeding cover crops into corn did not influence soil moisture levels at the 0–10 cm depth for the studied year. Soil NO3- content was markedly higher in the WK system compared to cereal rye and WH cover crop treatments. The difference was especially pronounced in depressions and summits. Soil N mineralization rates followed the pattern WH>WK>Rye>NC and the effects were most pronounced in slopes. Soil microbial biomass C was the highest in depressions followed by summits and slopes, and in depressions the WH had higher microbial biomass than the other systems. There were no effects of cover crops and topography on soil C mineralization one year after the organic transition was initiated. The WH system increased the fraction of 0.053–2 mm aggregates and decreased > 2 mm aggregates in depressions. The results suggest that the effect of cover cropping can become evident already one year after the organic transition begins. The WH mixture interseeded into the cash crop was an optimal cover crop choice for improving soil characteristics as well as decreasing soil N leaching risks during organic transition in undulating agricultural terrain. However, the magnitude of the benefit provided by WH was mediated by topography.

Review and analysis of perennial cereal crops at different maturity stages

The article presents an overview of perennial grain crops, gives a comparative characteristic of annual winter wheat and perennial grain crops such as Trititrigia (Trititrigia cziczinii Tsvelev), Thinopyrum intermedium, perennial rye (Secale cereale L) and perennial sorghum (Sorghum x derzhavinii Tzvel.). The study aims to consider the main perennial crops grown in Russia and in the world, to compare their quality indicators, sowing agrotechnical requirements, cultivation conditions, yields, and to justify the choice of perennial crops that meet the needs and climatic conditions of the Rostov region. Presented is the generalized information on the grain quality changes during maturation, ripeness phases of grain crops are considered. Based on the review, the optimal ripeness phases, at which it is advisable to harvest are presented. Literature review showed that in the phase of lactic (мoлoчнaя cпeлocть) and wax maturity (вocкoвaя cпeлocть) wheat grain contains the greatest amount of basic nutrients. It was found that perennial crops have a positive effect on the state of the soil: prevent its erosion and depletion; there is an accumulation of carbon, soil methane CH 4. Comparative characterization of perennial crops with annual crops shows increased protein content - on average 2-3% higher. Also considered are the green mass quality indicators of perennial crops as a source of nutrients in the feed-production technology.

Adapting to Climate Change Through Conservation Agriculture: A Gendered Analysis of Eastern Zambia

This study explored the use of conservation agriculture (CA) as a climate adaptation strategy among smallholder farmers in Eastern Zambia. Using 761 household interviews and 33 focus group discussions (FGDs) with smallholder farmers from six districts, data was collected on how smallholder farmers in the region experience climate change, what CA practices they had adopted, and benefits and challenges associated with CA practice. Results show that men and women farmers had similar experiences of climate change, namely late onset of a shortened rainy season, intra-seasonal drought and higher temperatures. Farmers' perceptions of gender-mediated effects of climate change had important nuances. The three most cited effects of climate change on women mentioned by women were lower crop yields, outbreaks of armyworms and reduced livestock fodder. The men thought women were most affected by increased hunger, lower crop yields and reduced domestic water sources. According to the women FGDs, men were most affected through reduced crop yields, increases in livestock diseases and increased hunger. The men self-reported reduced crop yields, reduced water for livestock and outbreaks of armyworms. Both men and women saw CA as having climate change adaptation benefits. For the women, men most benefitted from CA through the high moisture holding capacity of basins, higher crop yields and reduced labor requirements through use of oxen ripping. The men most appreciated the high crop yields, improved soil fertility and reduced costs as less fertilizer is used. The women cited the high moisture holding capacity of basins, high crop yields and improved soil fertility as benefits they most commonly derived from CA, while the men thought the women most benefitted from CA through the higher crop yields, improved soil fertility and crop tolerance to droughts. The study concludes that there is room for CA to serve as a climate smart agricultural system for both men and women smallholder farmers in Eastern Zambia. However, this will require addressing important challenges of high weed pressure, high labor demands, and low access to manure, and CA farming implements. The CA package for Zambia should include access to timely climate information and climate informed crop choices.

Role of knowledge in the management of groundwater-use for irrigation in micro-watersheds of semi-arid India

ABSTRACT The micro-watershed development programme in India promotes the recharging of groundwater tables to facilitate irrigation in otherwise rainfall-dependent agricultural communities. This study investigates the potential of agricultural extension agencies in encouraging the sustainable use of the common-pool resource of groundwater through local governance. Findings suggest that extension agencies strongly influence farmers’ crop choices (a representation of irrigation use), in accordance with the proposition that knowledge dissemination on groundwater use and its impact encourages collective action (U7-SES framework). Finally, farmers with higher irrigation demand are the conduit between the extension agency and community, highlighting their potential for programme management.

Spatial variation in soil properties and crop yield on stone bund terraces in southwest Ethiopia

AbstractErosion and associated soil degradation are major threats to cropland productivity on the steep slopes of the Ethiopian highlands. To limit erosion from cultivated land on sloping terrain, stone bunds for soil conservation have been used for decades, resulting in the formation of terraces. Although qualitatively well known, the difference in soil properties and crop performance between the upper and lower sections of the terraces (intra‐bund areas) has not been documented quantitatively. Here, we assess differences in soil properties of the plough layer and crop performance in the upper and lower sections of terraces in between stone bunds in southwest Ethiopia. A total of 27 terraces, with a length of 28.5–57 m and a distance of 6.5–14.7 m in between adjacent stone bunds, were sampled on six different farms during the 2018 and 2019 cropping seasons. The difference in soil properties was analysed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results showed that, in the lower section of a terrace, the concentration of soil organic carbon (18.6 g kg−1), total soil nitrogen (2.1 g kg−1) and exchangeable potassium (328 mg kg−1) was significantly greater (p < .01) than in the upper section. Also, grain yield and biomass of maize, teff, broad bean and sorghum were significantly greater (p < .05) in the lower section. This was particularly true for maize for which the yield in 2018 increased from 0.7 t ha−1 in the upper sections to 2.6 t ha−1 in the lower sections. Optimizing crop yields on terraces requires adaptive fertilizer application and crop choice.

Determinants of Gender Division in Agricultural Works and Agrobiodiversity Management in Nepal

This study was designed to assess the access of Nepalese farmers to the training and extension service, gender division on agricultural work, and factors affecting agrobiodiversity management activities. A total of 2,817 respondents were interviewed at different locations throughout Nepal. The information was collected using the mWater surveyor. Descriptive and inferential analyses were done. The respondents having received training in agriculture were significantly higher among elite, educated, and agricultural households. Access to extension facilities was significantly determined by the type of household, ethnicity, occupation, and education of respondents. Male domination in the choice of crops, land preparation, and seed selection were significantly higher in male-headed households, marginalized groups, and agricultural households. However, females were more likely to be involved in seed sowing. The male domination in male-headed households were significantly higher for applying fertilizers, weeding, irrigation, and pest control. Among elite ethnic groups, domination of males was significantly higher for fertilizer application. The role of the male in agricultural households was significantly higher in all aspects. One unit increase in the area increased the likelihood of male involvement in irrigation by 30%. The males are likely to be more involved in harvesting, sales of products, and control of income. Elite and educated respondents coupled with access to training practiced more crop rotation compared to the rest. The likelihood of practicing intercropping and mixed cropping was influenced by extension facilities and training facilities. Elite groups and farmers with extension facilities tended to practice more agroforestry. So, the types of households, education, and ethnicity have a key role in the gender differentiation in agriculture operation. Moreover, training and extension facilities help a lot in the conservation and practice of agrobiodiversity. There is an urgent need in improving the women's role and overall management of the agricultural landscape.

Dynamics of Customary Land Rights and Its Impact on the Agronomic Choices for Small Farmers in the South Kivu province, Eastern DR Congo

In Africa, there is still observed a land related legal plurality despite innovations undertaken since colonial times. In DR Congo, while by law land remains the property of the State, it remains difficult to manage rural lands, ignoring customary practices. In fact, alongside the “modern” land administration, the majority of rural lands are covered by customary contracts. Meanwhile, these contracts have evolved due to different socio-political issues in the DRC and particularly in its eastern part. This study aimed at understanding these changes and thus the impact resulted in agricultural activities, especially the small farmers’ technology choice. The study is based on households’ surveys in the Mbinga Sud zone as well as from other stakeholders on land in the Kalehe territory, South Kivu province, eastern DRC. Through this study, it is noted that customary land contracts have sufficiently evolved due to the population growth, innovations taken in land administration in the country, the wars that occurred in the eastern DR Congo, the attractiveness of rural land by elites and rich businessmen leading to land concentration etc. Given this situation, some practices such as purchase and lease of land were thus developed to cope with weak customary land acquisition mechanisms, the land scarcity and / or land depletion and the fear of land grabbing by the strongest. These changes also have an impact on some agricultural practices, including the fertilization of farms, the choice of crops and varieties to grow as well as many other cultivation techniques. 
 
 Received: 3 June 2021 / Accepted: 4 September 2021 / Published: 5 November 2021

Increasing multiple cropping for land use intensification: The role of crop choice

Land use intensification increases crop production without reclaiming new cropland from natural ecosystems. In addition to the yield-improving approaches, scientists began to assess the multiple cropping potential as an alternative for intensification. These existing assessments largely focused on the number of multiple cropping frequency (MCF) while ignoring the crop growth duration (GD) required by a complete cropping circle, which may bring uncertainty on the estimates. In this study, we aim to address such uncertainty by comprehensively considering the relation between MCF and GD. Selecting Jinxian county, Jiangxi Province, as a study area, we use time-series remote sensing imageries to observe MCF and GD, and to estimate the region’s annual growing season (GS) by aggregating the crop-specific GDs corresponding to the MCF. We further apply scenario analysis to understand how crop choice. i.e. longer GD v.s. shorter GD, would influence the exploitation of GS and thus the multiple cropping potential. Results show that without considering GD, 33.63% croplands have the potential to harvest another time and 64.84% cropland could have two-extra harvests, which would result in the harvested area increased by + 163.31%. However, if GD is considered, this potential is estimated much lower in overall and is varied greatly across crop selection scenarios. In the most close-to-reality scenario, roughly 40% croplands have no potential to make extra harvest, because the GS in many areas have been largely exploited and the remaining GS is insufficient to sustain another complete crop growth. Our study shows that crop choice plays an important role in measuring and exploiting the multiple cropping potential, which provides implications for China’s “agricultural supply-side structural reform” through sustainable land use intensification.

Prediction of Crop, Fertilizer and Disease Detection for Precision Agriculture

Abstract: The main walk of life of our Country is Agriculture. More than 70 % of the population’s lives depend upon agriculture. It is also a great source of country’s economy. In order to make this filed more profitable for farmers proper crops have to be grown in their fields. The prevalent problem among the farmers is Crop choice depending upon the soil in their farmlands. Another challenge faced by farmers is choosing the right fertilisers for their crops, which plays a very important role in getting a good and profitable yield. There is another major problem which they have to give more attention is the pest control or the diseases to which the plants may limit their growth. The above listed problems may solved using the advanced techniques of Precision Agriculture and data mining. Precision Agriculture is modern technique which can be used for farming. The main objective of is to solve above problems using data mining techniques and build a decision system which would help farmers to choose right crops for their farm , fertiliser recommendation for the crops grown and also to help the farmers in detecting the diseases by using the infected leaf images.. Keywords: Precision Agriculture, Data Mining, Crop, fertilizer recommendation system, ML Algorithms

Learning from the grassroots: The case for the consideration of community-based agrarian and food security reforms in South Africa

Studies of projected agro-climatic variability on the productivity of small-holding farming livelihoods have been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models on country or regional basis but few have been done at the community level. This study explores direct observation of the impact of soil and climate factors on crop and livestock livelihood systems in the three major agro-ecological zones of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. It also analyzed their influence on small farmers’ choices of agrarian livelihood activities and the lessons learned for the suitability of agro-ecologically integrated agriculture as part of agrarian and food security reforms needed among small farming households in rural communities of South Africa. The impact of soil and rainfall on the crop and livestock livelihood choices of small-holders in the three major agro-ecological zones were explored. A cross-sectional survey was carried out among 223 small-holding farming households during the harvesting period of rain-fed farming season. Data on household livelihood activities were processed in monetary terms and subjected to gross margin and cost/benefit analysis. Geographic information system (GIS) mapping and statistical analysis were used to determine the association of small-holder maize revenue with agro-climatic variation. The results indicated that crop-based activities performed better in the Grassland zone, while livestock activities performed better in the Savanna zone. Small farms in the Karoo can only productively engage in livestock production. The results also showed that farming activities that combined more vegetable crops yielded greater profits than other field crops. Furthermore, the results indicate that the mixed cropping method remains one of the strategies for breaking-even and risk-bearing effort used by the small-holder farmers considering its cost-sharing benefits. Geographical information system (GIS) mapping further indicates that small-holders’ farming activity was not only affected by soil-climatic factors but by their management skills as well. We recommend agro-ecologically adapted policies and incentives for agriculture-based livelihood activities and intensified mixing of cropping systems among the small-holder farming households in the study area.

Measuring On-Farm Phosphorus Fertiliser Use—Lessons Learned from Surveying Data of Five Regions in Northern Germany

Phosphorus (P) is essential for agriculture; however, local P surpluses can have adverse environmental effects, such as eutrophication. Optimal P fertiliser use, therefore, means balancing these effects. Although P fluxes from soil to plants are key research areas, little is known about on-farm use of P fertilisers. As, typically, not all fields or crops are treated with P annually, the transferability of measurements for other nutrients, such as nitrogen, appears limited. This study aims to close this knowledge gap. On-farm P use was described using the farm records of 50 farms in five regions of northern Germany for the period of 2010 to 2018. All sources for P fertilisation were taken into account as either P mineral, P organic or P total. Two indicators for on-farm P use were suggested: frequency, which gives the percentage of the treated area, and amount, which gives the quantity used per ha of the treated area. The frequency for P total ranged from 55.9% to 93.1% of the total farm area being fertilised. Amounts between 24.8 and 41.6 kg ha−1 P total were applied on the treated area of the farm. The results supported the separation of the quantity and frequency in on-farm P use. No decrease in P use was found during the period investigated. Using mixed models, the results further show that explanatory variables, including the farm characteristics and crop choice, explain the substantial variations in P use. It is recommended for the example of Germany to establish an official digital database for P fertilisers that can be updated professionally and is mandatory for all documentation on P use.

Integrating gender and farmer's preferences in a discussion support tool for crop choice

CONTEXTIn northern West Bengal and southern Bangladesh, Rabi crops, sown in winter and harvested in the spring, are an important source of income and nutrition for the target communities. In the study areas, NGOs and extension services have been engaging with farming communities on selecting suitable crops for the upcoming season. This engagement took place in the absence of quantitative tools to discuss trade offs and what-if scenarios to support an informed discussion. OBJECTIVEThe objective of this study was to design a crop-choice model to support extension agronomists in engaging with the farming communities more effectively using a quantitative analysis tool. In this process, we explored how agricultural system models can be inclusive and allow participation and eventual application by NGO and government extension agents, using a process of gender sensitive contribution. MethodsThe crop-choice model includes several constraints related to available resources, including land, labour, capital and technologies to calculate optimal crop areas within the Rabi season. The crop choices are determined considering gender specific community perceptions of risks, labour use, market, price-volatility, self-consumption, water use and cash flow. The model was used to explore the consequences of different crop choices on income, gender specific labour, use of inputs and markets, and to reveal the trade-offs of pursuing different crop choice pathways in the context of agricultural intensification. The initial model was demonstrated to the farmers and the extension agents, and based on their reflections, it was fine-tuned further to make the engagement process more effective. For better communication with the participating farmers, the model related questions and findings were translated in the local language (Bengali). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSWe found that the modelling process can be made more inclusive from the outset by including farmers, NGO and extension agents as co-contributors of the model at each of the modelling steps and incorporating their reflections. Such an inclusive and reflective approach provides easy-to-use interfaces and enables translation of model results in ways that more effectively benefit farming communities. The process of engagement with farmers during tool development has been very valuable to farmers and researchers alike and the use of the tool has made the farmers informed about alternative scenarios and led to actual benefits for crop choice decision making. Inclusive farming systems models need to consider the gender dimension and its critical role in farm decision making and how this can be included in models to reflect the diversity of decision process. To maximise relevance of the model for next users and farmers, it was important that these key stakeholders were part of the model development from the beginning, this study has focused on the same throughout. SIGNIFICANCEThis study demonstrated that appropriate design and development principles enabled bioeconomic farming systems models to be used by NGO and government extension agents to engage with farming communities as discussion support tools in farming decisions. Such an approach would make the engagement process more convincing and effective. Besides, it would also provide useful insights to the NGO and extension agents in revising their intervention strategies.

Assessing the food vs. fuel issue: An agent-based simulation

Energy security and environmental concerns are critical issues for North America. The development of the bio-fuel industry has given grain farmers another crop option. Trends towards renewable fuels could also put fuel production at odds with traditional food agriculture, a situation referred to as the “food vs. fuel” debate. This research models profit maximizing farm crop choices as energy crops become a crop option. We develop a simulation to estimate the oil price level where farmers would switch from the production of grain for food over to bio-energy crops. We also investigate consequences associated with this process on the elevator industry.Using a major crop production region in Canada as a template, we estimate that real annual crude oil prices must remain consistently 30% above the (2008) peak oil price before most farmers in the region would switch over to the production of wheat for biofuel. If government biofuel support falls from current levels, a considerably higher oil price would be needed to entice farmers to switch. As the production of food grain decreases, we also observe that the grain handling industry will gradually “shake out” and likely be characterized by much higher elevator firm concentration than exists currently.